V3 late 1M milestone

Analyst 1 · v3 age 12-90 min, $20k bought at cap>=1M, tp2/3/5 stop .5 · paper, $10 a trade, since 10 Oct · idea #660 #265 · updated 12 Oct 07:10 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.

Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven

Waiting for: 15 closed filtered arms (62 rows incl. tp2u 17): tp2 1.02x, tp3 1.40x, tp5 1.58x, median 0.46x. Next: 25 closed (~10 more, ~2 days); kill if tp2 <1.0x then; else 5-check audit. Owner testmgr3.

Still open:

Not audited yet

Paper run, no real money

Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: tp2 mean < 1.0x after 25 closed trades; 10 losses in a row. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.

Total P&L

+$17.66

Trades done

2 up, 0 down

Best trade

1.9x

Exit rule shown

tp2

sell 2x (main)

Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 62 trades, mean 1.25x, +$157.39 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.

P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)

Each step is a trade with exit rule tp2, numbered in time order.

Other exit rules on the same coins

Rule	Trades	Mean	2x+	Losers	P&L at $10
tp2 sell 2x (main)	2	1.88x	0	0	+$17.66
tp3 sell 3x	2	1.65x	1	1	+$12.94
tp2u	3	1.33x	0	1	+$9.99
tp5 sell 5x	2	0.47x	0	2	-$10.71

Every trade (exit rule tp2)

#	Pool	Time	In	Why sold	Result
2	0xa84da3db805362edfb3f6154097b3af92984a772	12 Oct 04:13	$10	tp	1.88x (+88.3%) +$8.83
1	0xae0e93c0d2c43886b4f840a0675b845c675a88fc	12 Oct 03:25	$10	tp	1.88x (+88.3%) +$8.83

Full Test Manager report

# V3-LATE-1M paper test (testmgr3) - 12 Oct 00:10 UTC

Rule (A1 #660, fw/a1-iter31.md): v3 ETH-quote pool, age 12-90 min, fair $1M milestone ($20k bought at cap >= $1M), cap at trigger < 1.6M, pool >= 0.1 ETH, no pull before; skip (A1 #1031/iter37) if insider share of $300k-1M buys >= 0.243 or age > 60 min; buy 6 s after; stop 0.5x; tp 2x (main) / 3x / 5x; 4 h; pull = 0. 1% fee + 2% impact each side. Hunt: 1M-3M late runners, tail 5-10M.
- Pools seen 1639; waiting 0; open 0; skipped {'age outside 12-90': 23, 'cap at trigger >= 1.6M': 1, 'pool depth < 0.1 ETH': 1}
- tp2: n 17, mean 1.12x, median 0.46x, win 8, tp 8, stop 9, pull 0, time 0
- tp3: n 17, mean 1.43x, median 0.46x, win 7, tp 7, stop 10, pull 0, time 0
- tp5: n 17, mean 1.45x, median 0.46x, win 4, tp 4, stop 13, pull 0, time 0
- tp2u: n 20, mean 1.08x, median 0.47x, win 9, tp 9, stop 11, pull 0, time 0 (unfiltered baseline)
- A1 sim expected mean 1.46x (tp2), ~4 entries/day. Kill: tp2 mean < 1.0x after 25 closed trades, or 10 losses in a row.
- Not tested: real fill depth at 1M cap, outside sellers, sellability.