---
name: golden-goose-gg
description: Full forensic screen of GG / Golden Goose on Robinhood Chain, 6 Sep 2026 - the verified GLD distributor, the wallet-by-wallet launch cohort ledger, current holder structure, and the undisclosed allocation formula. Read before any GG discussion or any "pays holders in a real asset" screen.
sources: [cowork]
aliases: [GG, golden goose, thegoldengoose, GoldenGooseRH, geegold]
---

# GG / Golden Goose, screened 6 Sep 2026

Token **0xcaCB0e9caCcee63ec4d82952E561a291c68Bcb68**, Robinhood Chain. Launchpad **pons**. Launched 28 Aug 2026 23:57 UTC, supply 1,000,000,000, mcap ~$5.4M to $5.7M.
Site thegoldengoose.live, X @GoldenGooseRH. Its own words: "A golden goose is any asset that quietly prints income while you sleep. This one prints gold."
Companions: [[rh-chain-infrastructure]], [[pullback-comeback]], [[operator-graph]].

## TICKER COLLISION, resolve it every time
Nine other RH contracts carry the GG ticker, all dust (mcap $2,456 to $4,215): 0xA4c7ada640dADd3894498591Ad288A453bcbD779, 0x2a864a06295061BC3B62f15CB124314CB86E6c01, 0x97CBD22C001776c40C1470322dFba2Bc105479e3 "good game", 0x25347182F20D0947a70ae8154bd880c393dAE249 "Guan Guan", 0x3080975F683555D4E5Ec9cC58178a9751456EE4a "Goblin Gold", 0x85311DF04Fa3B841619EDb5d4Bf80098ecD594e9 "Gold Grass", 0x6Ea3713AB19070D5899f1C7d45d3059147405871 "good game", 0x48DDb0591736aad1F8969E9718934a8eaE951e18 "Green Gremlins", 0x60B0f6C8a2dFccf9AFe6E39D264c41c266b2C4F0 "good game".

## THE MECHANISM IS REAL AND IT IS VERIFIED ON CHAIN, not taken from the site
Trading fees settle in **GLD = tokenised SPDR Gold Shares, 0xc9a981fee1f9dec688bb123ccdecc63d0debfc4e, 18 decimals, $409 a unit, $4.5M liquidity and $4M+ daily volume on this chain**, and are paid out to holders.
- **DISTRIBUTOR: 0x44db4ecd5b0048d55c762e32ff53afaeccf75ed7** (a contract). Proof it is GG's and not a generic router: of 2,036 GLD transfers into GG's twelve largest wallet holders, **2,016 came from this one address**.
- **Lifetime: 61,257 payouts, 457.448 GLD = $187,096, to 2,579 distinct wallets, over 9 days.** 523 inbound fee settlements.
- Daily, in dollars at $409/GLD: 29 Aug $41,454 (4,070 payouts) · 30 Aug $26,363 · 31 Aug $16,429 · 1 Sep $35,914 · 2 Sep $28,858 (17,615 payouts) · 3 Sep $10,631 · 4 Sep $12,565 · 5 Sep $12,176 · 6 Sep $2,700 (part-day to 06:00 UTC).
- **Run rate has settled near $12,200/day, down 4x from day one. On a $5.4M cap that is 0.22%/day, ~81%/yr, and it decays with volume.**
- **METHOD NOTE: finding a distributor by scanning ALL of a reward token's transfers does not work (GLD is broadly traded; the top senders by recipient count are routers). The method that works is REVERSE: take the token's actual large wallet holders, pull inbound transfers of the reward token to each, and find the common sender.** Two false candidates rejected this way: 0x7f86906606d685614e99a046ba42c477cd03123d and 0x45c4f0ec83ebbaf2a7306d738a530ae87d499b56, neither of whose recipients hold any GG.

