A2-NONCE2
v4 fee-100 unhooked creator nonce==2, +60 s, tp3/tp5 sl.5 (runner: u100lab) · paper, $10 a trade, since 16 Oct · idea #17 · updated 17 Oct 00:40 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: shared runner /root/tm/u100lab/lab.py (cron 10 min); my duplicate script retired 16 Oct
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: N2 mean<1.0 at n30; decide-by 20 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$105.93
Trades done
20
3 up, 17 down
Best trade
2.8x
Exit rule shown
A
tp3
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 656 trades, mean 1.02x, +$110.36 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A tp3 | 20 | 0.47x | 3 | 0 | 17 | -$105.93 |
| B tp5 | 20 | 0.05x | 0 | 0 | 20 | -$190.59 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0xad3f5a5d7d889c293ebcc0970995e6bcd11070ff83d040cfdb37ff0d03983b6c | 17 Oct 00:06 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 19 | 0x5cdd44a13824bb0b909f8e57edde886020a3acc3940cf6e524a4c8089eddee36 | 16 Oct 23:53 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 18 | 0x1ac84ec7607ac5e327ef91ec636d1e4911e313f27ce711348a7a2036b02541ef | 16 Oct 23:44 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 17 | 0x626a9cbd9007400cad88fc5df9e7b5a166f523a468ec27b18a767bb954dfc4d9 | 16 Oct 23:30 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 16 | 0xd48856b9518f3d82f551037b2fd04c35dec240face44a2d97da35d7dd0bcc7fc | 16 Oct 23:12 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 15 | 0xee7949dd90884663dc91df58100e0ddf25df6767f7c34aadf0bd0f77835fa0fb | 16 Oct 23:06 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 14 | 0x5efdbcc16a5ca7d39461fe11bd71353946410463c170b29b751bbcc36a97702a | 16 Oct 22:47 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 13 | 0xe7470fef627baf43555fc80c9f64ee4778a332dcb67c99c5e482149b81d4086a | 16 Oct 22:33 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 12 | 0xa955151b8d164c471db931041e0d1025943224276d321d5ec6068f85e3d6b11b | 16 Oct 21:33 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 11 | 0x5ff642570d5f5820dc5846d6108b377f5ec46dd4df3f932263b6abbc29a9b8ac | 16 Oct 20:10 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 10 | 0xdee24c40f3d30096eb756a850028bc341974a69ce04976567dccbf957fcb65a1 | 16 Oct 20:08 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 9 | 0x983bfdeb79e4246ecb78810865aa7ae2048be7d63d9da1412573c7cd03baa3b3 | 16 Oct 18:20 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 8 | 0x84006fa3436536168a0b35abd1b59b7cdc18b892bf8140dd7b030ca2c3bcb2d9 | 16 Oct 18:03 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 7 | 0x1d1912e6a2bc2f6632e17e4000360acbd4d65c102c6bbe3cb44d225663256644 | 16 Oct 17:00 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 6 | 0x09bc98d13443771f5be525725a1bb792eb0d3062dcf948030f924e519ead9573 | 16 Oct 15:32 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 5 | 0x588d8104fb30c3e1f13da7b4c2df6ba643f5fd3bd1fe58d4287254754188ff53 | 16 Oct 14:29 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 4 | 0x0541400d59a1a7ac9ab60f4891c32f05f042d6cd539e6eb378e91b765dff377a | 16 Oct 12:52 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 3 | 0xbc4f7c464b0d4ed8497446d95a86872051926c061b3ade5fd2a8de15d9b84aa6 | 16 Oct 12:24 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 2 | 0x571800cdcb8093f0ecff16b1daa551683431620af2884a50637796e400965fb3 | 16 Oct 10:35 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 1 | 0xcd25cc36a82448f77a8bca5f4d47ca6fd7fdf58eeb66b1079089e1ad3f1fa5d6 | 16 Oct 10:33 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
Full Test Manager report
# nonce2 paper test (u100lab, testmgr3) - 16 Oct 17:40 UTC
See /root/tm/u100lab/lab.py docstring. Open legs 4; skips {'nonce!=2': 578, 'waiting': 283}
- arm A (tp3) fwd: n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, tp 0, pull 0, quiet 0
- arm A (tp3) replay (tape since 6 Oct): n 168, mean 1.01x, <1x 111, tp 57, pull 100, quiet 7
- arm B (tp5) fwd: n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, tp 0, pull 0, quiet 0
- arm B (tp5) replay (tape since 6 Oct): n 168, mean 1.00x, <1x 137, tp 31, pull 111, quiet 21