---
name: screen-log-outcomes-4
description: Continuation of [[screen-log-outcomes-3]] from 6 Sep 2026, after that file neared the 32KB cap. Daily scoring of every open row in [[screen-log]] and [[screen-log-2]] — multiples, falsifier checks, corrections.
sources: [cowork]
aliases: [outcome-updates-4, scoring-log-4]
---

# Screen log outcomes, part 4 (from 6 Sep 2026)

Rules, dead thresholds and the runs of 1 to 5 Sep 2026 are in [[screen-log-outcomes]], [[screen-log-outcomes-2]] and [[screen-log-outcomes-3]]. Same method: DexScreener tokens endpoint, base-token pairs only, liq and vol summed across base pairs, marketCap from the highest-liquidity pair, cross-checked against the price ratio.

---

## 6 Sep 2026, day 6 for the eight 31 Aug rows, day 5 RIPE, day 4 the five 2 Sep tokens, day 2 STONK, day 1 COMMOTITTES

Sources: DexScreener; RH RPC `https://robinhood-rpc.publicnode.com`; HyperEVM `https://rpc.hyperliquid.xyz/evm`; Base `https://mainnet.base.org`; Solana getTokenSupply; DefiLlama overview/fees/robinhood dailyRevenue + dailyFees and summary/fees/stonkfun; longbow.cash /api/stats and /api/markets. **Dune NOT available this run, see the block at the end.**

| Ticker | mc_screen | mc_now | multiple | max_mc_since | liq | vol24 | alive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCL | $287,730 | $16,367 | **0.057x** | $287,730 | $12,809 | $1,648 | yes |
| BOW | $7,747,316 | $7,830,883 | 1.01x | $8,901,188 | $516,845 | $2,125,326 | yes |
| DICE | $778,508 | $297,503 | 0.38x | $778,508 | $66,346 | $228,316 | yes |
| BACKED | $1,053,287 | $891,396 | 0.85x | $1,288,548 | $186,520 | $83,113 | yes |
| RAM hub, 2nd pass (FDV) | $28,023,821 | $28,508,103 | 1.02x | $44,507,209 | $1,200,236 | $361,990 | yes |
| RAM hub, 4th pass (FDV) | $27,159,358 | $28,508,103 | 1.05x | $44,507,209 | $1,200,236 | $361,990 | yes |
| ARC | $342,605 | $6,272 | **0.018x** | $546,291 | $7,306 | $822 | yes |
| RIPE (cross-chain minted x RH price) | $48,300,000 | $15,198,852 | **0.31x** | $115,472,589 | $133,298 (RH) | $80,019 (RH) | yes |
| PONS | $275,600,000 | $664,700,596 | **2.41x NEW HIGH** | **$664,700,596** | $24,544,876 | $124,340,429 | yes |
| PAIR | $4,900,000 | $16,544,101 | **3.38x NEW HIGH** | **$16,544,101** | $1,784,752 | $8,835,895 | yes |
| SLVR | $2,984,003 | $1,716,244 | 0.58x | $2,984,003 | $164,985 | $342,034 | yes |
| RVH | $1,040,000 | $685,025 | 0.66x | $1,040,000 | $221,602 | $147,184 | yes |
| O | $87,300,000 | $83,450,685 | 0.96x | $93,246,344 | $2,051,893 | $714,432 | yes |
| STONK | $19,665,691 | $60,776,235 | **3.09x NEW HIGH** | **$60,776,235** | $3,277,519 | $18,491,442 | yes |
| COMMOTITTES | $218,606 | $59,953 | **0.27x** | $416,137 (ATH 5 Sep 06:57) | $23,353 | $1,112,875 | yes |
| RAM satellite, auth row | see note | $6,307,711 | not scored | n/a | $996,589 | $2,175,768 | yes |

