V3 1M ride
Analyst 1 · buy first $1M cap, age<120 m, tp5 sl.3 · paper, $10 a trade, since 16 Oct · idea #67 · updated 18 Oct 04:01 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
RETIRED: these paper numbers are not reachable with real money
Re-run 16 Oct (#2595 test floor): own tape replay+forward; ride $1M cap to 5x; decide 20 Oct
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean <1.0x after 30 closed. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$3.70
Trades done
60
10 up, 50 down
Best trade
4.7x
Exit rule shown
ALL
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule ALL, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGE60 | 47 | 1.18x | 10 | 0 | 37 | +$84.66 |
| ALL | 60 | 0.99x | 10 | 0 | 50 | -$3.70 |
Every trade (exit rule ALL)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0xf325ba617b8019fa399bda00e6c6f101d5b58478 | 18 Oct 03:38 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-71.9%) -$7.19 |
| 59 | 0x3eabe0ae2d11d2f87a55af1205f6dd7dbc52da10 | 18 Oct 02:13 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-71.9%) -$7.19 |
| 58 | 0xd5e1e2a00a5f3084e06d601348438c4357317156 | 18 Oct 00:56 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-71.9%) -$7.19 |
| 57 | 0xbe22b55b3aaab09934bfe5948f45caafb0d89e3d | 17 Oct 22:23 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.0%) -$7.20 |
| 56 | 0x68864fa6909f1062b7a117712249031b280d7131 | 17 Oct 22:20 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.4%) -$7.24 |
| 55 | 0xc14b100f44eaae0f1f78e11696ee75a20ee6334d | 17 Oct 20:36 | $10 | stop | 0.21x (-79.2%) -$7.92 |
| 54 | 0xd8053640204b29975f6f1d5770782372764437f9 | 17 Oct 09:00 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.2%) -$7.22 |
| 53 | 0xc1534205a6b6d8c8557fd4d59e3b3bed791ba7d9 | 17 Oct 06:11 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-73.6%) -$7.36 |
| 52 | 0x07838fb56c5ecbdcba3ad60d4a51954476860d3a | 17 Oct 05:45 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.4%) -$7.24 |
| 51 | 0x5394583bc2ce97d5f515ff5729caff756df2e3d1 | 17 Oct 05:07 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-73.0%) -$7.30 |
| 50 | 0x58d9ab51de8242f331699b54f6c6f5992b73f55f | 17 Oct 04:37 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.2%) -$7.22 |
| 49 | 0x116b18cabde1fc2f91c268422c12ed33aa2d4eac | 17 Oct 01:38 | $10 | stop | 0.25x (-75.1%) -$7.51 |
| 48 | 0xad65e271f5059a200d28667fbb14f4dc642fa786 | 16 Oct 06:38 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.6%) -$7.26 |
| 47 | 0x7cf89128f0e2d30063b45e630dd9dcb1b451ce3e | 16 Oct 06:37 | $10 | time | 3.24x (+224.2%) +$22.42 |
| 46 | 0x7b3436432ab00faf73db7e6ff54ec392166e1f4e | 16 Oct 01:40 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.3%) -$7.23 |
| 45 | 0x03de0b4b9feeaac995d211dbd9825255cc70ae6c | 16 Oct 00:53 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 44 | 0xcd959f479f29fa78fd77e9b6ceb1a12c2fe7ea9a | 15 Oct 02:57 | $10 | time | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 43 | 0xea0d871041ba1155bde8ca8ba489d1e2b361e6b8 | 14 Oct 23:51 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.1%) -$7.21 |
| 42 | 0x880cc22678c825f47001e862553dc182880f3982 | 14 Oct 16:12 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.6%) -$7.26 |
