# GRIDFWD: grid leaders vs live rule, forward (Test Manager, paper)

Made 12 Oct 09:20 UTC. Pools created from 11 Oct 08:00 UTC. Same pools, same exit (stop 0.5x, pull, 4 h), 1% fee + 2% impact per side. Paper only; only Ben switches live (D-030).

| arm | rule | closed | open | mean x | median | wins >=2x | total | pulls | mean ex-pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIVE | +300s, 250k-1M | 20 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0 | -13.0 | 4 | 0.43 |
| E3M | +180s, 250k-1M | 23 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0 | -14.4 | 4 | 0.45 |
| B2M | +300s, 250k-2M | 22 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0 | -13.7 | 4 | 0.46 |
| T5x.5 | +300s, 250k-1M, trail 0.5 of peak after 5x | 20 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0 | -13.0 | 4 | 0.43 |
| T5x.7 | +300s, 250k-1M, trail 0.7 of peak after 5x | 20 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0 | -13.0 | 4 | 0.43 |
| T10x.5 | +300s, 250k-1M, trail 0.5 of peak after 10x | 20 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0 | -13.0 | 4 | 0.43 |
| T10x.7 | +300s, 250k-1M, trail 0.7 of peak after 10x | 20 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0 | -13.0 | 4 | 0.43 |

Kill: T arms mean not above LIVE after 40 closed (they only differ on pools that reach the target; judge on total). E3M or B2M mean not above LIVE after 40 closed per arm, or LIVE mean < 1.0 over 40.
Replay (grid since 13 Sep, tickets): live +291.5, entry 3m +335.3, band 250k-2M +320.5.