v3 G + creator pull-history gate (skip creator >=2 prior pulled pools)
Analyst 2 · miss · paper, $10 a trade, since 17 Oct · idea #631 · updated 17 Oct 22:42 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: fwd sample; sell depth at small caps untested
Still open:
- auditor3 17 Oct: UNVERIFIED. fwd n69 1.49x identical to v3crowd G (gate blocked 0 fwd entries; replay delta +0.008x); ex-top3 0.82x; sell depth untested. Merge into v3crowd.
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: fwd n>=20 mean<1.0 and upper80<1.05; decide by 21 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$328.55
Trades done
70
15 up, 55 down
Best trade
21.5x
Exit rule shown
GP
v3crowd G trigger + skip creator with >=2 prior pools pulled (>=30% LP share) before trigger; births.db+lpburn.db
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 539 trades, mean 1.27x, +$1472.09 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule GP, numbered in time order.
Every trade (exit rule GP)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0xd55bc994827bf1fc4d95424a5e8f2e7e5c243632 | 17 Oct 22:09 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 69 | 0x66108b8db75273f227f6c73dcc218b8f799187c4 | 17 Oct 21:51 | $10 | trail | 0.94x (-5.5%) -$0.55 |
| 68 | 0x53c21ccb09711cace8b5b0181978c2e05cdb5389 | 17 Oct 21:43 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 67 | 0xd5af697497f6229acbb5a4120454ffcf98a4f143 | 17 Oct 21:36 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 66 | 0xbe22b55b3aaab09934bfe5948f45caafb0d89e3d | 17 Oct 21:02 | $10 | trail | 8.70x (+770.0%) +$77.00 |
| 65 | 0x20b0dec763679dd8278353d84126513859362fda | 17 Oct 21:02 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 64 | 0x751547289458ec500bd1441651fd538167b75c39 | 17 Oct 20:37 | $10 | trail | 5.37x (+436.5%) +$43.65 |
| 63 | 0x6f35655ff0c6a8fefbab2f5dccd14d595dbc8738 | 17 Oct 20:18 | $10 | trail | 2.58x (+157.8%) +$15.78 |
| 62 | 0xa74daacd9b6d4ebd07f71687ce2f53f3f1f57489 | 17 Oct 20:09 | $10 | trail | 1.27x (+27.1%) +$2.71 |
| 61 | 0x6a880e454825c9a737119457ba5bf3d5c8928f68 | 17 Oct 20:06 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 60 | 0xdfd34bb3a441f8f9bcecad5301af6d4e5d06d998 | 17 Oct 19:49 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 59 | 0x729726a4e5675ba89d9447c364a7e41f69ce49ca | 17 Oct 19:38 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 58 | 0x3278780c212ea8d9f95bf828f35a819455988642 | 17 Oct 19:34 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 57 | 0x6acb3bf306593e179cd35bb5f3bdfa6d56555d1c | 17 Oct 19:17 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 56 | 0xf00312fe76aa904324c5d2fdbb92b75585eb5835 | 17 Oct 18:53 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 55 | 0xfff5b5166e9355e73c9d8656ecc7fb905780a9bb | 17 Oct 18:51 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 54 | 0xbb7f28bba5eb3a7a64c0f5edcc5a6b682a507cbf | 17 Oct 18:31 | $10 | trail | 16.18x (+1518.0%) +$151.80 |
| 53 | 0x47dae79e230de8434d9b6923ca7e4fac241cc27c | 17 Oct 18:15 | $10 | trail | 7.79x (+678.7%) +$67.87 |
| 52 | 0x2ba9e21f5f5ee6509d80749af6f42a71e3d6a8f4 | 17 Oct 18:11 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 51 | 0xb215733f36cdf19260c58f954c0d8035f06f3a77 | 17 Oct 17:42 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 50 | 0x34210edd8e1f3db44b4b738342efb61fddf45d74 | 17 Oct 16:46 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 49 | 0x20df48f16f89d467ef55ca9fdf971389bba216d3 | 17 Oct 16:40 | $10 | trail | 0.71x (-29.0%) -$2.90 |
