A2-LV large create-tx value
Analyst 2 · v3 +60 s, create-tx ETH >= 12.5 from first-time sender · arms A tp10, B tp20, C baseline · paper, $10 a trade, since 10 Oct · idea #638 · updated 13 Oct 06:20 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: testmgr4: fwd A n20 0.86x (1 win 9.3x), outside replay band; hold to fwd n30, then kill if mean<1 & upper80<1.05 (auditor3 12 Oct)
Still open:
- fwd A n=30 mean 0.91x med 0.45x; own kill rule (<1.1x over 30) met -> KILL 13 Oct
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: forward arm A mean < 1.1x over 30 closed. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$26.71
Trades done
30
3 up, 27 down
Best trade
9.3x
Exit rule shown
A
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | 30 | 0.99x | 3 | 1 | 27 | -$3.24 |
| A | 30 | 0.91x | 3 | 0 | 27 | -$26.71 |
| C | 35 | 0.91x | 4 | 0 | 31 | -$30.54 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0x546e0156684b5bf509d593f07c1303e6525aa4dc | 13 Oct 05:47 | $10 | stop | 0.42x (-58.4%) -$5.84 |
| 29 | 0xafdfe59e5698134c3a399c90fe3b55fe17aaa925 | 13 Oct 00:27 | $10 | time | 3.44x (+243.7%) +$24.37 |
| 28 | 0x17579f70b6f7b54db0764b344f63e6296588e838 | 13 Oct 00:02 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.3%) -$5.43 |
| 27 | 0x893bfab2af0c4f0fa900a7cdb82cad9097130687 | 12 Oct 23:45 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.8%) -$5.38 |
| 26 | 0x18c1790bb6f68baef9383553edc3362b69cc502d | 12 Oct 21:12 | $10 | time | 3.12x (+211.8%) +$21.18 |
| 25 | 0x9b3554e6c26e06ebe55a7aec4e86e486379c5f6b | 12 Oct 18:52 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.3%) -$5.43 |
| 24 | 0x00bb17df8548095b2eb77ceab9ccfdff916352be | 12 Oct 18:50 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-55.3%) -$5.53 |
| 23 | 0xcac1414eac15af7a6a5fcc8bd578cbed0f9a4d15 | 12 Oct 17:51 | $10 | stop | 0.43x (-57.4%) -$5.74 |
| 22 | 0xc413db014066964952a9c20aa760ef806073e195 | 12 Oct 17:17 | $10 | stop | 0.44x (-55.9%) -$5.59 |
| 21 | 0xa38e5f7ced70829d987df173d714d66da90c5c61 | 12 Oct 17:11 | $10 | stop | 0.44x (-55.7%) -$5.57 |
| 20 | 0x05f8cb3e5dad85c6acc57bc0c8ff5f44b78ad408 | 12 Oct 16:56 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.1%) -$5.41 |
| 19 | 0x336efc6d509c89c700ff4dbe15828dd83d987a63 | 12 Oct 16:02 | $10 | stop | 0.33x (-67.2%) -$6.72 |
| 18 | 0x0504f58b517948745eba7ece065599e062219ed4 | 12 Oct 15:48 | $10 | stop | 0.43x (-56.9%) -$5.69 |
| 17 | 0x48094f719a58656eec31291e6a0652142c3113aa | 12 Oct 15:47 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-73.8%) -$7.38 |
| 16 | 0x2c3cb57c191d6890576a51582e799083fb34182e | 12 Oct 15:20 | $10 | stop | 0.42x (-57.8%) -$5.78 |
| 15 | 0xf452527396360cbb43cc082435ccc806cea56b17 | 12 Oct 15:06 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.0%) -$5.40 |
| 14 | 0x65ce56038657300a2251c617633f5dc193471e46 | 12 Oct 14:46 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-55.5%) -$5.55 |
| 13 | 0xae5c809317ae309e0871a60c997fa580c7ff0aff | 12 Oct 14:30 | $10 | stop | 0.43x (-56.5%) -$5.65 |
