---
name: longbow-bow
description: Deep dive on Longbow (BOW), the curated lending layer on Robinhood Chain, and the real lending landscape on that chain. Read whenever BOW, Longbow, longbow.cash, ARROW/Arrow Finance, or "the only lending project on Robinhood" comes up.
sources: [cowork]
aliases: [BOW, Longbow, longbowlend, longbow.cash, Arrow Finance, ARROW]
---
Related: [[crypto-token-research]]

- Deep dive 30 Aug 2026. BOW 0x451b42A15100C340CA12F7c66DE06fac5EA2D751 on Robinhood Chain. Contract is 3,248 bytes, byte-identical in size to DTF and MAST, ie the stock PonsV2LauncherToken: fixed 1B supply, no mint, deployer holds no privileges. Site longbow.cash, X @longbowlend (joined Jul 2026, 2,233 followers), first pool 8 Aug, "Longbow is live" 11 Aug
- Market 30 Aug: price about $0.00414, mcap $4.1M, aggregate liquidity $309k across 14 pairs, 24h volume $1.63M. ATH $0.005983 = $5.98M mcap on 29 Aug 11:00 UTC, so roughly 31% off ATH set 18 hours earlier. Deepest pair is BOW/SPY, which breaks naive GeckoTerminal USD pricing, use a USDG-quoted pool for the series
- THE PRODUCT IS REAL AND UNUSUALLY TRANSPARENT, which separates it from DTF and Mast Bond. longbow.cash/stats reads live from chain: TVL $66.3K, total supplied $55.6K, collateral posted $14.0K, utilization 14.3%, 49 live isolated markets with the oracle and LLTV published per market, mostly Chainlink-priced tokenized stocks. Three vaults: Core USDG $30.6K, Frontier USDG $4.8K at 5.13% APY, ETH 6.04 WETH. 30d TVL growth +1409%, period high $69,894, low $4,389
- BUT THE LENDING BUSINESS IS TINY. Essentially the only market with real borrowing is SPY/USDG at 69.2% utilization with $3,598 drawn, plus $255 on ETH/USDG. Almost every other market including AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, TSLA, META, GOOGL sits at 0% utilization. Total loans outstanding is roughly $3.9K. Best supply APY on the whole protocol is 0.71%
- Staking: 129.46M BOW staked = 12.9% of supply, 7.85% APR, $652.32 USDG left in the current 7-day period. Since 10 Aug the fee split is vault 80%, treasury 15% (cut from 20%), stakers 5%, paid in USDG. StakingRewards 0xeba502e1177f5fad9432c2deb273569d8381e01a
- THE THESIS AND ITS KILL SHOT. The dominant Fomo thesis, repeated by at least six separate holders, is "the AAVE of Robinhood" or "Morpho of Robinhood", quoting AAVE at $1.9B and MORPHO at $1.3B against BOW at $4.5M. On the very metric that comparison invokes, mcap divided by TVL, Morpho is about 0.14 and Longbow is about 62. BOW is therefore roughly 440x more expensive than Morpho per dollar of TVL. Cheap by mcap, extremely expensive by the business
- "NO OTHER MAJOR LENDING PROJECT ON ROBINHOOD CHAIN" IS FALSE. Morpho Blue itself is deployed there with $486.97M supplied and $414.66M borrowed (DefiLlama), its third biggest chain after Ethereum and Base, and it is the largest protocol on Robinhood Chain by TVL. Also live: Accountable $2.5M (uncollateralised), Native Credit Pool $413k, TermMax $75.6k, Kyros Finance, Sharewoods, USDAX. Longbow is not a Morpho competitor, its own bio says "Powered by @Morpho & @Ponsdotfamily", so it is a curated MetaMorpho-style vault and frontend layer sitting ON Morpho. The defensible version of the claim is "the only consumer credit frontend", not "the only lending"
- Competitor with a bigger token: Arrow Finance @arrowfinanceio, ARROW 0xf2915d1e3C1B0c769d0c756Ec43F1c1f6c99cD03 on Robinhood Chain, about $7.5M mcap and $5.0M liquidity, a full lend/borrow suite for tokens and onchain equities, still in development. Beware a second unrelated "Arrow" at 0x1564491895E51C95bB624B957F828526D4Ca12F4 with no socials
- Smart money on Fomo: unipcs (BonkGuy) holds $95,849 / 25.5M BOW at a $3.6M mcap average entry, so roughly flat, a bigger position than his DTF. bluntz_capital holds $44,396 at a $1.9M entry, +108%. 3K holders, top 10 hold 36.50%
