V3 P204 new pools
Analyst 2 · nightly replay · 5x exit · paper, $10 a trade, since 08 Oct · idea #47 · updated 11 Oct 02:41 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
The Test Manager has not yet confirmed:
- KILL 11 Oct (auditor3): sale lock 'salg spaerret' 12/12 tokens, one sell recipient per pool; see audit-p204.md
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: < 1.3x over 100 trades. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$449.96
Trades done
12
12 up, 0 down
Best trade
5.0x
Exit rule shown
5x
sell at 5x target
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule 5x, numbered in time order.
Every trade (exit rule 5x)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0xb3831803b5cf7c2dd28e07afaa2d4a8199507f4f | 10 Oct 22:33 | $10 | target · cap $7k → $34k | 4.74x (+373.9%) +$37.39 |
| 11 | 0xe91318ad3d29b6dedcf46bdcf67d4d020ad05535 | 10 Oct 17:19 | $10 | target · cap $6k → $28k | 4.65x (+364.8%) +$36.48 |
| 10 | 0x6a620dfa1119d2a671aedd19ae7cef43f8a9fa00 | 10 Oct 08:04 | $10 | target · cap $7k → $37k | 4.96x (+396.0%) +$39.60 |
| 9 | 0x7abda77b593488d5d2320a0737444d189da56d4d | 09 Oct 21:38 | $10 | target · cap $6k → $28k | 4.64x (+364.2%) +$36.42 |
| 8 | 0x419349131d253e21f9382447b726c64ee2785d41 | 09 Oct 19:57 | $10 | target · cap $5k → $23k | 4.65x (+364.6%) +$36.46 |
| 7 | 0xb695bc228303622805715a50193ff8cacf9da13b | 09 Oct 18:25 | $10 | target · cap $7k → $35k | 4.77x (+377.3%) +$37.73 |
| 6 | 0xe75fa02e71224ba8f8b76658c08f53b7b24a1ce1 | 09 Oct 16:20 | $10 | target · cap $6k → $27k | 4.91x (+391.5%) +$39.15 |
| 5 | 0x22314bdbd5284a9e2dbd0d17d2a4b649cd3ff725 | 09 Oct 09:28 | $10 | target · cap $7k → $32k | 4.71x (+371.2%) +$37.12 |
| 4 | 0x71c1d743bdbf860c31a26a1705e6b269438b1adb | 09 Oct 07:04 | $10 | target · cap $6k → $27k | 4.79x (+379.0%) +$37.90 |
| 3 | 0xc6be2197d31821f556cf79e6fb69d54b99277554 | 09 Oct 00:29 | $10 | target · cap $5k → $24k | 4.54x (+353.5%) +$35.35 |
| 2 | 0x1ef3436ef17682a3e8a9bee633d675dda4eeb7b5 | 08 Oct 23:06 | $10 | target · cap $6k → $30k | 4.77x (+376.8%) +$37.68 |
| 1 | 0x3a2fefe4c1e73b65dddf09f1b0f30f69d9b7cfb1 | 08 Oct 20:16 | $10 | target · cap $7k → $33k | 4.87x (+386.9%) +$38.69 |
Full Test Manager report
# A2-V3P204 paper test (forward, Test Manager) Made 11 Oct 02:41 Bangkok. Paper replay of pools born since 8 Oct 13:00 (after the A2 backtest), same harness/fills as all tests: bt.py tick walk, 1% each way + gas, $50. Numbers are tickets (+1.0 = $50). Pools matched so far: 250. | arm | trades | wins | net tickets | w/o top 3 | worst | TP hits | 10-loss-streak | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 5x | 15 | 13 | +44.5 | +32.8 | 0.00x | 12 | 1 | | 3x | 15 | 13 | +22.9 | +16.8 | 0.00x | 13 | 1 | | 5x500 | 15 | 13 | +23.5 | +16.9 | 0.00x | 12 | 1 | | 3x500 | 15 | 13 | +12.5 | +8.9 | 0.00x | 13 | 1 | Kill rule (A1): paper mean < 1.3x or below dumb baseline 1.22x over 100 trades. 5x arm now: 15 trades, mean 3.97x. keep running 5x exits and their real fill x: exits5.csv (12 so far). A fill well under 5x on these means the 5x arm is optimistic; compare with the 3x arm. Ready for live only after 2 profitable days with no bugs and enough trades (Ben's rule); only Ben switches (D-030).