---
name: screen-log-outcomes-2
description: Continuation of [[screen-log-outcomes]] from 3 Sep 2026, after that file hit the 32KB cap. Daily scoring of every open row in [[screen-log]] and [[screen-log-2]] — multiples, falsifier checks, corrections. FULL at 4 Sep; 5 Sep onward goes in screen-log-outcomes-3.
sources: [cowork]
aliases: [outcome-updates-2, scoring-log-2]
---

# Screen log outcomes, part 2 (from 3 Sep 2026)

Rules, dead thresholds and the 1 to 2 Sep runs are in [[screen-log-outcomes]]. Same method: DexScreener tokens endpoint with a browser UA, base-token pairs only, liq and vol summed, marketCap from the highest-liquidity pair.

---

## 3 Sep 2026, day 3 for the eight 31 Aug rows, day 2 for RIPE, day 1 for the two 2 Sep multi-token rows

Sources: DexScreener; RH RPC `https://robinhood-rpc.publicnode.com`; HyperEVM `https://rpc.hyperliquid.xyz/evm`; Base `https://mainnet.base.org`; DefiLlama fees; Dune query 8562361 run three times.

| Ticker | mc_screen | mc_now | multiple | max_mc_since | liq | vol24 | alive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCL | $287,730 | $32,114 | **0.11x** | $287,730 | $19,081 | $23,630 | yes |
| BOW | $7,747,316 | $5,129,768 | 0.66x | $7,747,316 | $407,982 | $1,624,760 | yes |
| DICE | $778,508 | $321,764 | 0.41x | $778,508 | $66,076 | $192,688 | yes |
| BACKED | $1,053,287 | $739,407 | 0.70x | $1,288,548 | $157,984 | $223,176 | yes |
| RAM hub, 2nd pass (FDV) | $28,023,821 | $32,553,054 | 1.16x | $44,507,209 | $1,373,738 | $1,974,882 | yes |
| RAM hub, 4th pass (FDV) | $27,159,358 | $32,553,054 | 1.20x | $44,507,209 | $1,373,738 | $1,974,882 | yes |
| ARC | $342,605 | $25,331 | **0.074x** | $546,291 | $14,433 | $51,437 | yes |
| RIPE (cross-chain minted x price) | $48,300,000 | $27,398,313 | **0.57x** | $115,472,589 | $237,445 | $1,584,014 | yes |
| PONS (day 1) | $275,600,000 | $330,291,101 | 1.20x | $330,291,101 | $13,740,134 | $78,728,900 | yes |
| PAIR (day 1) | $4,900,000 | $4,524,230 | 0.92x | $4,900,000 | $609,430 | $2,980,406 | yes |
| SLVR (day 1) | $2,984,003 | $2,395,355 | 0.80x | $2,984,003 | $217,887 | $700,975 | yes |
| RVH (day 1) | $1,040,000 | $641,668 | 0.62x | $1,040,000 | $172,299 | $563,124 | yes |
| O (day 1) | $87,300,000 | $87,437,150 | 1.00x | $87,437,150 | $2,187,187 | $981,073 | yes |
| RAM satellite, auth row | see note | $10,807,434 | not scored | n/a | $838,499 | $8,152,650 | yes |

No row is dead (SCL liq 3.8x the $5,000 floor, ARC 2.9x). No 7d, 30d or 90d mark is due. **0 closed rows.**

### FALSIFIER FIRED: BOW number 3, the rewritten aggregate test
`0x451b42A15100C340CA12F7c66DE06fac5EA2D751`. **Disabled markets hold 95.01% of all borrowing against the 75% threshold. FIRED 3 Sep 2026; the number that fired it is 95.01%.**
- www.longbow.cash/api/markets, 53 markets, total borrow $266,042.49. Disabled markets 23 of 53, holding **$252,768.60**
- **WSNET-NN `0xaa586d26a6fe62d9c0f0948fede6e2130500ac7a655587447e2d4a37e6330589` alone is $199,043.77 = 74.82% of all protocol borrowing, `enabled:false`, `isMemeMarket:true`, and its stated cap is 2,000 USDG. A 99.5x breach of its own cap on a disabled market**
- PONS `0xaba3ac501ce4c6b80c08ed0dba19e1ac0de495f17af3ed692a38e92d176a6c9e` $51,770.15 = 19.46%, still `enabled:false`
- every enabled market combined: CASHCAT_LEGACY $7,816.46 + SPY $4,000.47 + ETH $1,410.08 = **$13,226.01, 4.97% of the book**
- **THE 2 SEP REWRITE IS VINDICATED AND SO IS THE REASON FOR IT.** wsNET went $83,375.95 (58.4%) to $199,043.77 (74.82%) in one day. The original PONS-direction wording would still read clean today at 19.46%
- **THIS KILLS A GROWTH STORY THAT LOOKS EXCELLENT ON THE HEADLINE.** /api/stats: totalSupplied **$590,071.82** (screen $72,067.88 = 8.2x), totalBorrowed **$266,042.49** (screen $20,341.02 = 13.1x), utilisation 76.96%, openInterest $923,694.46 across 217 positions, depositorCount **32** (screen 25). **95% of that 13.1x is one disabled memecoin market breaching its cap 99.5x. Seven net depositors in three days is the real user number**
- falsifier 1 NOT fired, moved the other way again: rewardRate() on `0xEba502e1177f5fad9432c2deb273569D8381e01A` raw 3,064,092,381,749,161,300,668 = 0.003064 USDG/sec = $264.73/day = $96,626/yr, unchanged from 2 Sep and 2.42x the screen figure. periodFinish 1788858349 = **8 Sep 2026 09:05 UTC**. Holder yield 1.89% of market cap per year at the lower cap
- falsifier 2 not due until 21 Sep. **Two of the three FULL-upgrade legs are now met**: totalBorrowed $266,042 clears $50,000, PONS is at 19.46% versus the under-40% requirement. depositorCount 32 versus 100 is the only leg missing