- Negative signals to hold against it: V1 vault depositors could not exit because funds were lent out, and on 29 Aug the team injected $5,000 of idle liquidity so they could withdraw rather than wait on borrower repayments. Handled openly, but it is a real liquidity event at $66k scale. Separately there is a heavy phishing campaign, at least 12 accounts pushing fake "claim portal" and "eligibility check" links on crypto.cryptoloc.lol using the REAL BOW contract address, the same domain and operator as the DTF phishing found 27 Aug. An impostor token 0x9fb101579e716B2571aB069c2718cd06b69ffdD7 at about $8.7k mcap is also being shilled as BOW
- Ben pasted 0xd83DE980dB4e1118bF6B14da77B6fC4c15d7D6bd asking for the deep dive. That address has ZERO code, zero nonce and zero balance on 16 chains including Robinhood, Ethereum, Base, BSC, Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon, Avalanche, Unichain, Ink, HyperEVM, Sonic, Blast, Linea, Scroll, Mantle, Berachain, Abstract and Gnosis, has no DexScreener pairs and returns zero results on X. It is not a real contract anywhere

RE-SCREEN 31 Aug 2026 09:00 UTC. Ben re-pasted the CA. Price $0.007539, mcap $7.54M (was $4.1M on 30 Aug, +84% in 24h). Real liquidity $430,906 across 10 pairs with >$1k volume (was $309k). Volume 24h $3,361,896. Holders 4,557 on Blockscout (was ~2,353 per CryptoKemal 30 Aug, +94% in 44h). ATH $0.009316 intraday 30 Aug = $9.32M mcap, so -19% off an ATH set 26 hours earlier, NOT late
CORRECTION to the 30 Aug entry: the "49 live isolated markets" figure was taken at face value and was misleading. Longbow's own /api/markets returns 50 markets of which 26 have enabled:false and cap:0, and 24 of those hold exactly $200.00 of team seed with $0 borrowed. Only four markets have more than $100 borrowed. Also corrected: loans outstanding is now $20,333, not $3.9K
THE PROJECT PUBLISHES A FULL PUBLIC API, no bridge needed: www.longbow.cash/api/stats, /api/markets, /api/vaults, /api/health. Use these, never the rendered site. /api/health exposes an internal stats checker
KILL-SHOT FINDING: the PONS market (marketId 0xaba3ac501ce4c6b80c08ed0dba19e1ac0de495f17af3ed692a38e92d176a6c9e) is enabled:false with cap 0 in the interface, yet holds $26,196.77 supplied and $14,584.22 borrowed at 55.67% utilisation. That single hidden market is 71.7% of ALL borrowing on the protocol and is collateralised by a memecoin priced by a Uniswap V3 TWAP wrapper. @AltheusResearch called this on 30 Aug and was right
/api/health has "athHeld" and "floored" fields with issue "floor-lagging-ath", so the served TVL number is floored at its own all-time high and never shows a decline. On 31 Aug served == real == 132254.61 and floored was false, so it is not overstating at this moment, but the mechanism is real and must be re-checked every time
TVL is two pools and the team headlines the bigger one: supplied TVL $72,067.87, tvlWithCollateral $132,254.61. The "$100,000 TVL" tweets use the second. Founder disclosed the distinction openly to CryptoKemal, so this is framing, not fraud. DEPOSITOR COUNT IS 25
Core USDG vault 0x026df18fbd2A7639089D0a16293383ec687A5Ca1 is UNVERIFIED on Blockscout and its page-1 USDG inflows are two addresses only: $15,385.73 from contract 0xDA803813Cd8424e4643c7C912b98A6021616bd02 and $12,155.58 from EOA 0x69C3eaDC15Cb2b505193D94e041299cA885A7DA9, which GoPlus names as the BOW token creator. The deployer funds roughly half the flagship vault. Do not deposit into Longbow vaults; buying the token is a different risk
REVENUE PRICED. Cumulative USDG into StakingRewards 0xEba502e1177f5fad9432c2deb273569D8381e01A since 11 Aug is $2,457.67. Recent 5-day average $310.42/day, annualising to about $113,300, a 1.5% cash yield on a $7.54M cap. Lending revenue is separately trivial: performanceFee is 0.10 on both vaults, $20,333 borrowed at a generous 8% blended is $1,627 of interest, protocol take $163/yr. So 695 to 1, almost all of BOW's revenue is a tax on trading BOW, not on lending. The 7.37% staking APR is a function of the volume spike, not the loan book
CHAIN CONTEXT 31 Aug: Robinhood Chain TVL $725,044,478, +22.2% 7d, +93.9% 30d. DEX volume 24h $1,402,529,587, +183% 7d, +287% 30d. Chain fees 24h $12,081,622, 30d $100,039,747. Pons V2 alone takes $4,683,255 of fees on $88,141,533 of volume, a 5.31% blended take rate, which is the fee band BOW's deepest pairs trade in. Chain TVL is rented: Merkl shows two live incentive campaigns, Steakhouse at $419,478,944 and USDe/USD at $320,185,027, which is essentially the whole chain
