V4NH-CHEAP v4 no-hook cap<250k
Analyst 1 · entry +306 s · arm A last-price on quiet, B quiet=0 (floor) · paper, $10 a trade, since 10 Oct · idea #373 · updated 10 Oct 15:40 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
The Test Manager has not yet confirmed:
- All 84 exits are quiet (no stop/pull/time): arm A books last swap price, arm B = 0; pulls invisible (ModifyLiquidity)
- Sellability/tx.from untested; need $5 probe
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean < 1.0x after 60 trades or zeros > 10%. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$147.02
Trades done
42
30 up, 12 down
Best trade
3.4x
Exit rule shown
A
stop 0.5x, liq drop sells at pull price, quiet pool sold at last price
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A stop 0.5x, liq drop sells at pull price, quiet pool sold at last price | 42 | 1.35x | 5 | 0 | 12 | +$147.02 |
| B pull and quiet = 0 (floor; every closed pool went quiet so B is 0 so far) | 42 | 0.00x | 0 | 0 | 42 | -$420.00 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0x28fe572c16a748a10744c742cdc0b350fe17428d919e174b3b0eb3fa19d9c9c8 | 10 Oct 11:28 | $10 | quiet | 1.28x (+28.1%) +$2.81 |
| 41 | 0xe26f30bfe64e8982c339fc96173528fd4fa6eb2b26865007c04d9290cfe86fc1 | 10 Oct 10:52 | $10 | quiet | 1.07x (+7.4%) +$0.74 |
| 40 | 0xba91a0ff848cec125386258efccb0839bd1ac4645161cc39e6ce6f00e680b14c | 10 Oct 10:40 | $10 | quiet | 1.79x (+78.7%) +$7.87 |
| 39 | 0x14c41350f2d5386998ee87da4e2df94c660cb905ef4d799fc8dc2874d90b30f2 | 10 Oct 10:26 | $10 | quiet | 1.10x (+10.3%) +$1.03 |
| 38 | 0xf761f6a1feac8168e15efee61e008d08e502f21d5489390d0730e46264778063 | 10 Oct 08:30 | $10 | quiet | 1.26x (+26.3%) +$2.63 |
| 37 | 0x212f4a88add05266a45fa83caa6a7d67eba6a746c215e2a0e31e0c78caee483c | 10 Oct 07:21 | $10 | quiet | 1.41x (+41.2%) +$4.12 |
| 36 | 0xb0c62f949721c63f632cb5191415a675b9c75ce019a2f19debb50710b78d89f6 | 10 Oct 07:19 | $10 | quiet | 0.68x (-32.1%) -$3.21 |
| 35 | 0x685f6c6adcc901d4100e534afb9e34d50089ac752568628a8c6f5b647da89ba6 | 10 Oct 06:54 | $10 | quiet | 1.31x (+30.8%) +$3.08 |
| 34 | 0x5752b6113c2476db16f49e921f60fd73134a2ecb18c07959d9f5a9b822f9c80a | 10 Oct 06:37 | $10 | quiet | 1.19x (+19.4%) +$1.94 |
| 33 | 0xd3ed8e61f1300b25858b887c53b4281812d3407ff15b4f80e9a8fda9fc7266fe | 10 Oct 05:50 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
| 32 | 0x1880b338756905e02805949d83b94495346eeb2b3b9972e5ca81ad42920ed464 | 10 Oct 05:42 | $10 | quiet | 1.00x (+0.2%) +$0.02 |
| 31 | 0x83b2a7409f8e05cbd2aa7514d9eb898e373e7350dd62a4c9c9d8dbf0aa603c17 | 10 Oct 05:29 | $10 | quiet | 0.95x (-5.4%) -$0.54 |