| 12 | 0x449a7e471ebfd47b4f42dad307f40a66e2019f8d | 12 Oct 13:02 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-55.5%) -$5.55 |
| 11 | 0x430251e2e5db816a1ccfc9db708347060fc6cb1a | 12 Oct 09:17 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.7%) -$5.37 |
| 10 | 0xafdcfbaee898665914814d63f2719fef908356cb | 12 Oct 08:27 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.3%) -$5.43 |
| 9 | 0x2912e6522efa87605aa38c2985a7a62cfd422929 | 12 Oct 08:13 | $10 | stop | 0.15x (-84.8%) -$8.48 |
| 8 | 0xa84da3db805362edfb3f6154097b3af92984a772 | 12 Oct 03:36 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-55.1%) -$5.51 |
| 7 | 0xae0e93c0d2c43886b4f840a0675b845c675a88fc | 12 Oct 03:10 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.6%) -$5.36 |
| 6 | 0x967d9148c71fcf6aebaf2c4c79d8dde33e4a5e9d | 10 Oct 19:20 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-54.9%) -$5.49 |
| 5 | 0x36dd4552b6dce71eb775e2c8024e791581d47cad | 10 Oct 12:16 | $10 | tp | 9.30x (+830.0%) +$83.00 |
| 4 | 0xaf05af5d631f7bc81aeb972cd6504a17eec49ac6 | 10 Oct 11:41 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-55.3%) -$5.53 |
| 3 | 0x774859255a2ae34806e2cb3cb10a7d2dd082231a | 10 Oct 10:29 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.0%) -$5.40 |
| 2 | 0xcad356f8f0239c8280a6b06529f33543ec934270 | 10 Oct 09:08 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.3%) -$5.43 |
| 1 | 0x66abb51da419bd1e7169adcf904f3a3bd5939733 | 10 Oct 08:25 | $10 | stop | 0.44x (-56.2%) -$5.62 |
Full Test Manager report
# A2-LV forward paper test (Test Manager) - 12 Oct 23:20 UTC
Hunt: entry +60 s after v3 creation (cap ~700k), create-tx value >= 12.5 ETH from a first-time sender, target 3M-10M+ (A2 #638, fw/a2-iter39.md).
Arms: A = first-time sender, tp10 | B = same, tp20 | C = baseline, any sender, tp10. Stop 0.5, 4 h, 7% slippage, pull=0, skip if est. pool ETH < 8.
- Replay since 6 Oct (create values fetched so far; backlog fills ~200 pools per run): 69 entries
- A: n 62 closed, mean 1.38x, median 0.45x, win 8, tp 6, stop 54, pull 0, time 2
- B: n 62 closed, mean 2.06x, median 0.45x, win 8, tp 4, stop 54, pull 0, time 4
- C: n 69 closed, mean 1.32x, median 0.45x, win 9, tp 6, stop 60, pull 0, time 3
- FORWARD only (pools created from 10 Oct 00:00 UTC): 35 entries
- A: n 30 closed, mean 0.91x, median 0.45x, win 3, tp 1, stop 27, pull 0, time 2
- B: n 30 closed, mean 0.99x, median 0.45x, win 3, tp 0, stop 27, pull 0, time 3
- C: n 35 closed, mean 0.91x, median 0.45x, win 4, tp 1, stop 31, pull 0, time 3
- Skipped: {'rpc fail': 1, 'value<12.5': 1837, 'no tx value yet': 2}; create values cached: 1906 of 1908 pools
- Pass (A2): A mean >= 1.3 over 30 closed; kill < 1.0. About 5.7 qualifying pools a day. A2 replay: tp10 1.37, tp20 1.81 (fat tail, first half below 1: not proven).
- Limits: first-time sender checked against kitb.db (8 days) + cache only; mark-to-print exits; pool ETH estimated as create value + net buys. Only Ben switches live (D-030).