| 48 | 0xdd6eba843594740c3a309f135a43a7365ccc76f5 | 17 Oct 15:54 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 47 | 0xd1b216473c7e5947400857d18ebad7f75a14f977 | 17 Oct 15:47 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 46 | 0x65a6060fdc5a13643ff1cf3842eded9b3b18fbf7 | 17 Oct 15:19 | $10 | trail | 6.77x (+577.4%) +$57.74 |
| 45 | 0x64289288b542eb64785c100a4564a557372067c9 | 17 Oct 15:16 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 44 | 0x063f4568c12de7038de90cd6e9dc765623fb4554 | 17 Oct 15:13 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 43 | 0x571baa92b40a7a8f5ffc5be9e11fe42274c78cdb | 17 Oct 14:43 | $10 | trail | 1.86x (+86.3%) +$8.63 |
| 42 | 0x053eb8774314d433dc31624402555fa38005db36 | 17 Oct 14:43 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 41 | 0xae1458823e3a2cb25c08d737bfd8e39294c2b619 | 17 Oct 14:23 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 40 | 0xf641818d77a60963be8d871dc7b59316e0e62eea | 17 Oct 14:19 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 39 | 0xf33d8e3975921907e285e8b9ad38099265b949e5 | 17 Oct 13:59 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 38 | 0x91c0c5ec99d46110cb98feaac835be5a6c3902cf | 17 Oct 13:37 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 37 | 0x0107bbdfe38f03f8f32f6159b430b2173c0382f4 | 17 Oct 13:24 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 36 | 0x5c9b809dd5ae7fb1c0b14b838e0f43de5194644e | 17 Oct 13:22 | $10 | trail | 2.15x (+114.7%) +$11.47 |
| 35 | 0xeb68968afde6b507fa6a9fd623ef5dde3b9f6e8b | 17 Oct 13:11 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 34 | 0x9bb8c48ab5a01de0712149e7e8e6fb97c543d707 | 17 Oct 11:50 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 33 | 0xbd564f55c345f2bfccf4f3772f22d2bb4b6e8c2c | 17 Oct 10:32 | $10 | trail | 0.72x (-28.0%) -$2.80 |
| 32 | 0x4059923068eafe34882c9c5c90ea5f3e05678e2e | 17 Oct 10:28 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 31 | 0x8c665005361b0db2900544ffca15fc0dc4883c6d | 17 Oct 09:49 | $10 | trail | 4.30x (+330.4%) +$33.04 |
| 30 | 0x3ca3d99a32bdea1c48c51f59aa36e4a1c593ae0e | 17 Oct 09:46 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 29 | 0x0e9549e3a25ea7f38c92842fcbc7d84337d26bb5 | 17 Oct 09:21 | $10 | trail | 2.38x (+138.4%) +$13.84 |
| 28 | 0xc2d8f3eb808398c4655faf490569d3c17841d3aa | 17 Oct 09:10 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 27 | 0x36fd4f108973c2ed7451f336384738a191a4667f | 17 Oct 09:06 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 26 | 0x51d37ebfa43c0ef7ce3308931837e6d9d03b1dc3 | 17 Oct 08:54 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 25 | 0x9c5225d925bad6c753b81e9e9c607a0c73878b4a | 17 Oct 08:44 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 24 | 0x018c307690412d03d3a5998874ee1ad998d704dd | 17 Oct 07:48 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 23 | 0xd8053640204b29975f6f1d5770782372764437f9 | 17 Oct 07:15 | $10 | trail | 11.29x (+1029.0%) +$102.90 |
| 22 | 0xf20b9ed4884f9ea6db41b6fba4cb6865f503855e | 17 Oct 07:12 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 21 | 0xda0932ae9b95b2c072cfe6e927f7b4ecb7777cc4 | 17 Oct 07:09 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 20 | 0xda7d8b8717a1c1dd1b58fa3012b4aa43dcb0c073 | 17 Oct 06:53 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 19 | 0xa43f16017ec888a3a5d3ca38060afe46b5ab22e6 | 17 Oct 06:50 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 18 | 0x1f6d83106fffaa2ac0061b667252faed7b2a944a | 17 Oct 06:45 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 17 | 0x19aec8e122b0b5c5256eb0a4436464e5062e62f2 | 17 Oct 06:25 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 16 | 0x40d50005b689665cddb80984d9a8155672eb3c7b | 17 Oct 06:23 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 15 | 0x31eb8036b9e50b44796d41c97ab5775833b82939 | 17 Oct 06:21 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 14 | 0x58d9ab51de8242f331699b54f6c6f5992b73f55f | 17 Oct 02:51 | $10 | trail | 21.51x (+2051.2%) +$205.12 |