### FALSIFIER RESOLVED PERMANENTLY, AGAINST FIRING: RAM number 3
- **r33 `0x4e5195469A0360f5dfe811730C9CCaCFF0a0FeeE` burned at 0xdEaD = 1,896,637, clearing the 1,500,000-by-30-Sep threshold 27 days early.** Screen figure 706,656, so +1,189,981 r33 burned in 3 days
- r33 totalSupply fell 13,823,669 to **11,394,156**. Burn share **16.65% of supply**. The Sarcophagus buy-and-burn is real and accelerating; this falsifier can no longer fire
- **RAM burned at 0xdEaD is still exactly 0.0, re-confirmed on chain.** The r33 holder is the beneficiary of the buyback, not the RAM holder. Four passes, three days, unchanged

### RAM, hub `0x555570a286F15EbDFE42B66eDE2f724Aa1AB5555`
- FDV $27,159,358 (4th pass screen) to $32,553,054 = **1.20x**, down from 1.64x at day 2. Price $0.1146 to $0.1376 = 1.201x, matching the FDV ratio, so the multiple is real
- **BASIS WARNING REPEATED: DexScreener's hub marketCap field now equals fdv ($32,553,054 = 238.2M x $0.1376). Read against the mc_screen circulating figure of $5,945,606 it gives a false 5.48x. Score on FDV, as set 2 Sep**
- h24 -26.69%, h1 buys/sells 3/13, liq $1,373,738, vol24 $1,974,882 (was $4,402,207)
- **THE DECIDING MEASUREMENT WAS FINALLY RUN, AFTER TWO DEFERRALS, AND IT CONFIRMS THE FOURTH PASS.** Balances read direct off the HyperEVM RPC:
  - xRAM vault `0xae6d5fce541216bda471d311425b5412d9f1deb9` holds **159,276,636.79 RAM**, down from 183,052,536 at screen. **-23,775,899 RAM redeemed out of the vault in three days, 13.0% drained.** The 106:1 OUT inversion of 31 Aug was not a one-day event
  - LayerZero lockbox `0xe1c39b767e968a57af2ecad2f5b09ee2e7874d9f` holds **50,960,459.72 RAM**, up from 11,436,756 = **+39,523,703 bridged to Robinhood Chain, a 4.46x rise in satellite supply**
  - deployer `0x20d630cf1f5628285bfb91dfac8c89eb9087be1a` holds **14,413,563.64 RAM**, down from 15,597,022 = **-1,183,458.** Still distributing, same direction as the pre-announcement bridging caught at screen
- **CORRECTION TO THE THIRD AND FOURTH PASSES: the "emission ratio 0x" finding is now FALSE.** totalSupply reads **238,222,456.13** against 236,934,876.17758635 recorded as IDENTICAL at 7d/14d/30d/60d. **+1,287,580 RAM in three days = 0.54%, roughly 66% annualised.** The number that misled: a supply figure flat for 60 days was treated as structurally fixed rather than as a fact about the past. Emissions restarted with the price
- free float re-derived: totalSupply 238.22M minus vault 159.28M minus deployer 14.41M = **64.53M RAM across both chains, $8.88M at $0.1376**, up from ~38.7M at screen. **Float grew 67% in three days: the overhang converting to supply exactly as the coverage gate said it would**
- falsifier 4 (circulating above 80M) NOT fired at 64.53M, but it covered 67% of the distance in three days and fires on this slope inside a week
- falsifier 1 (chain DEX fees under $6M/day) not fired: RH chain total24h fees $18,213,014. Falsifier 2 (Ramses RH fees under $30k/day) not fired: DefiLlama Ramses CL V2 fees24h **$103,595**, DLMM $25,522, Legacy V2 $913
- Ramses share of chain fees **0.71%** ($130,030 of $18,213,014), down from the 1.913% peak that fired the second pass's buy trigger on 1 Sep. **The 1.5% share leg has UN-FIRED.** The price leg ($0.04 to $0.06) was never met
- **the NO is catching up: 1.64x behind at day 2, 1.20x at day 3, with the supply gate now measured rather than asserted**

