# Runner capture: live mc5 peak vs exit (research #1994, 22 Oct 2026 02:30 UTC)

Source: closed live mc5 trades (fm_mirror) x v3live swap path (24 h after buy). n=101 trades, 38 with true peak >=3x. Exit shown = real live fill; rule columns are swap-level simulation (entry = first swap at buy, fill at the trigger level, no slippage, so stops look ~0.03 better than live).

## Every live trade with peak >= 3x (true peak in 24 h)

| bought (UTC) | token | entry cap | true peak | live exit | peak kept | exit rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 21:33 | 0x9faf478c | $406k | 51.9x | 23.16x | 44% | time_14400s |
| 06 Oct 16:40 | 0x717d3858 | $688k | 38.7x | 29.43x | 76% | time_14400s |
| 09 Oct 06:49 | 0xaa3b129e | $527k | 35.5x | 0.48x | 1% | stop_0.5x |
| 08 Oct 13:03 | 0xb05a24a4 | $784k | 35.1x | 0.44x | 1% | stop_0.5x |
| 12 Oct 10:55 | 0x370dd118 | $815k | 31.1x | 0.47x | 1% | stop_0.5x |
| 12 Oct 02:21 | 0x43fc3c84 | $735k | 28.7x | 0.49x | 1% | stop_0.5x |
| 07 Oct 11:31 | 0xb10e359b | $604k | 28.6x | 19.51x | 68% | time_14400s |
| 09 Oct 11:56 | 0xb862389b | $663k | 27.8x | 12.80x | 46% | time_14400s |
| 08 Oct 14:01 | 0xeb727300 | $971k | 22.1x | 0.39x | 1% | stop_0.5x |
| 10 Oct 05:20 | 0xcb77210e | $978k | 21.6x | 12.97x | 60% | time_14400s |
| 14 Oct 11:40 | 0xa60b9797 | $961k | 20.2x | 0.47x | 2% | stop_0.5x |
| 13 Oct 19:48 | 0x7ee3cdc8 | $355k | 14.6x | 0.48x | 3% | stop_0.5x |
| 14 Oct 04:40 | 0xf7f34c25 | $861k | 13.8x | 11.47x | 83% | time_14400s |
| 15 Oct 23:30 | 0x10e8bb48 | $413k | 12.3x | 0.40x | 3% | stop_0.5x |
| 06 Oct 09:24 | 0xfb4035ac | $469k | 11.8x | 0.52x | 4% | stop_0.5x |
| 12 Oct 12:10 | 0x68c4b18c | $960k | 10.6x | 1.48x | 13% | time_14400s |
| 13 Oct 21:47 | 0x0cdd8573 | $314k | 9.0x | 4.84x | 53% | time_14400s |
| 07 Oct 14:17 | 0x4edb7e29 | $402k | 8.9x | 0.50x | 5% | stop_0.5x |
| 09 Oct 20:00 | 0x5765b40b | $936k | 8.2x | 0.50x | 6% | stop_0.5x |
| 15 Oct 23:29 | 0x8953e3d1 | $756k | 7.0x | 0.50x | 7% | stop_0.5x |
| 13 Oct 19:16 | 0x61dfb1e2 | $260k | 6.6x | 0.00x | 0% | stop_0.5x |
| 14 Oct 04:21 | 0xd67b0c99 | $469k | 5.5x | 0.02x | 0% | stop_0.5x |
| 08 Oct 16:04 | 0x9ae8d29c | $388k | 5.4x | 0.48x | 8% | stop_0.5x |
| 11 Oct 14:09 | 0x710eb0a2 | $316k | 5.4x | 0.53x | 9% | stop_0.5x |
| 11 Oct 20:40 | 0x8e67b7cd | $831k | 5.2x | 0.48x | 9% | stop_0.5x |
| 09 Oct 17:36 | 0x1fac75d4 | $639k | 4.9x | 0.46x | 9% | stop_0.5x |
| 09 Oct 20:00 | 0xa2496e92 | $392k | 4.8x | 0.46x | 9% | stop_0.5x |
| 14 Oct 19:51 | 0x351f6592 | $572k | 4.8x | 1.95x | 40% | time_14400s |
| 15 Oct 18:18 | 0xb1ff6a6b | $872k | 4.7x | 0.49x | 10% | stop_0.5x |
| 07 Oct 08:16 | 0x3796191a | $702k | 4.4x | 0.43x | 9% | stop_0.5x |
| 11 Oct 20:13 | 0x5d38b6d1 | $684k | 4.3x | 0.00x | 0% | stop_0.5x |
| 12 Oct 08:52 | 0x53f99e84 | $964k | 4.3x | 0.49x | 11% | stop_0.5x |
| 16 Oct 22:15 | 0x0f7b0346 | $723k | 4.2x | 0.21x | 4% | stop_0.5x |
| 07 Oct 06:25 | 0xc708284d | $470k | 4.2x | 0.33x | 7% | stop_0.5x |
| 09 Oct 16:15 | 0x9fba635c | $262k | 4.1x | 0.01x | 0% | stop_0.5x |
| 07 Oct 18:14 | 0x40a31c23 | $348k | 3.8x | 0.52x | 13% | stop_0.5x |
| 08 Oct 13:21 | 0x7b788a68 | $347k | 3.5x | 0.30x | 8% | stop_0.5x |
| 10 Oct 04:48 | 0x805e121c | $434k | 3.5x | 0.36x | 10% | stop_0.5x |