| 41 | 0x8221efb18a8e7ff887881ef19e4f034432182db4 | 14 Oct 13:12 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 40 | 0x286547ee1bae88cb96d10f4e0bb4f96d332b000d | 14 Oct 11:40 | $10 | tp | 4.71x (+370.6%) +$37.06 |
| 39 | 0x1fc3ac0b0c67aa83073999fa3ed19c4a27e4ae61 | 14 Oct 11:08 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.7%) -$7.27 |
| 38 | 0x1a2d37c436446fbcdecabf9aee776fb7dcd4626e | 14 Oct 05:23 | $10 | tp | 4.71x (+370.6%) +$37.06 |
| 37 | 0xfa83d3d94ed51f991c78231cda9e18099e731398 | 14 Oct 04:35 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.4%) -$7.24 |
| 36 | 0x20430c7a7d0e53c7fa9fdd42f87cbde4068c7be0 | 14 Oct 02:18 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.5%) -$7.25 |
| 35 | 0xae9f22cc9fd8cbeb8de73cff48ddf446e3500565 | 13 Oct 22:04 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.8%) -$7.28 |
| 34 | 0xcac1414eac15af7a6a5fcc8bd578cbed0f9a4d15 | 12 Oct 17:54 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-71.9%) -$7.19 |
| 33 | 0xc413db014066964952a9c20aa760ef806073e195 | 12 Oct 17:21 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.1%) -$7.21 |
| 32 | 0x2c3cb57c191d6890576a51582e799083fb34182e | 12 Oct 15:29 | $10 | stop | 0.13x (-86.7%) -$8.67 |
| 31 | 0x430251e2e5db816a1ccfc9db708347060fc6cb1a | 12 Oct 09:30 | $10 | tp | 4.71x (+370.6%) +$37.06 |
| 30 | 0xa84da3db805362edfb3f6154097b3af92984a772 | 12 Oct 03:45 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.5%) -$7.25 |
| 29 | 0xa20e64ecf8b0e7581e526e023e61d8bc889d4229 | 12 Oct 03:44 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-71.9%) -$7.19 |
| 28 | 0xae0e93c0d2c43886b4f840a0675b845c675a88fc | 12 Oct 03:17 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.0%) -$7.20 |
| 27 | 0x973ac818af14aad900bd4d7b70bb46d306b131e3 | 11 Oct 22:07 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.6%) -$7.26 |
| 26 | 0x54cba0b47dbead0411c383d727a2366ef2f6ddb8 | 11 Oct 01:50 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.1%) -$7.21 |
| 25 | 0xb8a3bc9d428e82096e672079900dcbda0f3e3b21 | 10 Oct 12:20 | $10 | stop | 0.12x (-87.5%) -$8.75 |
| 24 | 0x2523ca3768a80ef68d431be431b1fc092458f9c4 | 10 Oct 03:21 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.3%) -$7.23 |
| 23 | 0x6d6ea481d774569935261ba1c6d533e2b6669ed8 | 09 Oct 23:31 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.9%) -$7.29 |
| 22 | 0x89f229f58fdf13c74091675e742ac078de909ade | 09 Oct 19:03 | $10 | tp | 4.71x (+370.6%) +$37.06 |
| 21 | 0x79c499dba9e823b53286fbc5da47f3512d501918 | 09 Oct 14:33 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-74.2%) -$7.42 |
| 20 | 0x1488b4dd731ebd5db79efb0317aa7e7b93e22c02 | 09 Oct 00:17 | $10 | stop | 0.24x (-76.1%) -$7.61 |
| 19 | 0x87e0f8b63c534b22d16e82779de425c00ebcf84d | 08 Oct 20:26 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.0%) -$7.20 |
| 18 | 0x66fa7f534fd7a4ec28df51b4ea08866493ab95a2 | 08 Oct 20:08 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-71.9%) -$7.19 |
| 17 | 0xc03ee81a630c930ccf32d6beeb103596a9a19625 | 08 Oct 19:49 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.0%) -$7.20 |
| 16 | 0x87a58fa5bc762be839c699659021ce26d1875be5 | 08 Oct 18:57 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.1%) -$7.21 |
