V3CR concentrated runners
miss idea #658 · paper, $10 a trade, since 18 Oct · idea #658 · updated 18 Oct 12:27 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: forward sample n>=20; testmgr4
Still open:
- 18 Oct auditor3: fwd R75 n56 1.00x (replay 1.03), no edge; sell 25/25; retire at decide-by
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: n>=20 mean<1.0 and upper80<1.05. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$2.60
Trades done
56
22 up, 34 down
Best trade
4.8x
Exit rule shown
R75
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 520 trades, mean 0.90x, -$508.31 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule R75, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R75 | 56 | 0.99x | 5 | 0 | 34 | -$2.60 |
| R50 | 56 | 0.78x | 5 | 1 | 51 | -$121.43 |
Every trade (exit rule R75)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0x4ff7d2f1dbc590cbe53e6f57b563e4afd7d5b9ce | 18 Oct 12:24 | $10 | trail | 0.13x (-86.8%) -$8.68 |
| 55 | 0x1208607c2186428794a436e2ad975c1affa28bad | 18 Oct 12:22 | $10 | trail | 0.38x (-62.3%) -$6.23 |
| 54 | 0x774c6694dbf1ba9cb6bf52c4a7eef32bdb1b7ce9 | 18 Oct 11:12 | $10 | trail | 0.82x (-18.1%) -$1.81 |
| 53 | 0x334c1497b2a7f4207455947b83647a175f1acb72 | 18 Oct 10:42 | $10 | trail | 0.57x (-43.0%) -$4.30 |
| 52 | 0x83fc7af14053902f4791f6cbbce6d7f7fcb9266f | 18 Oct 09:37 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 51 | 0xb8c9ad15b4c399fc57ddfd699d77bcaa89e4c3f7 | 18 Oct 08:02 | $10 | trail | 0.81x (-18.5%) -$1.85 |
| 50 | 0x2efd42117778760638e3c73b68732ef75da0bfd8 | 18 Oct 06:37 | $10 | trail | 0.92x (-7.8%) -$0.78 |
| 49 | 0x95132e10b3af68018c6129ea716471a22d890efc | 18 Oct 06:34 | $10 | trail | 0.55x (-44.6%) -$4.46 |
| 48 | 0xb8a261e65879cfc49f5251bff457bd88d8a2d3f1 | 18 Oct 06:30 | $10 | trail | 0.60x (-40.3%) -$4.03 |
| 47 | 0xa512cd41251cf26af7af57280ce7126db6104b4c | 18 Oct 06:25 | $10 | trail | 0.64x (-36.5%) -$3.65 |
| 46 | 0x391f161781ae906c7bef000a824c3cefb0753cf1 | 18 Oct 06:01 | $10 | trail | 0.76x (-23.7%) -$2.37 |
| 45 | 0x9407d7426dc045dc66a28041083c3895fc7fe7a5 | 18 Oct 05:08 | $10 | trail | 4.79x (+379.4%) +$37.94 |
| 44 | 0x0304a03a33af85acc042204f263dd1a1a69cc3d5 | 18 Oct 04:54 | $10 | trail | 0.71x (-29.0%) -$2.90 |
| 43 | 0x0e5a8ae81e0add2edbb9b16b388abb06365ac956 | 18 Oct 04:50 | $10 | trail | 0.50x (-50.3%) -$5.03 |
| 42 | 0x967bd72d823d328aa7e7b3904f2b19e1b41af716 | 18 Oct 04:34 | $10 | trail | 0.17x (-82.6%) -$8.26 |
| 41 | 0xbc3c8ddc3c7c3338dbce92e30e8adfbc138aa067 | 18 Oct 04:23 | $10 | trail | 1.47x (+47.0%) +$4.70 |
| 40 | 0x7ffc6478e8772b7b9920f5b79e65291859fa3866 | 18 Oct 03:40 | $10 | trail | 1.55x (+55.2%) +$5.52 |
| 39 | 0xf43a347151d2e11695f3c08cdb33220b02424d10 | 18 Oct 03:25 | $10 | trail | 0.83x (-16.9%) -$1.69 |
| 38 | 0x7e3fb862ad3f0837c6711d7a3b8f7641f345f48b | 18 Oct 02:44 | $10 | trail | 2.12x (+111.7%) +$11.17 |
| 37 | 0x2238cfc8b21056062b45d04b5dd6864f75096f57 | 18 Oct 02:12 | $10 | trail | 2.25x (+124.6%) +$12.46 |
| 36 | 0xa9a7b7ae5156bcf2aa1b5b624e2acb359aa33067 | 18 Oct 02:04 | $10 | trail | 1.33x (+33.2%) +$3.32 |
| 35 | 0xb2a419fb3ec582ee488a25488b0c89f1b4ca8ea2 | 18 Oct 01:51 | $10 | trail | 1.90x (+89.8%) +$8.98 |
| 34 | 0x3eabe0ae2d11d2f87a55af1205f6dd7dbc52da10 | 18 Oct 01:37 | $10 | trail | 0.85x (-15.0%) -$1.50 |
| 33 | 0x17db23b4c3c19927f3ad15560eda3b67f2fd0a06 | 18 Oct 01:26 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 32 | 0x136dfa720480f5c4b2c587807bc38329864ce61d | 18 Oct 01:01 | $10 | trail | 1.43x (+43.0%) +$4.30 |
