---
name: screen-log-outcomes-5
description: Continuation of [[screen-log-outcomes-4]] from 7 Sep 2026, after that file neared the 32KB cap. Daily scoring of every open row in [[screen-log]] and [[screen-log-2]] — multiples, mc_7d/30d/90d marks, falsifier checks, corrections, row closures.
sources: [cowork]
aliases: [outcome-updates-5, scoring-log-5]
---

# Screen log outcomes, part 5 (from 7 Sep 2026)

Rules, dead thresholds and the runs of 1 to 6 Sep 2026 are in [[screen-log-outcomes]], [[screen-log-outcomes-2]], [[screen-log-outcomes-3]] and [[screen-log-outcomes-4]]. Same method: DexScreener tokens endpoint, base-token pairs only, liq and vol summed across base pairs, marketCap from the highest-liquidity pair.

---

## 7 Sep 2026, day 7 for the eight 31 Aug rows (EXACT mc_7d DAY), day 6 RIPE, day 5 the five 2 Sep tokens, day 3 STONK, day 2 COMMOTITTES

Sources: DexScreener; RH RPC `https://robinhood-rpc.publicnode.com`; HyperEVM `https://rpc.hyperliquid.xyz/evm`; Base `https://mainnet.base.org`; Solana getTokenSupply; DefiLlama summary/fees dailyRevenue + dailyFees with the last (partial) row dropped per the 6 Sep rule; longbow.cash /api/stats and /api/markets. **Dune unavailable for a SECOND consecutive run, same 402 datapoint-limit refusal.**

**METHOD NOTE, cost 20 minutes this run: DexScreener and both EVM RPCs now 403 a bare urllib request. They answer normally with a `User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0` header. HyperEVM does not require it, RH and Base do. Send the UA on every HTTP call from the container from now on.**

| Ticker | mc_screen | mc_now | multiple | max_mc_since | liq | vol24 | alive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCL | $287,730 | $12,030 | **0.042x** | $287,730 | $10,480 | $1,334 | yes |
| BOW | $7,747,316 | $9,211,595 | **1.19x NEW HIGH** | **$9,211,595** | $590,024 | $1,955,580 | yes |
| DICE | $778,508 | $275,710 | 0.35x | $778,508 | $65,471 | $146,796 | yes |
| BACKED | $1,053,287 | $994,247 | 0.94x | $1,288,548 | $199,206 | $92,255 | yes |
| RAM hub, 2nd pass (FDV) | $28,023,821 | $23,172,549 | 0.83x | $44,507,209 | $1,082,493 | $702,014 | yes |
| RAM hub, 4th pass (FDV) | $27,159,358 | $23,172,549 | 0.85x | $44,507,209 | $1,082,493 | $702,014 | yes |
| ARC | $342,605 | $6,081 | **0.018x** | $546,291 | $7,195 | **$57** | **DEAD, CLOSED** |
| RIPE (cross-chain minted x price) | $48,300,000 | $12,564,773 | **0.26x** | $115,472,589 | $120,683 (RH) | $19,491 (RH) | yes |
| PONS | $275,600,000 | $571,243,598 | 2.07x | $664,700,596 | $25,093,143 | $156,550,617 | yes |
| PAIR | $4,900,000 | $23,672,667 | **4.83x NEW HIGH** | **$23,672,667** | $2,103,504 | $31,154,619 | yes |
| SLVR | $2,984,003 | $2,149,411 | 0.72x | $2,984,003 | $199,099 | $379,973 | yes |
| RVH | $1,040,000 | $527,742 | 0.51x | $1,040,000 | $204,719 | $146,580 | yes |
| O | $87,300,000 | $84,910,552 | 0.97x | $93,246,344 | $2,008,833 | $734,047 | yes |
| STONK | $19,665,691 | $177,255,027 | **9.01x NEW HIGH** | **$177,255,027** | $6,666,579 | $101,144,288 | yes |
| COMMOTITTES | $218,606 | $19,433 | **0.089x** | $416,137 | $13,082 | $81,745 | yes |
| RAM satellite, auth row | see note | $7,925,259 | not scored | n/a | $719,314 | $2,285,714 | yes |

