A1-V4NAT-3X v4 native chaser
Analyst 1 · v4 native nohook cls A1, 3x + 5 senders + 3 buys in 600s · paper, $10 a trade, since 13 Oct · idea #2245 · updated 16 Oct 23:01 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: Forward n40 B 1.044x (lo80 0.87, ex-top2 0.997). Not verified; retire 17 Oct unless mean>=1.1 at n50.
Still open:
- Fwd B n40 1.044x lo80 0.87, ex-top2 0.997x, sellsim 21/21; NOT VERIFIED, retire 17 Oct unless n50 mean>=1.1
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: n>=20 fwd mean<1.0 (arm B); decide-by 17 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$16.67
Trades done
51
29 up, 22 down
Best trade
1.9x
Exit rule shown
B
LP pull = 0 (main)
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 174 trades, mean 1.23x, +$398.09 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule B, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A pull sold at last price | 51 | 1.39x | 0 | 0 | 13 | +$198.32 |
| B LP pull = 0 (main) | 51 | 1.03x | 0 | 0 | 22 | +$16.67 |
Every trade (exit rule B)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0x5c1342b9499a221e2bc157a209aacea7249744cf07d64c8d62e0178cf545145c | 16 Oct 22:44 | $10 | tp | 1.86x (+86.2%) +$8.62 |
| 50 | 0x48c730bb5772cf7dc347e55607375f007eb3c5b620302f57dd19708132c008a0 | 16 Oct 21:42 | $10 | quiet | 1.01x (+0.6%) +$0.06 |
| 49 | 0xf60c18d243aab671c0864555848ae5fe90ac15f8d3334a9ad50457c483e863bc | 16 Oct 11:03 | $10 | tp | 1.86x (+86.2%) +$8.62 |
| 48 | 0x3bd5be3ef1b1b4df484a6eb0ea9119a7f3fbad5b9eba7c5b4d3cccb53ce84cbb | 16 Oct 10:47 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 47 | 0xf4b47226457a30e39bbcff0ca666fde77c339b5e7aec67f09124402b174b7414 | 16 Oct 07:47 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 46 | 0x424495f32cd1d293c9f595ed4c63e99b3caf37f8c784c59a831e8168a8fa56c3 | 16 Oct 07:12 | $10 | stop | 0.54x (-46.3%) -$4.63 |
| 45 | 0x17716ffb8534562c49ebe40e4c3893ff063dc544aab63890e8faa28bfde8ba3d | 16 Oct 04:42 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 44 | 0x64181b08635893f2ada12c93961372c9bebe625a0e3fdd563816e01819018564 | 16 Oct 03:04 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 43 | 0xed543853c2c0ea903b71dfc226e3bad9051adaf27967b7fcf69882c2a1b4b517 | 16 Oct 02:48 | $10 | tp | 1.88x (+87.8%) +$8.78 |
| 42 | 0xc2bd95733d8aecc5e6219d42fa7734d34db87d97332502464314f7dab68f4988 | 16 Oct 02:00 | $10 | tp | 1.89x (+89.2%) +$8.92 |
| 41 | 0x04a9c2529ab7db3a65f27e8851ca6e196dd9e30142192d233743fb27f07b1bf9 | 16 Oct 01:31 | $10 | tp | 1.87x (+86.9%) +$8.69 |
| 40 | 0x559e68cde4948456668f5de859cc72c6410f3ac79786cc4fe6b1983315a06063 | 16 Oct 00:05 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 39 | 0x24b5157a4e0a7dba05748fdfd0519677cf7fca2e5770d4a1c93d87c87a4d1b57 | 15 Oct 22:48 | $10 | tp | 1.91x (+91.4%) +$9.14 |
