V3-VEARLY
v3 first swap cap>=10k age<=300s, entry cap<30k, ETH>=1, +15s, stop .6 / trail .5 (A) .65 (B) · paper, $10 a trade, since 16 Oct · idea #617 · updated 23 Oct 03:23 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Verified by the Test Manager
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: fwd arm A mean<1.05 at n20; decide-by 20 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$734.36
Trades done
95
31 up, 64 down
Best trade
15.6x
Exit rule shown
A
trail 50%
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 336 trades, mean 1.93x, +$3133.48 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B trail 65% | 95 | 2.00x | 30 | 5 | 55 | +$951.26 |
| A trail 50% | 95 | 1.77x | 27 | 2 | 64 | +$734.36 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0x0578ab7d96c68849d4b4bbff3ba636689d807bb6 | 23 Oct 01:46 | $10 | trail | 4.97x (+396.9%) +$39.69 |
| 94 | 0x8dbebbf1e65d9d185d9fdfac59c155b5c6d84964 | 22 Oct 23:38 | $10 | trail | 9.83x (+882.7%) +$88.27 |
| 93 | 0xd38e6a169ce2347b028f3483948f46fb9a5624ad | 22 Oct 23:09 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 92 | 0x90b154c2add7bd0d516f5e6b8f56c91cf92ba644 | 22 Oct 23:04 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 91 | 0xfdfab49212efbb0701b8c2ef5d2b8e1e70b8fed6 | 22 Oct 20:46 | $10 | trail | 7.28x (+628.4%) +$62.84 |
| 90 | 0x91ccffb2a3cf82284e96d3f5b59eb93454722d24 | 22 Oct 20:19 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 89 | 0x0712a3857552eda95a23721ec2d40c8e248e1047 | 22 Oct 20:09 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 88 | 0x3cff6647da63a6f4b70060c0e4c6509159cbf2b0 | 22 Oct 13:58 | $10 | stop | 0.51x (-49.4%) -$4.94 |
| 87 | 0x94a1b3e7289269df2b6bb05bcf791bde9217bc19 | 22 Oct 13:12 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 86 | 0xe3a073a531d822fb2f8056dd1fea6e876519909b | 22 Oct 10:19 | $10 | trail | 7.39x (+639.4%) +$63.94 |
| 85 | 0xbcbd1c9fa3f835d44babef670eed9f9a5e343039 | 22 Oct 07:54 | $10 | trail | 2.98x (+198.4%) +$19.84 |
| 84 | 0xd1200ca239f33fc6a7a3e9df4aaf4792515d196b | 22 Oct 05:55 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 83 | 0x9871a6173bbb4c2852ca249a83428849618d09d5 | 22 Oct 01:09 | $10 | trail | 7.68x (+668.5%) +$66.85 |
| 82 | 0x6ab6168fb8f4c3a8c1bf1417226a5246a15b8341 | 21 Oct 19:24 | $10 | trail | 0.72x (-28.4%) -$2.84 |
| 81 | 0x467c16b53a91803757e098cdd0e7de478bd379b9 | 21 Oct 09:55 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 80 | 0x138b92f924181af74a423e67e3a180d20584385a | 21 Oct 04:00 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 79 | 0xed0d179ab63a817218c094c2a262153cce4e12b1 | 21 Oct 00:40 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 78 | 0x756860e1abab7cd15847c9c643354b9322389cdd | 21 Oct 00:12 | $10 | trail | 2.04x (+103.5%) +$10.35 |
| 77 | 0x0eb5adf726ca4b7ecc3e5ac254ca56a85d1955a3 | 20 Oct 22:18 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 76 | 0x39781773fc10a84d59ecc3bd62628c7beb43f9c9 | 20 Oct 22:06 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 75 | 0x60831bfd72e49a57de41e12144e567e9297bb240 | 20 Oct 12:59 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 74 | 0x3f76de9f725bd1bf84aba4cd86d75f83cde82bca | 20 Oct 11:25 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 73 | 0xb5137c6d79c43d14d65a014d851a6a9abdf56adc | 20 Oct 07:04 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 72 | 0xe5e95519c086f2a3126fe50da696271e64c1ca0f | 20 Oct 06:52 | $10 | trail | 3.44x (+243.7%) +$24.37 |
