v3 cap-continuation 150-300k wide trail 35%
Testmgr3 · miss family (capc variant) · paper, $10 a trade, since 20 Oct · idea #703 · updated 23 Oct 03:23 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: fwd n>=20; honest replay (no look-ahead) n286 0.81x med 0.65x; locked-code gate on; decide by 24 Oct
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean<1.0x with upper80<1.05 at fwd n>=20; decide by 24 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$11.32
Trades done
26
5 up, 21 down
Best trade
3.7x
Exit rule shown
H
cross 150-300k, +15s entry, stop .7, trail 35% of peak, hunt 3M+
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 287 trades, mean 0.81x, -$550.01 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule H, numbered in time order.
Every trade (exit rule H)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0x86cd81fb640929036210f002eab9e35ac9b4be07 | 23 Oct 00:48 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 25 | 0x056ed3cccadfb0d00c771d6924aafd743fab5710 | 22 Oct 21:56 | $10 | trail | 0.61x (-39.4%) -$3.94 |
| 24 | 0xfdfab49212efbb0701b8c2ef5d2b8e1e70b8fed6 | 22 Oct 20:54 | $10 | trail | 0.64x (-36.2%) -$3.62 |
| 23 | 0xaa9844f592dfab4cdc8ad96c0fbfd0137fae00b8 | 22 Oct 20:11 | $10 | time | 3.33x (+233.0%) +$23.30 |
| 22 | 0x162d63543b01ae0032034d870de4b8d43dbed903 | 22 Oct 19:52 | $10 | trail | 0.66x (-34.4%) -$3.44 |
| 21 | 0xce6bd090ea32a438da0f9d2bfa2a814ff41169f2 | 22 Oct 18:34 | $10 | trail | 0.65x (-34.8%) -$3.48 |
| 20 | 0x241919430981ae65d036a3fad4d207ba9c192ccc | 22 Oct 15:45 | $10 | trail | 0.71x (-28.6%) -$2.86 |
| 19 | 0x775b9201eae9512a7626818e5b8775d072b9832f | 22 Oct 11:05 | $10 | trail | 1.09x (+9.0%) +$0.90 |
| 18 | 0xe3a073a531d822fb2f8056dd1fea6e876519909b | 22 Oct 10:40 | $10 | trail | 0.64x (-36.0%) -$3.60 |
| 17 | 0x9e06e292ed5334114a01bc1aff87537f26947620 | 22 Oct 08:59 | $10 | trail | 0.65x (-34.6%) -$3.46 |
| 16 | 0x1e2b4bbabf505375f45f0a0b39f4187a93b6c026 | 22 Oct 06:43 | $10 | trail | 0.63x (-37.3%) -$3.73 |
| 15 | 0xad7ff23810f149d0900987f2b74790ee6723cda6 | 22 Oct 04:26 | $10 | trail | 3.69x (+268.6%) +$26.86 |
| 14 | 0x9871a6173bbb4c2852ca249a83428849618d09d5 | 22 Oct 02:08 | $10 | trail | 0.66x (-34.2%) -$3.42 |
| 13 | 0x8b9dfc554e7fbbfb3100529d8b90f123e7cc11da | 21 Oct 23:45 | $10 | trail | 0.66x (-34.4%) -$3.44 |
| 12 | 0x82fc11f076817e52438d8e41da54edf086d829aa | 21 Oct 19:03 | $10 | trail | 2.00x (+100.0%) +$10.00 |
| 11 | 0x9cf6cdfd1c414bdc14594a67c7ca3eda8b1ea568 | 21 Oct 17:23 | $10 | trail | 0.65x (-35.1%) -$3.51 |
| 10 | 0x5e2f7b0c94c972401b6ef5382ac355a70a261223 | 21 Oct 11:57 | $10 | trail | 0.64x (-36.0%) -$3.60 |
| 9 | 0xe9d0f67a79a952ff7928c3940a88b5289101dafe | 21 Oct 08:02 | $10 | trail | 0.90x (-10.3%) -$1.03 |
| 8 | 0x0d6d75169f96142a32a5abe54f1f6b13355a2402 | 21 Oct 06:54 | $10 | trail | 0.59x (-40.9%) -$4.09 |
| 7 | 0x55e0a094ca5d911bcddaea0d4d2751aca668cb83 | 21 Oct 01:36 | $10 | trail | 0.63x (-36.7%) -$3.67 |
| 6 | 0x756860e1abab7cd15847c9c643354b9322389cdd | 21 Oct 01:03 | $10 | trail | 0.66x (-34.1%) -$3.41 |
| 5 | 0x230934a337e8c27220ad094963590b807712701a | 20 Oct 22:45 | $10 | trail | 0.66x (-34.4%) -$3.44 |
| 4 | 0x323c591c3b9faa00d58d4568d0b9334e2b22175f | 20 Oct 21:52 | $10 | trail | 0.15x (-85.4%) -$8.54 |
| 3 | 0x0e2521121dede0064f9439ccb026175c62d814a7 | 20 Oct 20:42 | $10 | trail | 0.61x (-38.9%) -$3.89 |
| 2 | 0x7c06e52a1c1f5713c1c39a30530536c591174fff | 20 Oct 18:49 | $10 | trail | 2.07x (+106.8%) +$10.68 |
| 1 | 0x6a723aa4637eb685fd5759a7b5eb3e296f30e755 | 20 Oct 16:38 | $10 | trail | 0.71x (-28.9%) -$2.89 |
Full Test Manager report
# v3caps paper (testmgr) 22 Oct 20:23 UTC H 150-300k WIDE trail 35% hunt 3M+. Open legs 1. - H: n 313, mean 0.82x, median 0.65x, win 58, pull 45, time 5