**No row dead. NO NEW FALSIFIER FIRED. No row closed. 0 closed rows of the 15 [[base-rates]] requires.**

### THE RUN IN ONE LINE: the three positive calls all printed new highs on the same day
PONS +46.30% h24, PAIR +137% h24, STONK +156% h24. **All three are new highs and all three are the verdicts that were not a NO.** Chain-wide risk-on: RH chain fees24h $21,335,628, Pons V2 revenue at an ATH. **This is one day, at day 2 to day 4 on two of the three rows. Rule 1 of [[base-rates]] applies and it now cuts in the flattering direction as well as the punishing one.**

### mc_7d marks, written at day 6 inside the +/-1 day window
Exact-day print is 7 Sep; refresh then. **SCL $16,367 · BOW $7,830,883 · DICE $297,503 · BACKED $891,396 · RAM hub 2nd pass FDV $28,508,103 · RAM hub 4th pass FDV $28,508,103 · ARC $6,272.** RIPE 8 Sep; the five 2 Sep tokens 9 Sep; STONK 11 Sep.

### The two rows closest to dead, sixth day, still not closed
- **ARC** liq $7,306 (**1.46x** the $5,000 floor, from 1.74x), vol24 $822 (**1.64x** the $500 floor, from 4.7x). h24 -26.77%, buys/sells h24 3/17, h1 0/0. Closest any row has been. Distance, not forecast
- **SCL** liq $12,809 (2.56x), vol24 $1,648 (3.30x, from 11.9x). h24 **+14.71%** on 14.71% on 7 buys against 19 sells: the price rose on almost no turnover. 0.057x, still the best NO in the book, right by 17.6x

### PONS `0x39dbed3a2bd333467115de45665cc57f813c4571` — 2.41x
- mc **$664,700,596**, price $0.9450, h24 **+46.30%**, h1 buys/sells 1,039/310. liq $24.54M, vol24 $124.34M. Yesterday's 75/368 hourly sell skew fully reversed
- **Pons V2 $1,788,459 + Pons V1 $48,470 = $1,836,929/day, an ATH, +46.3% on yesterday.** The 5 Sep stale-series caveat resolves: the figure moved, so yesterday's identical print was the stale one
- run-rate cap/rev **0.99x**, unchanged while the cap rose 47%, because revenue rose the same. Falsifier 1 is 3.7x away

### PAIR `0x6b1d42927B1a84eC28Fa88d4fC6FA7AF404966be` — 3.38x, largest gain in the book
- mc **$16,544,101**. h24 **+137%**, h1 +10.38% with buys/sells 63/21. liq $1,784,752 (was $888,141), vol24 $8,835,895
- **Falsifier 2 cannot fire on the volume leg for a second day: $8.84M against the $5M threshold.** The netflow leg is unread for a fourth run; both due 9 Sep
- DefiLlama books PAIR at $14,358/day of revenue, so run-rate cap/rev is **3,157x**. **The 3.38x is a price move, not a revenue re-rating**

### STONK `6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx` — 3.09x at day 2
- mc **$60,776,235**, h24 **+156%**, h1 buys/sells 237/318. liq $3,277,519, vol24 $18,491,442
- **falsifier 1 moved away from the line: Llama advanced a day to 3 Sep at $48,480 and the 7-day average is $38,841/day** (28 Aug to 3 Sep: 31,873 / 22,832 / 35,806 / 49,760 / 45,538 / 37,598 / 48,480), up from $31,915. Threshold $25,000/day, so 1.55x clear
- **falsifier 3 NOT fired, burn accelerated: supply 882,574,927.885, down 3,650,052 in a day. 117,425,072 burned = 11.74%**, up from 11.38%
- falsifier 2 (LaunchLab take rate) not evaluable, migration unshipped
- **At $60.8M the case that justified the 4 Sep BUY is materially weaker: 7d annualised revenue $14.18M against a $60.78M cap = 4.29x versus 1.60x at screen, and the ANSEM comp gap has closed from 13x to about 4x. Mark this row RE-SCREEN, not upgrade**

