# A2-WLINK-K1 paper test (Test Manager, #765) - 16 Oct 03:11 UTC
Rule (fw/a2-wlink-44.md): fee-100 v3 pool; 1st winner-linked wallet (K=1, infra = wallets in >=10 early pools) (early buyer of an earlier runner, 6 h lag, infra excluded) buys within 180 s of pool start; buy first print >=10 s later; tp5 / stop 0.5 / 4 h; 3% fee + 5% slip. Arm A cap<150k (spec), arm B all caps.
- Winner wallets known 13244; infra excluded 1303; pools with early buys 3665; signal pools waiting 0; skipped {'no entry print': 3}
- Arm A (cap<150k): n 100, mean 1.89x, median 0.94x, win 46, tp 28, stop 35, runners 4
- Arm B (all caps): n 192, mean 1.37x, median 0.46x, win 54, tp 35, stop 109, runners 56
- Arm A, entry print >60 s after signal (thin, slow fill): n 3, mean 0.92x, median 0.92x, win 0, tp 0, stop 0, runners 0
- Arm A forward only (since 10 Oct 11:50 UTC): n 53, mean 1.70x, median 0.92x, win 23, tp 12, stop 16, runners 3
- Replay expectation (A2 #748, no haircut): 2.03x at cap<150k, 0.97 at >=150k (haircut ~ -0.15). Kill: arm A mean < 1.0 after n=40 closed trades.
- Caveats: pool pull not modeled (prints only); thin 20-60k pools; winner list from v3tx.db early table (12 Sep-6 Oct) plus v3live signers.