A3-NH1M
seed-25k kit v4 nohook fee-100, buy 300k touch +10s, tp3/3.2 (1M), stop .5 · paper, $10 a trade, since 16 Oct · idea #561 · updated 20 Oct 03:41 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: replay 1.52 (1.05 if unresolved 0.5x); outsider sell depth unmeasured; quiet=last print capped 1.0
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: fwd arm A mean<1.05 at n20 or pulls>15%; decide-by 20 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$554.18
Trades done
70
37 up, 33 down
Best trade
2.8x
Exit rule shown
A
tp3
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 146 trades, mean 1.28x, +$414.54 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B tp3.2 | 70 | 1.82x | 35 | 0 | 35 | +$571.35 |
| A tp3 | 70 | 1.79x | 37 | 0 | 33 | +$554.18 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0x9e3c2afb147b0966be9a76340b1ff6e1c006f0928fa054c57aa257e0ad2a562a | 20 Oct 03:09 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 69 | 0x97ef467b635a60c731576e8367bcd53d4f874859e0fca1fb3db22996a14f0cc4 | 20 Oct 02:09 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 68 | 0x06502e30626af49ad4537b42bf8a4dd83ea4952b7ea381470f9ee85cf98595a3 | 20 Oct 01:04 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-74.0%) -$7.40 |
| 67 | 0x7aec0bddbab72517288e4687e7cb716aa5bf08032175bd4a7428aefe8798175a | 20 Oct 00:31 | $10 | stop | 0.39x (-61.3%) -$6.13 |
| 66 | 0x0cc9070f4af8a1af44976199f27ca372ffc296613bc15bcb1153a788dbac3dc2 | 19 Oct 22:48 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 65 | 0xb5cbdce91efd7e3c258fa17d92050ef542c0002038af433bd1e90634dce6b6ba | 19 Oct 22:44 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 64 | 0x7c4761c6b81ae5a4376de626550b2aaaf9421c675e472c19b94954baa0f88149 | 19 Oct 21:49 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 63 | 0xf4b55dcbd5660f8044d3951d86ba68176adb22dab4e8691c42ebf45acdc95409 | 19 Oct 21:10 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 62 | 0x37b24fc84dc2337218e484b7ed7f98338c53053da4ac35cbcd6d977f069085a7 | 19 Oct 21:01 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 61 | 0x0c5d8c33252cd9d5c378075b63eff862f046a338ac072f8d4e08b0732e47c65b | 19 Oct 19:32 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 60 | 0x348668df8d5550f017f4d6dccf2ad1fc1032d72244b051c7804644dcc2e45382 | 19 Oct 18:43 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.7%) -$5.37 |
| 59 | 0x15acbac0051864472823af4fb68146a922fc121917bbb5589ba51beb0b89aa53 | 19 Oct 17:33 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 58 | 0x47f02ed88bec16588fb0ef979db9a65336c835a6fabcc7eeeb23944498844463 | 19 Oct 17:04 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 57 | 0xcb55618f56b62ab9b358ede9dc926684f7d6139e266634125aed94e729f0a1aa | 19 Oct 16:38 | $10 | stop | 0.15x (-85.2%) -$8.52 |
| 56 | 0x4d0099fd265cebe4a698db795ab6e36d098177da6bd2a5d72f5e3ce2d4df35d2 | 19 Oct 12:17 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.2%) -$5.32 |
| 55 | 0xe0bf94299aa4e1952a0130ec88062d4502533e2ce210a6b0ff22067386498fc2 | 19 Oct 11:22 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 54 | 0xeca49d10868e52e750c86cc75a01464381133d3a8e71992aa6518d8846ea5c86 | 19 Oct 10:12 | $10 | stop | 0.42x (-58.4%) -$5.84 |
| 53 | 0x58c90d3d03bba6e700a7de88e039fff8fa476015ccbb3db5a0c3dcf8df3973bf | 19 Oct 08:28 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 52 | 0x8eea2d0e21934d95701ae5ac0a92e5ae236942662979d1115bb62670193da76b | 19 Oct 07:40 | $10 | stop | 0.44x (-56.0%) -$5.60 |