### mc_7d WRITTEN, exact day (screens dated 31 Aug 2026, today is 7 Sep)
**SCL $12,030 · BOW $9,211,595 · DICE $275,710 · BACKED $994,247 · RAM hub 2nd pass FDV $23,172,549 · RAM hub 4th pass FDV $23,172,549 · ARC $6,081.** These supersede the 6 Sep day-6 provisional marks. RIPE mc_7d due 8 Sep; the five 2 Sep tokens 9 Sep; STONK 11 Sep; COMMOTITTES 12 Sep.

### ROW CLOSED: ARC `0xce845443428867d271929bd739148B85524B536a` is DEAD
- **vol24 $56.59 against the $500 floor. First row in the book to hit a dead threshold.** liq $7,195 is still 1.44x above the $5,000 floor, so the volume leg closed it, not liquidity
- h24 buys/sells **0 / 9**, h1 0/0. Zero buys in 24 hours, not merely in 5 minutes
- **OUTCOME: right.** Verdict was NO at $342,605 on 31 Aug; it is $6,081 seven days later, **0.018x, a 56x avoidance**. Falsifier 2 (liquidity below $30,000) fired 2 Sep at $27,567 and the row fell for five more days
- mc_screen to max_mc_since = $546,291 / $342,605 = **1.59x**: the NO gave up a theoretical 1.59x and avoided a 98.2% loss
- **Closed row #1 of the 15 [[base-rates]] needs. Closure basis: dead-threshold at day 7, NOT calendar. Record the basis in the base-rate table or time-to-resolution will be understated**

### THE RUN IN ONE LINE: STONK went vertical and the verdict is now 9x away from the cap it was written at
- **STONK `6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx` mc $177,255,027, +198% h24, vol24 $101,144,288, liq $6,666,579.** The 4 Sep BUY was written at $19,665,691
- **falsifier 1 nowhere near: last 7 COMPLETE Llama days 31,873 / 22,832 / 35,806 / 49,760 / 45,538 / 37,598 / 48,480 = $38,841/day average, 1.55x the $25,000 threshold.** The rolling partial row prints **$110,870**, 2.29x the last complete day, so revenue is spiking with the price, but per the 6 Sep rule that number is not scoreable yet
- **falsifier 3 NOT fired, burn accelerating: supply 876,022,432.257, down 6,552,496 in a day (yesterday 3,650,052). 123,977,568 burned = 12.40%**, from 11.74%
- falsifier 2 (LaunchLab take rate) still not evaluable, migration unshipped
- **THE VALUATION HAS INVERTED AGAINST THE THESIS. At $177.26M on $38,841/day of complete-day revenue the multiple is 12.5x, against 1.60x at screen. Even on the spiking partial row ($110,870/day = $40.5M/yr) it is 4.38x.** The ANSEM comp that carried the 4 Sep upgrade (STONK earning more at 13x less cap) is **fully closed and inverted**: ANSEM.io was $259M on $210,456 of 7d revenue; STONK is now $177M on $271,887 of 7d revenue, the same price, not a 13x discount
- **MARK: the BUY is 9.01x right and the reason it was bought no longer exists. Re-screen from scratch at this cap; do not carry the verdict.** Second consecutive day marked re-screen, and the gap widened 3x in that day

