v3 cap-continuation 600k-1M FRESH WIDE

Testmgr4 · miss family (capc variant) · paper, $10 a trade, since 21 Oct · idea #727 · updated 23 Oct 03:23 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.

Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven

Waiting for: fwd n>=15

Still open:

Paper run, no real money

Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean<1.0x with upper80<1.05 at fwd n>=20; decide by 25 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.

Total P&L
-$8.75
Trades done
10
1 up, 9 down
Best trade
5.4x
Exit rule shown
H
cross 600k-1M, pool age<=180m, stop .5 trail 70%

Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 175 trades, mean 1.23x, +$395.01 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.

P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)

Each step is a trade with exit rule H, numbered in time order.

-$40-$20$0trade 1 at 20 Oct 10:06 0.46x -$5.38#1trade 2 at 20 Oct 12:36 0.19x -$8.14#2trade 3 at 20 Oct 12:51 0.31x -$6.88#3trade 4 at 20 Oct 13:11 0.14x -$8.57#4trade 5 at 20 Oct 19:33 0.46x -$5.37#5trade 6 at 20 Oct 22:23 0.43x -$5.70#6trade 7 at 21 Oct 01:02 0.47x -$5.30#7trade 8 at 21 Oct 01:46 5.44x +$44.36#8trade 9 at 21 Oct 20:05 0.42x -$5.76#9trade 10 at 22 Oct 04:59 0.80x -$2.01#1020 Oct21 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct
Every trade (exit rule H)
#PoolTimeInWhy soldResult
100xad7ff23810f149d0900987f2b74790ee6723cda622 Oct 04:59$10trail0.80x (-20.1%)
-$2.01
90x82fc11f076817e52438d8e41da54edf086d829aa21 Oct 20:05$10trail0.42x (-57.6%)
-$5.76
80x55e0a094ca5d911bcddaea0d4d2751aca668cb8321 Oct 01:46$10time5.44x (+443.6%)
+$44.36
70xacb29aa89d89091f522bb32b6a6fc8ceacfa57ee21 Oct 01:02$10trail0.47x (-53.0%)
-$5.30
60xaa397e1cdf887e57f6b3ad63025983ea82a0e6a720 Oct 22:23$10trail0.43x (-57.0%)
-$5.70
50x7c06e52a1c1f5713c1c39a30530536c591174fff20 Oct 19:33$10trail0.46x (-53.7%)
-$5.37
40x895cd25eeed9d74b6cbe8b0be58057bad8a3908820 Oct 13:11$10trail0.14x (-85.7%)
-$8.57
30x5f053eaf6fbf73c722e0ce690d1c5a26ddae164c20 Oct 12:51$10trail0.31x (-68.8%)
-$6.88
20x32f3590b77e2ee6d624f21e86010e43168d5336e20 Oct 12:36$10trail0.19x (-81.4%)
-$8.14
10x7720b72267a732936672a326c7811f94d6ec360c20 Oct 10:06$10trail0.46x (-53.8%)
-$5.38
Full Test Manager report
# v3cx6 paper (testmgr4) 22 Oct 20:23 UTC
600k-1M FRESH (age<=180m) WIDE exit hunt 3M+. Open legs 2.
- H: n 185, mean 1.21x, median 0.46x, win 18, pull 2, time 12