NEW COMPETITORS, all launched 30 Aug, lending narrative fragmenting on RH chain: DENAR 0x3786728a2c49c4617bf4fe5bd82b90b6b0df5508 at $1.94M mcap and $3,456,176 of 24h volume, which already OUT-TRADES BOW; SYNDROMICS 0xe33ab021662e23f745be8e5b237babe8c7ad626c at $262,164, being pushed by Chinese CT as the decentralised P2P alternative to BOW's "centralised treasury"; POURED 0xd9a5bf0e38b1ebfcafd5356e2cb0209714557246 at $199,486. ARROW 0xf2915d1e3C1B0c769d0c756Ec43F1c1f6c99cD03 now $8,466,812 mcap with $5,492,808 liquidity, 12.7x BOW's depth
SLOT OWNERSHIP: #1 on attention in RH-chain lending (CryptoKemal 625,078 followers published a research thread 30 Aug, DaxMainCrypto 255,169 and biggalordTE 229,905 posted 28 Aug, 16 unique authors in a 2-hour window versus ARROW's 6 over 5 days). Roughly #5 structurally by USDG borrowed on the chain: Morpho Blue $414.66M, Accountable $499,849, Native Credit Pool $319,338, TermMax $75,541, Longbow $20,333. Tier-one CT coverage is still ZERO across blknoiz06, theunipcs, pingucharts, CrashiusClay69, 0xkioto, _0xghost_, metaversejoji and dontbuytops
Phishing campaign escalated, not resolved: 10-plus template accounts pushing "claim portal", "holder portal" and "eligibility check" with the correct CA in the 12 hours to 31 Aug 08:00, plus a separate "listing vote" bot farm (zcalliance1, MjakeG, cheeleong1977, peteyrach, annisapt_, thenofirst, ashok13645, eastsolri, althea4p, shadesolj)
Founder is George @giskandzc, doxxed by handle, answers critics publicly and in detail under his own name including a point-by-point reply to CryptoKemal on TVL accounting, staking and the LP lock. Ship cadence is genuinely high: 7 new markets announced in 4 days, though every one of them landed enabled:false with $200 of seed
VERDICT DELIVERED: Starter tier, 33%, but capped by exit depth to about $5,000 rather than Ben's normal $10k to $25k. Round trip is roughly 10% at $10,000 across the three real pools before the Pons fee. Frames: fundamental anchor $750,000 to $7.3M chain-adjusted (global lending anchor is $23,000 to $45,000), live-product floor $1.7M to $12M, narrative ceiling $25M to $37M and resolved as NARRATIVE not backed because INDEX at $29.9M and STONKBROKER at $37.5M carry that tier on no TVL

RE-RUN 09:25 UTC 31 Aug with the amended skills. THREE CORRECTIONS TO THE 09:05 RUN, all mine:
(1) THE BIG ONE. I annualised staker revenue at $113,300/yr from a trailing 5-day average of USDG deposits. That was a volume-spike extrapolation. The CONTRACTED forward rate read straight off the contract is rewardRate() = 0.001268 USDG/sec = $109.56/day = **$39,988/yr**, periodFinish 2026-09-05 04:12 UTC. That is 2.8x lower and it is the honest number. Holder yield is 0.52% of market cap per year, not 1.5%. Lesson: always read rewardRate() and periodFinish, never extrapolate the deposit tape
(2) Market counts are a LIVE counter, not a static fact. At 09:01 UTC /api/markets read 24 enabled / 26 disabled with 24 markets holding exactly $200 of seed. At 09:25 UTC it read 30 enabled / 20 disabled with 15 seed-only. The team enabled six markets inside 25 minutes. Re-pull immediately before delivering, and state the timestamp
(3) I quoted exit depth off DexScreener reported liquidity. Measured quote-side is $277,250: Ramses v3 pool `0x95D1b62891531b9207aD9C79a021bDf6BE452920` verified by balanceOf at $42,988.30 USDG, Uniswap v4 USDG pairs reported 112,365 + 4,676 USDG, Uniswap v4 SPY pair 149.4846 SPY at $769.92 = $115,081 (needs a second hop, SPY pool depth $1,098,088), up WETH pool 0.8764 WETH. So $10,000 is about 3.6% one way, not 4.9%, and $8,000 to $10,000 is a workable size, not $5,000
CONTRACT-LEVEL FACTS ADDED THIS RUN. Direct bytecode selector scan of the 3,248-byte token: mint 40c10f19, pause 8456cb59, owner 8da5cb5b, transferOwnership f2fde38b, blacklist f9f92be4, setFee 69fe0e2d and setMaxWallet 5d0044ca are ALL ABSENT. Token is clean at the bytecode level, not just per GoPlus