### RIPE `0x4D3f37a965b21aB4122e92Dd41D2693E742c883b` (RH) + `0x2a0a59d6b975828e781ecac125dba40d7ee5ddc0` (Base)
- **THE 2.39x GAP CLOSED AND INVERTED IN 24 HOURS. 0.57x against the SELL at day 2.** Price $10.98 to **$2.60**, h24 **-76.03%** on RH, -77.54% on Base
- cross-chain minted supply re-read on chain: RH `totalSupply()` **299,579.78** (was 289,858.30) + Base **10,238,232.86** (was 10,226,770.92) = **10,537,812.64 RIPE**. Real cap **$27,398,313** at the RH price, the deeper book (RH liq $179,173 vs Base $58,272)
- supply grew +21,183 RIPE in a day while price fell 76%: the emission runs regardless of price
- **REVERSAL TRIGGER 1 STILL NOT FIRED. Endaoment `0x9f20f25f037046721a292b19a486932ef390eaf9` holds 0 RIPE, 0 GREEN, 0 ETH.** Never collected, through a +1482% day and a -76% day
- **REVERSAL TRIGGER 2 REVERSED. GREEN outstanding both chains 742,581.21** (RH `0x355bb7f0f6c730e4460d620420a300fa08ff82f3` 321,171.30 + Base `0xd1eac76497d06cf15475a5e3984d5bc03de7c707` 421,409.91), **down 24.9% from 988,336.25.** The 2 Sep line said "if it holds this slope the trigger clears inside a week". It did not: the loan book contracted with the price. Now 14.9% of the $5M threshold and moving away
- **CORRECTION, THE SECOND OF EXACTLY THIS KIND IN THREE DAYS.** The 2 Sep line called RIPE "the single most useful entry in this file for calibration" at 2.39x behind. It was a one-day print on a token whose cap no aggregator computes, taken at the top of a +1482% candle. **The number that misled: a day-1 multiple measured at a vertical.** ARC did the identical thing 1 to 2 Sep (1.59x then 0.27x). **A multiple taken inside 48 hours of a screen is not evidence in either direction, and this file must stop reporting one as "the widest gap in the book"**
- the SELL is now right, and right for the stated reason: the coverage gate, not the price

### SCL `0xBe92b334E045Bbfd292a28e54f8C75aF2FC07bBE`
- mc $32,114 = **0.11x, the best-performing NO in the book.** h24 -55.04%, h6 +26.73%, liq $19,081, vol24 $23,630
- falsifier 1 fired 31 Aug, uncontradicted in three days. Falsifier 3 (position manager) not due until 30 Sep
- falsifier 2 (holders below 686 while price falls) **UNMEASURED for the third consecutive run.** Blockscout Cloudflare-gated and the RPC Transfer-event fallback proposed on 1 Sep still has not been built. **Build it or retire the leg; three runs of UNMEASURED is a falsifier that does not exist**
- liquidity now 3.8x the $5,000 dead floor, down from 6.2x. On this slope the row closes as dead inside a week

### ARC `0xce845443428867d271929bd739148B85524B536a`
- mc $25,331 = **0.074x**, from a day-1 high of $546,291. h24 -72.46%, h6 -60.30%, liq $14,433, vol24 $51,437 = 3.6x remaining liquidity
- falsifier 2 stays FIRED (2 Sep, $27,567). Falsifiers 1 and 4 not due until 14 and 30 Sep. Falsifier 3 (@ArcLiquidity silent 7 days) not measured, no X call this run
- **the NO is right by 13.5x, and it came from the row whose day-1 print said the verdict was wrong**

### DICE `0x3F9f0b6073Ee8c495Aed96869AF31850fED40FeB`
- mc $321,764 = 0.41x, h24 +25.65% but h1 -7.52% with buys/sells 9/22. liq $66,076, vol24 $192,688
- falsifiers 1 and 2 not due until 21 Sep. Falsifier 3 (new PonsLaunchLocker tranche to `0x4acd2c88a239a924e47fc4995114ca1bb0ca3cad`) not re-measured for a third run

