---
name: screen-log-outcomes-3
description: Continuation of [[screen-log-outcomes-2]] from 5 Sep 2026, after that file hit the 32KB cap. Daily scoring of every open row in [[screen-log]] and [[screen-log-2]] — multiples, falsifier checks, corrections.
sources: [cowork]
aliases: [outcome-updates-3, scoring-log-3]
---

# Screen log outcomes, part 3 (from 5 Sep 2026)

Rules, dead thresholds and the runs of 1 to 4 Sep 2026 are in [[screen-log-outcomes]] and [[screen-log-outcomes-2]]. Same method: DexScreener tokens endpoint with a browser UA, base-token pairs only, liq and vol summed across base pairs, marketCap from the highest-liquidity pair, cross-checked against the price ratio.

---

## 5 Sep 2026, day 5 for the eight 31 Aug rows, day 4 for RIPE, day 3 for the five 2 Sep tokens, day 1 for STONK

Sources: DexScreener; RH RPC `https://robinhood-rpc.publicnode.com`; HyperEVM `https://rpc.hyperliquid.xyz/evm`; Base `https://mainnet.base.org`; Solana `https://api.mainnet-beta.solana.com` getTokenSupply; DefiLlama overview/fees/robinhood dailyRevenue + dailyFees and summary/fees/stonkfun; longbow.cash /api/stats and /api/markets; Dune query 8562361 run twice.

| Ticker | mc_screen | mc_now | multiple | max_mc_since | liq | vol24 | alive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCL | $287,730 | $14,234 | **0.049x** | $287,730 | $11,623 | $5,941 | yes |
| BOW | $7,747,316 | $7,996,365 | 1.03x | $8,901,188 | $501,665 | $3,563,525 | yes |
| DICE | $778,508 | $523,553 | 0.67x | $778,508 | $87,327 | $370,598 | yes |
| BACKED | $1,053,287 | $805,789 | 0.77x | $1,288,548 | $177,661 | $154,603 | yes |
| RAM hub, 2nd pass (FDV) | $28,023,821 | $24,024,182 | 0.86x | $44,507,209 | $1,254,828 | $658,861 | yes |
| RAM hub, 4th pass (FDV) | $27,159,358 | $24,024,182 | 0.88x | $44,507,209 | $1,254,828 | $658,861 | yes |
| ARC | $342,605 | $9,003 | **0.026x** | $546,291 | $8,705 | $2,365 | yes |
| RIPE (cross-chain minted x RH price) | $48,300,000 | $17,725,368 | **0.37x** | $115,472,589 | $141,488 | $92,236 | yes |
| PONS | $275,600,000 | $452,207,869 | **1.64x** | $471,976,018 | $18,844,372 | $121,835,617 | yes |
| PAIR | $4,900,000 | $7,007,939 | **1.43x NEW HIGH** | **$7,007,939** | $888,141 | $9,217,896 | yes |
| SLVR | $2,984,003 | $1,853,781 | 0.62x | $2,984,003 | $171,773 | $369,676 | yes |
| RVH | $1,040,000 | $490,424 | 0.47x | $1,040,000 | $147,232 | $174,157 | yes |
| O | $87,300,000 | $87,530,935 | 1.00x | $93,246,344 | $2,022,652 | $925,751 | yes |
| STONK (day 1, first score) | $19,665,691 | $23,804,191 | **1.21x NEW HIGH** | **$23,804,191** | $2,344,741 | $5,999,619 | yes |
| RAM satellite, auth row | see note | $4,969,504 | not scored | n/a | $744,830 | $3,956,669 | yes |

**No row dead. NO NEW FALSIFIER FIRED. No 7d, 30d or 90d mark due (first 7d marks land 7 Sep for SCL, BOW, DICE, BACKED, both RAM hub rows and ARC). 0 closed rows of the 15 required.**