StakingRewards owner() is a plain EOA `0x1bf704707e9F3f407EbC9364fDAeD08C39893770` with no timelock, so the reward rate is a policy one key can change. Core USDG vault `0x026df18fbd2A7639089D0a16293383ec687A5Ca1` is unverified and NOT a standard MetaMorpho vault: fee(), curator(), guardian(), timelock() and MAX_FEE() all revert; owner() returns unverified contract `0x396ae0bd5623c3750e15fd222770f1e972153ed4`; totalAssets() = $25,079.07. Founder's "deposits sit in Morpho contracts we cannot touch" is true of the isolated markets and NOT of this wrapper. Holder risk survivable, depositor risk real, keep the two separate
Founder claim "140 reward claims to 71 wallets" CONFIRMED and now 148 claim-outs to 76 distinct wallets, swept from the StakingRewards token-transfer ledger. Cumulative USDG in $2,513.77 since 9 Aug
Deployer `0x69C3eaDC15Cb2b505193D94e041299cA885A7DA9` probed cross-chain: nonce 0 and zero balance on Ethereum, Base and Arbitrum. Chain-native operator with no mainnet history
Impostor `0x9fb101579e716B2571aB069c2718cd06b69ffdD7` still live at $9,944 mcap, $9,739.90 liquidity, $532.95 of 24h volume. Trivial, not narrative migration. Real CA is uncontested in X search
SWITCHING COST IS ZERO. Longbow vaults have no time lock and no exit penalty; withdrawals are gated only by market utilisation, which the founder confirmed publicly. The category slot is defended by brand, not structure. Lead, not moat

BENCHMARKING RUN 09:36 UTC 31 Aug, Ben asked for the full multiples piece. Snapshot: price $0.007199, mcap $7,199,455, agg liq $444,245, agg vol24 $3,341,845, tvlWithCollateral $136,225.83, supplied $72,067.88, borrowed $20,341.02, depositors 25, h1 buys/sells 327/330 (flipped negative for the first time this session)
CATEGORY WAS WRONG IN EVERY PRIOR RUN INCLUDING MINE. Longbow is not "Lending" on DefiLlama's taxonomy, it is a **RISK CURATOR**, the same category as Steakhouse Financial and Gauntlet. Classify it that way from now on
**THE FINDING: of 61 Risk Curators worldwide, exactly ONE has a token, and it is Api3, an oracle project miscategorised.** Steakhouse Financial $3,003,718,530 global TVL no token. Sentora $2,435,290,272 no token. Gauntlet $1,497,320,608 no token. K3 Capital $442,029,057, Hyperithm $222,050,799, Clearstar $207,973,134, RockawayX $202,296,923, KPK $199,681,781, Telos Consilium $140,018,359, Armitage by Wintermute $117,913,309, Re7 Labs $83,112,077, Gami Labs $56,195,322 (also on RH chain): NONE have tokens. The category has never produced one. Same shape as the DELTA liquidity-manager finding and the PFWA prediction-market finding
Direct same-chain curator comp: **Steakhouse Financial holds $474,991,394 on Robinhood Chain against Longbow's $136,226, a 3,487x gap, and Steakhouse has no token**
LENDING SECTOR ON RH CHAIN IS ECONOMICALLY DEAD, re-verified fresh 31 Aug: total 30d protocol revenue across every Lending, CDP, RWA and Uncollateralised protocol = **$73.15**, all of it Accountable. Morpho Blue $0.00 (on $1,046,932 of 30d fees), Steakhouse Financial $0.00 (on $920,859 of fees), Native Credit Pool $0.00, Midas RWA $0.00. Longbow is not listed by DefiLlama at all. Against roughly $995M of lending TVL on the chain
**THE FLYWHEEL IS A PERSON, NOT A CONTRACT.** Swept every USDG sender into StakingRewards: **$2,442.76 of the $2,513.77 lifetime total, 97.2%, came from one EOA, the token deployer 0x69C3eaDC15Cb2b505193D94e041299cA885A7DA9, by hand.** There is no fee router contract anywhere in the path. "Protocol fees streamed per second to stakers" is a manual discretionary transfer from a single key that also owns nothing else in the stack. This is the most important structural fact about BOW and it was missed in both earlier runs today
That same EOA is the protocol's operational hot wallet: $121,878.61 USDG in and $121,876.61 out lifetime, cycling through UniversalRouter 0x8876789976dEcBfCbBbe364623C63652db8C0904, DexAggregator 0x20F6ee51340aDEed01A59B0e65cB3703f3dc860c, Morpho 0x9D53d5E3bd5E8d4Cbfa6DB1ca238AEA02E651010 and both vaults. It has sent $62,041.78 into the two Longbow vaults and pulled $46,469.78 back, so **about $15,572 net of team capital sits in a $58,234.71 vault, 26.7% of it**