### BACKED `0x7168563B0E70124f0C7c0cF2F13a8D1861BAf4A5`
- mc $739,407 = **0.70x**, a new low. h24 -28.05%, h1 -9.38% with buys/sells 19/11. max_mc_since stays $1,288,548
- totalSupply re-read **944,136,618.46** against 944,145,814 at screen. **Only 9,196 BACKED redeemed and burned in three days: redemption has effectively stopped**, consistent with price still ~6x the redeemable floor
- falsifier 1 NOT fired: main pool `0x537217eb9534d5d606bff54f8b807df65ce48678877ee3151f92f26bb94c1243` vol24 **$167,672.42**, 3.4x the $50,000/day threshold. At the 3% tax that is roughly $5,030 added to the vault today, against $12,300 and $31,100 on the two prior days. **Three consecutive halvings of reserve growth is the leading edge of this falsifier**
- **FALSIFIER 3, DAY 3 OF 14.** DENAR `0x3786728a2c49C4617Bf4FE5BD82b90B6B0dF5508` mc $921,439, liq $106,545, vol24 $722,435 versus BACKED $739,407. **DENAR still above; gap narrowed from 1.71x to 1.25x.** Counter continues, reset only when BACKED is back on top. DENAR totalSupply 1,000,000,000, no burn
- falsifier 2 (reserve NAV under $250,000 on 30 Sep) not due. **Reserve NOT re-measurable: StockVault `0x49ef9869FC358B6E755C722Ea8514A574bd8ce8E` holds 0.003759 ETH and the seven stock-token contract addresses are recorded nowhere in memory, so balanceOf could not be called, and the vault exposes no enumerable stock list under the guessed selectors. Record those seven addresses next time BACKED is opened or this falsifier is unmeasurable on 30 Sep**

### First scoring of the two 2 Sep multi-token rows
- **PONS `0x39dbed3a2bd333467115de45665cc57f813c4571` 1.20x at day 1**, mc $330,291,101 from $275.6M. DefiLlama dailyRevenue: 30 Aug $1,011,045 · 31 Aug $974,030 · 1 Sep $909,887 · **2 Sep $1,063,316**. Falsifier 1 (rev under $500k for 3 straight days) nowhere near. Run-rate cap/rev **0.85x**, still the cheapest thing in its sector on the screen's own comp (PUMP 9.5x). Chain fee rank #2 at $5,702,128/24h behind Uniswap V4 $7,925,690
- **SLVR `0x791229E3EbD6CFdC3D8157f48722684173C29aD9` 0.80x at day 1, and its PROBE GATE HAS BEEN MET.** Revenue $26,230 (30 Aug) to $42,460 to $64,390 to **$75,597/day (2 Sep)**, a new ATH and a 5th consecutive daily rise. Falsifier 1 (rev under $40k/d by 9 Sep) not fired, moving away. **Net emission: the screen measured $77.9k/day at spot $137.71 against $64.4k of revenue = 1.21x. Price is now $107.08, so a fixed token-denominated mint is worth roughly $60.6k/day against $75,597 of revenue = ~0.80x. Revenue now exceeds net emission, which is the exact gate the 2 Sep row wrote for a PROBE.** **DERIVED, not directly measured**: it assumes the mint stayed fixed in token terms, as the screen stated. **Re-read the emission schedule on chain before acting on this.** Supporting: h24 buys/sells 1,609/676 = 2.38:1, the strongest buy skew in the book today; h6 +17.02% against h24 -28.91%
- **UP: revenue $70,665 (30 Aug) to $131,522 to $150,880 to $113,389 (2 Sep)**, first down day. Falsifier 2 (under $80k/d for 3 straight days) not fired. veUP lock durations and the weekly emission ratio STILL UNMEASURED, so the WATCH stands unchanged for a second run
- **PAIR `0x6b1d42927B1a84eC28Fa88d4fC6FA7AF404966be` 0.92x**, mc $4,524,230, liq $609,430, vol24 $2,980,406. Falsifier 2 (netflow negative AND vol24 under $5M by 9 Sep) is half-live: volume $2.98M is under $5M; netflow not re-read from the project's own Dune. Check both legs on 9 Sep
- **O `0x182fa643e5f29d5eca75e7b9cf9336a3fe4620b2` 1.00x**, mc $87,437,150, flat. o1 Launchpad RH fees24h **$411,118**, chain rank #6, still the steepest ramp on the chain with zero routing to the token. Falsifier 3 (on-chain buyback/burn of O) not fired, nothing on chain. **The NO stands, and a flat price against a still-accelerating fee curve is the cleanest illustration in the book of why routing, not revenue, is the variable**
- **RVH `0x96765066f6a040a21EB027167D2315B707c82633` 0.62x**, mc $641,668 from $1.04M, h24 -40.27%. The "next 1000x" shill call is 0.62x in one day. NO confirmed