## THE FLAG: payouts are NOT proportional to holdings and the formula is undisclosed
The project's own page admits "neither this page nor the current pons docs state a numerical holder threshold or disclose the allocation formula." Measured over 9 days:
- **0xdd59b539dab08fcd8c0bd4b3d1de02023c519f8e holds 1.729% of supply, received $183.**
- **0x8753e78c7fcd2c274405bb97d2393ccc4217745e holds 1.078% of supply, received $5,297.**
Two thirds the position, **29x the payout**. A yield that cannot be computed from your own position size cannot be priced, and whoever controls allocation can stop including a wallet. **This is the single strongest bear point and it is structural, not a price observation.**

## LAUNCH COHORT, wallet by wallet. THEY ARE OUT.
42 wallets, all hop 0 (three hops of expansion found no downstream wallet above 0.02% of supply: they did not obfuscate, they sold). Venue set: 0x8366a39cc670b4001a1121b8f6a443a643e40951 (v4 PoolManager), 0x8876789976decbfcbbbe364623c63652db8c0904 (UniversalRouter), 0xa687b664662b96b180346d699a6d5b42e9b05d31, 0xb92fe925dc43a0ecde6c8b1a2709c170ec4fff4f, 0xd89f6933a8ef11c2939054c0e287ecb327817242 (GG/WETH pool).
- **Received 16.35% of supply · sold 14.64% into venues · moved 1.63% out · still holds 0.0752% = $4,301.**
- **41 of the 42 wallets are completely empty ($0). The only one with anything is 0xe915ea16c03d9b0b92e216a79d7c544f988e644e at 0.0752% / $4,301, last sale 4 Sep 06:54.**
- Biggest sellers: 0xbf6c6f756033faab8a5b2ee8da8835e0d9e0651b 1.993% over 29 sells (last 3 Sep 11:44) · 0x1440131e016f7f0dd53e63fc2a57a396c34bcf4d 1.012% · 0x5250dbcf6ac11c4c2cbd8dcaf5a6d019f3268ea8 0.929% over 33 sells · 0xee50e7766f71c524da5f93b90396cbd96c49055b 0.895% · 0x950f87406b0d8511a83c92b6ea5a850b7b9ba0b5 0.866% · 0xe3a4527faf35f166b9856d2c41ff9eb7d4bf68b6 0.834% · 0x6704043f2c37e112c65a06c1794e52c31d8dc6a8 0.817%.
- **Most of it went out on launch day: 26 of 42 wallets have their last sale on 29 Aug. Nothing since 4 Sep 06:54, so about two days of zero cohort selling.**
- **The 1.63% "moved" was NOT obfuscation. Chased it: all four destinations are CONTRACTS (routers/aggregators) holding $0 today: 0x65050a9b7e5075a2ba5ced7b1b64ee66262c40dc (752B, took 1.452%), 0xb300000b72deaeb607a12d5f54773d1c19c7028d (180B), 0x36dc95f1f088e11c0066dc19173f745655002bc2 (6,752B), 0x2a7f3d7486641c77600b9b9256132755c8aebb4f (3,055B). So the cohort effectively sold ~16.3% of the 16.35% it received. It is 100% out.**

## LOCKED SUPPLY, and it is a hard lock
**0x267444d099b10fb5ed7c3cc7b7c767adca574952 holds 8.163% ($466,612). This is the Pons V2 V2LaunchLocker, the same contract that holds OPTIMUS supply. Its bytecode contains NO `a9059cbb` transfer selector at all, so the tokens cannot leave.** Report it, never score it as overhang.

## CURRENT HOLDER STRUCTURE, rebuilt from all 418,143 transfers since launch
6,000 holders (fomo). Top 10 = 23.94%. Top 25 = **wallets 25.57%, contracts 12.01%**.
| holder | % supply | $ | kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x267444d099b10fb5ed7c3cc7b7c767adca574952 | 8.163 | $466,612 | LOCKER, cannot move |
| 0x8366a39cc670b4001a1121b8f6a443a643e40951 | 3.330 | $190,343 | v4 PoolManager (pool liquidity) |
| 0x1b72ee84b5675809d3b061a0046798cd61b31de1 | 2.705 | $154,597 | wallet (7702) |
| 0x4febf9186c71d7ed000510f3da6321e6386c6740 | 2.146 | $122,661 | wallet (7702) |
| 0x05f17efba51855fd22979d61d111a175dfe5189b | 2.123 | $121,365 | wallet (7702) |
| 0xd4cf04bc9d7c80b49c6c30a633f7b9bd5370b4d6 | 2.091 | $119,525 | wallet (7702) |
| 0xdd59b539dab08fcd8c0bd4b3d1de02023c519f8e | 1.729 | $98,854 | wallet (7702) |
| 0x4fe775d1b80e14db3bcb35440c4091a30d3ef920 | 1.503 | $85,897 | wallet (7702) |
| **0x0a6ebed0155edb4b21d92ad02897a626cd90119e** | **1.364** | **$77,965** | **unipcs** |
| 0x8753e78c7fcd2c274405bb97d2393ccc4217745e | 1.078 | $61,630 | wallet |
- **Largest single movable wallet is 2.705%. No dominant holder. This is ordinary distribution.**
- **unipcs's wallet independently re-confirmed here: 1.364% / 13.6M GG matches fomo's unipcs entry ($78,449, 13.6M GG) to the token.**