Resolved a $31,612.40 outflow that looked like an exit: destination 0x65dC90cd3a0BCDE967c8AE6019d6790b616E78F7 is an unverified contract holding exactly 1,757.63 USDG, which matches /api/stats idleUsdg exactly. It is Longbow's idle-liquidity allocator. Benign, not extraction
THE MULTIPLES, all computed fresh 31 Aug, none recalled. **BOW MC/TVL 52.8x** on tvlWithCollateral, 99.9x on supplied. **BOW cap/annual-revenue-to-holders 180x** ($39,988/yr contracted). Robinhood Chain MC/TVL band: up v3 1.92x, PROLOGUE 3.41x, WTH 16.9x, DELTA 17.3x, STONKBROKER 37.2x, BOW 52.8x, HOOKR 78.6x, TWO 234x. Robinhood Chain cap/ann-rev band: STONKBROKER 1.77x trailing, up v3 1.82x, PONS 3.88x, INDEX 8.18x, CASHCAT 42.3x, DELTA 106x, **BOW 180x, the most expensive token on the chain per dollar reaching holders**
Global lending-token MC/TVL, computed by pairing CoinGecko caps to DefiLlama protocol TVL: DOLO 0.041x ($13,376,346 / $326,794,478), XVS 0.042x, EUL 0.080x ($30,101,576 / $376,063,335), KMNO 0.108x ($134,467,608 / $1,243,729,696), AAVE 0.109x ($1,911,849,457 / $17,516,957,023 V3+V4), COMP 0.137x, MORPHO 0.176x ($1,677,105,780 / $9,514,178,549), SKY 0.294x, cap 0.336x. **Median 0.123x. BOW at 52.8x is 429x the global lending median**
PONS refreshed and it EXACTLY matches the prior note, so that number is solid: mcap $245,936,532, 30d revenue Pons V2 $3,268,653 + Pons V1 $1,935,063 = $5,203,716, annualised $63,323,637, cap/ann-rev 3.88x, 30d fees $26,530,008
STONKBROKER trailing multiple is a trap: 30d revenue $1,812,200 gives 1.77x, but 24h revenue is $6,756, so the live run rate is $2,465,940/yr and the real multiple is 15.9x. Always check 24h against 30d before quoting a launchpad multiple
METHOD NOTE for the comp table: DexScreener tokens/v1/{chain}/{addrs} returns only ONE pair per token, so its liquidity and volume columns are single-pair, not aggregate. Use it for market cap only; use /latest/dex/tokens/{ca} for aggregates. Also, mcap across pairs of the same token ranged from $3,649 to $238,002,673 for INDEX and to 1.6e45 for NET, because equity-quoted pools price in garbage. Always take the mcap from the highest-VOLUME pair and sanity-check against a USDG-quoted one

SELLER ANALYSIS 2 Sep 2026 09:25:29 UTC (chain head 52466201). Ben pasted the CA asking for the same seller forensics run on TWO.
**SOURCE FAILURE, name it: the Dune datapoint limit for the billing cycle is EXHAUSTED** ("This api request would exceed your configured datapoint limit per billing cycle"). BOW has far more transfer legs than TWO (PoolManager alone 129,713) and the first attempt also hit FAILED_TYPE_RESOURCES_CAP_REACHED. Whole run was done on Blockscout holders + per-address tokentx + direct RPC. **Consequence: no full-population seller sweep and no exact realised proceeds. The list below is top-50 holders plus the full staking ledger, not every seller on the chain.**
Market: price $0.005673, mcap $5,673,377, agg liq $426,060 across 13 pairs, vol24 $2,641,141, buys/sells h24 6,418/4,898, h1 -9.17%, h24 -22.56%. **Holders 5,782, up from 4,557 on 31 Aug (+26.9% in 2 days).**

## Supply structure: 22.3% of supply cannot sell
- **StakingRewards 0xEba502e1177f5fad9432c2deb273569D8381e01A holds 141,765,296 BOW = 14.18% of supply = $804,235.** `totalSupply()` on the contract matches its token balance exactly, so no accounting gap. **Per-user accessor is the standard Synthetix `balanceOf(address)`, NOT `staked()`** (staked and balances both revert). rewardsToken 0x5fc5360d0400a0fd4f2af552add042d716f1d168, rewardsDuration 604800, owner still the bare EOA 0x1bf704707e9F3f407EbC9364fDAeD08C39893770. **periodFinish 1788858349 = ~4 Sep 2026 09:05 UTC, so the reward period expires in under 2 days and that is the live dated catalyst.**
- **V2LaunchLocker 0x267444D099b10fB5Ed7c3Cc7B7c767AdcA574952 holds 81,632,653 BOW = 8.16% = $463,100, and its verified ABI contains NO function that can move an ERC-20 out.** Full set: acceptOwnership, factory, isLocked, lockPosition, lockTokenSupply, lockedPositions, lockedTokenSupply, onERC721Received, owner, pendingOwner, positionManager, renounceOwnership, setFactory, transferOwnership. **No withdraw, release, unlock, sweep or transfer. That 8.16% is structurally immobile, effectively burned.** This is a real positive that no aggregator shows.