| 30 | 0x601e782c70c4e5fb8178d5db97e37be309773e7d0f0a0d8f11e2cf1c066e21f1 | 10 Oct 03:19 | $10 | quiet | 2.16x (+116.4%) +$11.64 |
| 29 | 0x296763e2e9cad21c075c72cc29719a29440108b47fafb640468cd42849fb85cf | 10 Oct 02:53 | $10 | quiet | 1.29x (+29.1%) +$2.91 |
| 28 | 0x7da0f53a44e3d5e0f0e37d3d5bf1a03ef52f32644ff7e8e8f227102304543d0c | 10 Oct 01:48 | $10 | quiet | 1.65x (+65.3%) +$6.53 |
| 27 | 0xd1f15f6e886fd06f0edf55ae44da3c83eca781183970b98045605d447cbf2e0b | 10 Oct 01:32 | $10 | quiet | 1.36x (+36.2%) +$3.62 |
| 26 | 0xd98a2abca354ead56b4c1182df41f99a0b119778a85b1f7d5e7a0a3b30924081 | 10 Oct 01:25 | $10 | quiet | 3.42x (+242.3%) +$24.23 |
| 25 | 0xc367b94cdb1ba026c6db4bf39474e53275df88272290b61883efd5b8c231b82e | 10 Oct 01:14 | $10 | quiet | 1.56x (+55.9%) +$5.59 |
| 24 | 0xfa6f20488e32274de654699182385ce9ceb6855b38667cc0865388b0a63a392d | 10 Oct 01:00 | $10 | quiet | 1.44x (+44.2%) +$4.42 |
| 23 | 0xa1c3ce35ff6268faeace84f38377af81d7e6e998badb3d0b7752a6d39fbae857 | 10 Oct 00:52 | $10 | quiet | 2.15x (+115.3%) +$11.53 |
| 22 | 0xe92bb9325f95c8a1c63c265dfde2df313d60d3979fc2549d712863bbac6a4eb0 | 10 Oct 00:51 | $10 | quiet | 2.53x (+153.3%) +$15.33 |
| 21 | 0x1e9219df6ce4523dc6be2c41ae4c92d05d17e6c6b5f348dc8f97d39372cc94d9 | 10 Oct 00:44 | $10 | quiet | 1.00x (+0.5%) +$0.05 |
| 20 | 0x88b8a71eb5e4b8459404b97ee722f7537a819fa6df5c51ce7c8d54cbfb49b990 | 10 Oct 00:36 | $10 | quiet | 0.91x (-9.0%) -$0.90 |
| 19 | 0x94499e8776473e17f39968a1dacfea77e1e6fb0f1ef558012cb63dc5ee95c2ab | 10 Oct 00:23 | $10 | quiet | 0.96x (-3.7%) -$0.37 |
| 18 | 0x1353d3c288a8d0c7f33ea08c7096d7875ce20b649593a212a1fd3e30658736d0 | 10 Oct 00:06 | $10 | quiet | 0.97x (-2.7%) -$0.27 |
| 17 | 0x99bd068de9f4ba6f5c7c8324e15b7b2dc3fd714bd9c05a1b0e2a0f0c3a07fb1d | 10 Oct 00:03 | $10 | quiet | 0.86x (-14.1%) -$1.41 |
| 16 | 0xd58a6770c8a1a785eff3d1a3c04fd524a3e107158f0a4fc5ba6a8fadcaaab1d2 | 09 Oct 23:50 | $10 | quiet | 0.92x (-8.0%) -$0.80 |
| 15 | 0x3a5574b5c30a8a8b178c81ae385e2e0920c5d2f8b718bbf9daa93ff25caaceeb | 09 Oct 23:35 | $10 | quiet | 1.40x (+39.7%) +$3.97 |
| 14 | 0x8689a78fa0d97bf9b4eb007ac170b800adf49c7e082177b58ffe63faa6d68842 | 09 Oct 23:24 | $10 | quiet | 0.92x (-7.7%) -$0.77 |
| 13 | 0x2d7344aab9f507f334b350b5b56e8f223e9b5bf7974f79eb8c0944867526f59a | 09 Oct 23:11 | $10 | quiet | 1.04x (+3.6%) +$0.36 |
| 12 | 0x47e7786c418906ef1ebf6be8dedf3e299156bff586737698ee03d80e37ff5738 | 09 Oct 23:04 | $10 | quiet | 1.15x (+15.1%) +$1.51 |
| 11 | 0x468273262c1273758448f8dfad4f90b79eb5710248e9d2b0733b5251080b6dcd | 09 Oct 23:01 | $10 | quiet | 1.10x (+10.0%) +$1.00 |
