A3-SEED first-print cap
Analyst 3 · mc5 band, seed cap <7.8k and 5-min vol >= 49k · arms S, L, B · paper, $10 a trade, since 10 Oct · idea #621 · updated 13 Oct 07:50 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: Auditor 12 Oct: NOT VERIFIED. Closed S n31 = 27 replay (1.20x) + 4 forward (0.55x). Need forward n>=15, then re-audit; kill if forward mean <1.0 at n=15. Edge = 5 identical 4.65x TP hits of 31. Owner testmgr
Still open:
- Threshold fitted in-sample
- Fill depth at entry not audited
- Replay n 58 vs A3's 290: data window differs
- Replay leg audited 10 Oct: no look-ahead, seed robust (1.25x minus top5), a1mc BASE 0.95x minus top10; still forward n28, sellability open: fw/audit-seed-a1mc-replay.md
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: forward arm S mean < 1.1x over 30 closed. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$98.02
Trades done
17
0 up, 17 down
Best trade
0.9x
Exit rule shown
S
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 106 trades, mean 1.15x, +$158.88 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule S, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | 17 | 0.42x | 0 | 0 | 17 | -$98.02 |
| L | 17 | 0.42x | 0 | 0 | 17 | -$98.02 |
| B | 39 | 0.56x | 1 | 0 | 38 | -$172.79 |
Every trade (exit rule S)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0xcac1414eac15af7a6a5fcc8bd578cbed0f9a4d15 | 12 Oct 17:55 | $10 | stop | 0.43x (-57.3%) -$5.73 |
| 16 | 0xc413db014066964952a9c20aa760ef806073e195 | 12 Oct 17:21 | $10 | stop | 0.41x (-59.3%) -$5.93 |
| 15 | 0x336efc6d509c89c700ff4dbe15828dd83d987a63 | 12 Oct 16:07 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.9%) -$5.39 |
| 14 | 0x0504f58b517948745eba7ece065599e062219ed4 | 12 Oct 15:52 | $10 | stop | 0.43x (-57.0%) -$5.70 |
| 13 | 0x48094f719a58656eec31291e6a0652142c3113aa | 12 Oct 15:51 | $10 | stop | 0.25x (-75.2%) -$7.52 |
| 12 | 0x2c3cb57c191d6890576a51582e799083fb34182e | 12 Oct 15:24 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-74.2%) -$7.42 |
| 11 | 0xf452527396360cbb43cc082435ccc806cea56b17 | 12 Oct 15:10 | $10 | stop | 0.44x (-55.6%) -$5.56 |
| 10 | 0x65ce56038657300a2251c617633f5dc193471e46 | 12 Oct 14:50 | $10 | stop | 0.41x (-59.2%) -$5.92 |
| 9 | 0xae5c809317ae309e0871a60c997fa580c7ff0aff | 12 Oct 14:33 | $10 | stop | 0.42x (-57.7%) -$5.77 |
| 8 | 0x449a7e471ebfd47b4f42dad307f40a66e2019f8d | 12 Oct 13:06 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.6%) -$5.36 |
| 7 | 0x430251e2e5db816a1ccfc9db708347060fc6cb1a | 12 Oct 09:21 | $10 | stop | 0.40x (-60.0%) -$6.00 |
| 6 | 0xafdcfbaee898665914814d63f2719fef908356cb | 12 Oct 08:32 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-54.6%) -$5.46 |
| 5 | 0x2912e6522efa87605aa38c2985a7a62cfd422929 | 12 Oct 08:17 | $10 | stop | 0.16x (-84.4%) -$8.44 |
| 4 | 0xa84da3db805362edfb3f6154097b3af92984a772 | 12 Oct 03:40 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.9%) -$5.39 |
| 3 | 0xae0e93c0d2c43886b4f840a0675b845c675a88fc | 12 Oct 03:13 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.8%) -$5.38 |
| 2 | 0x4ad68babd3a973c00329b690d7678a6c71289703 | 11 Oct 00:04 | $10 | time | 0.85x (-14.8%) -$1.48 |
| 1 | 0x66abb51da419bd1e7169adcf904f3a3bd5939733 | 10 Oct 08:29 | $10 | stop | 0.44x (-55.7%) -$5.57 |
Full Test Manager report
# A3-SEED forward paper test (Test Manager) - 13 Oct 00:50 UTC
Hunt: entry +305 s, cap 300k-1M at +300 s (v3), target 5M+; filter = seed (first print) cap < 7.8k and 5-min vol >= $49k (A3 #621, fw/a3-iter-10oct-i.md).
Arms: S = seed<7.8k AND vol5>=49k | L = seed<7.8k only | B = every band pool (baseline). tp5 sl.5 4 h, 7% slippage, pull=0.
- Replay since 6 Oct (in-sample, threshold fitted by A3): 91 band entries
- S: n 44 closed, mean 0.90x, median 0.45x, win 5, hit5 5, stop 38, pull 0, time 1
- L: n 44 closed, mean 0.90x, median 0.45x, win 5, hit5 5, stop 38, pull 0, time 1
- B: n 91 closed, mean 0.87x, median 0.45x, win 9, hit5 9, stop 64, pull 5, time 13
- FORWARD only (pools created from 10 Oct 00:00 UTC): 39 band entries
- S: n 17 closed, mean 0.42x, median 0.43x, win 0, hit5 0, stop 16, pull 0, time 1
- L: n 17 closed, mean 0.42x, median 0.43x, win 0, hit5 0, stop 16, pull 0, time 1
- B: n 39 closed, mean 0.56x, median 0.44x, win 1, hit5 1, stop 29, pull 3, time 6
- Skipped: {'cap300 outside 300k-1M': 1704, 'no swaps by 300 s': 112, 'no swap after +305 s yet': 4}
- Kill (A3): forward arm S mean < 1.1 over 30 closed. A3 sim: S 1.43 (n 136), rest 0.82. Threshold in-sample: expect lower forward.
- Limits: mark-to-print exits; entry fill depth not audited. Only Ben switches live (D-030).