- **Most top-30 "contract" holders are ERC-7760 proxies of `TradingVaultImplementation` 0xe5A320aC6a685E3ef7076E34d968984CB1896c04, all created by 0xdeF00000cc0a125ba7962e8113d3B69786851736.** These are Pons/Robinhood user trading vaults, i.e. retail positions in a wrapper, not infrastructure and not one entity. Do not read them as whales.

## THE SELLERS. Only two are live today.
| wallet | acquired | sold | sold% | left now | $ | last sell UTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xA549B76AeD081AEC46D44aF0850a822789128eDE | 65,585,514 | 51,968,915 | **79%** | 13,874,905 | $78,712 | **09-02 08:44** |
| 0x60eE565347D0415916DdE17bEda4CFA8c2E43D81 | 21,348,004 | 13,589,067 | **64%** | 7,758,937 | $44,016 | **09-02 08:31** |
| 0xD929fCE80152e986088aF291B582890a6C6bC619 | 12,250,642 | 6,624,413 | 54% | 5,626,228 | $31,918 | 09-01 14:59 |
| 0xB24b409b17AeF74Ca36DC25aA03C1ece578A439C | 16,119,516 | 5,342,508 | 33% | 10,777,008 | $61,138 | 09-01 15:10 |
- **0xA549B76AeD081AEC46D44aF0850a822789128eDE is an EIP-7702 delegated EOA**, code `0xef0100e6cae83bde06e4c305530e199d7217f42808555b` delegating to 0xe6cAE83bDe06e4c305530e199d7217f42808555b. 194 legs, first inbound 2026-08-20 06:14:53, accumulated 13.4M in the first 18 minutes. **Biggest active distributor on the token. Note it BOUGHT ~147k back between the holders snapshot and the live read, so it is two-way, not a pure exit.**
- 0xB24b409b17AeF74Ca36DC25aA03C1ece578A439C fell 11,842,866 -> 10,777,008 inside the same few minutes, so it is selling live despite a last-sell stamp of 01 Sep.
- **Zero of these four has anything staked.** All four positions are 100% liquid and sellable now.
- **Combined remaining across the four distributors: 38,037,078 BOW = $215,784.**

## The big holders who have NEVER sold a single token
0x0a6EBEd0155EDB4b21D92AD02897A626CD90119E 25,512,616 ($144,733) · 0x448479536078083D407A37F03863349d4e124268 23,526,143 ($133,468) · 0x6B834041FaCf615FCfaE4F78eF42b0bfA9CB1Cee 13,475,010 ($76,444) · 0x3051a932270b95800b273e59f2525D6bF442Ad82 10,120,308 ($57,412) · 0xAE66fC5074280511A088a6aE5735c60d829D15aE 10,018,439 ($56,835) · 0x410dDf68cF002b507e91d006E143eD57623132FF 8,941,293 · 0xF715C0B46B5c974f46B822F5c00B15a7F235Ea9B 8,243,545 · 0x19A31a37e4D7Bd7C468ca583e8A3eE0E957ad467 6,822,300 · 0x8Fc9F952a56F2BafEeaA8b03B3F9cE6eE263cDA8 6,713,398.
Top net stakers (from the 500-leg StakingRewards ledger, 162 addresses, 140,798,879 BOW net): 0x01fd26f6a0b2f25f5f46ebd027a10bf9efdf5527 29,000,000 · 0x4b9aa8bc956ffe79b91bb80a3d601545bb4ca7af 23,928,597 · 0x711281c1b26aaed86e40e4caaf76c1962b45e161 10,360,864 · 0xfca78e50737bc30274a567446a363fb8e5b9814a 10,000,000 · 0x5a8494d8df8abff6ee78e6cc08bdfe49f8483c3a 10,000,000 · 0x97739126a807d374579c6e761eff133ef04747b6 10,000,000.