### BOW `0x451b42A15100C340CA12F7c66DE06fac5EA2D751`
- mc $7,830,883 = 1.01x, h24 -1.06%, h1 buys/sells 54/57. liq $516,845, vol24 $2,125,326
- **falsifier 3 stays FIRED and worsened: disabled markets 93.15% of borrowing** ($425,759 of $457,081 across 56 markets), up from 91.50%. **wsNET-NN `0xaa586d26a6fe62d9c0f0948fede6e2130500ac7a655587447e2d4a37e6330589` alone $376,611 = 82.39% of the book against a 2,000 USDG cap, a 188x breach.** PONS `0xaba3ac501ce4c6b80c08ed0dba19e1ac0de495f17af3ed692a38e92d176a6c9e` $46,808 = 10.24%
- **falsifier 1 NOT fired, fifth unchanged read: rewardRate() raw 3,064,092,381,749,161,300,668 = 0.003064 USDG/sec = $264.73/day. periodFinish 1788858349 = 8 Sep 2026 09:05 UTC, TWO DAYS OUT. Closest scheduled falsifier in the book: it fires on the calendar if the period is not refunded**
- /api/stats: totalSupplied **$958,639**, totalBorrowed **$457,080**, utilisation **87.36%**, openInterest $1,554,844, marketCount 56, **depositorCount 42** (screen 25, yesterday 39). FULL-upgrade trigger still two of three legs; depositors 42 versus 100 is the gap

### RAM, hub `0x555570a286F15EbDFE42B66eDE2f724Aa1AB5555`
- FDV **$28,508,103 = 1.05x** against the 4th-pass screen, price $0.1008 to **$0.1197**, h24 +18.55%. **The NO went behind again after one day ahead. Series 1.64x, 1.20x, 1.18x, 0.88x, 1.05x**
- DexScreener mc field on a circulating basis ($9,441,367) for a second day; price ratio 1.044x agrees with FDV ratio 1.050x, basis stable
- balances: totalSupply **238,137,343.887** (-13,748, third decline) · xRAM vault `0xae6d5fce541216bda471d311425b5412d9f1deb9` **159,270,572.204** (-4,227, draining near zero) · lockbox `0xe1c39b767e968a57af2ecad2f5b09ee2e7874d9f` **51,161,545.023** (+1,636,040, yesterday's first reverse bridge reversed again, supply flowing back out to the satellite) · deployer `0x20d630cf1f5628285bfb91dfac8c89eb9087be1a` **15,524,535.216, UP +982,907, second consecutive day accumulating and 7.7x yesterday's rate.** The 31 Aug finding was a deployer distributing into an announcement; it is now accumulating into a bounce
- free float **63,342,236 RAM, $7.58M at $0.1197.** Falsifier 4 (circulating above 80M) NOT fired
- falsifier 1 not fired: chain fees24h **$21,335,628**. Falsifier 2 not fired: Ramses CL V2 $102,265 + DLMM $7,146 + Legacy V2 $302 = **$109,713/day**, 3.7x the $30k floor, down from $133,454. **Share of chain fees 0.51%**, down from 0.63%, moving away from the 1.5% buy leg
- falsifier 3 permanently resolved against firing: r33 `0x4e5195469A0360f5dfe811730C9CCaCFF0a0FeeE` burned **2,016,625**, totalSupply 11,164,093.58, **burn share 18.06%**
- **RAM at 0xdEaD = 0.0, seventh consecutive read**