| 15 | 0xf51a9b0f90dfc670949e263dee84ed3b67cf6856 | 08 Oct 16:47 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-74.3%) -$7.43 |
| 14 | 0x5e1a6254492f45971bfc10568c1bafa8337ce79b | 08 Oct 12:46 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-71.9%) -$7.19 |
| 13 | 0x1dada0944e6a1ad3bf04c0c39dea5e6e3776bc08 | 08 Oct 08:32 | $10 | tp | 4.71x (+370.6%) +$37.06 |
| 12 | 0x2569799494c3095cd9e317c61cdd69b45e3c48ce | 08 Oct 02:19 | $10 | stop | 0.23x (-77.1%) -$7.71 |
| 11 | 0x5183b2850bb856c9ea714e284eb18904284fa413 | 08 Oct 01:45 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-73.3%) -$7.33 |
| 10 | 0x5d07d9472723803073b594f582149ca82ffec1c2 | 08 Oct 01:40 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.3%) -$7.23 |
| 9 | 0x7fcbd824d7c5d4d78a8144672180ed55196eaf94 | 07 Oct 22:03 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.6%) -$7.26 |
| 8 | 0x48b07961081a4ddcad63eeaf66293e10c8854469 | 07 Oct 18:46 | $10 | tp | 4.71x (+370.6%) +$37.06 |
| 7 | 0x644eac7020466c554369e0592637f24dd95fbb13 | 07 Oct 15:23 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-74.1%) -$7.41 |
| 6 | 0x86303aff9563213a7c5f877bbe15eacde98d7c50 | 07 Oct 13:38 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-71.9%) -$7.19 |
| 5 | 0xddefc8467c9b77e3f2c1525e0cb0f453e4408fc0 | 07 Oct 09:19 | $10 | time | 0.89x (-10.6%) -$1.06 |
| 4 | 0x8da021f34c2f2a95696c4fd842b0cd0cc4e18468 | 06 Oct 23:45 | $10 | tp | 4.71x (+370.6%) +$37.06 |
| 3 | 0x206211d456a3a9dbe45e13507aac5131ace9c716 | 06 Oct 19:04 | $10 | tp | 4.71x (+370.6%) +$37.06 |
| 2 | 0x4fdcc31f5514644bf512b296057f025ddd4f9308 | 06 Oct 16:46 | $10 | tp | 4.71x (+370.6%) +$37.06 |
| 1 | 0x4d8b2411255580b19a0b9fc90ed36ee15e7e1af5 | 06 Oct 13:44 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.0%) -$7.20 |
Full Test Manager report
# A1-V3-1M-RIDE paper test (Test Manager) - 17 Oct 21:01 UTC
Rule (fw/a1-iter23-requests.md, #474): v3 fee-100 pools; first swap with cap >= $1M, pool age < 120 min, $300k first crossed >= 180 s earlier, no pull before; buy 3 s after (next swap); sell at 5x / 0.3x / 6 h; pull = 0. 1% fee + 2% impact each side. Cap = mcap_usd from v3live.db (its ETHUSD). Replay of pools created since 6 Oct 00:00 UTC (whole tape), grows with the tape.
- Pools seen 2551; waiting 0; open 0; skipped {'never $1M': 2389, 'one-print jump (<180s from $300k)': 92, 'age>=120min': 10}
- Result: n 60, mean 0.99x, median 0.28x, win(>1x) 10, tp 9, stop 46, pull 2, time 3
- By day: 06 Oct: n4 3.60x, 07 Oct: n8 0.90x, 08 Oct: n8 0.83x, 09 Oct: n4 1.38x, 10 Oct: n2 0.20x, 11 Oct: n4 0.28x, 12 Oct: n4 1.35x, 13 Oct: n4 1.38x, 14 Oct: n6 1.08x, 15 Oct: n4 0.95x, 16 Oct: n5 0.27x, 17 Oct: n7 0.27x
- AGE60 arm (#74, age at $1M < 60 min): n 47, mean 1.18x, median 0.28x, win(>1x) 10, tp 9, stop 34, pull 2, time 2; age 60-120: n 13, mean 0.32x, median 0.28x, win(>1x) 0, tp 0, stop 12, pull 0, time 1. A3 replay: <60 min 1.56 n92 vs 60-180 min 1.09. Kill: AGE60 mean not above rest by 0.2 after 30 coins.
- Longest loss streak: 13. A1 sim expected mean 1.64x, win rate 30%, n=114 in 17 days. Kill: mean < 1.0x after 30 closed trades.
- Not tested: real fill depth at $1M cap, outside money. Ready for live only after 2 profitable days, no bugs, enough trades; only Ben switches (D-030).