## Standing notes added 3 Sep 2026
- **DexScreener `marketCap` is not a stable series and has changed basis on RAM twice in three days.** Never score a multiple off the mc field alone: cross-check it against the price ratio, and if the two disagree the field changed basis, not the valuation. Mechanical pre-delivery check, not a written rule
- **A multiple inside 48 hours of a screen is noise. Two clean instances: ARC 1.59x then 0.27x, RIPE 2.39x then 0.57x, both inverting in 24 hours, both previously labelled "the widest gap against a verdict".** The first scoreable horizon in this file is 7 days
- **A protocol's own API can make a falsifier fire that its headline metrics hide.** BOW's /api/stats shows 13.1x borrowing growth; /api/markets shows 95% of it is one disabled market breaching a 2,000 USDG cap by 99.5x. **Always pull the per-market breakdown, never the aggregate, when a lending metric is the evidence**
- Holder counts unobtainable for a third run. SCL falsifier 2 and ARC falsifier 3 have never once been measured. Build the RPC Transfer-event unique-address counter or delete those legs
- **DefiLlama `overview/fees/robinhood?dataType=dailyFees` returns the full per-protocol chain fee board in one call** and answers the RAM share falsifiers directly. Prefer it over per-slug `summary/fees`, which returned only the legacy Arbitrum series for slug `ramses-exchange` and would have read as a 99.8% fee collapse. The real slugs are `ramses-cl-v2`, `ramses-dlmm`, `ramses-legacy-v2`
- `pycryptodome` still not preinstalled; the RIPE Ledger mint-authority read (`ripeAvailForRewards()`, `ripeAvailForBonds()`) was skipped this run for want of keccak. Install it first next run: `pip install pycryptodome --break-system-packages`

---

## 4 Sep 2026, day 4 for the eight 31 Aug rows, day 3 for RIPE, day 2 for the five 2 Sep tokens

Sources: DexScreener (browser UA), RH RPC `https://robinhood-rpc.publicnode.com`, HyperEVM `https://rpc.hyperliquid.xyz/evm`, Base `https://mainnet.base.org`, DefiLlama fees/robinhood, longbow.cash APIs, Dune 8562361 run twice.

| Ticker | mc_screen | mc_now | multiple | max_mc_since | liq | vol24 | alive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCL | $287,730 | $32,002 | **0.11x** | $287,730 | $19,393 | $6,024 | yes |
| BOW | $7,747,316 | $8,901,188 | **1.15x NEW HIGH** | **$8,901,188** | $552,430 | $3,274,759 | yes |
| DICE | $778,508 | $665,525 | 0.85x | $778,508 | $102,345 | $797,956 | yes |
| BACKED | $1,053,287 | $997,312 | 0.95x | $1,288,548 | $187,554 | $213,383 | yes |
| RAM hub, 2nd pass (FDV) | $28,023,821 | $31,975,320 | 1.14x | $44,507,209 | $1,371,131 | $845,797 | yes |
| RAM hub, 4th pass (FDV) | $27,159,358 | $31,975,320 | 1.18x | $44,507,209 | $1,371,131 | $845,797 | yes |
| ARC | $342,605 | $10,750 | **0.031x** | $546,291 | $9,628 | $12,039 | yes |
| RIPE (cross-chain minted x price) | $48,300,000 | $24,890,491 | **0.52x** | $115,472,589 | $233,642 | $408,101 | yes |
| PONS | $275,600,000 | $471,976,018 | **1.71x NEW HIGH** | **$471,976,018** | $15,215,894 | $97,003,551 | yes |
| PAIR | $4,900,000 | $4,743,948 | 0.97x | $4,900,000 | $636,912 | $2,926,547 | yes |
| SLVR | $2,984,003 | $1,774,183 | **0.59x** | $2,984,003 | $181,175 | $674,773 | yes |
| RVH | $1,040,000 | $665,126 | 0.64x | $1,040,000 | $177,089 | $321,670 | yes |
| O | $87,300,000 | $93,246,344 | **1.07x NEW HIGH** | **$93,246,344** | $2,045,485 | $1,901,459 | yes |
| RAM satellite, auth row | see note | $7,109,758 | not scored | n/a | $908,428 | $4,399,050 | yes |

**No row dead. No NEW falsifier fired today. No 7d, 30d or 90d mark due (first is SCL/BOW/DICE/BACKED/RAM/ARC at 7d on 7 Sep 2026). 0 closed rows.**