| 51 | 0xc99a473b02a4e14c71640a366a0ae6c293d5c67610aaf2bc12bbce13e25a91c4 | 19 Oct 07:17 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 50 | 0xa9102e9db416a2b161ea136147f32370f84e60839e4a0a52b19cff955431f0d1 | 19 Oct 05:37 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 49 | 0xaf82d0d41f26c27b80bf9e2d98682b4788aa3e2b50acbdfebff8dc7d884a2797 | 19 Oct 05:31 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 48 | 0x5a05bd3fc930f28c57646cbb22b111771fe9485c9a367f5c4a63e9318d8ead4e | 19 Oct 05:14 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 47 | 0x53f86b65b49960c6ed131b73dfb3a6edba8353e1af92b560de7398c6ae061751 | 19 Oct 04:05 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 46 | 0x831e82d30961f2ac44594f49e2a5273e098d4781ea10cf811634c25b04d94035 | 19 Oct 03:51 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 45 | 0x91c5b1b3c5bf831ef2307e38f3a49489c2434aded5b36c8c3bdce5a0e3aed446 | 19 Oct 02:28 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 44 | 0x35dd92d0e744b4607420452cd5138292f258c10916c33b8c106bd136a53c0723 | 19 Oct 00:43 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 43 | 0xbc2a3323105c1004971f0fd1466277109c6ef5221592772fe66322d4cbce9923 | 19 Oct 00:15 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 42 | 0xa984a01f0da40424d21ac15d458093b84621b9f1ddb60ae9a28a985aae8c62e7 | 18 Oct 23:10 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 41 | 0xe9ef7151b07d7f24fe8ed9ff89fdd1bec61c41eccf25cf9bece55061b0eceef4 | 18 Oct 22:57 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 40 | 0x4e8b22a0c42e120b142b2a367ce2c62f5492fcd916160ece24b395f51afacee6 | 18 Oct 21:12 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 39 | 0xdad0201c2fe8290fbd96ead3318eb8f89ea974a0f32dc9798e2b70a644a9cd1a | 18 Oct 20:11 | $10 | quiet | 0.63x (-37.2%) -$3.72 |
| 38 | 0x92db2871afa8bbaba4e04e206519380cf96371dc51e9b048554221615b3f2bf5 | 18 Oct 19:32 | $10 | stop | 0.14x (-85.5%) -$8.55 |
| 37 | 0x49b5a3ee3b5f315715cb711366f21c70c6c4b9b18cfd7d5e88b858a6dd598e87 | 18 Oct 17:11 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 36 | 0x8aa403e8212c9a5d54d7b5b3a0ffe3fcc51e10832bf8208da70b458fa6a6dc08 | 18 Oct 17:09 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 35 | 0x4b09e19c70cf43c5a484a1040745b1cbf269c96e7befb512e23bd1ed82cbab2b | 18 Oct 15:58 | $10 | stop | 0.44x (-56.0%) -$5.60 |
| 34 | 0x233eac8ffa6fdc21867be803c16de339be7c2c819795f4d1f5b3797fd1544cd8 | 18 Oct 15:24 | $10 | quiet | 0.73x (-27.1%) -$2.71 |
| 33 | 0xf155b9d0171d3d9f0e541d7898b76ac71b9bb2cee60655f3e69651b07862263f | 18 Oct 12:21 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 32 | 0xa2a813074a9086402d7cdc02674acdb4998eca7296b721f34439188f731f2656 | 18 Oct 09:43 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 31 | 0x8dffdbb955afe65e0b4438cfb0d09514cfae83d0e8574fb5b5a07c02792d8095 | 18 Oct 08:50 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 30 | 0xdc0afa40338bbae3c2d09194831d1def3a837f62c7b0dfd62a977342e0ca8f1a | 18 Oct 07:19 | $10 | stop | 0.09x (-91.4%) -$9.14 |
| 29 | 0x0f744dbd77fcd7f2d6450b3d7f6e444b5babf7155ccfd931d1793a00ce18d120 | 18 Oct 06:16 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 28 | 0x0f63868296496f6d96f5f0983ad9d1e7000a2c07fb35d52131aa7db77f0691cc | 18 Oct 05:48 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 27 | 0x1699d4950a7b842be9c1a8205b027543297c10aa6556bfa89b5e13083e26af83 | 18 Oct 02:43 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 26 | 0x959d10153b88029b85fe85975a50dd286272877bc8ee0c58ea5049764806ebe8 | 18 Oct 01:27 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 25 | 0x865f8ee562da02d880393910a1e71fbac8f2f79d8f671ae326e3d9e7b7ce1738 | 18 Oct 00:49 | $10 | quiet | 0.84x (-16.4%) -$1.64 |
| 24 | 0x24333c6371e510ffb4f4eeca79168039fba9ee3d547faa4b1c5e496639279f8e | 18 Oct 00:20 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 23 | 0x3e808ff92042636fb8efe9eb603352fa47df0891f0d31d513a2dc13853409cfd | 18 Oct 00:14 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.5%) -$5.45 |