## SOCIAL / fomo book, 6 Sep
2,435 tracked holders on fomo. Long with size, with entry caps: metaversejoji $155,558 (27M, entry $3.9M MC, +44%) · Onchainmetrics $123,423 (21.4M, entry $5.3M) · himgajria $120,268 (20.9M, entry $2.5M, +129%) · LA50197934 $99,469 · **unipcs $78,450 (13.6M, entry $4.8M MC, +17.8%, held 5d 19h, 509 likes, "i should have bought more")** · wrld_sol $59,733 (entry $739.9K MC, +677%, held 17d 18h).
Flagged **"Unverified token"** on fomo. Recent tape skewed to buys: 172 buys / 84 sells, $44.1K buy volume vs $13.7K sell, 114 buyers vs 73 sellers.

## PRICE SHAPE, measured on the GG/USDG 2% base pool 0xe8dc17753ee2e0614e54a2963cfcf9743e0ef4dbfc939200a730733684e72a04
ATH 30 Aug 04:00 UTC $0.012918. Post-ATH low 1 Sep 18:00 UTC $0.003780. Now ~$0.00546 to $0.00575.
**-56% off ATH · low is 4.5 days old · 1.50x above it · 7d -37.3% · vol7d $10.4M = 6.83x the prior week · higher_low 1.02 (barely).**
- **NOT bottomed by the [[pullback-comeback]] test: the low is days old but the higher low is 1.02 and it fell 37% in a week when the chain's revenue rose 16x. Bounce inside a downtrend, not a base.**
- **AGGREGATE LIQUIDITY IS $998,352 ACROSS 20 POOLS, not the ~$96K to $212K that DexScreener's headline pool and fomo show. Both single-pool figures are wrong for this token. Sum GeckoTerminal `tokens/{ca}/pools` reserve_in_usd.** Aggregate 24h volume $2,950,453.
- Liquidity is fragmented: GG/USDG 2% $424,918 · gld/GG $211,574 · GG/USDG 3.86% $114,226 · GG/WETH 1% $96,722 · GG/USDG 7% $63,607, plus 15 smaller.

## VERDICT 6 Sep 2026
The payout is real, large and verified. The cohort is gone. The lock is a hard lock. **But the low is 4.5 days old, the payout has decayed 4x, and the allocation formula is undisclosed and demonstrably not proportional.**
**WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT, checkable: GLD payouts holding above $12,000/day for a full week WHILE price stops making lower lows. The payout is the thesis; it has already decayed 4x and price is following it down. If the payout stabilises and price does not, that gap is the trade.**

## 6 Sep 2026 ~07:45 UTC — "WHO KEEPS SELLING GG?" ANSWERED. THE SELLERS ARE THE REWARD EARNERS.
- [stated] Ben: "Somebody keeps selling off Golden Goose, GG, for some reason. I'm trying to find out when this will be done because there is buying pressure that keeps getting sold off."