### BOW `0x451b42A15100C340CA12F7c66DE06fac5EA2D751` — THE CALIBRATION ENTRY OF THIS RUN
- **mc $8,901,188 = 1.15x, a new high ABOVE mc_screen, on the day AFTER falsifier 3 fired.** h24 +73.15%, h6 +69.79%, h1 +26.35%, buys/sells h24 1,704/1,496, h1 580/600. Liq $552,430, vol24 $3,274,759
- **falsifier 3 stays FIRED and got worse: disabled markets 95.03% of borrowing** ($339,300.59 of $357,039.56, 55 markets). **wsNET-NN `0xaa586d26a6fe62d9c0f0948fede6e2130500ac7a655587447e2d4a37e6330589` alone $286,017.48 = 80.11% of all protocol borrowing against a stated cap of 2,000 USDG, a 143x breach, up from 74.82% and 99.5x yesterday.** PONS `0xaba3ac501ce4c6b80c08ed0dba19e1ac0de495f17af3ed692a38e92d176a6c9e` $52,206.00 = 14.62%. Enabled markets combined: CASHCAT $11,866.47 + SPY $4,077.20 + ETH $1,710.08 = $17,653.75 = 4.94%
- /api/stats: totalSupplied **$906,384.73** (screen $72,067.88 = 12.6x), totalBorrowed **$357,039.48** (screen $20,341.02 = 17.6x), utilisation 70.66%, openInterest $1,217,459.28 across 247 positions, marketCount 55, depositorCount **36** (screen 25, so 11 net depositors in 4 days), bowStaked 142,188,352.86
- falsifier 1 NOT fired, unchanged for a third run: rewardRate() raw 3,064,092,381,749,161,300,668 = 0.003064 USDG/sec = $264.73/day = $96,626/yr. periodFinish 1788858349 = 8 Sep 2026 09:05 UTC, four days out. Holder yield 1.09% of market cap per year at the higher cap
- **THE LESSON, and it is the mirror image of the ARC and RIPE lesson: a falsifier firing did not move the price down, it went +73% the next day.** A falsifier is a statement about the mechanism, not a trade signal. The BOW row is now a STARTER that is ahead of its entry AND has a fired structural falsifier at the same time. Both facts stand; do not let the price resolve the falsifier

### RAM, hub `0x555570a286F15EbDFE42B66eDE2f724Aa1AB5555`
- FDV $27,159,358 (4th pass screen) to $31,975,320 = **1.18x**, price $0.1146 to $0.1342 = 1.171x. Ratios agree, basis stable this run
- h24 -2.56%, h1 buys/sells 23/3, vol24 $845,797 (was $1,974,882, a 57% collapse in turnover)
- **THE SUPPLY DRAIN STALLED, first time in the series.** HyperEVM RPC: xRAM vault `0xae6d5fce541216bda471d311425b5412d9f1deb9` **159,317,513.21 RAM**, up +40,876 from 159,276,636.79. First net INFLOW recorded. Lockbox `0xe1c39b767e968a57af2ecad2f5b09ee2e7874d9f` **51,040,060.56**, up only +79,601 after +39.5M the prior three days. Deployer `0x20d630cf1f5628285bfb91dfac8c89eb9087be1a` **14,413,563.64, EXACTLY unchanged, first day it did not distribute**
- totalSupply **238,170,483.09**, DOWN 51,973 from 238,222,456.13. So the "emissions restarted" correction of 3 Sep is itself now qualified: net supply fell on the day. Treat the 3-day +1,287,580 as a bridging/mint artefact until a second rising day confirms it
- free float re-derived: 238,170,483 - 159,317,513 - 14,413,564 = **64,439,406 RAM, $8.65M at $0.1342.** Flat against 64.53M yesterday. **Falsifier 4 (circulating above 80M) NOT fired and its slope went to zero**
- falsifier 1 not fired: RH chain total fees24h **$17,234,089**. Falsifier 2 not fired: Ramses CL V2 $90,288 + DLMM $13,531 + Legacy V2 $461 = **$104,280/day**, well above the $30k floor. Ramses share of chain fees **0.61%**, down from 0.71% and from the 1.913% peak. The 1.5% share leg stays un-fired
- falsifier 3 stays permanently resolved against firing: r33 burned **1,936,633** (was 1,896,637), r33 totalSupply 11,635,656.08. **RAM burned at 0xdEaD re-confirmed at exactly 0.0, fifth consecutive read**
- the NO is 1.18x behind, narrowing for a second day (1.64x, 1.20x, 1.18x) and the coverage gate is now measured as static rather than draining

### RIPE `0x4D3f37a965b21aB4122e92Dd41D2693E742c883b` (RH) + `0x2a0a59d6b975828e781ecac125dba40d7ee5ddc0` (Base)
- **0.52x against the SELL at day 3.** Price $2.60 to **$2.36** on RH (h24 -10.05%, h6 -34.20%), Base $2.42
- cross-chain minted supply re-read on chain: RH `totalSupply()` **309,444.54** (was 299,579.78) + Base **10,237,374.23** (was 10,238,232.86) = **10,546,818.77 RIPE**. Real cap **$24,890,491** at the RH price (RH liq $174,299 is the deeper book against Base $59,342). Aggregators still wrong: DexScreener RH prints $731,012, Base prints $3,241,467 with FDV $24,821,784
- supply +8,946 RIPE in a day against a -10% price. The emission still runs regardless of price, fourth consecutive day
- **REVERSAL TRIGGER 1 STILL NOT FIRED, fourth read. Endaoment `0x9f20f25f037046721a292b19a486932ef390eaf9` holds 0 RIPE and 0 GREEN.** The toll booth has never collected anything, through +1482% and through -76%
- **REVERSAL TRIGGER 2 MOVING FURTHER AWAY. GREEN outstanding both chains 655,284.64** (RH `0x355bb7f0f6c730e4460d620420a300fa08ff82f3` 242,901.45 + Base `0xd1eac76497d06cf15475a5e3984d5bc03de7c707` 412,383.19), down 11.8% from 742,581.21 and down 33.7% from the 988,336.25 peak. Now **13.1% of the $5M threshold**, second consecutive contraction. The RH leg is doing the shrinking (590,125 → 321,171 → 242,901); the Base leg is flat
- reversal trigger 3 (price back to $0.57 to $1.44) not fired
- **Gate 1 NOT re-measured: `ripeAvailForRewards()` and `ripeAvailForBonds()` on Ledger `0x7e1d751d168f09761b88651a4c78c996354faeb1` both returned null via eth_call on Base and on RH.** Either the Ledger is at a different address than recorded or the selectors are wrong. **Find the correct Ledger address and selectors before quoting the coverage ratio again; the 208x figure of 2 Sep is now two days stale**

