A2-PERBLK
v4 fee100 nohook, swaps/block>=1.25 in first 60s and <=3 new pools in 30m, buy +60s tp3/tp5 sl.5 · paper, $10 a trade, since 16 Oct · idea #14 · updated 20 Oct 07:02 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: auditor3 17 Oct: unverified. Wait fwd A n>=40 (now 20, 1.06x vs replay 1.45x); sell sim on 20+ pools (testmgr3, run at n40); lab.py cron 10 min
Still open:
- 19 Oct auditor3: fwd A n40 1.26x lo80 0.99 ex3 1.14, rebuild 17/17, outside sellers only 3/17 at tp, sell sim owed; re-audit n>=60
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: fwd arm A mean<1.1 at n60 (analyst); decide-by 21 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$100.41
Trades done
49
20 up, 29 down
Best trade
2.8x
Exit rule shown
A
tp3
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 260 trades, mean 1.50x, +$1313.53 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B tp5 | 49 | 1.49x | 15 | 0 | 34 | +$241.61 |
| A tp3 | 49 | 1.21x | 20 | 0 | 29 | +$100.41 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0x7249014d30cdffb805c31e4bfd8ad7d9e298786dae6cbbc646f428e33ecc46be | 20 Oct 04:33 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 48 | 0xbc16fd94a2121d3bcc8b8fb455c0f025baeeb67bc73a32ebe02f0191b523bec8 | 20 Oct 03:57 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 47 | 0x24b0166a62194c9782a85c009fd9143d3bf2d2d5920cc9ff290e5e4c4a014f19 | 20 Oct 03:51 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 46 | 0xc72f0df7f871d0e0415147d849b9444b00f6a5c8ea545bb83229e173b80e01a4 | 20 Oct 03:45 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 45 | 0xacc4b96267f1d69dde1833834540261764cc4c120799de93b2093f2eca07eecb | 20 Oct 01:00 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 44 | 0x8455e729d3f667f54e88ba9c20e036de84268a6a5eaf15525bae5a3ed9f11673 | 20 Oct 00:53 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 43 | 0x1d951b8991ec367ebec1526bcabde6207450ea7b2748c63de6ba93ec0aa6ec81 | 20 Oct 00:19 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 42 | 0x0cc9070f4af8a1af44976199f27ca372ffc296613bc15bcb1153a788dbac3dc2 | 19 Oct 21:56 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 41 | 0x7c4761c6b81ae5a4376de626550b2aaaf9421c675e472c19b94954baa0f88149 | 19 Oct 20:28 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 40 | 0x37b24fc84dc2337218e484b7ed7f98338c53053da4ac35cbcd6d977f069085a7 | 19 Oct 20:21 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 39 | 0x348668df8d5550f017f4d6dccf2ad1fc1032d72244b051c7804644dcc2e45382 | 19 Oct 18:33 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 38 | 0xcb55618f56b62ab9b358ede9dc926684f7d6139e266634125aed94e729f0a1aa | 19 Oct 16:38 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-71.6%) -$7.16 |
| 37 | 0x15acbac0051864472823af4fb68146a922fc121917bbb5589ba51beb0b89aa53 | 19 Oct 16:24 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 36 | 0x094714e58df89a5258cc47e089b4d54ea889a04bf6efcde2e09887bded600e7e | 19 Oct 12:43 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 35 | 0x29c918be1fc6ec3d3796ab734b979bbb5e33d4bbf24cf991f3d6ad3163c8cb17 | 19 Oct 12:37 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 34 | 0x10e6394e8361ef44ddf19f8a858ebadf61ed74b2c671f3e22ce48c99813b0e20 | 19 Oct 01:24 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 33 | 0x42ea3a4ea23ddf83509527b438d26ffdb5f3e9ccc7a9abaad4ad775a85f7f4c0 | 19 Oct 01:15 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 32 | 0xbc2a3323105c1004971f0fd1466277109c6ef5221592772fe66322d4cbce9923 | 18 Oct 23:20 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 31 | 0xf5b4e87b85eea8a7fe62a5074f352467c191986c35a4d1e72fe9d4529c6cb64a | 18 Oct 19:07 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 30 | 0x76b1d08a3eaccf53f8c0a27ee4e6560ea72fd524f53c2013a5fbea1aad5104b5 | 18 Oct 15:14 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 29 | 0xb7478276bf1bcf44aff35b793a1035c6bdbf39d4c0f471fff98aa98962b3c4c4 | 18 Oct 11:11 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 28 | 0xa2a813074a9086402d7cdc02674acdb4998eca7296b721f34439188f731f2656 | 18 Oct 09:07 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 27 | 0xdc0afa40338bbae3c2d09194831d1def3a837f62c7b0dfd62a977342e0ca8f1a | 18 