### THE ANSWER: it is a yield farm, not a whale. Buy GG, get paid gold, dump the GG, keep the gold.
Took the top 40 recipients of GLD from the distributor and measured each one's GG balance change over 7 days. **Every one of the top 16 earners is a net seller. 19 of the ~30 that hold GG are net sellers, 11 net buyers. The sellers dumped 171,036,739 GG = 17.10% of supply in 7 days.**
| GLD earner | GLD earned | GG 7d ago | GG now | change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4bbd05b0291646cb889e3a2cc2fb3b114ff3bca0 | 14.749 | 30,049,568 | 3,547,002 | -26.50M |
| 0xf3d0a15cb8fb0be35a02acd5404fc2a55d4bb2e6 | 15.293 | 20,968,124 | **0** | -20.97M |
| 0xfdf66786802bc1522f2d3789caf0d7da8e419265 | 8.570 | 18,453,997 | **0** | -18.45M |
| 0x6b7276f93c363d211e1cdc9344afa34252f8fc40 | 2.967 | 14,960,171 | **0** | -14.96M |
| 0x5c9b9696ebf9cd0b69e5a21d55c1d3383d6a8665 | 4.814 | 14,056,931 | **0** | -14.06M |
| 0x8753e78c7fcd2c274405bb97d2393ccc4217745e | 12.963 | 21,021,000 | 10,782,082 | -10.24M |
| 0xe1e58371aa33b6affc50e47955fff7e5d7bc3e3d | 4.248 | 14,500,207 | 5,042,964 | -9.46M |
| 0xa8058606de05e3eba0ccefdf589b046f86de42e6 | 4.192 | 9,035,181 | **0** | -9.04M |
| 0x93bf6b38b97297c73f727cd5ca76c000dfd62fed | 5.064 | 10,283,869 | 1,360,949 | -8.92M |
| 0x17e9d5945dcea0e5f51e9915b78e3be71ee0731b | 3.107 | 8,443,092 | **0** | -8.44M |
| 0x712b009be8006d28738fd4810ee1440e277bae03 | 2.421 | 7,130,935 | **0** | -7.13M |
| 0x776b1e178bd80fea40999bf4291e30af1a56ec10 | 2.735 | 5,700,000 | **0** | -5.70M |
| 0xd4fa721bc037916a00df2b870089f616820c518f | 2.504 | 4,744,978 | **0** | -4.74M |
| 0xc4da216c43db9df603f38c341c629d463b0ce50f | 2.454 | 4,635,022 | **0** | -4.64M |
| 0x3d59b2112c5476ab061e76200c3f8c16f2eaed7c | 4.102 | 5,923,813 | 4,000,000 | -1.92M |
- **THE PATTERN IS ONE-AND-DONE, NOT A GRIND. Each wallet dumps its whole bag in one or two days and goes to zero, then a different one starts. That is why it reads as "endless selling" on the tape: it is a queue, not a person.** Example single-day exits: 0xfdf66786802bc1522f2d3789caf0d7da8e419265 -18.45M all on 1 Sep; 0x6b7276f93c363d211e1cdc9344afa34252f8fc40 -14.96M all on 30 Aug; 0x4bbd05b0291646cb889e3a2cc2fb3b114ff3bca0 -30.25M all on 3 Sep.
- **The one true grinder is 0x8753e78c7fcd2c274405bb97d2393ccc4217745e**: -2.52M, -1.95M, -3.45M, -3.00M on 2/3/4/5 Sep, then **+0.68M on 6 Sep (it started buying back)**. It still holds 10,782,082 GG. **It is also the wallet that earned the anomalous $5,297 payout while holding less than a wallet that got $183. The biggest earner is the biggest seller.**
- **Remaining in the identified farmer wallets: roughly 24.7M GG, about $135,000 at $0.00546, against ~$3.0M of daily volume. The named bags are nearly finished.**

### THE ECONOMICS, which is what decides when it stops
Yield is roughly **4% to 5% per week on position value** (0x8753e78c earned $5,302 on ~$115,000 of GG; 0x4bbd05b0 earned $6,032 on ~$164,000). Price fell **37% in that same week**. **So farming only pays if you exit fast, and the exit is what makes the price fall. That is a reflexive loop, and it is self-limiting rather than permanent: the payout has already decayed 4x from $41k/day to $12k/day, which shrinks the reason to farm.**
- **NEGATIVE RESULT, and it is important: the fee machine itself does NOT sell GG.** The distributor's only funder is **0xd3afeb2a57f70ef218aa82451c51b2fb0416ac9e** (a 1,932-byte contract, 524 settlements, 458.484 GLD = $187,519 lifetime). It has **zero GG transfers in or out, ever**. Fees accrue in GLD directly (the gld/GG pool exists for exactly this), so **there is no structural protocol-level GG seller.** The selling is entirely holder behaviour.