### RIPE `0x4D3f37a965b21aB4122e92Dd41D2693E742c883b` (RH) + `0x2a0a59d6b975828e781ecac125dba40d7ee5ddc0` (Base)
- **0.31x at day 5, the widest the SELL has been right.** RH $1.68 to **$1.44** (h24 -15.62%), Base $1.46
- minted supply on chain: RH **310,122.849** + Base **10,244,635.454** = **10,554,758.303 RIPE**, real cap **$15,198,852**. **Supply +3,944 against a -16% price, sixth consecutive day of emission running regardless of price**
- **REVERSAL TRIGGER 3 IS IN RANGE, the state change of the run. Band $0.57 to $1.44; RH price is exactly $1.44**, from 16.7% above yesterday. **Not a buy: the second condition (farm collateral intact) has never been measured and trigger 1 is still dead. In-range and unresolved**
- **TRIGGER 1 NOT FIRED, sixth read. Endaoment `0x9f20f25f037046721a292b19a486932ef390eaf9` holds 0 RIPE.** Never collected anything
- TRIGGER 2: **GREEN outstanding 674,850.65** (RH `0x355bb7f0f6c730e4460d620420a300fa08ff82f3` 262,169.49 + Base `0xd1eac76497d06cf15475a5e3984d5bc03de7c707` 412,681.16), +1.7%, **13.5% of the $5M threshold**, second consecutive rise
- Gate 1 coverage still not re-measured, four days stale

### BACKED `0x7168563B0E70124f0C7c0cF2F13a8D1861BAf4A5`
- mc $891,396 = 0.85x, h24 **+10.60%**, buys/sells h24 164/133. liq $186,520. max_mc_since stays $1,288,548
- **totalSupply 944,136,618.4608119, IDENTICAL for a fourth read. Zero redemption** at ~5x the redeemable floor
- **falsifier 1 NOT fired but it is the leg to watch: vol24 $83,113, down 46% and the lowest of the series** ($213,383 / $154,603 / $83,113). Threshold is a 7-day average under $50,000/day; today is 1.66x above, three-day average $150,366. At the 3% tax today sends roughly $2,490 to the vault
- **FALSIFIER 3, DAY 6 OF 14.** DENAR `0x3786728a2c49C4617Bf4FE5BD82b90B6B0dF5508` mc **$1,034,835** against BACKED $891,396. **DENAR still above, gap 1.16x from 1.20x.** Counter continues
- falsifier 2 unmeasurable, sixth run: the seven StockVault stock-token addresses are still not recorded anywhere in memory. **Record them or delete the leg; as written it cannot be evaluated on 30 Sep**

### DICE `0x3F9f0b6073Ee8c495Aed96869AF31850fED40FeB`
- mc $297,503 = **0.38x**, h24 **-43.17%**, buys/sells h24 621/712. liq $66,346, vol24 $228,316. Round-tripped the announcement pump
- **falsifier 2 on track: DiceStake `0xc091ce59cAC1112A30e4344ced039c25B6cfa174` holds 1,361,150 DICE, exactly the screen figure for a sixth day.** Threshold under 10,000,000 on 21 Sep
- **falsifier 3: fee EOA `0x4acd2c88a239a924e47fc4995114ca1bb0ca3cad` holds 0 DICE, 0xdEaD holds 26,010,572.539, exactly the screen figure. No new burn.** Distinguishing "no tranche" from "tranche forwarded" still needs a transfer-log read, which needs Dune

### The four other 2 Sep tokens, day 4
- **SLVR `0x791229E3EbD6CFdC3D8157f48722684173C29aD9` 0.58x**, mc $1,716,244, price $73.26. h24 -9.94%, **h1 -21.14%**, buys/sells h24 847/356. **FALSIFIER 1 IS 0.15% FROM FIRING: revenue $40,060/day against a threshold of under $40,000/day by 9 Sep.** Second consecutive fall: $78,089, $54,386, $40,060. **Net emission crossed 1.0 for the first time: ~565.7 SLVR/day at $73.26 = $41,444/day against $40,060 of revenue = 1.03x**, under the 1.5x leg but the 2 Sep PROBE gate ("revenue clearing net emission") is now failed. Emission schedule still unread on chain, fifth run
- **UP: revenue $58,876/day** (up v3 $57,634 + up v2 $1,242), down from $95,348. **Falsifier 2 counter = DAY 1 of 3.** Reset yesterday, restarted today. Counter state recorded explicitly per the 5 Sep note
- **O `0x182fa643e5f29d5eca75e7b9cf9336a3fe4620b2` 0.96x**, mc $83,450,685, FDV $521,566,780, h24 -4.66%. **o1 Launchpad revenue $117,975/day, identical to yesterday to the dollar while Pons V2 moved 46%. Treat as a stale Llama print.** Falsifier 3 not fired. The NO went ahead for the first time
- **RVH `0x96765066f6a040a21EB027167D2315B707c82633` 0.66x**, mc $685,025, h24 +39.75% on the same chain-wide bid. The "next 1000x" call is still 0.66x at day 4

