A2-SYMPATH
new pool shares rare name word with runner (>=500k, <=48h old), entry birth+66s, tp3/5 stop .5 · paper, $10 a trade, since 16 Oct · idea #441 · updated 20 Oct 07:51 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: sell untested; analyst2 +66s sim showed no return lift (1.78 vs 1.97); ~4 matches/day on tape
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: arm B mean<1.05 at n20; decide-by 20 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$510.09
Trades done
27
14 up, 13 down
Best trade
4.7x
Exit rule shown
B
tp5
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule B, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B tp5 | 27 | 2.89x | 14 | 0 | 13 | +$510.09 |
| A tp3 | 27 | 2.12x | 17 | 0 | 10 | +$302.99 |
Every trade (exit rule B)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0x242d6ca7cb0a9a341df35f11421e418c855d29a55f413802f80eb6d498700463 | 20 Oct 07:21 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.4%) +$37.04 |
| 26 | 0x499d26e84842ccb741ca5b5661a153075cc540b55051328b7d70d2c69743a3a6 | 20 Oct 01:43 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.3%) +$37.03 |
| 25 | 0x7f51bb7578384ed8a9baa2502033ac455cf2724b20ee531be08dea82cf18caeb | 20 Oct 00:29 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-6.5%) -$0.65 |
| 24 | 0x0cc9070f4af8a1af44976199f27ca372ffc296613bc15bcb1153a788dbac3dc2 | 19 Oct 22:04 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.4%) +$37.04 |
| 23 | 0xa24002e2e6b0b92dd71d4edecc109848c5bf86b1e52f1c6ab61de441c2a4e7f8 | 19 Oct 15:33 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 22 | 0xeca49d10868e52e750c86cc75a01464381133d3a8e71992aa6518d8846ea5c86 | 19 Oct 10:42 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.3%) +$37.03 |
| 21 | 0x41c0774614483c10b62121774b3fd416e499499710701651c1c4c76a8b738866 | 19 Oct 09:18 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 20 | 0x45e369767e4a0258046fc0ada301ab0e948f30e70485ec772c92724716da7845 | 19 Oct 00:49 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-6.5%) -$0.65 |
| 19 | 0xdad0201c2fe8290fbd96ead3318eb8f89ea974a0f32dc9798e2b70a644a9cd1a | 18 Oct 20:02 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.4%) +$37.04 |
| 18 | 0x4e8b22a0c42e120b142b2a367ce2c62f5492fcd916160ece24b395f51afacee6 | 18 Oct 19:52 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.4%) +$37.04 |
| 17 | 0xa33f4c2baead6a69ca29d07d114251aa171a6635dec23bcc213f6882a7756a9c | 18 Oct 19:38 | $10 | quiet | 0.92x (-7.8%) -$0.78 |
| 16 | 0x6da56476baf0ef1f61f72813b1a9bf59b0859c62468e5dfbf5bf7a1b65aeb783 | 18 Oct 19:38 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 15 | 0x832818a12a5b5ef9d68b905256e32ec466b5e0df9c442b0e1dea12ab17d0f063 | 18 Oct 19:28 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.4%) +$37.04 |
| 14 | 0xf5b4e87b85eea8a7fe62a5074f352467c191986c35a4d1e72fe9d4529c6cb64a | 18 Oct 19:10 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 13 | 0xf3ef9248e052736466c9f0e405b72b3defe84311e007c552d75275a7e3d9ec82 | 18 Oct 11:41 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-6.5%) -$0.65 |
| 12 | 0x940359df06bc8c2f13c2b772e533681a6be689dbfe0a67436e343ce5e0478c6f | 18 Oct 07:54 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-6.5%) -$0.65 |
| 11 | 0xdf6a6a318884ae754438ce6d80d410af0bfd4af8750d946971c932fe6fac4e3d | 18 Oct 07:53 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.4%) +$37.04 |
| 10 | 0x9b0ff20cfe2607071ad64b7839aa5679f99611307ba13ec6caa53e16c9f2ff6b | 18 Oct 07:43 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.4%) +$37.04 |
| 9 | 0x0f744dbd77fcd7f2d6450b3d7f6e444b5babf7155ccfd931d1793a00ce18d120 | 18 Oct 05:01 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.4%) +$37.04 |
| 8 | 0x865f8ee562da02d880393910a1e71fbac8f2f79d8f671ae326e3d9e7b7ce1738 | 18 Oct 00:44 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.3%) +$37.03 |
| 7 | 0x5f7b908a5c39f851c27d79c8efd799e9a97af29dcb078d4448a0f99075103a1c | 17 Oct 20:56 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-6.5%) -$0.65 |
| 6 | 0xff11420072a16cbef17dc3d9836d244e030f74fc782328b2b8ebf8531fecfc26 | 17 Oct 16:52 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.4%) +$37.04 |
| 5 | 0x2a06cbe936daac510d4ce4c652961f6d4b872f55373be85332a5f2a443c98605 | 17 Oct 10:20 | $10 | tp | 4.70x (+370.4%) +$37.04 |
| 4 | 0x25870963d516011af5548a050cea6a7cd82adf50d177ec4216ff7560a33873d9 | 17 Oct 09:54 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 3 | 0x216416e22761dbf6a1876a1c00f19dd0662a3593c36fdc94a2d9fa67e23afe0e | 17 Oct 09:52 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 2 | 0xf02551b8a394c952c78928e6b6f5bc26e942fb6bd4ef7a9a76adc25fef87e9fb | 17 Oct 09:46 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 1 | 0xc5408aa7cd9922d9ef2b4797469c3c2d43023a14683e99bba88f3f055ccff060 | 17 Oct 03:01 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
Full Test Manager report
# A2-SYMPATH: sympathy names, entry birth+66s, tp3/5 stop .5 (ledger 441) forward paper test (Test Manager) - 20 Oct 00:51 UTC
Rule: new pool shares a rare name word (df<=15) with a tape runner (cap>=5e+05, liq>=1e21, crossed before birth, born <=48h earlier). Fwd from 1792142000. SELL UNTESTED.
- tape runners 190; forward matches 64; open legs 6; skipped {'no entry swap yet': 34}
- arm A (tp3): on time n 8, mean 2.11x, <1x 3, tp 5, pull 0 | late (excluded) n 19, mean 2.13x, <1x 7, tp 12, pull 0
- arm B (tp5): on time n 8, mean 2.82x, <1x 4, tp 4, pull 0 | late (excluded) n 19, mean 2.92x, <1x 9, tp 10, pull 0
- Kill: arm B mean < 1.05 at n20. Replay (analyst2): +66s sim 1.78 vs 1.97 base, so expect no lift; P1M lift 13.9% vs 2.7%.