Winner-linked wallet K=1
Analyst 2 · first winner-linked wallet buys <=180 s, tp5 sl.5 · paper, $10 a trade, since 10 Oct · idea #495 · updated 16 Oct 10:01 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Still open:
- 16 Oct sweep DRIFT: fwd last40 wlink 0.92x / wlink1 0.96x (last20 0.75/0.76); whole sample 1.44x/1.12x. fw/audit-sweep-16oct.md. replay A n53 2.05x; fwd A n30 1.68x lo80 1.29; sell sim 30/30; hand rebuild + outside sellers open (check on first live fills)
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean <1.0x after 100 closed or 10 losses in a row. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$369.52
Trades done
53
23 up, 30 down
Best trade
4.6x
Exit rule shown
A
all rows (csv has no arm column)
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 79 trades, mean 1.72x, +$569.57 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A all rows (csv has no arm column) | 53 | 1.70x | 13 | 0 | 30 | +$369.52 |
| B | 60 | 0.60x | 2 | 0 | 57 | -$236.93 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0xd6752db527c882a9cb25ba0a7a002140e535531f | 16 Oct 04:53 | $10 | time | 0.92x (-7.9%) -$0.79 |
| 52 | 0xd4f4a9e7e6e55983f6a0e6f7777f989915783059 | 15 Oct 19:32 | $10 | time | 0.92x (-7.9%) -$0.79 |
| 51 | 0xf4bfa4e152d6a255909c0d14af4cceed64304a16 | 15 Oct 18:54 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.4%) -$5.44 |
| 50 | 0x5fe87b6a8c2ee523fba1dd9baf259a1ba3beae30 | 15 Oct 08:30 | $10 | time | 0.92x (-7.9%) -$0.79 |
| 49 | 0xb31367d93cd715a40d4e9d64b82fbdd5315adaf9 | 15 Oct 02:02 | $10 | time | 1.34x (+34.5%) +$3.45 |
| 48 | 0xea0d871041ba1155bde8ca8ba489d1e2b361e6b8 | 14 Oct 23:17 | $10 | tp | 4.61x (+360.7%) +$36.07 |
| 47 | 0x6ddfa3307b7757b4461337d62a9a0f3f42887c30 | 14 Oct 23:13 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.0%) -$5.40 |
| 46 | 0x9dc75b5ef63e6096c6d3086dee240e0f2b7e3934 | 14 Oct 23:02 | $10 | stop | 0.43x (-56.5%) -$5.65 |
| 45 | 0x89e0770b01d67924c0b158264913647d4ae36212 | 14 Oct 23:01 | $10 | time | 1.20x (+20.4%) +$2.04 |
| 44 | 0xea348f823e73adfe3ef418c41103c911051b2c70 | 14 Oct 22:59 | $10 | time | 0.85x (-15.3%) -$1.53 |
| 43 | 0x8b8d44a65ce53227c0f10241044d50774a78de3c | 14 Oct 17:27 | $10 | time | 1.34x (+33.6%) +$3.36 |
| 42 | 0x880cc22678c825f47001e862553dc182880f3982 | 14 Oct 14:43 | $10 | tp | 4.61x (+360.7%) +$36.07 |
| 41 | 0x2efc07cc142dc18f353acfc5e4bc44f36d0873d6 | 14 Oct 14:39 | $10 | time | 1.09x (+9.0%) +$0.90 |
| 40 | 0x9faa901acf2372d08f411eaa18fb2ac9ac8902ea | 14 Oct 14:35 | $10 | time | 2.79x (+179.5%) +$17.95 |
| 39 | 0x393dcd99fc5304d6178296be1e1eac71708c09ae | 14 Oct 10:55 | $10 | tp | 4.61x (+360.7%) +$36.07 |
