USDG-EARLY v4 USDG pools
Analyst 1 · enter swap 2 / swap 4 · forward from 10 Oct 02:45 UTC · paper, $10 a trade, since 10 Oct · idea #435 · updated 10 Oct 19:40 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
The Test Manager has not yet confirmed:
- All-pool arms fail kill (B 0.62x n=1397): KILL
- Hooked-only 1.37x is lottery (median 0.46x, top5=42%): register as new test
- Hooked USDG sellability untested
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean < 1.0x after 60 trades. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$20.00
Trades done
2
0 up, 2 down
Best trade
0.0x
Exit rule shown
E2B
enter swap 2, pull/quiet = 0 (judge)
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule E2B, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E2A enter swap 2, pull/quiet sold at last price | 2 | 0.47x | 0 | 0 | 2 | -$10.50 |
| E4A enter swap 4, pull at price | 2 | 0.47x | 0 | 0 | 2 | -$10.50 |
| E2B enter swap 2, pull/quiet = 0 (judge) | 2 | 0.00x | 0 | 0 | 2 | -$20.00 |
| E4B enter swap 4, pull = 0 | 2 | 0.00x | 0 | 0 | 2 | -$20.00 |
Every trade (exit rule E2B)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0x1fb1c5260b358a9e08949407a977486a398a8006aed12c4468ef3bbcf7f7fb37 | 10 Oct 17:45 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 1 | 0x269ba539c72652972890e39f00deac60fdeab770440c64959e3e98a33de9607b | 10 Oct 10:57 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
Full Test Manager report
# USDG-EARLY (+ B4 = USDG-EARLY-B #467: fee 1-50000, first 4 swaps all buys, enter swap 4; sim 2.21x n259; sellability NOT checked): v4 USDG/SUSD pools, first-3 median cap <300k, enter swap 2 / 4 (A1 #435) forward paper test (Test Manager) - 10 Oct 12:40 UTC
Spec: fw/a1-usdg-v4.md (sim E2 mean 1.49x n1462, E4 1.28x). Feed v4tape usdg_*.jsonl, forward only from 10 Oct 02:45 UTC. Stop 0.5x, trail 0.6 after 2x, liq drop >=50% sells, 4 h time stop, pool fee (dynamic -> 1%) + 3% slippage per side. Arm B pull/quiet = 0 (judge by B). Hunt: first swaps, cap <300k, target 1M-10M.
- USDG/SUSD pools seen: 232; waiting 214; open 4; skipped {'first-3 median cap>=300k': 15}
- entry E2 arm A: n 1, mean 0.94x, <1x 1, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | hooked n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | late (excluded) n 1, mean 0.01x, <1x 1, zeros 1, >=3x 0
- entry E2 arm B: n 1, mean 0.00x, <1x 1, zeros 1, >=3x 0 | hooked n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | late (excluded) n 1, mean 0.00x, <1x 1, zeros 1, >=3x 0
- entry E4 arm A: n 1, mean 0.94x, <1x 1, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | hooked n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | late (excluded) n 1, mean 0.01x, <1x 1, zeros 1, >=3x 0
- entry E4 arm B: n 1, mean 0.00x, <1x 1, zeros 1, >=3x 0 | hooked n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | late (excluded) n 1, mean 0.00x, <1x 1, zeros 1, >=3x 0
- entry B4 arm A: n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | hooked n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | late (excluded) n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0
- entry B4 arm B: n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | hooked n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | late (excluded) n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0
- Kill: mean < 1.0 after 60 trades (arm B) or 10 losses in a row. Unproven: sellability on hooked USDG pools, thin-liquidity slippage. Paper only.