## UNRESOLVED, state it rather than guessing
- **Cost basis for the two live sellers could not be established.** Quote-token detection returned $0 because the paying leg is the router or the 7702 delegate, not the wallet. Without Dune this needs per-tx receipt decoding across 194 and 62 legs.
- **GeckoTerminal daily OHLCV on the deepest v4 pool 0xdba909ac1600a59685928cf317fb953d518d405b4748371889e3cb2932adf4c2 returns ~775 per BOW**, a garbage unit. This is the known BOW/SPY pricing trap already recorded above, now confirmed to affect the OHLCV endpoint too, not just the price field. **Use a USDG-quoted pool for any BOW series.**
- Several top holders returned 0 tokentx legs from Blockscout while holding 5M to 10M BOW (0xd0e0Cad56b10c399b5e62B9155DeB781FFb8c1d6, 0xC0603f5cca3d74bC8049614F8089C5A165C3160E, 0x7C242C29ac801d2442621A319B4c508fd98D9B32). Indexer gap, not a finding. Re-pull before calling them anything.

SELLER ANALYSIS RE-RUN 2 Sep 2026 09:39:28 UTC (chain head 52474523), Ben upgraded the Dune tier. Full population this time, 300 addresses classified by code and balance.
**Dune note: `performance:"large"` is rejected as "Invalid performance tier" on the new plan. Use `"medium"`.**
Market: price $0.005689, mcap $5,689,197, agg liq $430,293 across 13 pairs, vol24 $2,636,013, buys/sells h24 6,429/4,895, h1 -3.46%, h24 -17.37%.

## CORRECTION TO THE 09:25 RUN, AND IT IS THE SAME ERROR I WROTE INTO onchain-forensics THIS MORNING
I counted every outbound transfer as a sale again. Two of the three names I gave Ben were **transferring, not selling**:
- **0x97739126a807d374579c6e761eff133ef04747b6** sent **41,219,344 BOW to 0x3401fcbcee77f30502ff156a29af2c6792967a08** (an 83-byte contract holding zero BOW) in 3 legs 18 to 21 Aug, plus 10,000,000 to StakingRewards. Its real venue-sold is **9,065,805**, to the PoolManager on 12 Aug only. Reported as "83% sold". It has not touched a venue since 21 Aug.
- **0xfca78e50737bc30274a567446a363fb8e5b9814a** sent 13,918,224 to EOA 0x7c31fb4e44a90850570679decfb5aba339f045f3 and 13,918,224 to EOA 0x6141d9f51685221f955ff8670fb478e389434ced, both holding zero BOW, plus 11,269,349 staked. Reported as "75% sold". Nearly all of it was wallet-to-wallet.
- **0xA549B76AeD081AEC46D44aF0850a822789128eDE survives the correction**: all 51,666,993 across 71 legs went to router 0xb92fe925dc43a0ecde6c8b1a2709c170ec4fff4f (4,721-byte contract, 47,704 legs, net zero). Real seller.
**FIX, now the standing definition: a SELL is a transfer to a member of a verified swap-venue set. Build that set as {addresses with net flow ~0, >300 legs and an empty balance} plus the known pools, then count only transfers into it. Everything else is a transfer between principals and must not be counted.** On BOW that set is 34 routers plus PoolManager 0x8366a39cc670b4001a1121b8f6a443a643e40951 and Ramses v3 0x95D1b62891531b9207aD9C79a021bDf6BE452920.

## CORRECTED RESULT: 16 wallets in distribution, 49,875,442 BOW = $283,991 = 4.99% of supply
Liquid and sellable now **39,875,442 BOW ($227,051)**; staked **10,000,000 ($56,940)**.
**283 wallets are FINISHED: they dumped 6,926,643,620 BOW into venues and hold 40,272 BOW ($229) between them.**
All 300 tracked wallets sold **41,619,069 BOW ($236,979) in 24h** and **11,148,485 ($63,479) in the last 6h**.