| 38 | 0x1b1f93f3c956e0e355579d3340ced4e8f1492ae3 | 14 Oct 07:18 | $10 | time | 1.02x (+1.8%) +$0.18 |
| 37 | 0xd1122ffa6beb1ac7e45186983de98cc3eaece530 | 14 Oct 07:13 | $10 | tp | 4.61x (+360.7%) +$36.07 |
| 36 | 0x4334226b8dc9e3f3a232e7e81f144e0d98a0cb4f | 14 Oct 04:28 | $10 | time | 1.32x (+32.5%) +$3.25 |
| 35 | 0xfe8ef6a9d0362a27015f344e0e6d251af0ff8169 | 14 Oct 01:36 | $10 | time | 0.99x (-1.0%) -$0.10 |
| 34 | 0xa87bd1e3c11db57b3dbfb89038006d6f82a7ced5 | 13 Oct 20:43 | $10 | time | 0.94x (-5.7%) -$0.57 |
| 33 | 0xeeb59688ba110f63c59b01df222763a033730ceb | 13 Oct 20:41 | $10 | stop | 0.40x (-60.4%) -$6.04 |
| 32 | 0xc375fd076ba87dea254134c69c7fb42f072aa531 | 13 Oct 07:28 | $10 | tp | 4.61x (+360.7%) +$36.07 |
| 31 | 0xdcda4241affb2fd0f2ec43cb566967aac79a585f | 13 Oct 06:35 | $10 | tp | 4.61x (+360.7%) +$36.07 |
| 30 | 0x8544d5cbc7007ab0753ee661d8ebdc37d97419c0 | 13 Oct 06:18 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.9%) -$5.39 |
| 29 | 0x62892af7b92b2d2680244ce505c58e6bfa1fcbce | 13 Oct 04:21 | $10 | time | 0.71x (-28.8%) -$2.88 |
| 28 | 0x4cf25a1e92841a9cdcb36c4f6c5632ae613c5434 | 12 Oct 20:47 | $10 | tp | 4.61x (+360.7%) +$36.07 |
| 27 | 0xde9853ccd39c86904839af26bd681b76ccae89c6 | 12 Oct 20:00 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.0%) -$5.40 |
| 26 | 0x9784c7debfc0234ec52425e847989888ec5411a5 | 12 Oct 15:39 | $10 | time | 1.25x (+25.1%) +$2.51 |
| 25 | 0x665aada62af691033bf231e532ae760b53fe6181 | 12 Oct 07:48 | $10 | tp | 4.61x (+360.7%) +$36.07 |
| 24 | 0x80989e1b33502cd1713c3a7661c69939c4cdc2a3 | 12 Oct 07:06 | $10 | time | 0.89x (-11.2%) -$1.12 |
| 23 | 0x7cb526e5b07f6008cabf84d4983e697f982e154d | 12 Oct 06:42 | $10 | tp | 4.61x (+360.7%) +$36.07 |
| 22 | 0xd2f9a0e5f95d21002e837d71b6e06c21763c7409 | 12 Oct 06:24 | $10 | time | 1.53x (+53.2%) +$5.32 |
| 21 | 0x8680c47c03b908a64a035766f17e08a89f8b307b | 12 Oct 03:18 | $10 | stop | 0.29x (-70.6%) -$7.06 |
| 20 | 0x6228e2db6d0a6d89ca8152aec03b094b7972bdf0 | 12 Oct 03:01 | $10 | time | 0.92x (-7.9%) -$0.79 |
| 19 | 0x022a1fae7b27a95109f9bc6696d7086f8b783be2 | 12 Oct 02:28 | $10 | stop | 0.40x (-60.3%) -$6.03 |
| 18 | 0xcef191ed5f10f69a9a49acd147bd707a7b2cbc1f | 12 Oct 02:19 | $10 | tp | 4.61x (+360.7%) +$36.07 |
| 17 | 0x9dbad2a3550a9cf4a9d369bc83a4dfb8b9253ca2 | 12 Oct 02:11 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.2%) -$5.42 |
| 16 | 0xa9dfd5410ca3187cae00dbfb8f4db05e296591a3 | 12 Oct 02:08 | $10 | time | 0.83x (-17.2%) -$1.72 |
| 15 | 0xd6233eb08f38cb30c9e44c4bc9bfd67c02bdfa4d | 12 Oct 00:52 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-54.7%) -$5.47 |
| 14 | 0xca507fd5b1ddfdc3a1ddefa6b528f5524ffcf59b | 12 Oct 00:21 | $10 | stop | 0.42x (-58.1%) -$5.81 |