### COMMOTITTES `0xF9E04be607E30020526E6Bbb45E5b754aAb888E3`, day 1 after the same-day SELL
- mc **$59,953 = 0.27x** and **-85.6% off the $416,137 ATH**. The 5 Sep SELL at $124,414 is right by a further 2.08x
- liq $23,353, vol24 $1,112,875, h24 buys/sells 4,089/3,483, h6 **+46.28%** off a lower low
- **THE VAULT ROSE AGAIN AND STILL MEANS NOTHING: GLD 19.766 ($8,072 at $408.33) + SLV 134.270 ($8,065 at $60.056) = $16,136**, from $14,418. Backing is **26.9% of market cap**, up from 11.6%, entirely because the denominator fell. **Second live confirmation: price a mechanical floor as a floor, never as a trend**

## STEP 2 COULD NOT RUN, 6 Sep 2026. **DUNE IS OUT OF QUOTA.**
- PATCH of standing query 8562361 succeeded. Execution `01M1T48VRDC7MY01JZZFN9HMDS` ran 37 seconds and returned **`FAILED_TYPE_RESOURCES_CAP_REACHED`**, "exceeded the user defined maximum amount of resources", 1.68 credits consumed
- SQL then narrowed (funding and relay scans bounded to 90 days, freshness and v4.fun launch counters folded in as a `union all` per the 5 Sep standard shape) and re-executed twice. Both refused before running: **`This api request would exceed your configured datapoint limit per billing cycle`**
- **Account-level billing limit, not a query bug.** No new deployer, funder or repeat-operator check ran. `/results` returns "no execution found for the latest version of the given query", so there is no cached row set to fall back on
- **CONSEQUENCE: SCL falsifier 2 (holder count), DICE falsifier 3 (transfer-log read) and the holder-count gap were all to be closed by the single `robinhood.logs` query flagged on 5 Sep as the highest-value unrun query. Frozen until the limit is raised.** Six runs owed
- **ACTION FOR BEN: raise the datapoint limit in Dune subscription settings, or the operator graph and three falsifier legs stay frozen.** DexScreener, the RPCs, DefiLlama and longbow all answered normally

## Standing notes added 6 Sep 2026
- **Rule 1 of [[base-rates]] cuts both ways, and today is the proof.** Three rows printed new highs on one chain-wide risk-on day, two of them at day 2 to day 4. The file has been disciplined about not reading a falling day-1 print as vindication; **apply the same discipline to a rising one and do not let a green day promote a verdict**
- **Separate the price move from the revenue re-rating in the same sentence, every time.** PAIR is 3.38x on a run-rate cap/revenue of 3,157x. Without the second number the row reads as a fundamentals call that was never made
- **A verdict is priced at the cap it was written at.** STONK's BUY was written at $19.67M and the row is now $60.78M. **Carrying a verdict forward without re-pricing it is how a screen log turns into a scoreboard for a position.** Re-screen, not upgrade
- **A near-miss falsifier needs its distance recorded, not just fired or not fired.** SLVR sits 0.15% from firing and BOW's periodFinish is 48 hours out. Both read as "not fired" in a binary column and both are the most likely to change the book this week

