V3 FADE skip (cap@300 250k-1M)
Analyst 2 · keep vs skip · paper, $10 a trade, since 14 Oct · idea #567 · updated 18 Oct 02:00 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: forward only from 14 Oct 04:30 BKK; decide by 18 Oct
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: keep mean < skip mean at n20 each, or keep mean <1.0 at n20. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$5.21
Trades done
30
5 up, 25 down
Best trade
4.7x
Exit rule shown
keep
not faded (buy)
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule keep, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| skip both fade flags (would not buy) | 19 | 1.41x | 3 | 0 | 15 | +$77.69 |
| all every pool in band | 49 | 1.15x | 7 | 0 | 40 | +$72.48 |
| keep not faded (buy) | 30 | 0.98x | 4 | 0 | 25 | -$5.21 |
Every trade (exit rule keep)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0xd5e1e2a00a5f3084e06d601348438c4357317156 | 18 Oct 00:29 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 29 | 0x68864fa6909f1062b7a117712249031b280d7131 | 17 Oct 22:14 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 28 | 0x621a49229ecd0e5e8beb0ae72a1e40f4b3840c90 | 17 Oct 21:27 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 27 | 0x3c954cfe26b92caa930ff67f12998ff3f10de21b | 17 Oct 21:05 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 26 | 0xc14b100f44eaae0f1f78e11696ee75a20ee6334d | 17 Oct 19:57 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 25 | 0x07c91961377d31de2c72c799b7caa8d6cd52d380 | 17 Oct 19:43 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 24 | 0x076f1f924c0147d139709049dbbbefbc19a05068 | 17 Oct 19:32 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 23 | 0x18e8d219ea9fdd7fde8118bd2c7aaba9fe2963d0 | 17 Oct 07:45 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 22 | 0x8eb59f8ec0119498461d123ff48b2d7051f7f192 | 17 Oct 05:15 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 21 | 0x563c5ea4c478c01ca5d8cb08a1eccaff117e49f7 | 16 Oct 20:23 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 20 | 0xad65e271f5059a200d28667fbb14f4dc642fa786 | 16 Oct 06:30 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 19 | 0x7cf89128f0e2d30063b45e630dd9dcb1b451ce3e | 16 Oct 06:29 | $10 | time | 3.46x (+246.1%) +$24.61 |
| 18 | 0x66d3a625a910165e923343686d674db09e74935f | 16 Oct 04:50 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 17 | 0x7b3436432ab00faf73db7e6ff54ec392166e1f4e | 16 Oct 01:18 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 16 | 0x03de0b4b9feeaac995d211dbd9825255cc70ae6c | 16 Oct 00:47 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 15 | 0xd39b69cf562643c703c67020318ad44360345add | 16 Oct 00:37 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 14 | 0x013eb0abc0b0b10d3e89dd77a3cf551c3b86a6f6 | 15 Oct 20:19 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 13 | 0xc9c2c7fc90986a4098558284f89e7428f6ee9004 | 15 Oct 19:04 | $10 | tp | 4.65x (+365.0%) +$36.50 |
| 12 | 0x33d94dd2721671c17a71a41787a9cc76daf6ddcb | 15 Oct 14:01 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 11 | 0xcd959f479f29fa78fd77e9b6ceb1a12c2fe7ea9a | 15 Oct 02:51 | $10 | time | 1.84x (+83.8%) +$8.38 |
| 10 | 0x35d9d6c381f1d9a6f3443bca57cca17c9a7d9fb6 | 15 Oct 02:41 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 9 | 0x7d64ab81db1ea82abc444414de5168b09def247c | 14 Oct 18:40 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 8 | 0xe0ac860e951d3b2796a861d48da65e9fbf631fd9 | 14 Oct 15:05 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 7 | 0x5895adf12e0e4c2e209d1f0e0aab003047805acc | 14 Oct 13:30 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 6 | 0x8221efb18a8e7ff887881ef19e4f034432182db4 | 14 Oct 13:01 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 5 | 0x286547ee1bae88cb96d10f4e0bb4f96d332b000d | 14 Oct 11:40 | $10 | tp | 4.65x (+365.0%) +$36.50 |
| 4 | 0x885a1e4736aa6a60acf5404997729f98b6dd2902 | 14 Oct 11:33 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 3 | 0x675f23192061a75c722ce7ccd524c9fe75602dd1 | 14 Oct 11:21 | $10 | tp | 4.65x (+365.0%) +$36.50 |
| 2 | 0x55b49390b9cbc390288aad6e73eaefc168ea929f | 14 Oct 11:14 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 1 | 0x1fc3ac0b0c67aa83073999fa3ed19c4a27e4ae61 | 14 Oct 11:08 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
Full Test Manager report
# V3FADE forward paper test (testmgr, #2374 / ledger #567) - 17 Oct 19:00 UTC
Rule: v3 pool, cap at first+300 s in 250k-1M, entry +303 s, tp5 sl0.5, 7% round-trip slip, pull = 0. Skip = both fade flags (last-60s vol share <13.9% AND buy-rate ratio <0.8). Replay n=289: skip 0.91-1.03 vs keep 1.33-1.35. Hunt: entry +300 s at 250k-1M cap, target 3-5M+ runners.
- Pools passing: 51; waiting 8; open legs 4; skipped {'cap@300 out of band': 679}
- all: n 49, mean 1.15x, median 0.47, <1x 40, pulled 4
- keep (not faded): n 30, mean 0.98x, median 0.47, <1x 25, pulled 3
- skip (faded, would not buy): n 19, mean 1.41x, median 0.93, <1x 15, pulled 1
- Kill: keep mean < skip mean at n>=20 each, or keep mean < 1.0 at n20. Only Ben switches live (D-030).