### BACKED `0x7168563B0E70124f0C7c0cF2F13a8D1861BAf4A5` — THE FIRST REDEMPTION IN THE SERIES
- **totalSupply 941,671,839.8857391, DOWN 2,464,778.575 in one day.** Four prior reads were identical at 944,136,618.4608119. **5.833% of supply now redeemed and burned, from 5.586%.** Someone exercised the floor for the first time since the screen
- mc $994,247 = 0.94x, h24 +9.75%, buys/sells h24 121/124. liq $199,206
- **falsifier 1 NOT fired and it recovered: vol24 $92,255, up 11% from the $83,113 low.** Threshold is a 7-day average under $50,000/day; three-day average $110,007. At the 3% tax today sends roughly $2,768 to the vault
- **FALSIFIER 3, DAY 7 OF 14, AND THE GAP WIDENED SHARPLY.** DENAR `0x3786728a2c49C4617Bf4FE5BD82b90B6B0dF5508` mc **$1,752,469** (+78.08% h24, liq $163,496, vol24 $300,999) against BACKED $994,247. **Gap 1.76x, from 1.16x yesterday.** Halfway through the counter and moving the wrong way fast
- falsifier 2 unmeasurable, seventh run. **The seven StockVault stock-token addresses are still not recorded. Record them or delete the leg** — seventh consecutive run this note has been written

### BOW `0x451b42A15100C340CA12F7c66DE06fac5EA2D751` — 1.19x, NEW HIGH, and the closest falsifier in the book is 32 hours out
- mc **$9,211,595**, h24 **+18.19%**, h1 buys/sells 13/13, h24 910/901. liq $590,024, vol24 $1,955,580. First new high since the 31 Aug screen
- **falsifier 1 NOT fired, sixth unchanged read: rewardRate() raw 3,064,092,381,749,161,300,668 = 0.003064 USDG/sec = $264.73/day, identical. periodFinish 1788858349 = 8 Sep 2026 09:05:49 UTC, roughly 32 hours away.** It fires on the calendar if the period is not refunded. **Single most likely book change in the next 48 hours; check it first next run**
- **falsifier 3 stays FIRED and worsened again: disabled markets 95.12% of borrowing** ($409,548 of $430,578 across 55 markets), from 93.15%. **wsNET-NN `0xaa586d26a6fe62d9c0f0948fede6e2130500ac7a655587447e2d4a37e6330589` alone $358,116 = 83.17% against a 2,000 USDG cap, a 179x breach.** PONS `0xaba3ac501ce4c6b80c08ed0dba19e1ac0de495f17af3ed692a38e92d176a6c9e` $48,942 = 11.37%
- /api/stats: totalSupplied **$955,985**, totalBorrowed **$430,578** (from $457,080), utilisation **81.86%**, openInterest $1,463,092, marketCount 55, **depositorCount 44** (screen 25, yesterday 42). bowStaked 135,680,616.227. **Falsifier 2 is 14 days out; depositors 44 versus 100 is the binding leg**

### RAM, hub `0x555570a286F15EbDFE42B66eDE2f724Aa1AB5555`
- FDV **$23,172,549 = 0.85x** against the 4th-pass screen, price $0.1197 to **$0.09731**, h24 **-18.72%**. **The NO is ahead again. Series 1.64x, 1.20x, 1.18x, 0.88x, 1.05x, 0.85x**
- balances: totalSupply **238,120,893.889** (-16,450, fourth decline) · xRAM vault `0xae6d5fce541216bda471d311425b5412d9f1deb9` **159,284,902.176, UP +14,330, THE FIRST RISE IN THE SERIES** after days of draining · lockbox `0xe1c39b767e968a57af2ecad2f5b09ee2e7874d9f` **51,676,051.379** (+514,506, still bridging out to the satellite) · deployer `0x20d630cf1f5628285bfb91dfac8c89eb9087be1a` **15,619,152.596, UP +94,617, THIRD consecutive day accumulating**, at a tenth of yesterday's rate
- **The xRAM vault turning net-positive is leg 1 of the "WHAT WOULD FLIP IT" condition (vault net flow positive for 7 straight days). Day 1 of 7.** The other two legs, price back to $0.04 to $0.06 and the deployer stopping, both still fail, and the deployer leg fails in the opposite direction to the 31 Aug finding: it is buying, not distributing
- falsifier 1 not fired: RH chain fees24h **$18,621,632** versus a $6M floor
- **falsifier 2 not fired, and the number needed correcting.** Read on **dailyFees with the chain breakdown**, not dailyRevenue: last complete day 5 Sep, Ramses on Robinhood Chain **CL V2 $101,986 + DLMM $6,548 + Legacy V2 $285 = $108,819/day**, 3.6x the $30,000 floor. Series 1 to 5 Sep: 172,014 / 130,820 / 103,074 / 130,379 / 108,819. **Share of chain fees 0.58%**, still far from the 1.5% buy leg
- falsifier 3 permanently resolved against firing: r33 `0x4e5195469A0360f5dfe811730C9CCaCFF0a0FeeE` burned **2,066,620**, totalSupply 11,281,782.533, **burn share 18.32%**
- falsifier 4 (circulating above 80M) NOT fired: free float **62,943,090 RAM**
- **RAM at 0xdEaD = 0.0, eighth consecutive read.** The Sarcophagus still buys r33, never RAM