### Aggregate flow says the wave has already broken
Net GG into venues per day (positive = net selling): 30 Aug +12.65M · 31 Aug -16.94M · 1 Sep -19.44M · 2 Sep **+29.02M** · 3 Sep -20.92M · 4 Sep +11.15M · 5 Sep **-6.33M** · 6 Sep **-1.26M**. CAVEAT: LP adds and removes move GG in and out of the v4 PoolManager without being trades, so this series is noisy and must not be read as pure buy/sell.
**Cleaner confirmation from the tape, 6 Sep 07:45: price $0.006590, mcap $6,590,187, h1 +16.14%, h6 +20.60%, h24 +2.75%. Buys beat sells at every window: 1h 244/184, 6h 1152/925, 24h 5002/4553. Aggregate liquidity $591,655 across base pairs, vol24 $3,002,357.** The price is up 21% from the $0.00546 used in the tables above.

### STANDING METHOD, this is now the way to answer "who is selling" on any Uniswap v4 token
**Do NOT group venue-bound transfers by `from`. On v4 every sell shows the ROUTER as the sender, so the top-22 seller list comes back as 22 contracts and tells you nothing.** Instead: pull the token's full transfer log for the window, compute a per-address NET BALANCE DELTA, drop contracts, and rank by net outflow. Anchor to live `balanceOf` so "held N days ago" is derived, not replayed. Script kept at /tmp/bt/ggsell2.py.
**Second gate, learned the same run: when a whole column prints 0.000%, check the units. `total_supply()` returns RAW units; dividing human-unit amounts by it divides by 1e18 twice.**

## 8 Sep 2026 ~03:00 UTC — "IS ANYONE BIG ACCUMULATING? IS THE CHART MANIPULATED?" ANSWERED
- [stated] Ben, with a screenshot of @fbgThanos "There is some extreme criminal activity going on with this chart": "are there big wallets accumulating GG/golden goose? it looks like the chart is being manipulated. find out what is going on behind the scenes. a big guy (HIM) and some other hey guys are top holders"

### MARKET STATE. It broke down hard.
- **Price $0.004098 · mcap $4,098,950 · h24 -39.76%** (was $6,590,187 on 6 Sep 07:45). Aggregate liquidity **$474,472 across 13 pools**, aggregate v24 $2,197,604. Deepest pools: GG/GLD $187,413 · GG/USDG 2% $156,410 · GG/WETH $95,598.
- Daily closes: 02 Sep $0.004956 · 03 $0.006973 · 04 $0.005467 · 05 $0.006394 · 06 $0.006095 · 07 **$0.003971** · 08 $0.004093. **A staircase down, no spike, no sideways chop.**

### THE 7 SEP WATERFALL HAS A SINGLE CAUSE, AND IT IS ONE WALLET
- **`0xd4cf04bc9d7c80b49c6c30a633f7b9bd5370b4d6` sold 10,455,351 GG inside the 07 Sep 18:00 UTC hour**, exactly half its bag, its only move in four days. Price went $0.004889 (17:00) to $0.003872 (20:00), **-21% in three hours** on $220k of volume. It still holds 10,455,351 GG (1.046%).
- This wallet was **#6 on the 6 Sep holder table at 2.091%**. First bought 29 Aug 07:00 in **two legs** at an average entry near $0.00385, so it dumped roughly at cost.
- **POSSIBLE IDENTITY, NOT CONFIRMED: it held 20,910,703 GG on 6 Sep, which is exactly the "20.9M" fomo showed for @himgajria.** Could not verify: prod-api.fomo.family returns 401 without a login token even from inside a fomo.family tab, and the fomo web app refuses to render below a desktop width. **Entry cap does NOT corroborate** (measured ~$3.85M MC, fomo reported $2.5M for himgajria; the same method overstates unipcs's known wallet by ~20%, so the method has drift). Treat as a size coincidence until fomo is readable.