| 13 | 0x2d2afe9505edde484f3989ac5dd028230483eaea | 11 Oct 23:22 | $10 | time | 1.48x (+48.0%) +$4.80 |
| 12 | 0x6de464a8aef68d3cf07af46ac54d6378259684bd | 11 Oct 21:19 | $10 | tp | 4.61x (+360.7%) +$36.07 |
| 11 | 0xaa4d23057ad7e9f07ecee4c31963c1bf6e6416f7 | 11 Oct 13:46 | $10 | stop | 0.42x (-57.7%) -$5.77 |
| 10 | 0x94509f9d58275218b85320bbdb6cdbd696a1da65 | 11 Oct 13:20 | $10 | stop | 0.43x (-56.7%) -$5.67 |
| 9 | 0x4cc1ca1a22ecf6c9dae3980e6390cd13463e1602 | 11 Oct 13:04 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-55.0%) -$5.50 |
| 8 | 0xd43808a73555b9115f461a5e806f2c3815bc585f | 11 Oct 12:58 | $10 | time | 0.56x (-43.9%) -$4.39 |
| 7 | 0xaed33d97f46c4336231638585536094ede791de5 | 11 Oct 12:41 | $10 | time | 0.63x (-37.2%) -$3.72 |
| 6 | 0x59580260410a221a6b1603fd29a761460eff5e84 | 11 Oct 00:24 | $10 | time | 0.89x (-10.8%) -$1.08 |
| 5 | 0x12932497df306b359de1cd053e8a4f8ee069b8b1 | 10 Oct 23:47 | $10 | tp | 4.61x (+360.7%) +$36.07 |
| 4 | 0x8ec919ca2cf60d1aa8845330ffc918f5d0d7bc5e | 10 Oct 22:17 | $10 | time | 0.92x (-7.9%) -$0.79 |
| 3 | 0xd54edaa4a65bb0c1326a9c086da99f30b73e5e8f | 10 Oct 20:22 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.4%) -$5.44 |
| 2 | 0x13dc31935dc61ed51612d13893e9f3deda213778 | 10 Oct 20:20 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.4%) -$5.44 |
| 1 | 0x3bb8a25e1f3725cfb193f55e56227e45416c5e46 | 10 Oct 19:19 | $10 | time | 1.49x (+49.1%) +$4.91 |
Full Test Manager report
# A2-WLINK-K1 paper test (Test Manager, #765) - 16 Oct 03:01 UTC
Rule (fw/a2-wlink-44.md): fee-100 v3 pool; 1st winner-linked wallet (K=1, infra = wallets in >=10 early pools) (early buyer of an earlier runner, 6 h lag, infra excluded) buys within 180 s of pool start; buy first print >=10 s later; tp5 / stop 0.5 / 4 h; 3% fee + 5% slip. Arm A cap<150k (spec), arm B all caps.
- Winner wallets known 13244; infra excluded 1303; pools with early buys 3665; signal pools waiting 0; skipped {'no entry print': 3}
- Arm A (cap<150k): n 100, mean 1.89x, median 0.94x, win 46, tp 28, stop 35, runners 4
- Arm B (all caps): n 192, mean 1.37x, median 0.46x, win 54, tp 35, stop 109, runners 56
- Arm A, entry print >60 s after signal (thin, slow fill): n 3, mean 0.92x, median 0.92x, win 0, tp 0, stop 0, runners 0
- Arm A forward only (since 10 Oct 11:50 UTC): n 53, mean 1.70x, median 0.92x, win 23, tp 12, stop 16, runners 3
- Replay expectation (A2 #748, no haircut): 2.03x at cap<150k, 0.97 at >=150k (haircut ~ -0.15). Kill: arm A mean < 1.0 after n=40 closed trades.
- Caveats: pool pull not modeled (prints only); thin 20-60k pools; winner list from v3tx.db early table (12 Sep-6 Oct) plus v3live signers.