| 71 | 0x5ea22308f367ec3a2e1e8b531b58c2865081bb82 | 20 Oct 06:32 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 70 | 0xe52ab4492acd04a022b598e445c44c2dc835fdd5 | 20 Oct 04:37 | $10 | trail | 2.26x (+126.2%) +$12.62 |
| 69 | 0xe29f2d5cab80d53ac7d0bd63a0a5e4a7d9861124 | 20 Oct 01:50 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 68 | 0x7c7f10ec7e9e1a0a114b1d20c004721246232f44 | 19 Oct 22:06 | $10 | trail | 1.21x (+21.4%) +$2.14 |
| 67 | 0xcc733d4bdb8e2dfc1c2a486aa864662b9b553f7a | 19 Oct 21:27 | $10 | trail | 6.83x (+583.3%) +$58.33 |
| 66 | 0xe165b48e10184a8f18336001c363edd4345925d4 | 19 Oct 20:59 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 65 | 0xd9accfef29c847ca41066069c0f17a7a1dfa1705 | 19 Oct 19:28 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 64 | 0xcbd67d28057e6cc59bc8f05af438f895edc3102d | 19 Oct 19:25 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 63 | 0x5c3d55eb1d781b55050b2025e3ae7fba994aa2b2 | 19 Oct 18:04 | $10 | trail | 0.73x (-27.3%) -$2.73 |
| 62 | 0x0e1f3e817402f03bb24f4da37567f7327fb5a456 | 19 Oct 14:12 | $10 | trail | 0.80x (-19.7%) -$1.97 |
| 61 | 0xc051a4ae9a768818f6a57cd557569d643775c5d3 | 19 Oct 09:01 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 60 | 0x17fca9eba13c91194dfd5bb66f4c572807fb14a9 | 19 Oct 08:49 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 59 | 0xc75261a3268fa771097591dd4e41900da62f79d4 | 19 Oct 07:41 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 58 | 0xb281999680eb6f9c3c45c9fa9a8ff3fff4743379 | 19 Oct 07:19 | $10 | trail | 1.48x (+47.7%) +$4.77 |
| 57 | 0xd050a050585c99714b6052fe91e2f60956773d62 | 19 Oct 02:24 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 56 | 0x6a82cb2c6a15897b19ad0482696a0998361ad0a2 | 19 Oct 01:28 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 55 | 0x8839814571b8b95b3af3760f782d105ca2859ea1 | 18 Oct 23:12 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 54 | 0x9dc2fdffd31777743946a36e43bab6269c7ecdb6 | 18 Oct 22:57 | $10 | trail | 7.59x (+659.0%) +$65.90 |
| 53 | 0x7423c33d2066aed7eb03a09f89da011060353d19 | 18 Oct 22:42 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 52 | 0xf7c685618ac00634badff404f5667085b75d4c27 | 18 Oct 21:38 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 51 | 0x457c016336e5c57c98d962422efd22293f1d7da2 | 18 Oct 21:32 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 50 | 0xd929981c197ded5165fa0e115a5fdd4774a6f6d9 | 18 Oct 21:20 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 49 | 0x68c592f842e8947c4d52489a55c7a8115a99e069 | 18 Oct 21:12 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 48 | 0xa3b9c2b2ce64d893083690077c61953c2af6f30c | 18 Oct 21:01 | $10 | trail | 5.13x (+413.4%) +$41.34 |
