--- name: kingcobra-trades description: Scorecard of YouTube trader KingCobraTrades (0.31 retrace + Schiff pitchfork on BTC, ETH, TOTAL3, SPX), 21 videos 23 Aug to 29 Sep 2026 vs the tape. Read before quoting his levels or his altcoin "load up" plan. sources: [chat] aliases: [king cobra, kingcobratrades, cobra trader, 0.31 fib, schiff pitchfork trader] --- # Who - [stated] Ben asked 2 Oct 2026 to analyse https://www.youtube.com/@kingcobratrades, his Schiff pitchfork method and his accuracy, as a possible guide for macro BTC and alt direction while trading alt baskets. - Channel facts (Piped API 2 Oct 2026): 1,580 subs, 21 videos, all 23 Aug to 29 Sep 2026 ("new channel"). Sells a VIP Discord (app.kingcobratrade.com) and BloFin/Bitunix referral codes. Says on video he is "not claiming to be a great trader". No P&L ever shown. # Method (from his own 0.31 episode, 28 Sep, and the BTC videos) - 0.31 retrace: fib from a wave 2 low to a wave 3 high, only the 0.31 level, log scale on, drawn to the newest high; expects wave 4 to end there; wants candle BODY closes above it; deletes it once violated. Says "algorithms" buy it; no test offered. - Schiff pitchfork, weekly: P0 Aug 2024 low (about 51k, "6 months accumulation"), P1 ATH, P2 July 2026 low (about 58k). Median line = his target: 88k late Sep 2026, about 100k later; a second fork gives 93 to 94k. Same three pivots on TOTAL3 (median about 941B) and ETH. - Confluence he adds: supply/demand zones, minus 0.236 extension, liquidation heatmap, open interest vs price, fear and greed, SPX macro pitchfork, total vs SPX ratio. - Timing escape hatch in his own words: a median line target "could hit next year", and algorithms "need two or three touches" of a median line before it works. # Scorecard, BTC (Kraken daily, 2026) - 25 Aug short at about 78.5k, wanted a deep pullback: low 2 Sep 76.2k, 2.9 percent. Small hit. - 26 Aug: daily/weekly close above 79k flips him bullish, target 88k. Trigger 3 Sep close 81.3k. Then 7.9 percent drawdown to 74.9k (15 Sep) before 87.4k on 21 Sep. Target hit after 18 days, with a drawdown most stops do not survive. - 4 Sep supports 76k and 74.6k, liquidity 75.5k; 13 Sep wave IV target 75.4k then V to 86 to 88k: low 74,891 (0.7 percent off), then high 87,446 (0.6 percent off). Clear hit, levels and sequence. - 6 Sep and 21 to 22 Sep: 88k is strong resistance, play short: high 87.4k then minus 5.6 percent to 82.6k. Hit. - 23 Sep: next support 78k to 75k demand: bounced at 82.6k instead. Miss (so far). - 29 Sep: bullish, 88k target still, wants a sweep to 78 to 82k first: price 86.9k on 2 Oct, no sweep. Direction right, path wrong. - 3 Sep: 93k median target, "93k before 58k": open. - BTC tally: 4 hits, 1 small hit, 1 miss, 1 half, 1 open, n = 8 in 6 weeks. # Scorecard, other - ETH 6 Sep target 2,800: high 2,806.7 on 21 Sep. Hit. 18 Sep opened a hedge short at about 2,611: ETH 2,742 on 2 Oct, short 5 percent under water. - SPX 24 Aug: "macro top at the macro pitchfork", title "largest crash in history"; shorted stocks 2 Sep at about 7,666; 10 Sep "beginning of the crash". SPX high 7,790 (17 Aug), low 7,507 (16 Sep, minus 3.6 percent), 7,666 on 1 Oct. Six weeks later: no crash, short flat, 22 Sep reframed as "algorithms need multiple touches". Same ratchet pattern as Venture ([[venture-charts]] style: timing calls reframed, never scored wrong). - Alts 23 and 26 Aug "altcoins could take a hit / selling at the 0.31": SOL went 95 to 110 first (27 Aug), then 98 (2 Sep). Miss short term, half right a week later. - Alts 29 Sep: TOTAL3 839B; wants a pullback into a weekly demand zone 715B to 790B (he names 788B, 6 percent below) to "load up", then median