### YES, ONE BIG WALLET IS ACCUMULATING, AND IT IS THE CLEANEST BUY PATTERN ON THIS TOKEN
**`0x391bbcb2652a45819f5724d0c155d9d0b0935ab1`** · plain EOA, no 7702 · nonce 1783 (established wallet, not fresh).
- **77 buy legs. ZERO sell legs, ever.** First buy 04 Sep 00:29 UTC.
- Daily: 04 Sep +4,547,685 · 05 Sep +2,213,889 · 06 Sep +6,657,739 · **07 Sep +10,620,198. It buys more as price falls.**
- **Holds 24,039,511 GG = 2.404% of supply = $98,514.** Average entry measured ~$0.00555 (MC ~$5.5M), so it is roughly **-26% underwater** and still adding.
- Buys in small clips through routers (`0xb92fe925dc43a0ecde6c8b1a2709c170ec4fff4f` x53, `0xd89f6933a8ef11c2939054c0e287ecb327817242` x12, UniversalRouter `0x8876789976decbfcbbbe364623c63652db8c0904` x5). No OTC block, no single wallet feeding it.
- It also collects the GLD yield (116 receipts, 1.5338 GLD = $627) and **has never sold a token of it forward**.

### THE OTHER TOP HOLDERS ARE FROZEN, NOT SELLING
Balances live 8 Sep, with 4-day net change:
| wallet | holds | % | 4d net | 1d net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x267444d099b10fb5ed7c3cc7b7c767adca574952 | 81,632,653 | 8.163% | 0 | 0 (Pons V2 locker, cannot move) |
| 0x1b72ee84b5675809d3b061a0046798cd61b31de1 | 27,220,182 | 2.722% | +173,777 | 0 |
| **0x391bbcb2652a45819f5724d0c155d9d0b0935ab1** | **24,039,511** | **2.404%** | **+19,491,826** | **+10,620,198** |
| 0x4febf9186c71d7ed000510f3da6321e6386c6740 | 21,459,283 | 2.146% | 0 | 0 |
| 0x05f17efba51855fd22979d61d111a175dfe5189b | 21,232,634 | 2.123% | 0 | 0 |
| 0xdd59b539dab08fcd8c0bd4b3d1de02023c519f8e | 17,294,436 | 1.729% | +17,294,436 (bought before 4 Sep window closed) | 0 |
| 0x4fe775d1b80e14db3bcb35440c4091a30d3ef920 | 16,772,984 | 1.677% | +8,677,631 | +1,694,190 |
| 0x0a6ebed0155edb4b21d92ad02897a626cd90119e (unipcs) | 13,639,811 | 1.364% | **0** | 0 |
| 0xd4cf04bc9d7c80b49c6c30a633f7b9bd5370b4d6 | 10,455,351 | 1.046% | **-10,455,351** | **-10,455,351** |
| 0x8753e78c7fcd2c274405bb97d2393ccc4217745e (the grinder) | 4,500,000 | 0.450% | -12,073,276 | -1,000,000 |
- **unipcs has not moved a single token in four days.** Neither have the 21.46M and 21.23M holders. The 27.2M holder added a token dust amount.
- Other real 4-day accumulators, all still holding: `0xd4a508826bd44edaa55a1a200c063e7828963765` +11,081,214 (holds 12,096,400) · `0x62938300b01d7158232f7863d2db807fcea80c00` +10,000,000 · `0xd9a250ebcd8fb86dcc0454e89eceb1e02181bba7` +5,000,000 (holds 10,000,000) · `0xa2df12f62bc948696158136a748879d5ee36a5b5` +5,368,924 (all in 24h, first buy 7 Sep) · `0xa316d792ed2a00dc13283a583fe54c42bf4735d5` +4,797,882 (first buy 7 Sep) · `0x2dbaf98620ac5bbe3441f756feff82702d095b1a` +5,288,570 · `0x92daee13d6a20951353627587228bd284805cbff` +4,519,184.

