V3 1M-crossing chaser
Analyst 2/1 · depth>=20k at 1M crossing, born<150k · paper, $10 a trade, since 11 Oct · idea #492 · updated 13 Oct 00:10 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: Auditor3 FIX: sell proof done; true forward n~5, set FWD const, need fwd C10 n>=15 in band 1.17-2.4. Owner testmgr3.
Still open:
- sell proof DONE 50/50
- fwd C10 n=19 mean 0.74x, BELOW replay band 1.17-2.4 -> not verified; kill at C5 n>=30 if mean<1.0
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: C5 mean <1.0x after 40 closed. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$59.92
Trades done
20
2 up, 18 down
Best trade
4.7x
Exit rule shown
C5
tp5 sl.3
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 180 trades, mean 1.20x, +$357.44 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule C5, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B half 3x half 10x | 20 | 0.85x | 1 | 0 | 17 | -$29.27 |
| A3 sell 3x | 20 | 0.78x | 3 | 0 | 17 | -$43.23 |
| C10 tp10 sl.3 | 19 | 0.74x | 1 | 0 | 18 | -$49.91 |
| C5 tp5 sl.3 | 20 | 0.70x | 2 | 0 | 18 | -$59.92 |
Every trade (exit rule C5)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0x893bfab2af0c4f0fa900a7cdb82cad9097130687 | 12 Oct 23:44 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-74.1%) -$7.41 |
| 19 | 0x27d4f7df079eef5c803f5d8befca1e037d708947 | 12 Oct 19:05 | $10 | tp | 4.71x (+370.6%) +$37.06 |
| 18 | 0x9b3554e6c26e06ebe55a7aec4e86e486379c5f6b | 12 Oct 18:51 | $10 | stop | 0.25x (-75.3%) -$7.53 |
| 17 | 0x00bb17df8548095b2eb77ceab9ccfdff916352be | 12 Oct 18:49 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-73.3%) -$7.33 |
| 16 | 0xcac1414eac15af7a6a5fcc8bd578cbed0f9a4d15 | 12 Oct 17:54 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-71.9%) -$7.19 |
| 15 | 0xc413db014066964952a9c20aa760ef806073e195 | 12 Oct 17:21 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.1%) -$7.21 |
| 14 | 0xa38e5f7ced70829d987df173d714d66da90c5c61 | 12 Oct 17:10 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.3%) -$7.23 |
| 13 | 0x05f8cb3e5dad85c6acc57bc0c8ff5f44b78ad408 | 12 Oct 16:55 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.6%) -$7.26 |
| 12 | 0x336efc6d509c89c700ff4dbe15828dd83d987a63 | 12 Oct 16:04 | $10 | stop | 0.18x (-82.3%) -$8.23 |
| 11 | 0x48094f719a58656eec31291e6a0652142c3113aa | 12 Oct 15:48 | $10 | stop | 0.21x (-79.3%) -$7.93 |
| 10 | 0x0504f58b517948745eba7ece065599e062219ed4 | 12 Oct 15:47 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-73.8%) -$7.38 |
| 9 | 0x2c3cb57c191d6890576a51582e799083fb34182e | 12 Oct 15:29 | $10 | stop | 0.13x (-86.7%) -$8.67 |
| 8 | 0x449a7e471ebfd47b4f42dad307f40a66e2019f8d | 12 Oct 13:01 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.0%) -$7.20 |
| 7 | 0x430251e2e5db816a1ccfc9db708347060fc6cb1a | 12 Oct 09:30 | $10 | tp | 4.71x (+370.6%) +$37.06 |
| 6 | 0xa84da3db805362edfb3f6154097b3af92984a772 | 12 Oct 03:45 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.5%) -$7.25 |
| 5 | 0xa20e64ecf8b0e7581e526e023e61d8bc889d4229 | 12 Oct 03:44 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-71.9%) -$7.19 |
| 4 | 0xae0e93c0d2c43886b4f840a0675b845c675a88fc | 12 Oct 03:17 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.0%) -$7.20 |
| 3 | 0x0359b9be1a868c39657ed799e83d98f128c3dcbe | 12 Oct 00:37 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-73.7%) -$7.37 |
| 2 | 0x973ac818af14aad900bd4d7b70bb46d306b131e3 | 11 Oct 22:07 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.6%) -$7.26 |
| 1 | 0x0b2cd528f3d28c34464037837c05ea3b092826da | 11 Oct 21:35 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.0%) -$7.20 |
Full Test Manager report
# V3-M1 paper test (testmgr) - 12 Oct 17:10 UTC
Rule (A2 sec.2 fw/a2-miss-11oct.md #1783/#1792; A1 fw/a1-1705.md #1790): v3 pool, first-swap cap <150k, first swap at cap >=1M (the 1M crossing), ETH-side depth >=20k USD there, no pull before; buy 3 s after; 1% fee + 2% impact each side; pull = 0; 6 h time stop. Hunt: enter 1M, target 3-10M.
Arms: A3 = sell all at 3x, stop .5 | B = half at 3x, half at 10x, stop .5 (rest stop 1x) | C5 = tp5 stop .3 | C10 = tp10 stop .3 (A1 arms). Cohort A1 = 300k->1M gap >=180 s and age <120 min.
- Pools reaching 1M 70; waiting 0; open legs 9; skipped {'depth <20k': 3}
- ALL: A3: n 65, mean 0.78x, median 0.46x, win 9, tp 9, stop 55, pull 0, time 1 / B: n 65, mean 0.91x, median 0.46x, win 9, tp 4, stop 60, pull 0, time 1
- ALL: C5: n 65, mean 1.09x, median 0.28x, win 12, tp 12, stop 52, pull 0, time 1 / C10: n 64, mean 1.49x, median 0.28x, win 9, tp 8, stop 54, pull 0, time 2
- A1 cohort: C5: n 33, mean 1.22x, median 0.28x, win 7, tp 7, stop 25, pull 0, time 1 / C10: n 33, mean 1.94x, median 0.28x, win 6, tp 6, stop 26, pull 0, time 1
- A1 cohort A2 arms: A3: n 33, mean 0.89x, median 0.46x, win 6, tp 6, stop 26, pull 0, time 1 / B: n 33, mean 1.10x, median 0.46x, win 6, tp 3, stop 29, pull 0, time 1
- Expected (sims): A1 mean 1.5-1.7 (tp5/tp10 sl.3); A2 peak-based P3M 55%. Kill: A3 and C5 mean <1.2 after 30 closed (A1: 40), or fills fail.
- Not tested: real fill depth at 1M cap, router sell failures. Depth = pool_eth_after*ETHUSD (ETH side only; radar depth_usd may count both sides, so this is stricter).