v3 cap-continuation 1.5-6M FRESH+WIDE
Testmgr4 · miss family (capc variant) · paper, $10 a trade, since 20 Oct · idea #706 · updated 23 Oct 03:23 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: 30d replay in trades.csv: n94 mean 1.37x (ex-top3 1.10, tail-driven); fwd n2. testmgr4: auditor on replay if fwd n>=15 by 24 Oct, else retire 24 Oct (low flow ~2/day)
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean<1.0x with upper80<1.05 at fwd n>=20; decide by 24 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$8.45
Trades done
2
1 up, 1 down
Best trade
2.4x
Exit rule shown
H
cross 1.5-6M, age<=180m, stop .5, exit at 30% of peak
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 94 trades, mean 1.37x, +$349.85 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule H, numbered in time order.
Every trade (exit rule H)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0xad7ff23810f149d0900987f2b74790ee6723cda6 | 22 Oct 05:24 | $10 | trail | 0.47x (-53.2%) -$5.32 |
| 1 | 0x55e0a094ca5d911bcddaea0d4d2751aca668cb83 | 21 Oct 02:32 | $10 | time | 2.38x (+137.7%) +$13.77 |
Full Test Manager report
# v3cwy paper (testmgr4) 22 Oct 20:23 UTC 1.5-6M FRESH + WIDE exit hunt 5-20M. Open legs 0. - H: n 96, mean 1.37x, median 0.47x, win 18, pull 2, time 20