line 941B (12 percent above). Says alts are strong and may not give the dip. Open. # FULL HISTORY RE-SCORE, 3 Oct 2026 (SUPERSEDES the 2 Oct verdict below) - [stated] Ben asked 3 Oct 2026 to score his whole X and Telegram history, after the 2 Oct read said "good for HTF". - Accounts: X @kingcobratrader (10.4k followers, 7,574 posts, since Jan 2023; many lookalike impostor accounts named "CobraTrader - 0.31"); Telegram t.me/cobratrader21 (3,115 subs, 2,410 posts Dec 2023 to Oct 2026). - Pulled 3,628 tweets (2,452 originals, Oct 2023 to 2 Oct 2026) + all 2,410 TG posts; extracted 1,363 X calls, 103 TG trades, 147 TG forecasts, 344 TG win claims. Scored vs Coinbase daily BTC/ETH/SOL, Yahoo SPX, OKX alts. - Direction, one vote per asset per day, vs same-direction random dates within 60 days: BTC 382 days, 7d hit 50% vs 52% null, 30d 49% vs 51%, 90d 50% vs 51%. HTF-tagged BTC (69): 7d 33% vs 53%, 30d 38% vs 50%, 90d 53% vs 52%. ETH+SOL 90d 60% vs 61%. SPX 90d 67% vs 67%. Bearish calls worst (BTC down-calls 35 to 44% right). No edge at any horizon. - Numeric targets (161, median 8% away) vs same-distance random target: touched in 30d 50% vs 51%, 90d 66% vs 64%, 180d 70% vs 72%. No edge: he posts so many levels that some always hit. - Top/bottom + HTF calls (88, week-deduped): +15% his way before -10% against: 38% vs 41% random. - TG trades with stop and target (only 8, all Dec 2023 to Jun 2024; after that stops only in paid VIP): 7 stopped, 1 hit (BNB 25 Jan 2024, about 21R); tiny stops, huge R targets. Alt target calls Feb to May 2024: 1 of 7 hit within 180d (WIF). - Brag ratio: about 217 win posts ("to the dollar", "called it", "nailed") vs about 5 loss admissions across 4,862 posts. TG roughly 40% promotion (VIP, exchange referrals). - Verdict: NOT an HTF edge. The 2 Oct "levels 5 of 7 right" was a 6-week, one-leg sample of picked hits; full history scores at random. Use only as a list of levels other traders watch, never as direction or timing. - Raw data (temporary, this Cowork session scratchpad): x_all.json, tg_all.json, calls_x.json, batches/calls_tg.json, score*.py. # Verdict for Ben (2 Oct 2026, small sample, superseded above) - His LEVELS are good: where price turns was right 5 of 7 times in 6 weeks. His NARRATIVES are weak: the stock crash and the deep BTC pullback did not come, and misses get reframed with "next year" or "needs more touches". - The 0.31 is 0.382 minus a hair; nobody has tested the difference. [[reversal-zones]] found an exact fib line adds about 0 vs a random level at the same depth; depth (50 to 70 percent off ATH) and RSI did the work. Treat the 0.31 as a depth marker, not magic. - Pitchfork median line = a hand picked diagonal with open ended timing; [[trading-edge-hub]] has diagonal trendlines KILLED on memecoins (34 to 46 percent hold). Weekly BTC is a different market; n = 2 median targets here (88k hit, 93k open). - For alt baskets: his plan is +12 percent on the index from a 6 percent dip; equal weight alt baskets bleed (hub, PROVEN) and chain-2 breakout rule KILLED out of sample. His bullishness is not a basket edge; a defined entry (788B) with a written "wrong" level is. - Sample is 6 weeks, 1 cycle leg, no P&L. Re-score monthly; this file is the ledger. # Raw data (container, temporary) - /home/claude/subs/.txt (21 timestamped auto transcripts), meta.json (dates, durations, views), fr/key_*.jpg (chart frames: BTC 5h wave count 13 Sep, weekly Schiff fork 27 Sep, TOTAL3 fork 29 Sep). Route that worked from the container: api.piped.private.coffee/streams/ (captions + 360p); YouTube and Invidious blocked; Mac Desktop Commander and Chrome bridge both timed out 2 Oct 17:40 Bangkok.