### MANIPULATION TEST: NO. THE BOOK IS JUST THIN.
- **Net GG into venues in 24h: v4 PoolManager +18,325,343 · v3 GG/WETH pool +10,329,006 = 28,654,349 GG net sold ≈ $117,406.** Against $474,472 of aggregate liquidity that is enough to move price 40% with nobody doing anything clever.
- **The symmetry is the story: one wallet sold 10,455,351 in an hour, another bought 10,620,198 across the day, and price still fell 40% because the rest of the farmer queue was selling into the same thin book.**
- **No LP rug.** Both pools' GG balances went UP over the window (PoolManager holds 48,396,601, v3 pool 16,257,766). The liquidity dollar figure fell because price fell, not because anyone pulled.
- **No wash trading found.** Every net-zero round-tripper with large gross is a router or the PoolManager itself (`0xb92fe925dc43a0ecde6c8b1a2709c170ec4fff4f`, `0x39b38686a19836ac10162c490e4558e120cbbe5f`, `0x8f10b468b06c6fd214b65f87778827f7d113f996`, `0x039ec98a76f111092d4751365ff09dd2aec301e8`). Pass-through by construction, not fake volume.
- **The @fbgThanos tweet is almost certainly NOT about GG.** Posted 07 Sep **06:25 UTC** (13:25 Bangkok), no ticker, image only; his follow-ups say "too suppressed by large holders" and "needs one last capitulation". His surrounding posts that morning and the next day are $HOTDOG, $MOO, $AI and Flywheel. The chart shape (spike, then long tight sideways chop, ending mid-range) does not match GG, which has been a clean staircase down with no consolidation shelf.

### THE 12 SEP FARMER FORECAST IS HOLDING, and the payout keeps shrinking
GLD distributor `0x44db4ecd5b0048d55c762e32ff53afaeccf75ed7`, measured 8 Sep: 486.04 GLD = **$198,790 lifetime**.
| day | legs | GLD | $ at $409 | wallets paid | first-ever paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep | 5,798 | 23.333 | $9,543 | 685 | 147 |
| 04 Sep | 3,255 | 32.827 | $13,426 | 409 | 59 |
| 05 Sep | 4,024 | 30.587 | $12,510 | 453 | 15 |
| 06 Sep | 1,978 | 18.761 | $7,673 | 151 | 8 |
| 07 Sep | 1,601 | 15.173 | $6,206 | 212 | 22 |
| 08 Sep (to 02:55) | 138 | 1.262 | $516 | 60 | 0 |
- **Recruitment is dead: 0 to 22 new wallets a day against 1,095 on day one.** The leading indicator in the 6 Sep forecast said under 50/day means no new wave. Confirmed.
- **Payout is now ~$4,200 to $6,200/day, on a $4.1M cap = 0.11% to 0.15%/day, roughly 40% to 55%/yr, down from 81%/yr on 6 Sep and from $41,454 on day one.** The yield is following volume down exactly as the reflexive-loop model said it would.

## 6 Sep 2026 ~10:45 UTC — "WHEN WILL THE FARMERS BE OUT?" PREDICTED, two independent methods agreeing
- [stated] Ben: "when will this be done? When will the farmers be out? Predicted."

### THE FORECAST: ~6 more days at the current rate. Around 12 SEPTEMBER 2026.
Built from the full farmer universe: every one of the **2,580 wallets that has ever been paid GLD** by 0x44db4ecd5b0048d55c762e32ff53afaeccf75ed7, each one's live `balanceOf`, and each one's 3-day net balance delta.