### RIPE `0x4D3f37a965b21aB4122e92Dd41D2693E742c883b` (RH) + `0x2a0a59d6b975828e781ecac125dba40d7ee5ddc0` (Base)
- **0.26x at day 6, the widest the SELL has been right.** RH price $1.44 to **$1.19** (h24 -17.42%), Base $1.19. **DexScreener prints $369,533 on RH and $12,276,555 on Base; neither is the cap** — the row is scored on cross-chain minted supply as always
- minted on chain: RH **310,734.357** (+612) + Base **10,247,898.433** (+3,263) = **10,558,633 RIPE**, real cap **$12,564,773**. **Seventh consecutive day of emission running regardless of a -17% price**
- **REVERSAL TRIGGER 3 NOW SITS MID-BAND, not at its edge. Band $0.57 to $1.44; price $1.19.** Still not a buy: the farm-collateral condition has never been measured and trigger 1 is dead
- **TRIGGER 1 NOT FIRED, seventh read. Endaoment `0x9f20f25f037046721a292b19a486932ef390eaf9` holds 0 RIPE**
- **TRIGGER 2 REVERSED: GREEN outstanding 625,414.56** (RH `0x355bb7f0f6c730e4460d620420a300fa08ff82f3` 238,050.67 + Base `0xd1eac76497d06cf15475a5e3984d5bc03de7c707` 387,363.89), **down 7.3% from 674,850.65 after two consecutive rises. 12.5% of the $5M threshold.** The loan book is shrinking
- Gate 1 coverage still not re-measured, five days stale

### DICE `0x3F9f0b6073Ee8c495Aed96869AF31850fED40FeB`
- mc $275,710 = **0.35x**, h24 -7.89% with h1 **+22.56%**, buys/sells h24 641/704. liq $65,471, vol24 $146,796
- **falsifier 2 on track: DiceStake `0xc091ce59cAC1112A30e4344ced039c25B6cfa174` holds 1,361,150 DICE, exactly the screen figure for a SEVENTH day.** Threshold under 10,000,000 on 21 Sep, 14 days out, and the balance has not moved once since 31 Aug
- **falsifier 3: fee EOA `0x4acd2c88a239a924e47fc4995114ca1bb0ca3cad` holds 0 DICE, 0xdEaD holds 26,010,572.539, both exactly the screen figures. No new burn, no new tranche.** Separating "no tranche" from "tranche forwarded" still needs the transfer-log read, still needs Dune, seventh run owed

