v3 crowd-breadth early entry (C15, M60)
Analyst 1 · v3 crowded pools · paper, $10 a trade, since 18 Oct · idea #655, #656 · updated 19 Oct 13:03 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: fwd n>=15; replay with pulls=0: C15 1.38 (n442, 62% pull), M60 1.14 (n295); same pull risk as v3crowd G
Still open:
- KILL: fwd C15 n50 ex3 0.79 (38 zeros), M60 n38 ex3 0.82; retire
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: C15 mean <1.0x with upper80<1.05 at fwd n>=20; decide by 22 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$234.45
Trades done
51
12 up, 39 down
Best trade
14.1x
Exit rule shown
C15
#655 A trigger (cap>=20k, age<=30m, poolETH>=1) + >=15 signers + top buyer<=35%, entry +15s cap<60k, trail50/stop.6, pull=0
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 738 trades, mean 1.28x, +$2062.07 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule C15, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C15 #655 A trigger (cap>=20k, age<=30m, poolETH>=1) + >=15 signers + top buyer<=35%, entry +15s cap<60k, trail50/stop.6, pull=0 | 51 | 1.46x | 11 | 2 | 39 | +$234.45 |
| M60 #656 first swap cap>=60k age<=30m + same crowd filter, entry cap<150k | 38 | 1.36x | 9 | 0 | 23 | +$135.55 |
Every trade (exit rule C15)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0x74c1374aa66b50e2055a773964fce5990e0f0efc | 19 Oct 12:48 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 50 | 0x68f2e682db43318960066956a9b7319ec3012935 | 19 Oct 12:44 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 49 | 0xf35702d0dab7577730a349da217ab8f2a1bedbfc | 19 Oct 12:39 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 48 | 0xb68cbd72c595c4c55728512132d24f149041b9e8 | 19 Oct 12:22 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 47 | 0xa90e531096e0082d99bacdbfc2c4498c3b74a477 | 19 Oct 11:59 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 46 | 0x0408630c86ff64d2edb77b54d741f58a2e48794c | 19 Oct 11:35 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 45 | 0xc882c71c2b525fd47ae988298d5bcdba6bea7b6b | 19 Oct 11:27 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 44 | 0xca406e86d8f1d505b3694d08f85965045f20d9c0 | 19 Oct 09:12 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 43 | 0xc051a4ae9a768818f6a57cd557569d643775c5d3 | 19 Oct 09:01 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 42 | 0x17fca9eba13c91194dfd5bb66f4c572807fb14a9 | 19 Oct 08:49 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 41 | 0xc75261a3268fa771097591dd4e41900da62f79d4 | 19 Oct 07:41 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 40 | 0x6e9018227b893d28a9815bbbac5d7e37007f8999 | 19 Oct 07:16 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 39 | 0x5186a182b62baae39493962b1fc204f0dcfd8f28 | 19 Oct 07:04 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 38 | 0x492260addc62c700e282ee0847e831cdba6d87dd | 19 Oct 07:01 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 37 | 0x135041749d52ca66c00f515d1fe9789cc18c1852 | 19 Oct 06:36 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 36 | 0xa3e292995d131a3ff4cc2d0a4a4407611f759482 | 19 Oct 06:08 | $10 | trail | 2.79x (+178.7%) +$17.87 |
| 35 | 0x352f6d5f8263b2826115d8405c1d47eac83645ec | 19 Oct 05:28 | $10 | trail | 3.96x (+295.9%) +$29.59 |
| 34 | 0x9dc2fdffd31777743946a36e43bab6269c7ecdb6 | 18 Oct 22:57 | $10 | trail | 7.59x (+659.0%) +$65.90 |
| 33 | 0x7423c33d2066aed7eb03a09f89da011060353d19 | 18 Oct 22:42 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 32 | 0xf800869b4953ae1846e8b4faadf4c4457d7e6fa5 | 18 Oct 21:53 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 31 | 0xf7c685618ac00634badff404f5667085b75d4c27 | 18 Oct 21:38 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 30 | 0xd929981c197ded5165fa0e115a5fdd4774a6f6d9 | 18 Oct 21:20 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 29 | 0xa3b9c2b2ce64d893083690077c61953c2af6f30c | 18 Oct 21:02 | $10 | trail | 2.10x (+110.3%) +$11.03 |