| 47 | 0x3cca4995c775a26bbb0fcbbb9228d953ad9c791a | 18 Oct 20:54 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 46 | 0x162d907717c9aa3de835f4e0b88e5982de0c4c7b | 18 Oct 20:45 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 45 | 0x38d1b23fc84d27b24c97a90ef93a8bb8181609e6 | 18 Oct 20:43 | $10 | trail | 2.41x (+141.3%) +$14.13 |
| 44 | 0xb93db59ad17898ac8cb4ec7bd33a1d28b748ccee | 18 Oct 20:33 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 43 | 0x4f6a0d92b2ef3dfaf9dd15762f732206b0d9a50e | 18 Oct 20:20 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 42 | 0xafb16556373c94af14561b7cd90847b0364133d1 | 18 Oct 20:09 | $10 | trail | 1.41x (+40.5%) +$4.05 |
| 41 | 0xcc0134dcc9bc84e6453cd646a06ace9f14df5b3d | 18 Oct 18:21 | $10 | trail | 8.11x (+711.4%) +$71.14 |
| 40 | 0xe24d643c3efaccd25a137147b73dda647adef318 | 18 Oct 18:16 | $10 | trail | 4.56x (+356.3%) +$35.63 |
| 39 | 0x99061013c07805e1a09da09b510b7b70a760b151 | 18 Oct 14:45 | $10 | trail | 0.62x (-38.2%) -$3.82 |
| 38 | 0x113d065b9a813139b5447a0608b68392a6dc5148 | 18 Oct 14:40 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 37 | 0x85a6641c32f763ca956f46df30920efe0030897d | 18 Oct 14:29 | $10 | trail | 3.90x (+289.8%) +$28.98 |
| 36 | 0xbf1382656e7fe5327419acc0bf3aa039ae97b27a | 18 Oct 14:20 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 35 | 0xe24272a584133a8cd3cd1364c666c8065fa77279 | 18 Oct 14:15 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 34 | 0x6a8e27502be99680a1504b862166b0da4d2645f3 | 18 Oct 11:28 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 33 | 0x71bc3b356f35e9442c20eeef67ac58d78a120c04 | 18 Oct 09:11 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 32 | 0xd0900c118958c26e151ae6fde5812d3afdf4ebb0 | 18 Oct 07:13 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 31 | 0xcc1a638e7714ecc2e8e477c1a6259d2ed37bddc4 | 18 Oct 03:07 | $10 | trail | 8.58x (+758.2%) +$75.82 |
| 30 | 0xe0a6614eb0452304d67ba2952d7965f473f2b4d1 | 18 Oct 03:00 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 29 | 0xbac997942cc1415d1b481bdd89a51c9d7ceb8641 | 18 Oct 02:53 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 28 | 0xf325ba617b8019fa399bda00e6c6f101d5b58478 | 18 Oct 02:24 | $10 | trail | 9.34x (+833.7%) +$83.37 |
| 27 | 0x655f6109eb61c246701503251c3fc7d80eeac002 | 18 Oct 00:48 | $10 | stop | 0.53x (-47.2%) -$4.72 |
| 26 | 0x66108b8db75273f227f6c73dcc218b8f799187c4 | 17 Oct 21:51 | $10 | trail | 0.94x (-5.5%) -$0.55 |
| 25 | 0x53c21ccb09711cace8b5b0181978c2e05cdb5389 | 17 Oct 21:43 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 24 | 0x6f35655ff0c6a8fefbab2f5dccd14d595dbc8738 | 17 Oct 20:18 | $10 | trail | 2.76x (+175.6%) +$17.56 |
| 23 | 0xa74daacd9b6d4ebd07f71687ce2f53f3f1f57489 | 17 Oct 20:09 | $10 | trail | 1.52x (+51.6%) +$5.16 |
| 22 | 0xbb7f28bba5eb3a7a64c0f5edcc5a6b682a507cbf | 17 Oct 18:31 | $10 | trail | 15.64x (+1464.5%) +$146.45 |