### SCL `0xBe92b334E045Bbfd292a28e54f8C75aF2FC07bBE` — 0.042x, still the best NO in the book
- mc $12,030, h24 **-27.65%** on **2 buys against 16 sells**, h1 0/0. liq $10,480 (2.10x the $5,000 floor, from 2.56x), vol24 $1,334 (2.67x the $500 floor, from 3.30x)
- **Right by 23.9x. Both dead legs tightened again; on this trajectory SCL is the next row to close, and it will close the way ARC did, on volume before liquidity**
- falsifier 2 (holders below 686) unmeasurable for a seventh run, needs Dune

### The four other 2 Sep tokens, day 5
- **SLVR `0x791229E3EbD6CFdC3D8157f48722684173C29aD9` 0.72x**, mc $2,149,411, price $88.24, h24 **+20.04%**, h6 +24.68%, buys/sells h24 **833/296**, the strongest buy skew in the book. liq $199,099, vol24 $379,973
- **SLVR falsifier 1 NOT fired, on complete days only: last three 77,671 / 76,068 / 53,183 = $68,974/day, 1.72x the $40,000 threshold with two days to the 9 Sep test.** The partial rolling row prints $40,857 and must not be scored, exactly the artifact the 6 Sep correction named. **Trend is down three days running, so the 9 Sep test is live**
- **SLVR net emission flipped back below revenue: ~565.7 SLVR/day at $88.24 = $49,917/day against $53,183 of last-complete-day revenue = 0.94x.** The 2 Sep PROBE gate ("revenue clearing net emission") passes again after failing yesterday, but on a price that rose 20%, so the flip is a numerator move, not a mechanism change. Emission schedule still unread on chain, sixth run
- **UP: last three COMPLETE days 111,185 / 86,660 / 92,672 (up v3 + up v2). Falsifier 2 counter = 0 of 3**, all three above the $80,000 threshold. The partial row prints $58,798 and is again the artifact; **do not advance the counter on it, third run in a row this trap has appeared**
- **O `0x182fa643e5f29d5eca75e7b9cf9336a3fe4620b2` 0.97x**, mc $84,910,552, FDV $530,690,948, h24 +1.75%, buys/sells h24 **765/1,512**. o1 Launchpad last complete day **$155,067**, so yesterday's identical-to-the-dollar print was indeed stale. Falsifier 3 (on-chain buyback of O from pad fees) not fired
- **RVH `0x96765066f6a040a21EB027167D2315B707c82633` 0.51x**, mc $527,742, h24 **-22.90%**, giving back yesterday's +39.75%. The "next 1000x" call is 0.51x at day 5

### PONS `0x39dbed3a2bd333467115de45665cc57f813c4571` — 2.07x
- mc **$571,243,598**, price $0.8137, h24 **-14.02%** off yesterday's high, h24 buys/sells 6,496/4,843. liq $25,093,143, vol24 $156,550,617. max_mc_since stays $664,700,596
- **falsifier 1 nowhere near: last complete day Pons V1+V2 $1,836,929, 3.7x the $500,000 threshold.** The rolling partial rows (V2 $1,788,459, V1 $59,970) are the artifact again
- run-rate cap/rev **0.85x**, cheaper than yesterday's 0.99x because the cap fell 14% while revenue held

### PAIR `0x6b1d42927B1a84eC28Fa88d4fC6FA7AF404966be` — 4.83x, largest gain in the book
- mc **$23,672,667**, h24 **+37.77%** but **h1 -13.96%** and m5 -6.24%, so the move is rolling over intraday. liq $2,103,504, vol24 **$31,154,619**
- **Falsifier 2 cannot fire on the volume leg for a third day: $31.15M against the $5M threshold, and volume tripled again.** The netflow leg is unread for a fifth run; both due 9 Sep
- **Separate the price move from the revenue: the DefiLlama `pair-fund` slug does not resolve, so run-rate cap/rev is unread today. Yesterday's $14,358/day put it at 3,157x; at $23.67M that would be 4,517x. The 4.83x remains a price move, not a revenue re-rating**