| 31 | 0x006160e029429a8437ae0cbfd3b0bd5b235344d1 | 18 Oct 00:59 | $10 | trail | 1.70x (+69.7%) +$6.97 |
| 30 | 0x7bead11eda36890059abdb571cf73da9b531f269 | 18 Oct 00:41 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 29 | 0x15acf87a6ad25605259e2ea76cfc6aa14d72d108 | 18 Oct 00:36 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 28 | 0xd5e1e2a00a5f3084e06d601348438c4357317156 | 18 Oct 00:24 | $10 | trail | 0.81x (-19.2%) -$1.92 |
| 27 | 0x551b2481f4dd0f8db47e3afafba4b9c673494b5b | 18 Oct 00:14 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 26 | 0xa0c4219e79807c4633568ecc45bc58b3c7c7bfad | 17 Oct 23:57 | $10 | trail | 1.47x (+46.9%) +$4.69 |
| 25 | 0x759d7a03487f0b1d4afcd2f02146b3cb8890b4fa | 17 Oct 23:24 | $10 | trail | 1.05x (+5.1%) +$0.51 |
| 24 | 0xead8751790614d79bdb4fa28747a3b03f8a7e8c6 | 17 Oct 22:55 | $10 | trail | 1.21x (+21.3%) +$2.13 |
| 23 | 0x68864fa6909f1062b7a117712249031b280d7131 | 17 Oct 22:09 | $10 | trail | 1.10x (+10.4%) +$1.04 |
| 22 | 0xd55bc994827bf1fc4d95424a5e8f2e7e5c243632 | 17 Oct 22:09 | $10 | trail | 1.04x (+4.2%) +$0.42 |
| 21 | 0x189814abfbd0f6bd6e6b6b9cebed7162ecb1bfe6 | 17 Oct 21:55 | $10 | trail | 0.80x (-20.4%) -$2.04 |
| 20 | 0x66108b8db75273f227f6c73dcc218b8f799187c4 | 17 Oct 21:51 | $10 | trail | 1.35x (+34.9%) +$3.49 |
| 19 | 0x53c21ccb09711cace8b5b0181978c2e05cdb5389 | 17 Oct 21:43 | $10 | trail | 0.65x (-35.0%) -$3.50 |
| 18 | 0x621a49229ecd0e5e8beb0ae72a1e40f4b3840c90 | 17 Oct 21:22 | $10 | trail | 0.99x (-0.9%) -$0.09 |
| 17 | 0x20b0dec763679dd8278353d84126513859362fda | 17 Oct 21:01 | $10 | trail | 2.51x (+151.3%) +$15.13 |
| 16 | 0x3c954cfe26b92caa930ff67f12998ff3f10de21b | 17 Oct 21:00 | $10 | trail | 0.90x (-9.6%) -$0.96 |
| 15 | 0x751547289458ec500bd1441651fd538167b75c39 | 17 Oct 20:36 | $10 | trail | 1.62x (+62.2%) +$6.22 |
| 14 | 0xc14b100f44eaae0f1f78e11696ee75a20ee6334d | 17 Oct 19:53 | $10 | trail | 0.90x (-10.5%) -$1.05 |
| 13 | 0x07c91961377d31de2c72c799b7caa8d6cd52d380 | 17 Oct 19:39 | $10 | trail | 0.80x (-19.7%) -$1.97 |
| 12 | 0x729726a4e5675ba89d9447c364a7e41f69ce49ca | 17 Oct 19:38 | $10 | trail | 1.12x (+12.0%) +$1.20 |
| 11 | 0x3278780c212ea8d9f95bf828f35a819455988642 | 17 Oct 19:33 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 10 | 0x076f1f924c0147d139709049dbbbefbc19a05068 | 17 Oct 19:27 | $10 | trail | 0.83x (-17.2%) -$1.72 |
| 9 | 0x6acb3bf306593e179cd35bb5f3bdfa6d56555d1c | 17 Oct 19:17 | $10 | trail | 2.02x (+102.1%) +$10.21 |
| 8 | 0xf00312fe76aa904324c5d2fdbb92b75585eb5835 | 17 Oct 18:53 | $10 | trail | 1.35x (+35.1%) +$3.51 |
| 7 | 0xfff5b5166e9355e73c9d8656ecc7fb905780a9bb | 17 Oct 18:51 | $10 | trail | 1.05x (+5.3%) +$0.53 |
| 6 | 0xe6d21d28e519d9a79e59a273fafd28f9cfe1cb3c | 17 Oct 18:06 | $10 | trail | 0.89x (-11.4%) -$1.14 |
| 5 | 0x34210edd8e1f3db44b4b738342efb61fddf45d74 | 17 Oct 16:46 | $10 | trail | 1.28x (+27.7%) +$2.77 |
| 4 | 0x20df48f16f89d467ef55ca9fdf971389bba216d3 | 17 Oct 16:40 | $10 | trail | 0.74x (-25.7%) -$2.57 |
| 3 | 0x0849d4b3d0658b5a044f656e0d05a28097b31a97 | 17 Oct 16:00 | $10 | trail | 0.65x (-34.7%) -$3.47 |
| 2 | 0xdd6eba843594740c3a309f135a43a7365ccc76f5 | 17 Oct 15:54 | $10 | trail | 0.82x (-18.4%) -$1.84 |
| 1 | 0x063f4568c12de7038de90cd6e9dc765623fb4554 | 17 Oct 15:13 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
Full Test Manager report