A3-V2Q v2 8x trigger
Analyst 3 · factory 0x8bce v2 pair, price>=8x first Sync, WETH>=2 · paper, $10 a trade, since 11 Oct · idea #501 · updated 15 Oct 07:00 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: Fwd n18 (arm A 1.66x, 9 LP pulls; arm G n3 3.20x). Needs G n15 or decide by A mean; sell/tax path unverified (needs $5 sell test)
Still open:
- Replay n26 mean 3.59x (3 zeros); sell tax/honeypot and outside-wallet sellability not tested (ppfeeds open)
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean < 1.0 over 20 trades or 10 losses in a row; decide-by 16 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$147.36
Trades done
26
10 up, 16 down
Best trade
4.8x
Exit rule shown
A
buy 2nd Sync after trigger, exit +5x / -50% / LP pull / 30 min
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A buy 2nd Sync after trigger, exit +5x / -50% / LP pull / 30 min | 26 | 1.57x | 9 | 0 | 16 | +$147.36 |
| G | 6 | 3.21x | 4 | 0 | 2 | +$132.76 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0x1cf09d15f69b366b19b7334eeee83f4ca81008db | 15 Oct 00:53 | $10 | tp5x | 4.81x (+380.7%) +$38.07 |
| 25 | 0x8aebc31127f268dc9d52ab90b649d0153a0a6cd4 | 15 Oct 00:50 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.07x (-93.5%) -$9.35 |
| 24 | 0x78c916b16c183b4efa85b3f32cf7b56935f91efc | 15 Oct 00:29 | $10 | tp5x | 4.79x (+379.1%) +$37.91 |
| 23 | 0x291218ba954f259ef700cacfc4189c8951212c44 | 15 Oct 00:07 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.01x (-98.6%) -$9.86 |
| 22 | 0x604ad008f254b828ea373bc01ecab85eab8671e5 | 14 Oct 23:26 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.05x (-95.0%) -$9.50 |
| 21 | 0x0ac0e5df1166b219cc1019beac926740e32177d4 | 14 Oct 21:49 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.41x (-58.6%) -$5.86 |
| 20 | 0x39653fe5c6ff5d8ac2c1d94dd0bf3160f786e26e | 14 Oct 21:43 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.01x (-99.2%) -$9.92 |
| 19 | 0xce4c88a90eed51f774b4d38f327406af61642a17 | 14 Oct 19:59 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.63x (-37.3%) -$3.73 |
| 18 | 0xe26028827b30f67f7adfd8630f174ceb03e8d466 | 14 Oct 03:37 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.97x (-3.2%) -$0.32 |
| 17 | 0x17954add6a7cab95923ea1067bca77d6d841b2ee | 14 Oct 03:34 | $10 | tp5x | 4.65x (+365.0%) +$36.50 |
| 16 | 0x749a5cf4f3aee2f7c37f8fcfebfa0ca6b54a1209 | 14 Oct 03:18 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.02x (-98.2%) -$9.82 |
| 15 | 0xb0f55b3eb6177796e066663392c96a8f0ad49fdd | 14 Oct 02:58 | $10 | end | 1.02x (+2.3%) +$0.23 |
| 14 | 0x0e64607d8acf7b9aa0f12a70f309faa7c3cf2291 | 14 Oct 02:05 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.71x (-28.6%) -$2.86 |
| 13 | 0x558a427863a9e6bbd497d5649c993e97bfe1b10b | 13 Oct 23:01 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.40x (-60.2%) -$6.02 |
| 12 | 0x98aea3ec18985baf76f08a184e9d2899804399a0 | 13 Oct 22:45 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.06x (-94.4%) -$9.44 |
| 11 | 0xfb4c88aca2091aabb1a6d50136e7821d7661eea3 | 13 Oct 21:27 | $10 | end | 2.32x (+131.7%) +$13.17 |
| 10 | 0xf3c385409e4961accfd4df4292024d7021679fbf | 13 Oct 21:02 | $10 | tp5x | 4.84x (+383.7%) +$38.37 |
| 9 | 0xd7f35921b7f0e49799c54f7f115d3f0b32cf032c | 13 Oct 20:43 | $10 | end | 2.07x (+107.3%) +$10.73 |
| 8 | 0x859b454b748a70509c44cfee75ba9a6e4b88274e | 13 Oct 08:45 | $10 | tp5x | 4.59x (+359.0%) +$35.90 |
| 7 | 0x7060b69998c1868861044c9da7b120db50314815 | 13 Oct 07:14 | $10 | time30m | 2.10x (+110.3%) +$11.03 |
| 6 | 0x299b211f32e692861b73d1b6bab2b5317444341a | 13 Oct 05:03 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.43x (-57.2%) -$5.72 |
| 5 | 0x15e1cbf94a6f3157902fd0f48596f5aa58040ef6 | 12 Oct 22:03 | $10 | end | 0.97x (-2.5%) -$0.25 |
| 4 | 0xcd56c39b4b8acf7f7426f5bac1e0fc823cafb260 | 12 Oct 21:49 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.01x (-98.5%) -$9.85 |
| 3 | 0x9af28b4bd6bef00903ec3214629c81c50a55a172 | 12 Oct 11:12 | $10 | tp5x | 4.76x (+375.8%) +$37.58 |
| 2 | 0xf0e8a094fb6bd2765b258b2644c444eeb598bdda | 12 Oct 05:10 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.02x (-98.2%) -$9.82 |
| 1 | 0x3158372585ae3093a07d20173fe518fdef9b5cf1 | 12 Oct 01:43 | $10 | pull<60%max | 0.02x (-98.1%) -$9.81 |
Full Test Manager report
# A3-V2Q forward paper test (Test Manager) - 15 Oct 00:00 UTC Rule (analyst3 a3-2023-v2trig.md, #2024): factory 0x8bce v2 pair, price >= 8x first Sync and WETH reserve >= 2 (feed v2trig). Buy 0.05 ETH at 2nd Sync after trigger, exit +5x / -50% / reserve < 60% of max (LP pull) / 30 min. Constant product on real reserves, 0.3% fee each side. Replay expectation: n 26, mean 3.59x (tp5 sl.5), 3 zeros. - Triggers seen 26; closed 26; open/waiting 0; LP pulls among closed 15 - Mean 1.57x, <1x 16, longest loss streak 6 - Arm G (gate sells_pre >= 3, analyst3 #2229; missing field = not gated): n 6, mean 3.21x. Arm A = all triggers (no guard, record only). Judge G. - Kill (arm G): mean < 1.0 over 20 trades or 10 losses in a row. Not tested: token sell tax / honeypot (ppfeeds open), outside-wallet sellability.