### The two rows closest to closing dead, and neither closed
- **ARC** liq $8,705 (1.74x the $5,000 floor), vol24 $2,365 (4.7x the $500 floor). Both fell again; h24 -15.56%, h1 buys/sells 1/0. **This is the fifth consecutive day it has been called "closes first" and it has not closed.** State it as a threshold distance, not a forecast
- **SCL** liq $11,623 (2.32x floor), vol24 $5,941 (11.9x floor). h24 -41.90%, buys/sells h24 11/39, m5 0/0. Turnover recovered slightly from $6,024 yesterday, so the "dead within days" line of 4 Sep did not hold either

### PAIR `0x6b1d42927B1a84eC28Fa88d4fC6FA7AF404966be` — THE MOVE OF THIS RUN
- **mc $7,007,939 = 1.43x, a new high, up from 0.97x yesterday.** h24 **+50.59%**, h1 +6.92% with buys/sells 51/7, m5 7/0. h6 -22.88%, so the day was a spike and a partial giveback
- liq $888,141 (was $636,912), vol24 **$9,217,896** (was $2,926,547)
- **FALSIFIER 2 HALF-REVERSED. The volume leg is no longer met: vol24 $9.22M is above the $5M threshold**, after two days under it. The netflow leg is still not re-read from the project's own Dune. Both legs due 9 Sep; on today's reading falsifier 2 cannot fire on the volume half
- the PROBE is the second-best-performing verdict in the book behind PONS

### STONK `6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx` — first scoring, day 1
- **mc $23,804,191 = 1.21x against mc_screen $19,665,691.** Per the file's own rule a day-1 multiple is not evidence; recorded only so it cannot be retrofitted. h24 -0.03%, h6 +10.47%, h1 +8.79% with buys/sells 114/238
- **falsifier 1 NOT fired but moving the wrong way: 7d revenue $223,407 = $31,915/day average, down from $33,773 at screen.** Threshold is $25,000/day. It is now 1.28x above the line
- **falsifier 3 NOT fired: supply 886,224,980.04**, down from 888,179,234.79 at screen. **113,775,020 burned = 11.38% of the 1,000,000,000 original, up from 11.18%.** The burn is still running, 1,954,255 tokens destroyed in one day
- falsifier 2 (LaunchLab take rate) not evaluable, the migration has not shipped
- DefiLlama daily series unchanged at the tail: last complete day still $37,598. Llama's stonkfun series did not advance a day between the 4 Sep and 5 Sep runs

### BOW `0x451b42A15100C340CA12F7c66DE06fac5EA2D751`
- mc $7,996,365 = 1.03x, off yesterday's high of $8,901,188. h24 -9.08%, h6 -15.50%, h1 -8.58%, buys/sells h24 1,707/1,949
- **falsifier 3 stays FIRED and the exposure eased slightly for the first time: disabled markets 91.50% of borrowing** ($428,946.38 of $468,782.50 across 55 markets), down from 95.03%. **wsNET-NN `0xaa586d26a6fe62d9c0f0948fede6e2130500ac7a655587447e2d4a37e6330589` alone $373,180.59 = 79.61% of all protocol borrowing against its stated 2,000 USDG cap, a 187x breach, up from 143x.** PONS `0xaba3ac501ce4c6b80c08ed0dba19e1ac0de495f17af3ed692a38e92d176a6c9e` $53,310.74 = 11.37%
- /api/stats: totalSupplied **$941,435.16**, totalBorrowed **$468,782.50** (screen $20,341.02 = 23.0x), utilisation **90.07%**, openInterest $1,496,895.85, marketCount 55, **depositorCount 39** (screen 25, so 14 net depositors in five days)
- falsifier 1 NOT fired, fourth consecutive unchanged read: rewardRate() on `0xEba502e1177f5fad9432c2deb273569D8381e01A` raw 3,064,092,381,749,161,300,668 = 0.003064 USDG/sec = $264.73/day = $96,626/yr. **periodFinish 1788858349 = 8 Sep 2026 09:05 UTC, three days out. This is the leg to watch: if it passes un-refunded the falsifier fires without any change in rewardRate**
- **FULL-upgrade trigger, two of three legs met and the PONS leg improved**: totalBorrowed $468,782 clears $50,000, PONS at 11.37% clears the under-40% requirement, depositorCount 39 versus 100 remains the only missing leg