Peak kept on runners (sum exit / sum peak): **25%** (n=38). Mean live mult all trades: 1.50x.

## Exit rules replayed on the same trades

| rule | mean mult (all) | w/o top 3 | peak kept on runners |
|---|---|---|---|
| no stop, 4h | 2.53x | 1.74x | 47% |
| stop0.2 + 4h | 1.94x | 1.22x | 34% |
| stop0.3 + 4h | 1.86x | 1.14x | 31% |
| stop0.3 + 8h | 1.79x | 1.13x | 30% |
| stop0.5 + 8h | 1.74x | 1.08x | 27% |
| stop0.4 + 4h | 1.73x | 1.01x | 28% |
| base stop0.5 + 4h | 1.71x | 0.98x | 26% |
| trail0.5 from 3x | 1.60x | 1.06x | 24% |
| trail0.5 from 5x, 12h | 1.53x | 1.02x | 23% |
| BE after 2x (stop->0.8) | 1.47x | 0.93x | 21% |
| trail0.6 from 10x, 24h | 1.46x | 0.93x | 21% |
| stop0.5 + 2h | 1.44x | 0.88x | 21% |
| BE after 3x (stop->0.9) | 1.44x | 0.90x | 21% |
| half at 5x, rest base | 1.40x | 0.98x | 20% |
| trail0.6 from 5x | 1.39x | 0.86x | 20% |
| half at 3x, rest base | 1.37x | 0.98x | 20% |
| half at 5x, rest trail0.6/10x 12h | 1.32x | 0.97x | 19% |
| half at 5x + BE after 3x | 1.28x | 0.95x | 18% |
| half at 3x + BE after 2x | 1.27x | 0.97x | 17% |
| trail0.7 from 5x | 1.26x | 0.88x | 18% |

**Best by mean: no stop, 4h (2.53x). Best that does not lower the w/o-top-3 mean >10%: no stop, 4h (2.53x, 47% peak kept).**

Caveat: n=101, few runners; swap-level replay shakes out stops harder than the chain (A1 6 Oct found trails lose; this re-checks on live trades). Treat as a direction, not a verdict. No-stop rows ignore rugs/liquidity pulls where nobody can sell (exit at last swap price), so they are an upper bound; a1 must test with Burn/pull + outside-sell model before any live change.