Wide exits on mc5 band
Analyst 3 · v3 band 200k-1.5M, tp10/tp20 sl.3 vs tp5 · paper, $10 a trade, since 10 Oct · idea #177 · updated 12 Oct 09:10 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: Auditor3 FIX: B vs C looks real but 8 wins in 12 pools; split fwd-only, need fwd 30 + sell proof at 20x. Owner testmgr3.
Still open:
- need fwd split + 20x sell proof
- 11 Oct FIX: fwd-only B n13 1.30 (CI 0.04-2.56); 7 trades>=10x carry replay mean; 10x/20x depth unproven; fw/audit-wide-a1mc-11oct.md
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: A mean <1.0x after 30 closed forward. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$104.41
Trades done
26
1 up, 25 down
Best trade
9.3x
Exit rule shown
A
tp10 sl.3
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 168 trades, mean 1.50x, +$839.14 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B tp20 sl.3 | 26 | 0.74x | 1 | 1 | 25 | -$66.21 |
| A tp10 sl.3 | 26 | 0.60x | 1 | 0 | 25 | -$104.41 |
| C tp5 sl.5 baseline | 26 | 0.55x | 1 | 0 | 25 | -$117.62 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0xafdcfbaee898665914814d63f2719fef908356cb | 12 Oct 08:32 | $10 | stop | 0.25x (-74.8%) -$7.48 |
| 25 | 0x2912e6522efa87605aa38c2985a7a62cfd422929 | 12 Oct 08:17 | $10 | stop | 0.15x (-84.7%) -$8.47 |
| 24 | 0xbfa59d4e591d9ae6196a77db28f2f70e85b0df1a | 12 Oct 04:59 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-73.7%) -$7.37 |
| 23 | 0xa20e64ecf8b0e7581e526e023e61d8bc889d4229 | 12 Oct 03:44 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.7%) -$7.27 |
| 22 | 0xa84da3db805362edfb3f6154097b3af92984a772 | 12 Oct 03:40 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.1%) -$7.21 |
| 21 | 0xae0e93c0d2c43886b4f840a0675b845c675a88fc | 12 Oct 03:13 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.1%) -$7.21 |
| 20 | 0x0359b9be1a868c39657ed799e83d98f128c3dcbe | 12 Oct 00:41 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.1%) -$7.21 |
| 19 | 0xf0d59bfd4d70de10758bf6cec91605c1b0bf337f | 12 Oct 00:19 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 18 | 0xbc9f431132ab8a40d64a704c84d6d1d203e1a5bf | 12 Oct 00:17 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.6%) -$7.26 |
| 17 | 0x1996432a9c09f66f471219def85858b2df60d404 | 12 Oct 00:11 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 16 | 0x6f4e2d27a01d4a4c21c65d04361d675cd9b3a9ec | 12 Oct 00:08 | $10 | stop | 0.15x (-84.6%) -$8.46 |
| 15 | 0x0f592dcbea19382b3cbbbe0810786fd94b126829 | 12 Oct 00:01 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 14 | 0x973ac818af14aad900bd4d7b70bb46d306b131e3 | 11 Oct 21:09 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.1%) -$7.21 |
| 13 | 0x2c254c0c7777130f951583a1650d1bc1b93fd5f4 | 11 Oct 09:51 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.5%) -$7.25 |
| 12 | 0x06211e22935039e35b52bff05b9da281efa0bcf7 | 11 Oct 09:22 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-73.0%) -$7.30 |
| 11 | 0x4ad68babd3a973c00329b690d7678a6c71289703 | 11 Oct 00:04 | $10 | time | 0.85x (-14.8%) -$1.48 |