## ⚠ CORRECTION to this file's own 6 Sep run, made later the same day. THE REVENUE/DAY FIGURES ABOVE ARE PARTIAL-DAY PRINTS.
**DefiLlama's `summary/fees/{slug}` daily series carries a FINAL ROW THAT IS A ROLLING 24h WINDOW, not a complete day. It equals `total24h` exactly. Reading it as "yesterday's revenue" understates a growing protocol by 30-60%.** Verified 6 Sep: Pons V2's final row printed $59,970 against $1,836,929 the day before, which is a partial-day artifact, not a 97% collapse.
**STANDING RULE, add to every revenue read: drop the last row of any DefiLlama daily series before averaging, exactly as the last (partial) UTC day is dropped from OHLCV.**
Two falsifier legs in the table above are affected and neither should be scored on the number printed:
- **SLVR falsifier 1 is NOT 0.15% from firing.** The $40,060/day was the rolling partial row. **Last three COMPLETE days average $68,974/day**, 1.72x the $40,000 threshold, and the trend against the prior seven days is **2.41x, rising**. Independently confirmed on chain: `SlvrVoteEscrowStaking 0xaf68598ebd245dc3cb92ff16e9ba1814dd137200` distributed **16.005 ETH in the last 24h** (topic `0x04944120d2e185fc95ba63f3ca24c385ec4c5215a801c8766c96486d7fc4ed8e`, 1,005 events) = roughly $39-40k/day at spot, versus 11.9965 ETH on 31 Aug. Revenue is UP, not down.
- **UP's $58,876/day was the same artifact. Last three complete days average $96,839/day, 1.37x the prior week.** The 1 Sep peak of $150,880 has not been retaken, so "below peak" is right and "rolling over" is wrong. Falsifier 2 counter should NOT have been reset on this print; re-read on complete days before advancing it.

### SLVR: Ben's own 7 Sep confirmation check, run a day early on chain
`SlvrGridLottery 0xa1e5213505772b195fd7ae3b4a6b27b58cf72a3d`, BetPlaced topic `0xd60a2fc8819207eb21f78d0ae6d3c0a97cc7a3e76eb20e4d8c3049023f9da306`, bettor is topic[2].
- **6h window: 2,516 bets, 40.73 ETH wagered, 29 UNIQUE BETTORS.** Series 28 (T-14d) / 33 (T-7d) / 28 (T-3d) / 33 (31 Aug) / **29 (6 Sep)**.
- **CONFIRMATION TRIGGER ("bettors above ~60 in a 6h window") NOT HIT, and it has not moved in three weeks while the wager tripled.**
- **CONFIRMATION 2 ("staker distributions above $25,000/day through 7 Sep") HIT** at ~$39-40k/day.
- Concentration: top 1 **21.9%**, top 5 **59.1%**, top 10 82.6% of the 6h wager. Disqualifier threshold is top-5 above 65%: **not fired, 5.9 points away, and moving toward it** (was 50.3% on 31 Aug).
- Verdict unchanged: revenue is real and rising, the customer base is about thirty wallets, and supply still inflates ~2.6%/day. Cheap on a denominator that grows while you hold.

---

## CONTINUED IN [[screen-log-outcomes-5]] FROM 7 SEP 2026
This file hit the 32KB cap on the 7 Sep append. Runs from 7 Sep 2026 onward are in [[screen-log-outcomes-5]]. **Read both.**
Headlines of the 7 Sep run, recorded here so they are not missed by anyone reading only this file: **ARC `0xce845443428867d271929bd739148B85524B536a` CLOSED as DEAD at vol24 $56.59, outcome right, 0.018x, the first closed row in the book.** **STONK is 9.01x at $177,255,027 and its thesis has inverted (12.5x cap/revenue against 1.60x at screen), so it is marked RE-SCREEN, not upgrade.** **BOW's periodFinish falsifier fires on the calendar at 8 Sep 2026 09:05:49 UTC unless the reward period is refunded.** **Dune out of quota for a second consecutive run; the repeat-operator check did not execute.**