V3-005 first buy 0.05
Analyst 1 · v3 fee-100, tp5/tp3 · fwd n16 tp5 1.61x · paper, $10 a trade, since 09 Oct · idea #157 #168 · updated 13 Oct 07:20 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: 13 Oct: fwd n16 closed, tp5 1.61x, tp3 1.28x (8 pulls=0x, 4 tp 4.2-4.5x, 2 time 2.1x); replay 2.45x (pull 17% vs fwd 50%). Needs auditor3 verdict on replay+fwd today (#2263); retire if not VERIFIED by 14 Oct. Owner testmgr3.
Still open:
- 13 Oct auditor3: NOT VERIFIED. fwd tp5 n16 1.61x lo80 0.97, replay 2.45x above fwd hi80 2.25, pull 56% vs replay 17%
- Open: fwd n>=30 with lo80>=1.0, tx.from, sell proof on fwd pools
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: retire if no gated pool by 14 Oct (A1, #168); tp5 mean < 1.3x over 30 trades. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$96.89
Trades done
16
7 up, 9 down
Best trade
4.5x
Exit rule shown
tp5
sell at 5x
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule tp5, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tp5 sell at 5x | 16 | 1.61x | 7 | 0 | 9 | +$96.89 |
| tp3 sell at 3x | 16 | 1.28x | 8 | 0 | 8 | +$45.11 |
Every trade (exit rule tp5)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0x74a6f2bd0dd3a98d0a35c2009a128a2fc4592a33 | 13 Oct 00:22 | $10 | tp · cap $5k → $23k | 4.40x (+340.0%) +$34.00 |
| 15 | 0x6e3332e70561ba6311a90b2fad7eb2e5b0e25b55 | 12 Oct 22:54 | $10 | tp · cap $5k → $22k | 4.51x (+351.2%) +$35.12 |
| 14 | 0x608d687d8cd2da5274f7277e125cfe996e7d9f3f | 12 Oct 22:48 | $10 | pull · cap $5k → $0k | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 13 | 0xcd3a43d8fee0c22edcfef9fb686bc36c63dd57a5 | 12 Oct 20:10 | $10 | pull · cap $11k → $0k | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 12 | 0x2fd38d55acd0862c05ac0adc07cbf2faa2b3d25f | 12 Oct 20:06 | $10 | pull · cap $13k → $0k | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 11 | 0x39ec6fd7ba7c3f64faba9ca6d13c86a9af09a38c | 12 Oct 18:07 | $10 | time · cap $5k → $10k | 2.09x (+109.4%) +$10.94 |
| 10 | 0x2100a7d07a8ad43e669ee27423a9fffd1ed3e6ed | 12 Oct 12:57 | $10 | pull · cap $5k → $0k | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 9 | 0x45eeecd3dd562116576dd42550468e7a56f69f10 | 12 Oct 12:44 | $10 | time · cap $9k → $19k | 2.10x (+109.5%) +$10.95 |
| 8 | 0x9c03d2d1de9439efbb933caefe3be8498c637b0b | 12 Oct 09:07 | $10 | tp · cap $8k → $34k | 4.20x (+319.8%) +$31.98 |
| 7 | 0x12323d67687954e13ed56fdffb232d1fb07e75da | 11 Oct 22:10 | $10 | tp · cap $9k → $38k | 4.24x (+323.5%) +$32.35 |
| 6 | 0xca9e77fde8a7b79e7256f5eedeb88f1aeb7469cf | 11 Oct 18:05 | $10 | pull · cap $14k → $0k | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 5 | 0x46c71366874dc684c8da7a90cd7478435ca9748b | 11 Oct 13:46 | $10 | pull · cap $5k → $0k | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 4 | 0x1a5fca655458001eb0411c41234551460cd5afd9 | 11 Oct 13:42 | $10 | pull · cap $5k → $0k | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 3 | 0x253cc11fa8188ef4ad9cd4199c23180c0f917d07 | 11 Oct 13:40 | $10 | pull · cap $5k → $0k | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 2 | 0xb3831803b5cf7c2dd28e07afaa2d4a8199507f4f | 10 Oct 22:24 | $10 | tp · cap $7k → $30k | 4.16x (+315.5%) +$31.55 |
| 1 | 0xf37cd14e240abc69d5494225310236f1d9491be0 | 10 Oct 21:17 | $10 | pull · cap $11k → $0k | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
Full Test Manager report
# A1-V3-005 forward paper test (Test Manager) - 13 Oct 00:20 UTC
Rule (fw/a1-v3seed005.md, #157): v3 fee-100 pool, first swap = BUY of exactly 0.05 ETH; enter once swap-flow reserve >= 0.2 ETH within 60 s of first swap (+3 s lag); 0.04 ETH; 1% fee each side, sell impact depth-aware r/(r+v) (pool ETH after swap r, v = sold ETH value; #868); tp5 (A1 rule) or 20 min; pull = 0. Sim expects tp5 3.8-3.9x, tp3 2.5x, ~3% pulled. Forward from 14:30 UTC 9 Oct (v3live.db).
- Pools with exact 0.05 ETH first buy seen: 34 (A1: ~270 in 2 days incl. spam; gate leaves 3-10/day); waiting 0; open 0; skipped {'reserve<0.2 in 60s': 18}
- tp5: n 16, mean 1.61x, <1x 9, pulled 9
- tp3: n 16, mean 1.28x, <1x 8, pulled 8
- Longest loss streak tp5: 4 (10 in a row = stop and review). Kill: tp5 mean < 1.3x over 30 trades.
- Not tested: outside money (tx.from), operator overlap with TINYV3/kit, our sell size vs real pool depth. Ready for live only after 2 profitable days, no bugs, enough trades; only Ben switches (D-030).