A3-SERIAL skip serial launchers

Waiting for: n 49 closed (arm A), columns fixed 11 Oct; need 40 on arm A to read kill (A mean<1.05 or B not worse): read it next run; owner testmgr

Still open:

• auditor 5-check

Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: arm A mean < 1.05 over 40 closed, or B not worse than A. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.

Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.

# A3-SERIAL forward paper test (Test Manager) - 11 Oct 08:20 UTC
Hunt: mc5 band entries (v3, cap 300k-1M at +300 s, buy first swap >= +306 s), tp5 sl.5, 4 h, target 5M-tier; filter = skip pools whose creator launched before (A3 lens 5, #797). Prior from ppfeeds creatorprior (#806).
Arms: A = creator prior 0 | B = prior >=1 (skipped group, expected losers) | C = every band pool. 7% slippage (mult*0.93); pull=0.
- Replay since 6 Oct (in-sample): 64 band entries
  - A: n 49 closed, mean 1.02x, median 0.44x, win 7, tp 7, stop 40, pull 1, time 1
  - B: n 15 closed, mean 0.58x, median 0.93x, win 0, tp 0, stop 5, pull 1, time 9
  - C: n 64 closed, mean 0.92x, median 0.45x, win 7, tp 7, stop 45, pull 2, time 10
- FORWARD only (pools created from 10 Oct 00:00 UTC): 12 entries
  - A: n 8 closed, mean 0.49x, median 0.44x, win 0, tp 0, stop 7, pull 0, time 1
  - B: n 4 closed, mean 0.58x, median 0.93x, win 0, tp 0, stop 2, pull 0, time 2
  - C: n 12 closed, mean 0.52x, median 0.45x, win 0, tp 0, stop 9, pull 0, time 3
- Skipped: {'cap300 outside 300k-1M': 1417, 'no swaps by 300 s': 68, 'no swap after +306 s yet': 3}
- A3 sim: prior 0 mean 1.23 (n211), prior>=1 0.77 (n55). Kill: forward A mean < 1.0 over 30 closed, or A not above C over 30.
- Limits: mark-to-print exits. Live needs creatorprior at entry (exec copies lib/db or calls over ssh). Only Ben switches live (D-030).