### SCL `0xBe92b334E045Bbfd292a28e54f8C75aF2FC07bBE`
- mc $32,002 = **0.11x, still the best-performing NO in the book.** h24 +9.35% on almost no flow: buys/sells h24 40/46, h1 0/1, m5 0/0. liq $19,393, **vol24 $6,024, down from $23,630**
- **vol24 is now 12.0x the $500 dead floor and liquidity 3.9x the $5,000 floor. On this turnover the row closes as dead within days, not weeks**
- falsifier 1 fired 31 Aug, uncontradicted for four days. Falsifier 3 not due until 30 Sep

### ARC `0xce845443428867d271929bd739148B85524B536a`
- mc $10,750 = **0.031x, the NO is right by 31.9x** from a day-1 high of $546,291. h24 -57.82%, h6 buys/sells 0/9, h1 0/3. liq $9,628, vol24 $12,039
- **ZERO buys in the last 6 hours. Liquidity 1.9x the $5,000 dead floor. This row closes as dead first**
- falsifier 2 stays FIRED (2 Sep, $27,567). Falsifiers 1 and 4 not due until 14 and 30 Sep
- **CORRECTION TO THE ARC SCREEN ROW, THE SECOND ONE OF THIS KIND.** Its top-15 buyer list named `0xada5bb90d0de0bd1b6f3938708f49295a8d1f7cb` FIRST, at "231 tokens, spray bot". Dune degree test run today for the operator graph: that address has **sent to 90,726 addresses and was the first funder of 43,148 of them.** It is infrastructure, not a trader. **The ARC spray-bot count drops from 10 of 15 to 9 of 15.** Same failure as `0xf70da97812cb96acdf810712aa562db8dfa3dbef` on 1 Sep: the two wallets sitting at the top of that list were both routers. The number that misled, again: token-touch count reads as spray only after out-degree is checked

### DICE `0x3F9f0b6073Ee8c495Aed96869AF31850fED40FeB`
- mc $665,525 = 0.85x, h24 +107% then h6 -48.34% and h1 -15.03%. buys/sells h24 1,304/1,357, h1 61/38. liq $102,345, vol24 $797,956 = 7.8x liquidity
- a full round trip inside one day on 7.8x-of-liquidity churn. Falsifiers 1 and 2 not due until 21 Sep. Falsifier 3 not re-measured for a fourth run

### BACKED `0x7168563B0E70124f0C7c0cF2F13a8D1861BAf4A5`
- mc $997,312 = 0.95x, h24 +36.82%, buys/sells h24 347/233, h6 102/60, h1 23/9. max_mc_since stays $1,288,548
- **totalSupply 944,136,618.4608119, IDENTICAL to yesterday to eight decimals. Zero BACKED redeemed and burned in 24 hours. Redemption has fully stopped**
- falsifier 1 not fired: vol24 across all base pairs $213,383, still 4.3x the $50,000/day threshold. At the 3% tax that is roughly $6,400 to the vault today, against $5,030 / $12,300 / $31,100 on the three prior days, so the three-halving slide has flattened
- **FALSIFIER 3, DAY 4 OF 14.** DENAR `0x3786728a2c49C4617Bf4FE5BD82b90B6B0dF5508` mc **$1,487,599**, liq $136,779, vol24 $324,820, h24 +62.11% versus BACKED $997,312. **DENAR still above and the gap WIDENED back out from 1.25x to 1.49x.** Counter continues
- falsifier 2 still unmeasurable: the seven StockVault stock-token addresses are still not recorded anywhere in memory. **Fourth run flagged. Record them the next time BACKED is opened or this falsifier cannot be evaluated on 30 Sep**