**Method 1, stock over rate.** Split the 674 wallets still holding GG into those actually selling and those not:
| group | wallets | GG held | $ at $0.00659 |
|---|---|---|---|
| **still selling** (net down over 3 days) | **89** | **86,204,020** | **$568,084** |
| not selling (flat or adding) | 585 | 667,620,783 | $4,399,620 |
- Sellers' rate: **14,698,197 GG/day = $96,861/day = 1.47% of supply/day.**
- **RUNWAY = 86.2M / 14.7M = 5.9 DAYS.**
- **The sell-side is $568k against $4.4M held firm. The people not selling outweigh the sellers 7.7 to 1.**
- Biggest remaining sellers with their own runway: 0x8753e78c7fcd2c274405bb97d2393ccc4217745e 10,782,082 GG, 1.92M/day, 5.6d · 0x8b87ba04b378efc94d42f6d82ef7e6f52e48e4fd 4,694,244, 1.53M/day, 3.1d · 0x3d59b2112c5476ab061e76200c3f8c16f2eaed7c 4,000,000, 0.64M/day, 6.3d · 0x678c0d26769abaf1875acaa8ab521a48b1450aef 3,336,777, 0.50M/day, 6.7d · 0xe61af01a348f2ffa7a3ac9d774e43d9bf57e6c96 2,328,145, 0.46M/day, 5.1d · 0x15d3b9b8e684f370604b2eac2bb659b8cc7173d5 2,053,398, 0.44M/day, 4.6d · 0x5b5d7bb95be6134d7cbb83512898408e0574dcd1 1,809,568, 0.83M/day, 2.2d · 0xdf5b31aaeacc4a09b4f837e672de0668aaaa6992 506,527, 0.4d · 0x50c0b87bdf73888cc5972a40f060ee8d08e836b2 658,580, 1.0d · 0x7192f95d32d8e0f6f8ceb83266e688a5d4394bcc 521,763, 0.9d.

**Method 2, the cohort exit curve.** Group every farmer by the day it FIRST got paid, then ask what share of that cohort is at zero now. This handles the right-censoring that ruins a naive survival estimate (the token is only 8.3 days old, so p75 and p90 of "time to zero" both collapse onto the token's own age and are meaningless).
| entry cohort | wallets | age (days) | % already at zero |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug | 1,095 | 8.3 | **82%** |
| 30 Aug | 257 | 7.4 | **82%** |
| 31 Aug | 207 | 6.4 | 77% |
| 01 Sep | 231 | 5.4 | 75% |
| 02 Sep | 565 | 4.3 | 61% |
| 03 Sep | 151 | 3.4 | 68% |
| 04 Sep | 55 | 2.4 | 33% |
| 05 Sep | 15 | 1.1 | 40% |
| 06 Sep | 4 | 0.4 | 0% |
- **The curve TERMINATES at ~82%, it does not run to 100%. About 18% of every cohort becomes a real holder and never sells.** So the exit is finite per cohort, not an endless bleed.
- Each cohort takes about 7 days to reach that 82% plateau. **The last cohort of any size entered 2 Sep (565 wallets, still only 61% out) and the 3 to 5 Sep cohorts are 33% to 68% out. Those complete around 9 to 12 Sep.** Same answer as method 1, derived from a completely different quantity.

### THE DECISIVE LEADING INDICATOR: recruitment has already stopped
New wallets paid GLD for the first time, per day (6 Sep scaled from the 45%-complete UTC day):
**1,095 (29 Aug) · 257 · 207 · 231 · 565 (2 Sep) · 151 · 55 · 15 · 8 (6 Sep run rate).**
Wallets earning at all, per day: 1,095 · 1,010 · 732 · 1,255 · 1,205 · 689 · 397 · 453 · 325.
- **New entrants are down 99.3% from day one and 98.6% from the 2 Sep spike. No new cohort is forming, so there is no replacement wave behind the 89 wallets still selling.** This is the single number that decides whether the forecast holds.
- Payout, part-day scaled: $41,454 · $26,363 · $16,429 · $35,914 · $28,952 · $10,537 · $12,565 · $12,176 · **$8,908 run rate.** Still drifting down but nothing like the day-one collapse. Correcting the earlier line in this file: it is **$9k to $12k**, not a clean $12.2k plateau.

### WHAT WOULD BREAK THE FORECAST, and the one number to watch
**A volume spike re-inflates the payout, a new cohort forms, and the clock resets.** The tell is NEW WALLETS PAID PER DAY. Under ~50/day means no new wave and the 12 Sep estimate holds. Back over ~200/day means a fresh cohort has formed and the exit runs about 7 days from that date instead.
Honest limits: 8.3 days of history, one token, and the 82% plateau rests on two mature cohorts (29 and 30 Aug). The 3-day sell rate is volatile because the pattern is one-and-done dumps, so ±2 days on the estimate is realistic.