| 38 | 0x139dbec3a8c3f832b8e0680408e3edc74cddd2da9afd96bed964cef42ef3dc49 | 15 Oct 18:00 | $10 | stop | 0.40x (-60.3%) -$6.03 |
| 37 | 0xedac0c1426664c6eac3572606a968144853a1e9330736911d81210152553c9af | 15 Oct 11:35 | $10 | tp | 1.86x (+86.2%) +$8.62 |
| 36 | 0x81cfec237c216048a1dccd5eb030ffdd3cd260aa7a8612573252f8f9bd6f8c8f | 15 Oct 08:49 | $10 | tp | 1.91x (+90.7%) +$9.07 |
| 35 | 0xe2a825278d3edfb13cb0f91ea51c8675a5f0d1100013cc759efc50b8e56fcb13 | 15 Oct 06:32 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 34 | 0x6f1cbe9d8d98e0b0c2062f25c4de3514febdf77055dabe47d8bedad601935890 | 15 Oct 03:12 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 33 | 0xfe93e3836c0040c3dc40350f997df330323b7ab6f04bf7be7007dd6b5745220b | 15 Oct 03:03 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 32 | 0x0a861797c6626ccef36947c766ce848d2a7782b8bd1c2ed2fdaa64ea6347655d | 14 Oct 21:44 | $10 | tp | 1.89x (+89.2%) +$8.92 |
| 31 | 0x2be88755ca152575614e291c49f1ff0d265deedf782df42132a9b5e23fc80ff2 | 14 Oct 20:59 | $10 | quiet | 1.27x (+27.3%) +$2.73 |
| 30 | 0x2da88fa3b25bb6ec0a7ae5a3ea7411994b87c4aadad01f871c3380051b4cd58b | 14 Oct 15:42 | $10 | tp | 1.91x (+90.8%) +$9.08 |
| 29 | 0xeea9f68430e68c47bce9ad870280fc8c4e2d7b0f6dc95af8068545058b041095 | 14 Oct 13:41 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 28 | 0xc800902b9eb5a352bcb089067ba9ff51e80f64dfe003a6e4528693a921340b50 | 14 Oct 10:42 | $10 | tp | 1.94x (+93.6%) +$9.36 |
| 27 | 0x2ef0b6fc8af7761d2f9b68b0c3d78bb4cb4e12bf43a15b68e4b2f905754dd18b | 14 Oct 10:18 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 26 | 0xbc5cdd07c25806111a52620db81dff571efda5bacd2c03d7c88cb4088045f59c | 14 Oct 10:16 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 25 | 0x4bd07ecdc7dd5d844d96a4d5ef355aa07198ec4be7984236b71b1dbe6cb83298 | 14 Oct 10:06 | $10 | tp | 1.87x (+87.4%) +$8.74 |
| 24 | 0xe0856732e41e1903912e210271c410cb9c2490d917016ce3a81b7e3422054d88 | 14 Oct 07:54 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 23 | 0xee2de5010d98f3865cc0c6e4fc6927b86980aad70a9b1d93e1d0efa334caf0d7 | 14 Oct 04:40 | $10 | quiet | 1.32x (+32.5%) +$3.25 |
| 22 | 0x799b878a4a171bd96684a78143ede152818a8632561b0cd3c2343c0e554424eb | 14 Oct 04:31 | $10 | tp | 1.88x (+88.1%) +$8.81 |
| 21 | 0x7866bcdb087a9c7f6f5437fe8c10cb9f9c2f1e896dcee78e58f59d5e61b144ec | 14 Oct 03:53 | $10 | tp | 1.90x (+89.6%) +$8.96 |
| 20 | 0x6554a6d1a49a6a52a46fedf6e7a64404ebc1f115bf9fd8f35bf2a32d4d59c45e | 14 Oct 03:22 | $10 | tp | 1.89x (+89.2%) +$8.92 |
| 19 | 0xafb277da3cc403410a9a33e286ca595b0c454642a1790212c37bd7df76fbbaa5 | 14 Oct 01:46 | $10 | stop | 0.43x (-57.4%) -$5.74 |