### The five 2 Sep tokens, day 2
- **PONS `0x39dbed3a2bd333467115de45665cc57f813c4571` 1.71x, NEW HIGH $471,976,018**, h24 +42.90%, liq $15.2M, vol24 $97.0M. DefiLlama dailyRevenue **Pons V2 $1,191,323 + Pons V1 $50,503 = $1,241,826/day, a new ATH** against 30 Aug $1,011,045 / 1 Sep $909,887 / 2 Sep $1,063,316. Falsifier 1 (rev under $500k for 3 straight days) moving away. Run-rate cap/rev **1.04x**, up from 0.85x because price outran revenue. Pons V2 fees24h $6,085,253, chain fee rank #2 behind Uniswap V4 $6,275,323. **The cheapest-in-sector call is 1.71x ahead at day 2 and is the best-performing verdict in the book**
- **SLVR `0x791229E3EbD6CFdC3D8157f48722684173C29aD9` 0.59x**, mc $1,774,183, price $137.71 at screen to **$80.64**, h24 -24.85%, h6 -31.48%. **Revenue made ANOTHER ATH: $78,089/day (30 Aug $26,230 → $42,460 → $64,390 → $75,597 → $78,089), a sixth consecutive daily rise.** Falsifier 1 (rev under $40k/d by 9 Sep) moving away hard. **The PROBE gate is met more strongly than yesterday and by a worse route: revenue up 3.3%, price down 24.9%, so a fixed token-denominated mint is now worth roughly $45.6k/day against $78,089 of revenue = ~0.58x, from 1.21x at screen.** Still DERIVED, the emission schedule is still not read on chain. Buy skew stays the strongest in the book: h24 930/520 = 1.79:1, h6 278/105 = 2.65:1, h1 55/16 = 3.44:1. **A revenue ATH with a 0.59x price and a 3.44:1 hourly buy skew is the single most interesting divergence open in the book. Read the emission schedule on chain before the next run and the PROBE stops being conditional**
- **UP: revenue $86,668/day** (up v3 $84,899 + up v2 $1,769), down from $113,389 / $150,880 / $131,522. **Falsifier 2 (under $80k/d for three straight days) is one day into its window at $86,668, still above the line but it has halved off the peak in two days.** veUP lock durations and the weekly emission ratio UNMEASURED for a third run. WATCH stands
- **PAIR `0x6b1d42927B1a84eC28Fa88d4fC6FA7AF404966be` 0.97x**, mc $4,743,948, liq $636,912, vol24 $2,926,547. Falsifier 2 still half-live: volume under $5M for a second day, netflow not re-read from the project's Dune. Both legs due 9 Sep. h1 buys/sells 99/182 is the weakest hourly skew in the book
- **O `0x182fa643e5f29d5eca75e7b9cf9336a3fe4620b2` 1.07x, new high $93,246,344**, FDV $582,789,648. **o1 Launchpad RH revenue $111,054/day, DOWN from $242,019 and $411,118: the fee curve that was "the steepest ramp on the chain" has fallen 73% in two days while the token made a new high.** Falsifier 3 (on-chain buyback/burn of O) not fired, nothing on chain. **The NO stands and the illustration got sharper: price and fees are now moving in opposite directions, which is what zero routing looks like**
- **RVH `0x96765066f6a040a21EB027167D2315B707c82633` 0.64x**, mc $665,126, h24 +2.94% after -40.27%. The "next 1000x" call is 0.64x at day 2

## Standing notes added 4 Sep 2026
- **HOLDER COUNTS: the RPC fallback proposed on 1 Sep CANNOT BE BUILT on the known endpoint. `eth_getLogs` on `https://robinhood-rpc.publicnode.com` returns HTTP 403 even with a browser UA, while `eth_call` on the same endpoint works. Four alternate RH RPC hosts probed (`rpc.robinhood.com`, `robinhood.drpc.org`, `rpc.robinhoodchain.com`, `mainnet.robinhood.com/rpc`), all TLS or 400 failures.** SCL falsifier 2 and ARC falsifier 3 have now been UNMEASURED for four consecutive runs. **Decision owed: find a log-capable RH endpoint (Dune `robinhood.logs` or an archive provider) or delete both legs. A falsifier that has never once been measurable is not a falsifier**
- **A FIRED FALSIFIER IS NOT A PRICE SIGNAL.** BOW fired its structural falsifier on 3 Sep at 95.01% and printed +73% and a new all-time high against mc_screen the next day. The file's own habit of writing a fired falsifier next to a falling multiple has been coincidence twice, not causation. Report the two separately
- **The degree filter has now corrected the SAME buyer list twice** (`0xf70da97812cb96acdf810712aa562db8dfa3dbef` on 1 Sep, `0xada5bb90d0de0bd1b6f3938708f49295a8d1f7cb` today, both from ARC's top-15). **Run the degree test on the top 5 buyer wallets of every screen at screen time, not after the fact**
- **Revenue and price decoupled in both directions in the same run**: SLVR revenue ATH with a 0.59x price, O price ATH with a 73% fee collapse. Both are routing stories, and both say the same thing: **score the routing mechanism, never the revenue curve**
- DefiLlama `overview/fees/robinhood?dataType=dailyRevenue` plus `dataType=dailyFees` in two calls answers PONS, SLVR, UP, o1 and all three Ramses slugs at once. Keep using it over per-slug summary endpoints