# Shadow variant grid: live mc5 rule (paper replay, Test Manager)

Made 22 Oct 03:04 Bangkok. Same coins and fill model as the live rule's research (bt.py tick-walk on real pool depth, 1% each way + gas), every night. Paper only; nothing touches a wallet. Only Ben changes the live rules (D-030). Numbers are tickets: +1.0 = one ticket of profit ($50 at $50). 'w/o top 3' removes the 3 best trades. Random = share of random draws from the same pools (same exits) that this rule beats, per period (dumb baseline, D-032). Kill rule: behind the live rule on both all days and the last 7 days in 3 runs in a row = dropped.

| variant | last 7 d: trades, net, w/o top 3 | since 13 Sep: trades, net, w/o top 3, per day | wins | beats random | behind live (runs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stop 0.3x | 39, +1.0, -23.7 | 274, +336.3, +237.1, +11.24 | 21% | 98/85/98 | 0 |
| no stop | 39, +0.2, -24.5 | 274, +345.1, +245.8, +11.54 | 21% | 98/85/98 | 0 |
| 0.3x, 4h, 150k-1M | 44, -0.1, -24.8 | 344, +325.5, +226.3, +10.15 | 18% | 97/79/96 | 0 |
| **LIVE (0.5x, 4h, 250k-1M, 5m)** | 39, -6.6, -26.7 | 274, +293.9, +194.7, +9.82 | 17% | 98/85/97 | - |
| no stop, 4h, 150k-2M | 59, -12.7, -37.4 | 394, +363.6, +264.4, +11.34 | 19% | 96/77/96 | 0 |
| band 250k-2M | 54, -15.0, -35.2 | 324, +310.7, +211.5, +10.39 | 16% | 97/85/94 | 0 |
| entry 3m | 44, -16.9, -32.4 | 302, +342.8, +247.4, +11.03 | 15% | 95/76/97 | 0 |

**Leader (last 7 days): stop 0.3x** vs live: +1.0 vs -6.6 tickets this week, +336.3 vs +293.9 since 13 Sep.
Dropped so far: time 1h (11 Oct), time 12h (11 Oct), no stop, 12h (11 Oct), 0.3x, 12h (11 Oct), no stop, 12h, 250k-2M (11 Oct), 0.3x, 12h, 3m (11 Oct), band 150k-1M (15 Oct), entry 8m (18 Oct)

A leader is a candidate for Analyst 1, not a switch: a rule change goes through the pipeline and only Ben switches (D-030).