| 13 | 0x4c58b397c423ecd4b1670bb6e2176ea976fd905d | 17 Oct 02:27 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 12 | 0x55b910a11b2f31f1d10c08db852394f9f40bcacf | 17 Oct 02:21 | $10 | trail | 1.83x (+83.1%) +$8.31 |
| 11 | 0x6f059b6c9e0c5e365a76752f1d6f70270dddcc6e | 17 Oct 02:20 | $10 | trail | 6.49x (+549.4%) +$54.94 |
| 10 | 0x76ba92473ecb61258645ee5d337e8b57f96143e1 | 17 Oct 02:18 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 9 | 0x87fd95d0256613dc7143a2079048cb72c2f73eb8 | 17 Oct 02:16 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 8 | 0xfa0c1f331861c41b63effcda14d6aeabf173497d | 17 Oct 02:10 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 7 | 0xe060b4a2d0155bbdd8a1ccdc226dda1cf0980b8d | 17 Oct 02:05 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 6 | 0x9ed21bd7ce9e433e21754234248c6b3bce0d4dfa | 17 Oct 02:04 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 5 | 0x37437fcf0b9dd7b99740dd7d4df8d61504c3f98b | 17 Oct 02:01 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 4 | 0xfe143677365a373535aa610d463188e49829cd67 | 17 Oct 01:57 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 3 | 0x8d041f2b2e391e7b10be1df309d54f6c93cb3926 | 17 Oct 01:51 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 2 | 0x2bbaf8ead581a7cc51d0f32610c32287e1fbed3c | 17 Oct 01:49 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 1 | 0xe6d75b1490f1d92ade8c5bbc698ce7bd6c4c2fa1 | 17 Oct 01:27 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
Full Test Manager report
# V3-CROWD paper test (Test Manager) - 17 Oct 15:42 UTC
Arms (ledger #622 G crowd age<=120 cap>=8k signers>=10; #623 F net-inflow age<=300 cap>=10k net>=1.5ETH; #624 MOM cap +60s/+30s>=1.2, tp5 stop.5). Entry 15 s after trigger, 1%+2% each side, pull = 0. Hunt: enter 8-60k in first minutes, ride to 1M+. Kill: fwd main arm G mean < 1.05 at n20; decide by 21 Oct.
- Skipped {'G entry cap': 224, 'F entry cap': 247, 'GP entry cap': 209, 'E entry cap': 86, 'MOM entry cap': 2, 'GP creator>=2 prior pulls': 22}; waiting 461; open legs 1
- Arm G forward: n 70, mean 1.47x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 15, tp 0, trail 18, stop 0, pull 52, time 0
- Arm G replay: n 546, mean 1.26x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 139, tp 0, trail 166, stop 15, pull 365, time 0
- Arm F forward: n 65, mean 1.45x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 16, tp 0, trail 19, stop 0, pull 46, time 0
- Arm F replay: n 486, mean 1.22x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 136, tp 0, trail 164, stop 23, pull 299, time 0
- Arm MOM forward: n 34, mean 1.41x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 10, tp 10, trail 0, stop 2, pull 22, time 0
- Arm MOM replay: n 348, mean 1.47x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 108, tp 103, trail 0, stop 45, pull 193, time 7
- Arm E forward: n 34, mean 2.46x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 12, tp 0, trail 15, stop 0, pull 19, time 0
- Arm E replay: n 238, mean 1.49x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 66, tp 0, trail 79, stop 11, pull 148, time 0
- Arm GP forward: n 70, mean 1.47x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 15, tp 0, trail 18, stop 0, pull 52, time 0
- Arm GP replay: n 539, mean 1.27x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 138, tp 0, trail 162, stop 14, pull 363, time 0
- Not tested: outside-wallet sell depth at small caps. Replay includes pull-to-0 (analyst replays had none).