ACTIVELY SELLING, sold again in 24h, 8 wallets, 24,307,302 BOW, $138,406:
| wallet | kind | acquired | sold | % | 24h | 6h | left | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa549b76aed081aec46d44af0850a822789128ede | 7702 | 65,606,900 | 51,666,993 | 79% | 2,593,515 | 192,081 | 13,876,694 | $79,014 |
| 0x60ee565347d0415916dde17beda4cfa8c2e43d81 | EOA | 21,348,004 | 13,550,078 | 63% | 78,568 | 78,568 | 7,758,937 | $44,179 |
| 0x2d86499a410a9ac2139833ba8d6942b8a8700a7b | EOA | 30,085,900 | 28,968,004 | 96% | 256,285 | 0 | 1,117,896 | $6,365 |
| 0x48a097df16c7844a33b1c3d11ab353457846e13f | CTR | 168,375,783 | 96,080,469 | 57% | 510,228 | 265,032 | 812,630 | $4,627 |
| 0x7041e5bde8f5196c375242fb663c104a1aa6de31 | CTR | 50,154,139 | 37,283,710 | 74% | 3,525,060 | 870,383 | 294,169 | $1,675 |
| 0x99c1903ff0dcf0070dc9eb156b40762b3f28ec7e | EOA | 11,281,702 | 10,568,471 | 94% | 46,000 | 0 | 259,875 | $1,480 |
| 0x640d32f8f03f3b670974d60e8c745ab362135b81 | EOA | 19,652,191 | 19,528,519 | 99% | 804,360 | 0 | 123,672 | $704 |
| 0xdee8100533a49df32c61ab67c1af492de6260c27 | EOA | 12,966,745 | 12,896,268 | 99% | 11,952 | 7,831 | 63,430 | $361 |
PAUSED MID-EXIT, 8 wallets, 25,568,140 BOW, $145,585: 0x97739126a807d374579c6e761eff133ef04747b6 10,000,000 staked ($56,940, last venue sell 21 Aug) · 0xc04e66c9ae72a4848aa8d7f78f52ac4310a0dadf 4,848,148 ($27,605) · 0xe46f99935c755a7fa835bb8c054d901705af18be 3,494,853 ($19,900) · 0xdae46d850edf73071668bc72fdb7faa912637fad 3,129,744 ($17,821) · 0x84e75c23e1b6c7afeb50c9c40d85ca8beb6a6442 1,817,461 ($10,349) · 0x2977b96b4235330075165ca5e3b0ef563745c354 1,413,905 ($8,051) · 0xf78cfd40bc52c51d1e8d0c28623125513d11afde 769,036 ($4,379) · 0x4792b63fa967477f39c7ea084cef9e6002f2e24d 94,992 ($541).

## REALISED P&L, native ETH legs joined to their own BOW txs
| wallet | cost | proceeds | multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5bc206a463bd0b6c7131a571e0719faa3e9b7bcb | 1.0267 ETH ($2,483) | 10.8269 ETH ($26,182) | **10.5x** |
| 0xc04e66c9ae72a4848aa8d7f78f52ac4310a0dadf | 2.6892 ETH ($6,503) | 12.6896 ETH ($30,686) | 4.7x |
| 0x2d86499a410a9ac2139833ba8d6942b8a8700a7b | 3.6500 ETH ($8,826) | 15.0611 ETH ($36,421) | 4.1x |
| 0x84e75c23e1b6c7afeb50c9c40d85ca8beb6a6442 | 2.5701 ETH ($6,215) | 8.6156 ETH ($20,834) | 3.4x |
| 0x2977b96b4235330075165ca5e3b0ef563745c354 | 1.8500 ETH ($4,474) | 6.0643 ETH ($14,665) | 3.3x |
| 0x60ee565347d0415916dde17beda4cfa8c2e43d81 | 2.5740 ETH ($6,224) | 5.3597 ETH ($12,961) | 2.1x |
**Nobody here is a 50x launch sniper. The band is 2x to 10x, so these are ordinary swing traders, and unlike the TWO cohort they still have a loss point. That makes them shakeable in both directions, not price-insensitive.**

## WHAT 0xa549b76aed081aec46d44af0850a822789128ede ACTUALLY IS
Not a BOW holder distributing. It receives **dozens of different Robinhood-chain memecoins in 50M to 140M lots**: 0x92663c3b9f7a27d736a67fd10df5416c5dd5625a 139.5M, 0x45603e50c0f59210bdbeda29eadad4d8dcb15aac 119.9M, 0xa934ba4f59070149d37a93f8a002af79bae35563 117.9M, 0x8ad18d2fc5108d0dcc7c9b14f88083abdc4a666c 113.4M, 0x9de83d01bc3d0857435529d931679ba5dc31ddf4 106.0M, and more, all since 22 Aug. **It is a high-frequency memecoin rotator and BOW is one line in a book of dozens.** Its sells are submitted by ERC-4337 bundlers (tx.origin 0x4337ab4ff1ae249f0fb4bed59662f20ee1764983 and 0x4337003fcd2f56de3977ccb806383e9161628d0e into EntryPoint 0x4337084d9e255ff0702461cf8895ce9e3b5ff108), so it is a Robinhood app smart account. **Its BOW selling is portfolio rotation, not a verdict on Longbow.**
**Still unresolved: its BOW proceeds land on no address in the same tx, neither as an ERC-20 leg nor as a native trace to itself. Where the money goes is genuinely unknown and should be stated as unknown.**