| 18 | 0xa9720af9cf102e1201037e816637e69ae7377a7b71c77461594a8c1abc0ae2d8 | 14 Oct 01:42 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 17 | 0xdb9ad73c514fd7a9e53ba1c48df6f0b91cb6ea9fe56dd7dca31571ea1faa5d64 | 14 Oct 01:31 | $10 | tp | 1.86x (+86.3%) +$8.63 |
| 16 | 0x717759605266e37c3e51b889997b5db7e264000a5782b3cd69a146f02316bb46 | 14 Oct 00:28 | $10 | tp | 1.89x (+88.9%) +$8.89 |
| 15 | 0x48435148bf729b4d8c97062c83978304069c56f4fd7f0a7e582dfddae6356b54 | 14 Oct 00:14 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 14 | 0xfc8ef45b8d58234a97f1515930a5f7fae344b6567c1bbe7926cce33aef33bf00 | 14 Oct 00:03 | $10 | quiet | 1.06x (+5.7%) +$0.57 |
| 13 | 0x9e4fa4e15a094754ab46605afec60e0a7783648d225a9f71fdd0838f7b63d712 | 13 Oct 22:10 | $10 | tp | 1.86x (+86.3%) +$8.63 |
| 12 | 0x0532aa3ebb34596567a50d83755614ca06e8e6c0bfd33375ed92df8d9056c399 | 13 Oct 21:59 | $10 | tp | 1.88x (+88.3%) +$8.83 |
| 11 | 0x2ab92f58528abdbb138088cff886ced87c451af4226627aeccb8287614f4b5d9 | 13 Oct 21:09 | $10 | quiet | 1.24x (+23.9%) +$2.39 |
| 10 | 0xf0e9362058350baff3696a4394697c80aceae246e106837d3e690f478d7b7eb6 | 13 Oct 21:01 | $10 | tp | 1.86x (+86.2%) +$8.62 |
| 9 | 0x3aaf870823e1df06b0fa321fedf00a5c010044fc7d618b9f4bb0d25d8ae2e9e4 | 13 Oct 19:25 | $10 | quiet | 1.35x (+34.7%) +$3.47 |
| 8 | 0x598db42715a39c95f10469574115c420de5ec56704b51da854ba0acc3ab53f15 | 13 Oct 18:07 | $10 | tp | 1.95x (+94.9%) +$9.49 |
| 7 | 0xe717736126ece683848999db917cae1fd031cf042e1a85f89574dd3b1c47de78 | 13 Oct 17:47 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 6 | 0xf184854fcbe871cde005bf580e5bfbaf47260db40d3d3c039de6bb354a6f6923 | 13 Oct 16:55 | $10 | stop | 0.55x (-44.9%) -$4.49 |
| 5 | 0x9d6a92407256d84a77d2c07c40d8f7d41a119ea86f4532077e376ca0adab16fe | 13 Oct 15:42 | $10 | quiet | 1.03x (+2.7%) +$0.27 |
| 4 | 0x0e4d58f2f500637204082abb99096b6ede101caa2f8a63c60a57c11366de934b | 13 Oct 08:08 | $10 | tp | 1.91x (+91.1%) +$9.11 |
| 3 | 0x554b58242d7e55d9bdd7d53bc17cf69c3cbeb626258c0699ec9bf3a2865ecf48 | 13 Oct 08:02 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 2 | 0x8d950181b630ad7ad6e4544058f2919caebd789410579b644eb1113478c8428d | 13 Oct 07:48 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 1 | 0xbc448ad88e28ffc9644e072785c635877dbcadcb5ad68963670d46fae835b976 | 13 Oct 05:46 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-6.3%) -$0.63 |
Full Test Manager report
# V4CHASE (A1-V4NAT-3X, #2245) paper test - 16 Oct 16:01 UTC
Spec: analyst1/a1-v4native-chaser.md. Replay n65 mean 1.49. Rows include history in the tape (src col via addsrc). Waiting 154, open 0, skipped {'no trigger in 600s': 832}.
- arm A (pull sold at last price): n 138, mean 1.40x, <1x 36, zeros 0
- arm B (pull = 0, main): n 138, mean 1.05x, <1x 60, zeros 44
Kill: n>=20 mean<1.0 (arm B). Open: outside-wallet sell sim; decide-by 17 Oct.