| 10 | 0x080d5e7c660645345e245b8c688dbf992c06dca0ed7d77c0b5af0c056dd31135 | 09 Oct 22:42 | $10 | quiet | 2.85x (+185.3%) +$18.53 |
| 9 | 0xac14f1488b7ab88ce11ddaa20665f5886f4c5f5638a156a5ad6295ffbbd35c5d | 09 Oct 22:28 | $10 | quiet | 1.10x (+10.3%) +$1.03 |
| 8 | 0xc87adc654da35a025e2d90fe8a544cf5c3421349149cef7ce95633d06ae61c03 | 09 Oct 20:06 | $10 | quiet | 0.90x (-10.2%) -$1.02 |
| 7 | 0x0b140d20e1eb13eb480bc817dc298716062015dc4fc29b3388c179efc8280b67 | 09 Oct 18:51 | $10 | quiet | 1.30x (+29.9%) +$2.99 |
| 6 | 0xb8cabf6d7bbb8341f7a17d76172544e55485896349f1e2b99a091f5989bf908c | 09 Oct 17:41 | $10 | quiet | 0.90x (-10.2%) -$1.02 |
| 5 | 0x095eb58c63aba34004380072e5f47ab26efd43e02d1517179c9424d42e10bdf4 | 09 Oct 17:25 | $10 | quiet | 1.70x (+69.5%) +$6.95 |
| 4 | 0xc06eef8d6dc3bbe4e911ea03739f4c0f20f8392b6caf00332f0b61e968f72c3c | 09 Oct 17:14 | $10 | quiet | 0.97x (-2.6%) -$0.26 |
| 3 | 0x92f79e84a994eb741988834f9bcd4d76cbacbcc7babfc54d4ac4d8f3d8f55364 | 09 Oct 16:38 | $10 | quiet | 1.58x (+58.4%) +$5.84 |
| 2 | 0x271b9e111964f358bd9c03d08cd940b1fc5cf25f9f7d7a7eacb2bc793e04e02f | 09 Oct 16:17 | $10 | quiet | 1.18x (+17.5%) +$1.75 |
| 1 | 0x4ed6d2ca8ce015acb46842643281e8b4ed3a2298aad453bcbb51a336ebe62fb0 | 09 Oct 15:39 | $10 | quiet | 1.42x (+41.6%) +$4.16 |
Full Test Manager report
# V4NH-CHEAP: v4 no-hook, cap<250k at +300 s, buy +306 s (A1 #373) forward paper test (Test Manager) - 10 Oct 08:40 UTC
Spec: fw/a1-v4nh-cheap-spec.md. Feed v4tape forward only. Hunt: entry +306 s, cap <250k, target 1M-3M. Stop 0.5x, liq drop >=50% sells, 4 h time stop, fee + 3% slippage per side. Arm A sells at the pull swap price and a pool that went quiet before 4 h is sold at its last price; arm B pull and quiet = 0 (conservative). Judge by B.
- No-hook pools seen: 206; waiting 1; open 16; skipped {'no swap after 300s': 133, 'pulled before entry': 1, 'cap>=250k': 3, 'no swap after 306s': 1}; sign check 0/38257
- arm A: all n 42, mean 1.35x, <1x 12, zeros 0 | cap<50k n 7, mean 1.24x, <1x 4, zeros 0 | cap 50-250k n 35, mean 1.37x, <1x 8, zeros 0 | late (excluded) n 17, mean 1.36x, <1x 4, zeros 0
- arm B: all n 42, mean 0.00x, <1x 42, zeros 42 | cap<50k n 7, mean 0.00x, <1x 7, zeros 7 | cap 50-250k n 35, mean 0.00x, <1x 35, zeros 35 | late (excluded) n 17, mean 0.03x, <1x 17, zeros 16
- Kill (A1): mean < 1.0 after 60 trades or zeros > 10%. Sim: mean 1.70x, <50k 2.15. Open: outside-money and sellability unproven (one router recipient everywhere): needs Ben's $5 buy+sell probe on ~10 coins or tx.from check. Paper only.