### RAM, hub `0x555570a286F15EbDFE42B66eDE2f724Aa1AB5555`
- FDV $27,159,358 (4th pass screen) to **$24,024,182 = 0.88x**, price $0.1146 to $0.1008 = 0.879x. Ratios agree, basis stable. **DexScreener's hub marketCap field reverted to a circulating basis today ($7,955,642); scoring on FDV as set 2 Sep, and this is the third basis change in four days on the same token**
- **THE NO IS NOW AHEAD FOR THE FIRST TIME.** The series is 1.64x, 1.20x, 1.18x, **0.88x**. The 31 Aug NO at $0.1146 is right by 12% at day 5
- h24 -24.80%, h1 buys/sells 0/7, vol24 $658,861, down a further 22% from $845,797
- HyperEVM balances: totalSupply **238,151,092.03** (was 238,170,483.09, -19,391, second consecutive decline, so the 3 Sep "emissions restarted" correction stays qualified and is now more likely a bridging artefact) · xRAM vault `0xae6d5fce541216bda471d311425b5412d9f1deb9` **159,274,799.21** (-42,714, resumed draining after yesterday's single inflow) · LayerZero lockbox `0xe1c39b767e968a57af2ecad2f5b09ee2e7874d9f` **49,525,505.16** (-1,514,555, **satellite supply is now flowing BACK to the hub**, first net reverse bridge in the series) · deployer `0x20d630cf1f5628285bfb91dfac8c89eb9087be1a` **14,541,628.28**, **UP +128,065, the first day it ACCUMULATED** after four days of distributing
- free float 238,151,092 - 159,274,799 - 14,541,628 = **64,334,665 RAM, $6.49M at $0.1008.** Flat for a third day. **Falsifier 4 (circulating above 80M) NOT fired and its slope is now zero for two days**
- falsifier 1 not fired: RH chain total fees24h **$21,175,748**. Falsifier 2 not fired: Ramses CL V2 $113,784 + DLMM $19,335 + Legacy V2 $335 = **$133,454/day**, 4.4x the $30k floor and up from $104,280. **Ramses share of chain fees 0.63%**, up from 0.61%, still far under the 1.5% buy leg
- falsifier 3 permanently resolved against firing: r33 `0x4e5195469A0360f5dfe811730C9CCaCFF0a0FeeE` burned **1,976,629** (was 1,936,633), totalSupply 11,245,720.30, **burn share 17.58% of supply**
- **RAM burned at 0xdEaD re-confirmed at exactly 0.0, sixth consecutive read.** The r33 holder is still the only beneficiary of the buyback

### RIPE `0x4D3f37a965b21aB4122e92Dd41D2693E742c883b` (RH) + `0x2a0a59d6b975828e781ecac125dba40d7ee5ddc0` (Base)
- **0.37x against the SELL at day 4**, the widest the NO has been right. Price $2.36 to **$1.68** on RH (h24 -28.65%), Base $1.81 (h24 -24.74%)
- cross-chain minted supply on chain: RH `totalSupply()` **309,216.32** + Base **10,241,597.69** = **10,550,814.01 RIPE**. Real cap **$17,725,368** at the RH price (RH liq $141,488 is still the deeper book against Base $50,851). Aggregators still wrong by 34x and 1.05x: DexScreener prints $521,376 on RH and $18,627,123 on Base
- supply +3,995 RIPE in a day against a -29% price. **Fifth consecutive day of emission running regardless of price**
- **REVERSAL TRIGGER 1 STILL NOT FIRED, fifth read. Endaoment `0x9f20f25f037046721a292b19a486932ef390eaf9` holds 0 RIPE.** The toll booth has never collected anything
- **REVERSAL TRIGGER 2, first rise in three days but immaterial. GREEN outstanding both chains 663,713.18** (RH `0x355bb7f0f6c730e4460d620420a300fa08ff82f3` 251,330.75 + Base `0xd1eac76497d06cf15475a5e3984d5bc03de7c707` 412,382.43), up 1.3% from 655,284.64. **13.3% of the $5M threshold.** The RH leg stopped shrinking (242,901 to 251,331); Base flat for a third day
- **REVERSAL TRIGGER 3 IS NOW CLOSE. The band is $0.57 to $1.44 and the price is $1.68, only 16.7% above the top of it.** On the current slope this trigger comes into range within days. **Note what it means: the trigger was written to reopen a buy, so a further fall of 17% converts the best-performing NO in the book into a reversal candidate. Do not let the multiple decide it; the trigger has two other conditions (farm collateral intact) that must be read at the same time**
- Gate 1 coverage still NOT re-measured: the Ledger address and selectors recorded in memory returned null again on 4 Sep and were not retried today. **The 208x figure of 2 Sep is now three days stale**