| 10 | 0x967d9148c71fcf6aebaf2c4c79d8dde33e4a5e9d | 10 Oct 19:24 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-73.8%) -$7.38 |
| 9 | 0x555796ee4c2b89557f49e4208402161c68a30c2f | 10 Oct 13:58 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.6%) -$7.26 |
| 8 | 0x36dd4552b6dce71eb775e2c8024e791581d47cad | 10 Oct 12:20 | $10 | tp | 9.30x (+830.0%) +$83.00 |
| 7 | 0xb8a3bc9d428e82096e672079900dcbda0f3e3b21 | 10 Oct 11:48 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.1%) -$7.21 |
| 6 | 0xaf05af5d631f7bc81aeb972cd6504a17eec49ac6 | 10 Oct 11:45 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-73.5%) -$7.35 |
| 5 | 0x774859255a2ae34806e2cb3cb10a7d2dd082231a | 10 Oct 10:34 | $10 | stop | 0.28x (-72.3%) -$7.23 |
| 4 | 0xcad356f8f0239c8280a6b06529f33543ec934270 | 10 Oct 09:12 | $10 | stop | 0.25x (-74.6%) -$7.46 |
| 3 | 0xd92366a96c47803accbb45017523c3bc1fbf8918 | 10 Oct 08:55 | $10 | stop | 0.23x (-77.5%) -$7.75 |
| 2 | 0x66abb51da419bd1e7169adcf904f3a3bd5939733 | 10 Oct 08:29 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-73.1%) -$7.31 |
| 1 | 0xcf2c8713144d9b640cbe589e1ae3ced297413554 | 10 Oct 07:42 | $10 | stop | 0.27x (-72.8%) -$7.28 |
Full Test Manager report
# A3-WIDE forward paper test (Test Manager) - 12 Oct 02:10 UTC
Hunt: mc5-style v3 band entries (cap 200k-1.5M at +300 s, >=20 swaps, buy first swap >= +306 s), target 10x-20x (3M+ tier). Rule from fw/a3-iter-10oct-f.md item 3 (#572). 7% slippage (mult*0.93); pull=0; 4 h.
Arms: A tp10 sl.3 | B tp20 sl.3 | C tp5 sl.5 (baseline).
- Replay since 6 Oct (in-sample): 82 entries
- A: n 82 closed, mean 1.19x, median 0.27x, win 9, tp 8, stop 62, pull 8, time 4
- B: n 82 closed, mean 1.62x, median 0.27x, win 8, tp 3, stop 63, pull 8, time 8
- C: n 82 closed, mean 0.86x, median 0.45x, win 9, tp 9, stop 67, pull 5, time 1
- FORWARD only (pools created from 10 Oct 00:00 UTC): 26 entries
- A: n 26 closed, mean 0.60x, median 0.27x, win 1, tp 1, stop 21, pull 3, time 1
- B: n 26 closed, mean 0.75x, median 0.27x, win 1, tp 0, stop 21, pull 3, time 2
- C: n 26 closed, mean 0.55x, median 0.45x, win 1, tp 1, stop 21, pull 3, time 1
- Replay vs forward, n / mean (80% CI), trades >=10x:
| arm | replay | forward | >=10x replay/fwd |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 82 / 1.19 (0.81-1.58) | 26 / 0.60 (0.15-1.05) | 0/0 |
| B | 82 / 1.62 (0.99-2.24) | 26 / 0.75 (0.11-1.38) | 7/1 |
| C | 82 / 0.86 (0.67-1.05) | 26 / 0.55 (0.33-0.76) | 0/0 |
- Verdict basis is FORWARD only (auditor 11 Oct): replay mean of B rests on a few >=10x fills. Re-audit at forward n>=30 per arm. Depth walk at 10x/20x still open.
- Skipped: {'cap300 outside 200k-1.5M': 798, 'swaps<20 by 300 s': 846, 'no swap after +306 s yet': 1}
- Kill (my rule): after 100 forward closed entries arm A mean < 1.3. A3 sim: A 1.67, B 2.15, C 1.28 (tp hits rare: 16 for tp20).
- Limits: mark-to-print exit, NO real sell quote at 10x (pool depth unproven; A3 asks for it). Fill depth beyond 7% slip not modelled. Only Ben switches live (D-030).