| 21 | 0xdd6eba843594740c3a309f135a43a7365ccc76f5 | 17 Oct 15:54 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 20 | 0xd1b216473c7e5947400857d18ebad7f75a14f977 | 17 Oct 15:47 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 19 | 0x64289288b542eb64785c100a4564a557372067c9 | 17 Oct 15:16 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 18 | 0xf641818d77a60963be8d871dc7b59316e0e62eea | 17 Oct 14:19 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 17 | 0xf33d8e3975921907e285e8b9ad38099265b949e5 | 17 Oct 13:59 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 16 | 0x91c0c5ec99d46110cb98feaac835be5a6c3902cf | 17 Oct 13:37 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 15 | 0x0107bbdfe38f03f8f32f6159b430b2173c0382f4 | 17 Oct 13:24 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 14 | 0x5c9b809dd5ae7fb1c0b14b838e0f43de5194644e | 17 Oct 13:22 | $10 | trail | 2.15x (+114.7%) +$11.47 |
| 13 | 0x4059923068eafe34882c9c5c90ea5f3e05678e2e | 17 Oct 10:28 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 12 | 0x0e9549e3a25ea7f38c92842fcbc7d84337d26bb5 | 17 Oct 09:21 | $10 | trail | 2.38x (+138.4%) +$13.84 |
| 11 | 0x018c307690412d03d3a5998874ee1ad998d704dd | 17 Oct 07:48 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 10 | 0x5a2666c93b2203807f6874595ff5ee06881c2b94 | 17 Oct 02:35 | $10 | trail | 2.33x (+133.2%) +$13.32 |
| 9 | 0x4c58b397c423ecd4b1670bb6e2176ea976fd905d | 17 Oct 02:27 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 8 | 0x6f059b6c9e0c5e365a76752f1d6f70270dddcc6e | 17 Oct 02:20 | $10 | trail | 6.49x (+549.4%) +$54.94 |
| 7 | 0x76ba92473ecb61258645ee5d337e8b57f96143e1 | 17 Oct 02:18 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 6 | 0xf7514e89f722067dedb81687daecb4335f4de8d2 | 16 Oct 22:16 | $10 | trail | 3.42x (+242.1%) +$24.21 |
| 5 | 0xe1f9ad13b2ed17097396cb09bd73f8a6d6a2b8b7 | 16 Oct 21:49 | $10 | trail | 15.10x (+1410.1%) +$141.01 |
| 4 | 0x6b6597e333f16d904f1259d26d978e283759cb23 | 16 Oct 20:53 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 3 | 0x4a8d33b219741a756c2ce188bb08f256ea07a0fa | 16 Oct 20:37 | $10 | trail | 3.36x (+236.0%) +$23.60 |
| 2 | 0x2216ce9b7cdfebfe3b4428786d2fe8ec90828724 | 16 Oct 20:34 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 1 | 0x882916ff932b55b16c119d2a828163752bda0957 | 16 Oct 16:52 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
Full Test Manager report
# V3-VEARLY paper test (Test Manager) - 22 Oct 20:23 UTC
Rule (ledger #617, a2-miss-v3-16oct.md idea C): v3 pools, first swap cap >= $10k at age <= 300 s, entry cap < $30k, pool ETH >= 1; buy 15 s later; exit 0.6x stop | trail (A 50% / B 65% below peak) | 6 h; pull = 0; 1% fee + 2% impact each side. Hunt: enter 10-30k in the first 5 min, ride to 1M+. Kill: fwd arm A mean < 1.05 at n20; decide by 20 Oct.
- Skipped {'pool ETH<1': 1880, 'entry cap>=30k': 285, 'trigger cap>=30k': 250, 'age>300s': 105}; waiting 15; open legs 0
- Arm A forward: n 95, mean 1.77x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 31, trail 36, stop 2, pull 57, time 0
- Arm B forward: n 95, mean 2.00x, median 0.78x, win(>1x) 40, trail 54, stop 0, pull 41, time 0
- Arm A replay (6 Oct-FWD, analyst2 got 2.29x with cost 7%): n 168, mean 2.05x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 49, trail 57, stop 3, pull 107, time 1
- Arm B replay: n 168, mean 1.81x, median 0.00x, win(>1x) 63, trail 77, stop 0, pull 91, time 0
- Not tested: outside-wallet sell depth at 10-30k cap (tiny pools); touch of 1M not tracked here.