| 28 | 0x3cca4995c775a26bbb0fcbbb9228d953ad9c791a | 18 Oct 20:54 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 27 | 0xb93db59ad17898ac8cb4ec7bd33a1d28b748ccee | 18 Oct 20:33 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 26 | 0x4f6a0d92b2ef3dfaf9dd15762f732206b0d9a50e | 18 Oct 20:21 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 25 | 0xaba8a649d11fbb5c8b9246523a8687aec44f507d | 18 Oct 20:18 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 24 | 0xae32acc72a7b83d0e0d8150c9158552d80581084 | 18 Oct 20:01 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 23 | 0x8eb11c8617bac8b194bc84ee6ba0b8ceab33dcb0 | 18 Oct 19:57 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 22 | 0x3dfb0b945071e50a8d7662712daad0cc59f70157 | 18 Oct 19:47 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 21 | 0x8d355d6cef61255acfa976696671458074d9746e | 18 Oct 19:43 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 20 | 0xcc0134dcc9bc84e6453cd646a06ace9f14df5b3d | 18 Oct 18:22 | $10 | trail | 6.03x (+502.7%) +$50.27 |
| 19 | 0x85a6641c32f763ca956f46df30920efe0030897d | 18 Oct 14:29 | $10 | trail | 3.28x (+228.3%) +$22.83 |
| 18 | 0xbf1382656e7fe5327419acc0bf3aa039ae97b27a | 18 Oct 14:20 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 17 | 0x466a58b04df885a5b244ea9414dc6e231bfa0087 | 18 Oct 14:18 | $10 | trail | 14.14x (+1314.4%) +$131.44 |
| 16 | 0xe24272a584133a8cd3cd1364c666c8065fa77279 | 18 Oct 14:16 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 15 | 0x1e5e1c1e69d4d33ebc50b2aeeeded6a51cd16503 | 18 Oct 14:10 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 14 | 0xde53976b8fbde05395cd9025a35963b168a0d02b | 18 Oct 12:42 | $10 | trail | 1.32x (+32.1%) +$3.21 |
| 13 | 0xb983d21a453ab5fb236fafb43ca30e7a8acdaf7b | 18 Oct 12:20 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 12 | 0x6a8e27502be99680a1504b862166b0da4d2645f3 | 18 Oct 11:28 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 11 | 0x00c65e7fbbfa037670fc692aad07f5ea325eaf47 | 18 Oct 11:05 | $10 | trail | 14.01x (+1300.5%) +$130.05 |
| 10 | 0x238a8dd9b687916a6f799fc583b6ab8c46463f95 | 18 Oct 10:34 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 9 | 0x4ff1d00332f97a964071171c23a581975e5b3f44 | 18 Oct 10:27 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 8 | 0xb098e337815900e70851daf56166e9cd791423e5 | 18 Oct 10:23 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 7 | 0x63f0b24a08e71d0470243647058814777fa53249 | 18 Oct 09:22 | $10 | trail | 3.74x (+274.2%) +$27.42 |
| 6 | 0xf4896194ec8f1f3b058273e32cb3b16e7fe246ce | 18 Oct 09:15 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 5 | 0x71bc3b356f35e9442c20eeef67ac58d78a120c04 | 18 Oct 09:12 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 4 | 0x57c8ce0a5d35aec43b089a5886ab85e4449c64ac | 18 Oct 09:10 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 3 | 0x8fae49b3a9990ff12e24f0c330a3c023d9d8aafe | 18 Oct 08:46 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 2 | 0x2721c67e206a95876ba3b67b4b96c76ceb4342d5 | 18 Oct 06:49 | $10 | trail | 6.15x (+514.6%) +$51.46 |
| 1 | 0x2ac461674636490d318e0fa7000ca206859a0b90 | 18 Oct 06:40 | $10 | trail | 9.34x (+833.8%) +$83.38 |
Full Test Manager report
# v3cb paper (testmgr) 19 Oct 06:03 UTC #655 C15 / #656 M60. Open legs 0. - C15: n 494, mean 1.38x, median 0.00x, win 141, pull 313, time 0 - M60: n 333, mean 1.16x, median 0.68x, win 132, pull 115, time 1