### SCL `0xBe92b334E045Bbfd292a28e54f8C75aF2FC07bBE`
- mc $14,234 = **0.049x, still the best-performing NO in the book, right by 20.2x.** h24 -41.90%, h6 -30.45%, buys/sells h24 11/39, h1 1/1, m5 0/0. liq $11,623, vol24 $5,941
- falsifier 1 fired 31 Aug, uncontradicted for five days. Falsifier 3 (position manager) not due until 30 Sep
- falsifier 2 (holders below 686 while price falls) **UNMEASURED for a fifth consecutive run.** The 4 Sep note established that `eth_getLogs` is 403 on the only working RH endpoint and that four alternates fail. **Decision still owed: build the count off Dune `robinhood.logs`, or delete the leg**

### ARC `0xce845443428867d271929bd739148B85524B536a`
- mc $9,003 = **0.026x, the NO is right by 38.1x** from a day-1 high of $546,291
- falsifier 2 stays FIRED (2 Sep, $27,567). Falsifiers 1 and 4 not due until 14 and 30 Sep. Falsifier 3 (@ArcLiquidity silent 7 days) not measured for a fifth run, no X call available in this container

### DICE `0x3F9f0b6073Ee8c495Aed96869AF31850fED40FeB`
- mc $523,553 = 0.67x, h24 -21.50%, h6 -30.68%, h1 +9.90%. buys/sells h24 859/972. liq $87,327, vol24 $370,598 = 4.2x liquidity
- **falsifier 2 re-measured for the first time in four runs and it is on track to fire: DiceStake `0xc091ce59cAC1112A30e4344ced039c25B6cfa174` holds 1,361,150 DICE, EXACTLY the screen figure.** Threshold is under 10,000,000 on 21 Sep. Staking has taken zero net deposits in five days
- **falsifier 3 partially measured: the fee EOA `0x4acd2c88a239a924e47fc4995114ca1bb0ca3cad` holds 0 DICE.** A zero balance is consistent with both "no new tranche" and "tranche received and forwarded", so this leg still needs a transfer-log read, which the RH endpoint cannot serve. Same blocker as SCL falsifier 2
- falsifier 1 (7-day request count) not due until 21 Sep and not re-measured

### BACKED `0x7168563B0E70124f0C7c0cF2F13a8D1861BAf4A5`
- mc $805,789 = 0.77x, h24 -19.54%, h6 -16.65%, h1 buys/sells 14/7. max_mc_since stays $1,288,548
- **totalSupply 944,136,618.4608119, IDENTICAL to the two prior reads to eight decimals. Zero redemption for a third consecutive day**, with the price still ~5x the redeemable floor
- falsifier 1 NOT fired: vol24 across base pairs $154,603, 3.1x the $50,000/day threshold, but **down 28% from $213,383 and the lowest reading since the screen.** At the 3% tax that is roughly $4,640 to the vault today against $6,400 / $5,030 / $12,300 / $31,100 on the four prior days
- **FALSIFIER 3, DAY 5 OF 14.** DENAR `0x3786728a2c49C4617Bf4FE5BD82b90B6B0dF5508` mc **$965,663**, liq $102,719, vol24 $274,776 versus BACKED $805,789. **DENAR still above; gap narrowed from 1.49x to 1.20x.** Counter continues, reset only when BACKED is back on top
- falsifier 2 still unmeasurable for a fifth run: the seven StockVault stock-token addresses are still not recorded anywhere in memory. **Record them the next time BACKED is opened or this falsifier cannot be evaluated on 30 Sep**