### COMMOTITTES `0xF9E04be607E30020526E6Bbb45E5b754aAb888E3`, day 2 after the same-day SELL
- mc **$19,433 = 0.089x** and **-95.3% off the $416,137 ATH**. h24 **-64.88%**, h6 -20.61%, buys/sells h24 298/347. The 5 Sep SELL at $124,414 is right by a further 6.4x
- liq $13,082 (2.62x the floor), **vol24 $81,745, down 93% from $1,112,875.** Volume is the leg that will kill this row, same as ARC
- **THE VAULT ROSE A THIRD TIME AND THE RATIO IS NOW ABSURD: GLD 20.6018 ($8,482 at $411.72) + SLV 139.979 ($8,354 at $59.68) = $16,836**, from $16,136. **Backing is 86.6% of market cap, from 26.9%, from 11.6%, from 4.69% at screen.** The numerator added $700, the denominator fell 68%
- **falsifier 1 is firing one leg at a time: "backing ratio stops rising because volume dies". The ratio is still rising, but volume fell 93% in a day, so the vault added $700 against $16,000 of accumulated backing.** At this volume the floor compounds at roughly $1,400/day: the mechanism is not dead, it is starved. **Call it next run: if vol24 stays under $100,000 the leg fires**
- **THIRD live confirmation of the standing lesson: a mechanical floor rising as a percentage while the price collapses is a denominator artifact.** 86.6% backing on a token down 95.3% is not a floor being approached, it is a market that has stopped believing the redemption is reachable

## STEP 2 COULD NOT RUN AGAIN, 7 Sep 2026. DUNE IS STILL OUT OF QUOTA, SECOND CONSECUTIVE RUN.
- PATCH of standing query 8562361 **succeeded** (`{"query_id":8562361}`), so the API still accepts SQL writes. The 3-day v4.fun funding SQL was written in, with funding and relay scans bounded to 90 days per the 6 Sep narrowing
- **POST /execute refused before running: HTTP 402, `This api request would exceed your configured datapoint limit per billing cycle.`** Identical to 6 Sep
- `GET /query/8562361/results` returns `not found: No execution found for the latest version of the given query`. **No cached row set. Zero rows for a second day**
- **NOTE FOR THE NEXT SESSION: the standing query had been repointed at a Solana `coinbench holder backfill` SQL by another session before this run. It is now back on the v4.fun operator SQL. If a future run finds the operator graph reading Solana wallets, this is why. Check the query body before trusting a result set**
- **CONSEQUENCE, six-plus runs owed and one day worse than yesterday: SCL falsifier 2 (holder count), DICE falsifier 3 (fee-EOA transfer log), COMMOTITTES falsifier 3 (holders falling on two consecutive reads, which cannot even begin without a first read), and the whole repeat-operator check are all frozen**
- **ACTION FOR BEN, second day of asking: raise the datapoint limit and the per-query resource cap in Dune subscription settings.** Everything else answered normally

## Standing notes added 7 Sep 2026
- **A row can close on death long before 90 days, and the closure basis must be recorded.** ARC closed at day 7 on the volume floor. A base-rates table that mixes calendar closures and death closures without the flag will understate time-to-resolution
- **Volume kills before liquidity does, twice now.** ARC died at vol $57 with liq still 1.44x above its floor; SCL and COMMOTITTES are tracking the same way. **When a row is near dead, quote the volume ratio first**
- **The DefiLlama partial-row trap appeared on FIVE separate series this run** (Pons V1, Pons V2, SLVR, up v3, StonkFun) and would have mis-scored three falsifier legs. The 6 Sep rule held because it was applied mechanically. **Keep dropping the last row without exception; do not re-litigate it per series**
- **A verdict that is 9x right can be more wrong than when it was written.** STONK's BUY rested on a 13x comp gap that is now zero and a 1.60x multiple that is now 12.5x. **The multiple column and the thesis column are different columns; a base-rates table built on the first without the second teaches the wrong lesson.**