| 22 | 0xc57f419446fe8e584316e4f18c9c1b6f9cafc52045332bc1a68c8d7c998b4eed | 17 Oct 23:10 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 21 | 0x3953623e2143aa63aa9aa6fb70af6c9bfdd84a21bc28fa3e5261e256dd819ae9 | 17 Oct 21:48 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 20 | 0xb32c23f61517b01a34fa18be34c86ed1df313b59e6a84d928f3d4b32788229f7 | 17 Oct 19:17 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 19 | 0xff11420072a16cbef17dc3d9836d244e030f74fc782328b2b8ebf8531fecfc26 | 17 Oct 19:17 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 18 | 0x434e3cb2b9cc83e126187c981309ad0618da7dce39619a31dc8bc492b53f0850 | 17 Oct 16:20 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 17 | 0x977054e08b8f24c6fd15cd6b795e035207b95196ac12fa673e8a363019974204 | 17 Oct 14:47 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 16 | 0x1599aba37f3aed99b7557a1d52aa2722a2ba5658d84b7ae9692fc83571df153c | 17 Oct 11:01 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 15 | 0x2a06cbe936daac510d4ce4c652961f6d4b872f55373be85332a5f2a443c98605 | 17 Oct 10:41 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 14 | 0x108e1e49ba6717c42f8449b1e45c7db0315b0e24abce2ea07653cf6c23984b8a | 17 Oct 09:09 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 13 | 0x0a060424dac6b2fa409e0d432a0e57268226a714ff006781dfb42c0d2d330216 | 17 Oct 08:56 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.7%) -$5.37 |
| 12 | 0x5db80c1ba3d99e3c0f4483a7d1c4169ffb41d22adb3f80c033afedfecdfab2c3 | 17 Oct 06:39 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 11 | 0xfd0c786fc379dcec1fbfc9d115e08bd1a9dc34b6ce74fc311d5925eb031771e2 | 17 Oct 04:26 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 10 | 0x714dee2654b9dbf27201ecdd0e1880ef57145d5edcc56188881cfb3e87ec33a9 | 17 Oct 03:51 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.3%) -$5.43 |
| 9 | 0x29959b8e875ed3fc69b49de0bc290f10b2164c9269164947e2b9aed978601f56 | 17 Oct 03:47 | $10 | quiet | 0.61x (-38.5%) -$3.85 |
| 8 | 0x6ecbe0de5455e7be71110a0dd75fb6b4aa5d2099ecb952aef74b53d61c9cf70b | 17 Oct 02:51 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 7 | 0x5c1342b9499a221e2bc157a209aacea7249744cf07d64c8d62e0178cf545145c | 17 Oct 00:14 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 6 | 0xa0bcf08110261f8f4914e649fa3f386af7d92eb0aff09db15a215c0a73ef8f43 | 16 Oct 09:25 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 5 | 0x039c1f87349f4e88a550019621116571bc647bcca4b2d8c85959e76da9f84934 | 16 Oct 08:33 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 4 | 0x887893443049674b9793dc049a459df54d76ac9fe2c8e9c8dd646f048f11e07f | 16 Oct 08:00 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 3 | 0xb5d3ece10aa260b3bd4c6dc60f2b9d0571be29074b3fb20e67068d4674203ae2 | 16 Oct 07:18 | $10 | stop | 0.39x (-60.6%) -$6.06 |
| 2 | 0x665453e646805552c6bca9522b5881435de882bfb13f27221de8504a5c8007ca | 16 Oct 07:05 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 1 | 0x2f0075deac4b383b565a363cd73b468836d6999f402175209940819a98978d29 | 16 Oct 03:27 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
Full Test Manager report
# A3-NH1M: seed-25k kit, buy 300k touch, tp3-3.2 stop .5 (ledger 561) forward paper test (Test Manager) - 19 Oct 20:41 UTC
Spec: analyst3/a3-nohook100-tape-10oct.md. Feed v4tape forward only. Hunt: 2.5-3x flip from 300k (not a runner catcher). Stop 0.5x, 4 h, fee + 3% slip each side, pull = 0, quiet pool = last print capped at 1.0. Jump = touch price >=1.5x previous swap (skipped).
- No-hook fee-100 pools in tape: 1747; with supply 1483; waiting 1345; open (arm legs) 2; skipped {'not seed-25k kit': 224, 'no supply': 23, 'jump': 11}
- arm A (tp3): on time n 35, mean 1.40x, <1x 25, tp 10, pull 0, quiet 22 | late (excluded) n 108, mean 1.58x, <1x 64, tp 44, pull 1, quiet 46
- arm B (tp3.2): on time n 35, mean 1.38x, <1x 26, tp 9, pull 0, quiet 22 | late (excluded) n 108, mean 1.59x, <1x 67, tp 41, pull 1, quiet 48
- Kill: fwd arm A mean < 1.05 at n20 or pulls > 15%. Replay: tp2.5 1.35x, tp3 1.30x, pulls 1%. Caveat: outsider sell depth unproven; cap uses a stale ETHUSD.