### The five 2 Sep tokens, day 3
- **PONS `0x39dbed3a2bd333467115de45665cc57f813c4571` 1.64x**, mc $452,207,869, off yesterday's high of $471,976,018. h24 -3.94%, h6 -8.57%, **h1 -9.25% with buys/sells 75/368, the heaviest hourly sell skew in the book today**. liq $18.84M, vol24 $121.8M. DefiLlama Pons V2 $1,191,323 + Pons V1 $64,478 = **$1,255,801/day**. Falsifier 1 (rev under $500k for 3 straight days) nowhere near. Run-rate cap/rev **0.99x**. **DATA CAVEAT: the Pons V2 figure is identical to yesterday's to the dollar while every other protocol on the board moved. Treat one of the two readings as stale and re-pull before quoting a revenue trend for Pons**
- **SLVR `0x791229E3EbD6CFdC3D8157f48722684173C29aD9` 0.62x**, mc $1,853,781, price $81.21. h24 +1.00%, h6 +20.34%, buys/sells h24 1,001/340 = 2.94:1, **still the strongest buy skew in the book**. **THE SIX-DAY REVENUE ATH STREAK BROKE: $54,386/day, down 30.4% from $78,089.** Falsifier 1 (rev under $40k/d by 9 Sep) NOT fired, still 1.36x above the line, but this is the first day it moved toward it. Net emission at spot: the screen's fixed token-denominated mint of ~565.7 SLVR/day is worth ~$45,942/day against $54,386 of revenue = **0.84x, still under the 1.5x leg**, but the margin narrowed from 0.58x. **The emission schedule is STILL not read on chain, a fourth run. The PROBE stays conditional and the gate is now moving on both legs**
- **UP: revenue $95,348/day** (up v3 $92,563 + up v2 $2,785), up from $86,668. **Falsifier 2 (under $80k/d for three straight days) has RESET, the counter is back to zero.** veUP lock durations and the weekly emission ratio UNMEASURED for a fourth run. WATCH stands unchanged
- **O `0x182fa643e5f29d5eca75e7b9cf9336a3fe4620b2` 1.00x**, mc $87,530,935, FDV $547,068,346. o1 Launchpad RH revenue **$117,975/day**, up from $111,054 but still 71% below the $411,118 peak. Falsifier 3 (on-chain buyback/burn of O) not fired. h1 buys/sells 30/110, m5 0/20. **The NO stands at exactly flat after three days**
- **RVH `0x96765066f6a040a21EB027167D2315B707c82633` 0.47x**, mc $490,424, h24 -26.16%. The "next 1000x" shill call is 0.47x at day 3 and making new lows

## Standing notes added 5 Sep 2026
- **"Closes as dead first" has now been written about ARC on three consecutive runs and it has not closed.** A row sitting at 1.7x the liquidity floor with falling volume can sit there for weeks. **Report the distance to the threshold and stop forecasting the close date**
- **DexScreener changed the RAM hub marketCap basis for a THIRD time in four days** (fdv-equal on 3 Sep, fdv-equal on 4 Sep, circulating today). The price-ratio cross-check caught it each time. Keep the check; never score off the mc field alone
- **A falsifier leg can un-fire.** PAIR's volume leg went under $5M for two days and came back above it today, and UP's three-day revenue counter reset. **Record the counter state explicitly each run, not just fired or not fired, or a two-day streak gets silently treated as three**
- **DICE falsifier 3 and SCL falsifier 2 have the same blocker**, a transfer-log read the RH public endpoint refuses. That is now five runs. **One Dune `robinhood.logs` query would close both legs and the holder-count gap at once. It is the highest-value unrun query in this file**
- **Two independent revenue series looked stale this run** (DefiLlama Pons V2 identical to the dollar, stonkfun's daily tail unchanged). **Check the last timestamp of any Llama series before reading a trend off it**, the same discipline the 3 Sep run applied to Dune's `max(block_time)`

