A1-TINYV3
v3 fee-100 pool, 2-5 swaps no sell by +40s, reserve<0.3 ETH; enter +43s · paper, $10 a trade, since 10 Oct · idea #744 · updated 12 Oct 02:50 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: fwd tp5 n19 mean 1.02x, 10-loss streak hit: review/retire at n40; owner testmgr2
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: tp5 mean < 1.2x over 40 trades. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$9.86
Trades done
33
5 up, 28 down
Best trade
4.9x
Exit rule shown
tp5
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule tp5, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tp10 | 33 | 1.31x | 5 | 0 | 28 | +$101.98 |
| tp5 | 33 | 0.97x | 5 | 0 | 28 | -$9.86 |
| tp3 | 33 | 0.85x | 7 | 0 | 26 | -$48.64 |
Every trade (exit rule tp5)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0x08b7e3e351d5fa4bc69321248d6eb06f5c90cb28 | 12 Oct 02:38 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 32 | 0x974f3393b5a25ffa45f0f4191ae69f5bc041fd71 | 12 Oct 02:38 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 31 | 0x215168c4734f28c31e33fd730a2ad587f5515390 | 12 Oct 02:37 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 30 | 0x8acc5fda4bdb6bd92f3e5c76a910c47c8972696f | 12 Oct 02:21 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 29 | 0x26c29066e33f97d67f158463b5e9201a3733529c | 12 Oct 02:11 | $10 | time | 0.97x (-3.1%) -$0.31 |
| 28 | 0xbb66645c3a4644c6179fc1715073132b2da3774b | 12 Oct 02:09 | $10 | time | 0.97x (-3.1%) -$0.31 |
| 27 | 0xc1d1f29854ffc3f0306d14946f36c14c28190dbf | 12 Oct 02:08 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 26 | 0xd3b8e9e053a05684f077610850b3a41e9576d426 | 12 Oct 02:08 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 25 | 0x927aa6a4804cf75400a4c9f1458e3c76ccc767a7 | 11 Oct 23:13 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 24 | 0x12323d67687954e13ed56fdffb232d1fb07e75da | 11 Oct 22:10 | $10 | tp | 4.85x (+385.1%) +$38.51 |
| 23 | 0x6de464a8aef68d3cf07af46ac54d6378259684bd | 11 Oct 21:19 | $10 | tp | 4.85x (+385.1%) +$38.51 |
| 22 | 0x021e6b168063ed113c5e656f1827dfbd56dea163 | 11 Oct 21:12 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 21 | 0xb4960039bc0f1879239b9f54076a7c19619fd7ea | 11 Oct 21:12 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 20 | 0x8052d27d02b6ea04c50e5f97507b779e62a0abbb | 11 Oct 15:11 | $10 | time | 0.97x (-3.0%) -$0.30 |
| 19 | 0x46c71366874dc684c8da7a90cd7478435ca9748b | 11 Oct 13:46 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 18 | 0x1a5fca655458001eb0411c41234551460cd5afd9 | 11 Oct 13:42 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 17 | 0x253cc11fa8188ef4ad9cd4199c23180c0f917d07 | 11 Oct 13:40 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 16 | 0xe667c0d9856b83d6251e46cbd14276b52e1e3c46 | 11 Oct 10:26 | $10 | tp | 4.85x (+385.1%) +$38.51 |
| 15 | 0x198d9b909a439efc73a67d521226cf900b2ae967 | 11 Oct 07:37 | $10 | tp | 4.85x (+385.1%) +$38.51 |
| 14 | 0x8b7209ecb4a8c2a6544a621e6070cd0090a2b311 | 11 Oct 06:38 | $10 | time | 0.97x (-3.0%) -$0.30 |
| 13 | 0xa3d54085716ac014e0d4f4ccaf0a9e10d34561b5 | 11 Oct 00:17 | $10 | time | 0.97x (-3.0%) -$0.30 |
| 12 | 0x757a7a0ff3d7fe190b22010e4910577d9531f2dd | 11 Oct 00:12 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 11 | 0xa4b1d2070e1db6f5c91cf565faf3217399de38d9 | 11 Oct 00:05 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 10 | 0xb35b3bcbaa283bbe9aea8477c50f509de7476447 | 11 Oct 00:05 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 9 | 0x2d3d4d7319d09f2b5153bca01dfb6ebf69794cf1 | 11 Oct 00:05 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 8 | 0x2f7ba575727272dec7b83b6428c46ee7e7efe207 | 11 Oct 00:05 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 7 | 0xe10de8423f29ec54fcbff5c7605225a2dac10aa1 | 10 Oct 23:22 | $10 | time | 0.97x (-2.9%) -$0.29 |
| 6 | 0x455203159d41a8ccfde13c0f7b89dee68ce175c0 | 10 Oct 23:22 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 5 | 0x11bceb21eb571e37672ec8eed67658eff303e1ba | 10 Oct 22:56 | $10 | time | 0.97x (-3.0%) -$0.30 |
| 4 | 0xb3831803b5cf7c2dd28e07afaa2d4a8199507f4f | 10 Oct 22:24 | $10 | tp | 4.85x (+385.1%) +$38.51 |
| 3 | 0xca172bd5eee5b245bee3f86612b3fb1ee14956ea | 10 Oct 20:18 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 2 | 0xdd4ba2e0f403dbd6922eee0a57412036af343a46 | 10 Oct 20:14 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 1 | 0x1b2a36fe01102f62436b7091f8f363566b6b5830 | 10 Oct 19:28 | $10 | time | 0.97x (-3.0%) -$0.30 |
Full Test Manager report
# A1-TINYV3 forward paper test (Test Manager) - 11 Oct 19:50 UTC
Rule (fw/a1-727.md, #744): v3 fee-100 pool, 2-5 swaps and no sell by first swap +40 s, reserve < 0.3 ETH; entry +43 s (3 s lag), 0.005 ETH, 1% fee + 2% impact each side, exit tp or 20 min, pull = 0. OOS replay n=26: tp3 1.51 / tp5 2.18 / tp10 3.14, median 1.1. Forward from 10 Oct ~12:30 UTC (v3live.db).
- Pools passing the rule: 35; waiting 64; open legs 6; skipped {'swaps in 40s not 2-5': 234, 'reserve>=0.3': 2}
- tp5 (A1 rule): n 33, mean 0.97x, median 0.00, <1x 28, pulled 20
- tp3: n 33, mean 0.85x, median 0.00, <1x 26, pulled 18
- tp10: n 33, mean 1.31x, median 0.00, <1x 28, pulled 20
- Longest loss streak tp5: 10 (10 in a row = stop and review). Kill: tp5 mean < 1.2x over >= 40 trades.
- Caveat: exit fills on 0.3-ETH-reserve pools use mid price + 2% impact; real depth unproven (that is the point of 0.005 size). Hunt: flip, not runner catcher. Only Ben switches live (D-030).