Oct 06:08 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 26 | 0x0f0f8d6237a2bb71b31c2ac78595531b13c9acb574a022af274fd96b979b42fd | 18 Oct 04:15 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 25 | 0x9f284eb1df912bc41b2091890850cb51d28e8cc6663dd507a57f42b3e176dd58 | 18 Oct 04:10 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 24 | 0xcd591addf18c427c83788c3bd8198c762cd5ae70cfba9c2aba6c14aefd1c2a60 | 18 Oct 04:07 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 23 | 0x1699d4950a7b842be9c1a8205b027543297c10aa6556bfa89b5e13083e26af83 | 18 Oct 01:32 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 22 | 0x70aed0877fbe79fb2f43e9f2172034ae57b7833a7f0cc652d4f520c585e67471 | 18 Oct 01:29 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 21 | 0x3e808ff92042636fb8efe9eb603352fa47df0891f0d31d513a2dc13853409cfd | 17 Oct 23:06 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 20 | 0x932590e2a5cc4b8d5df670b027ec1173e414e5c30d817ea65674d0919c8a5088 | 17 Oct 20:07 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 19 | 0xb32c23f61517b01a34fa18be34c86ed1df313b59e6a84d928f3d4b32788229f7 | 17 Oct 17:49 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 18 | 0x5884b0054886ec1f9a3857ae842c0da7b53953e2d19f0f3c6c161d8c7c745f3c | 17 Oct 17:02 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 17 | 0xff11420072a16cbef17dc3d9836d244e030f74fc782328b2b8ebf8531fecfc26 | 17 Oct 16:36 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 16 | 0x3f139deb9d68147eca10306b028c122a74e8376af3defcd1d91e4d41174d13fa | 17 Oct 13:31 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 15 | 0xf02551b8a394c952c78928e6b6f5bc26e942fb6bd4ef7a9a76adc25fef87e9fb | 17 Oct 09:46 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 14 | 0x0a060424dac6b2fa409e0d432a0e57268226a714ff006781dfb42c0d2d330216 | 17 Oct 08:55 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 13 | 0x3bfc884868dc34e475aaacc8bc2745e6f852a9d455e0d1984e948eb9a9a2c501 | 17 Oct 02:55 | $10 | stop | 0.43x (-56.5%) -$5.65 |
| 12 | 0x6ecbe0de5455e7be71110a0dd75fb6b4aa5d2099ecb952aef74b53d61c9cf70b | 17 Oct 00:38 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 11 | 0x5c1342b9499a221e2bc157a209aacea7249744cf07d64c8d62e0178cf545145c | 16 Oct 22:35 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 10 | 0x48c730bb5772cf7dc347e55607375f007eb3c5b620302f57dd19708132c008a0 | 16 Oct 21:42 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 9 | 0x5ff642570d5f5820dc5846d6108b377f5ec46dd4df3f932263b6abbc29a9b8ac | 16 Oct 20:10 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 8 | 0xdee24c40f3d30096eb756a850028bc341974a69ce04976567dccbf957fcb65a1 | 16 Oct 20:08 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 7 | 0xc7b6087f92e9d8c082f777f5c47f14ae715b6f158abb6becd1866536859e8c54 | 16 Oct 19:45 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 6 | 0x5614daa46775f30773278404585400eb09d161111421448b25c8cb7ac1048ca8 | 16 Oct 18:18 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 5 | 0x1d1912e6a2bc2f6632e17e4000360acbd4d65c102c6bbe3cb44d225663256644 | 16 Oct 17:00 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 4 | 0x4d5c67fe93a56b2e1e295eda5a89eadac3b4305f0c13d353bbd4c6f89f2fd8d5 | 16 Oct 15:42 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 3 | 0xd601edd3d5100bc84a6d5e8f6b24a2fffb89d4a2fc059b6734154de6286d8cce | 16 Oct 15:39 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 2 | 0x09bc98d13443771f5be525725a1bb792eb0d3062dcf948030f924e519ead9573 | 16 Oct 15:32 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 1 | 0x588d8104fb30c3e1f13da7b4c2df6ba643f5fd3bd1fe58d4287254754188ff53 | 16 Oct 14:29 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
Full Test Manager report
# perblk paper test (u100lab, testmgr3) - 20 Oct 00:02 UTC
See /root/tm/u100lab/lab.py docstring. Open legs 0; skips {'perblk<1.25': 1150, '>3 new pools in 30m': 374, 'waiting': 62}
- arm A (tp3) fwd: n 10, mean 1.20x, <1x 6, tp 4, pull 4, quiet 0
- arm A (tp3) replay (tape since 6 Oct): n 69, mean 1.39x, <1x 40, tp 29, pull 25, quiet 15
- arm B (tp5) fwd: n 10, mean 1.01x, <1x 8, tp 2, pull 6, quiet 0
- arm B (tp5) replay (tape since 6 Oct): n 69, mean 1.71x, <1x 48, tp 21, pull 27, quiet 20