## COMMOTITTES intraday watch, 5 Sep 2026, 07:14 to 08:55 UTC. **CLOSED SAME DAY.** RH chain `0xF9E04be607E30020526E6Bbb45E5b754aAb888E3`
First row in this stack scored on an intraday holder series rather than a daily print. Screened at 1h07m old, closed at 2h48m old. Full screen in [[screen-log-2]], mechanism in [[nest-launchpad]].

| UTC | mcap | holders | agg liq | turnover | vault (GLD+SLV) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:14 | $218,606 | 510 | $42,892 | — | $10,258 |
| 07:29 | $158,678 | 541 | $36,550 | — | $11,085 |
| 07:40 | $194,677 | 575 | $40,500 | — | $11,522 |
| 08:00 | $221,799 | 597 | $44,164 | 16.7x | $13,122 |
| 08:25 | **$113,565** | **552** | $31,329 | **25.1x** | $14,145 |
| 08:55 | $124,414 | **526** | $32,792 | 24.8x | $14,418 |

- ATH mcap **$416,137 at 06:57**, 50 minutes after launch. Close of watch $124,414 = **-70.1% off ATH and 0.57x against the $218,606 screen price.**
- **VERDICT SELL, called at 08:55 on the second consecutive falling holder read (597 → 552 → 526).** Dropped from the coinbench tracker the same minute.
- **THE SIGNAL THAT WORKED WAS THE HOLDER SLOPE, AND IT INVERTED ONE READ BEFORE THE SECOND LEG DOWN.** Holders rose on six consecutive reads (510, 527, 541, 566, 575, 597), then fell twice. Price had already round-tripped once and recovered, so price alone gave no usable signal; the holder line did.
- **Turnover crossed the 20x drain line in the same 25 minutes the holder line broke** (16.7x → 25.1x), and aggregate liquidity fell $44,164 → $31,329. **Two independent confirmations of the same event.** The coinbench 20x rule earned its place here.
- **Hourly trade count is the third confirmation and it decayed fastest of all: h1 buys 1,852 → 881 → 593 → 362 across four reads.** 24h volume looked flat ($735k → $785k → $813k) because it is a cumulative window. **Never read activity off a 24h counter on a token that is under 24 hours old; read the h1 count.**
- **THE VAULT KEPT RISING THE WHOLE WAY DOWN ($13,122 → $14,145 → $14,418) AND MEANT NOTHING.** It is mechanically fed by fee volume, including exit volume. **A backing balance that grows on sells is not a demand signal, and quoting it as one would have justified holding into a -70% leg.** Backing as a share of cap "improved" from 4.7% to 11.6% purely because the numerator was falling. Standing rule: price a mechanical floor as a floor, never as a trend.
- Base-rate context, from the h90 work added to [[base-rates]] the same hour: 541 holders at 90 minutes was the **top 1.0% of 119,588 launches in 3 days**, and that bucket has a **46% chance of still having any transfer after hour 24.** This token was in the losing half. **A top-1% opening is exactly as weak a screen-in signal as that file says it is, and this row is the first live confirmation.**

---

## CONTINUED IN [[screen-log-outcomes-4]] FROM 6 SEP 2026
This file is near the 32KB cap. Runs from 6 Sep 2026 onward are in [[screen-log-outcomes-4]]. **Read both.**
Headlines of the 6 Sep run: **PONS 2.41x, PAIR 3.38x and STONK 3.09x all printed new highs on the same chain-wide risk-on day** (the three verdicts that were not a NO); **no new falsifier fired, no row dead, 0 closed rows**; **SLVR falsifier 1 is 0.15% from firing** at $40,060/day against a $40,000 threshold; **BOW's staking periodFinish is 8 Sep 09:05 UTC, 48 hours out, and fires on the calendar if un-refunded**; **RIPE reversal trigger 3 is in range**, RH price exactly $1.44 at the top of the $0.57 to $1.44 band; and **Dune is out of quota at the account level, so step 2 did not run and the `robinhood.logs` query that would close SCL falsifier 2 and DICE falsifier 3 is frozen.**