v3 cap-continuation 150-300k FRESH

Testmgr4 · miss family (capc variant) · paper, $10 a trade, since 20 Oct · idea #707 · updated 22 Oct 16:44 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.

Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven

Waiting for: fwd n>=15; replay in trades.csv src col; locked-code gate on

Still open:

Paper run, no real money

Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean<1.0x with upper80<1.05 at fwd n>=20; decide by 24 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.

Total P&L
+$28.74
Trades done
20
7 up, 13 down
Best trade
4.0x
Exit rule shown
H
cross 150-300k, age<=180m, stop .7 trail 50%

Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 282 trades, mean 0.91x, -$249.45 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.

P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)

Each step is a trade with exit rule H, numbered in time order.

$0$20trade 1 at 20 Oct 16:38 1.01x +$0.08#1trade 2 at 20 Oct 18:49 3.23x +$22.27#2trade 3 at 20 Oct 20:42 0.61x -$3.89#3trade 4 at 20 Oct 21:52 0.15x -$8.54#4trade 5 at 20 Oct 22:45 0.75x -$2.51#5trade 6 at 21 Oct 01:03 0.66x -$3.41#6trade 7 at 21 Oct 01:36 0.63x -$3.67#7trade 8 at 21 Oct 06:54 0.82x -$1.77#8trade 9 at 21 Oct 08:02 1.17x +$1.74#9trade 10 at 21 Oct 11:57 0.64x -$3.60#10trade 11 at 21 Oct 17:23 0.65x -$3.51#11trade 12 at 21 Oct 19:03 2.70x +$16.99#12trade 13 at 21 Oct 23:45 0.66x -$3.44#13trade 14 at 22 Oct 02:08 0.66x -$3.42#14trade 15 at 22 Oct 04:26 4.00x +$29.97#15trade 16 at 22 Oct 06:43 0.63x -$3.73#16trade 17 at 22 Oct 08:59 0.65x -$3.46#17trade 18 at 22 Oct 10:40 0.70x -$2.98#18trade 19 at 22 Oct 11:05 1.53x +$5.31#19trade 20 at 22 Oct 15:45 1.03x +$0.31#2020 Oct21 Oct21 Oct22 Oct22 Oct
Every trade (exit rule H)
#PoolTimeInWhy soldResult
200x241919430981ae65d036a3fad4d207ba9c192ccc22 Oct 15:45$10trail1.03x (+3.1%)
+$0.31
190x775b9201eae9512a7626818e5b8775d072b9832f22 Oct 11:05$10trail1.53x (+53.1%)
+$5.31
180xe3a073a531d822fb2f8056dd1fea6e876519909b22 Oct 10:40$10trail0.70x (-29.8%)
-$2.98
170x9e06e292ed5334114a01bc1aff87537f2694762022 Oct 08:59$10trail0.65x (-34.6%)
-$3.46
160x1e2b4bbabf505375f45f0a0b39f4187a93b6c02622 Oct 06:43$10trail0.63x (-37.3%)
-$3.73
150xad7ff23810f149d0900987f2b74790ee6723cda622 Oct 04:26$10trail4.00x (+299.7%)
+$29.97
140x9871a6173bbb4c2852ca249a83428849618d09d522 Oct 02:08$10trail0.66x (-34.2%)
-$3.42
130x8b9dfc554e7fbbfb3100529d8b90f123e7cc11da21 Oct 23:45$10trail0.66x (-34.4%)
-$3.44
120x82fc11f076817e52438d8e41da54edf086d829aa21 Oct 19:03$10trail2.70x (+169.9%)
+$16.99
110x9cf6cdfd1c414bdc14594a67c7ca3eda8b1ea56821 Oct 17:23$10trail0.65x (-35.1%)
-$3.51
100x5e2f7b0c94c972401b6ef5382ac355a70a26122321 Oct 11:57$10trail0.64x (-36.0%)
-$3.60
90xe9d0f67a79a952ff7928c3940a88b5289101dafe21 Oct 08:02$10trail1.17x (+17.4%)
+$1.74
80x0d6d75169f96142a32a5abe54f1f6b13355a240221 Oct 06:54$10trail0.82x (-17.7%)
-$1.77
70x55e0a094ca5d911bcddaea0d4d2751aca668cb8321 Oct 01:36$10trail0.63x (-36.7%)
-$3.67
60x756860e1abab7cd15847c9c643354b9322389cdd21 Oct 01:03$10trail0.66x (-34.1%)
-$3.41
50x230934a337e8c27220ad094963590b807712701a20 Oct 22:45$10trail0.75x (-25.1%)
-$2.51
40x323c591c3b9faa00d58d4568d0b9334e2b22175f20 Oct 21:52$10trail0.15x (-85.4%)
-$8.54
30x0e2521121dede0064f9439ccb026175c62d814a720 Oct 20:42$10trail0.61x (-38.9%)
-$3.89
20x7c06e52a1c1f5713c1c39a30530536c591174fff20 Oct 18:49$10trail3.23x (+222.7%)
+$22.27
10x6a723aa4637eb685fd5759a7b5eb3e296f30e75520 Oct 16:38$10trail1.01x (+0.8%)
+$0.08
Full Test Manager report
# v3cls paper (testmgr4) 22 Oct 09:43 UTC
150-300k FRESH only (pool age<=180 min) hunt 1-3M. Open legs 0.
- H: n 302, mean 0.93x, median 0.66x, win 85, pull 43, time 0