---
name: screen-log
description: One row per token screen, written BEFORE the verdict. Screen-time facts only. All later scoring lives in [[screen-log-outcomes]]. Condensed 2 Sep 2026 after the file hit the 32KB cap and became unwritable; put every new measurement in the outcomes file, never here. FULL — new rows go in [[screen-log-2]] from 2 Sep 2026. Read both on every screen.
sources: [cowork]
aliases: [outcome-log, screen-ledger, calibration-log]
---

# Screen log

- [stated] Ben asked for this on 31 Aug 2026: a database that logs every project screened and keeps updating itself, so calls get scored instead of forgotten.
- [stated] He agreed the operator graph is worth building and agreed base rates are the right third priority.

## Rules
1. Write the row BEFORE delivering the verdict. A row written after the fact is contaminated.
2. Never edit the screen-time columns. Only outcome columns get filled in later.
3. Log every verdict including every NO. Missed 10x cases are invisible otherwise and the screen drifts conservative.
4. Category must be one of: payout, chain-identity, meme-site, infra-operated, other. This is what feeds the multipliers.
5. Companion file [[operator-graph]] gets a row for the deployer at the same time.
6. **Added 2 Sep 2026: this file is a fixed-size ledger of screen-time facts. Every daily measurement, falsifier check and outcome narrative goes in [[screen-log-outcomes]]. A new row here should be under 2KB.**

## Columns
`date_utc | ticker | contract | chain | category | verdict | mc_screen | liq_screen | age_h | pct_off_ath | holders | trigger | falsifiers`
Outcome columns live in [[screen-log-outcomes]]: `mc_7d | mc_30d | mc_90d | max_mc_since | outcome | note`

## Log

### 2026-08-31 SCL / Scalar
- contract `0xBe92b334E045Bbfd292a28e54f8C75aF2FC07bBE` | chain robinhood | category infra-operated
- verdict at 06:00 UTC: PROBE $500 to $1,000. Verdict at 08:20 UTC: **NO**, trigger resolved against
- mc_screen $287,730 | liq_screen $75,128 (main pool $64,358, quote side 12.47 WETH) | age 35h | off ATH 51.6% (ATH $594,830 FDV, 30 Aug 22:00) | holders 686 flat
- product live but core unshipped: position manager not deployed, protocol TVL $0, fee revenue $0
- token has zero mechanical link to product: "SCL" appears 0 times on site, app and docs; no treasury, timelock, vault or staking contract in the top 50 holders
- contract clean: VerdantToken, no mint, pause, blacklist, owner or upgrade. MC == FDV, no unlock overhang
- burn decomposition: 9.209% at 0xdEaD = 8.727pp free creator allocation (cost $0) + 0.482pp real buyback (0.55 ETH, $1,340)
- dev `0x7ff83a35882436F9556c69a6c5c249d58fAC3bAB`: 9.215 ETH fees in (Dune; Blockscout undercounted at 8.9243), 8.444 ETH bridged to RelayDepository `0x4cD00E387622C35bDDB9b4c962C136462338BC31` via 4 fresh EOAs, 0.109 ETH left, first sweep at launch +29 minutes
- trigger that fired: dev bridged remaining balance and stopped buybacks
- open trigger that would reopen: positions counter on app.scalarliquidity.com goes above zero
- falsifiers: (1) dev bridges remainder and no buyback 7 days [FIRED 31 Aug 06:49] (2) holders fall below 686 while price falls (3) position manager not deployed by 30 Sep 2026
- comps at screen: TWO $2.63M, VAULT $1.36M, WTH $3.50M, INJOH $3.97M, PROLOGUE $5.98M, HOOKR $16.26M, DELTA $28.36M
- OUTCOME: pending, scored daily in [[screen-log-outcomes]]

### 2026-08-31 BOW / Longbow
- contract `0x451b42A15100C340CA12F7c66DE06fac5EA2D751` | chain robinhood | category infra-operated (secondary: payout, but the payout is funded by its own swap fees, not by the product)
- verdict at 09:25 UTC: **STARTER, 33%, capped at $8,000 to $10,000 by quote-side depth**
- mc_screen $7,747,316 | reported liq $458,085 across 10 pairs with >$1k volume | measured quote-side bid $277,250 | age 553h (first pool 8 Aug 21:00 UTC) | off ATH 16.8% (ATH $0.00931593 = $9.32M on the 30 Aug daily candle, 27h old) | holders 4,572
- vol24 $3,357,350 = 7.3x reported liquidity, 12.1x quote-side. buys/sells h24 7,923/6,275, h6 1,419/1,113, h1 413/330, m5 5/11
- PRODUCT IS REAL AND OPERATED: 50 isolated Morpho Blue markets, own Chainlink adapters and Uniswap V3 TWAP oracles deployed via MorphoChainlinkOracleV2Factory `0xB7c16F6F8cF531447Bf27Ca7220f981E79C9cdF2`, own liquidation engine, three watchdog bots reporting live in /api/health, public API at www.longbow.cash/api/{stats,markets,vaults,health}
- BUT THE BUSINESS IS TINY AND CONCENTRATED: supplied TVL $72,067.88, tvlWithCollateral $134,054.34, total borrowed $20,341.02, utilisation 33.55%, **depositorCount 25**. The PONS market `0xaba3ac501ce4c6b80c08ed0dba19e1ac0de495f17af3ed692a38e92d176a6c9e` is enabled:false with cap 0 in the interface yet holds $26,196.77 supplied and $14,592.22 borrowed, **71.7% of all borrowing on the protocol**, collateralised by a memecoin on a Uniswap V3 TWAP
- TOLL BOOTH READ OFF THE CONTRACT, not the docs: StakingRewards `0xEba502e1177f5fad9432c2deb273569D8381e01A` rewardRate() = 0.001268 USDG/sec = **$109.56/day = $39,988/yr contracted** (raw 1,267,997,775,689,893,298,709), periodFinish 2026-09-05 04:12 UTC. Cumulative USDG in since 9 Aug $2,513.77 across 148 claim-outs to 76 distinct wallets (founder's "140 claims to 71 wallets" on 30 Aug CONFIRMED). Holder yield = **0.52% of market cap per year**. Lending-side revenue separately trivial: performanceFee 0.10, $20,341 borrowed, protocol take about $163/yr, so cap/lending-revenue is roughly 47,500x
- OWNERSHIP: token has NO owner, mint, pause, blacklist, setFee or setMaxWallet selector by direct bytecode scan of 3,248 bytes, clean. StakingRewards owner() = plain EOA `0x1bf704707e9F3f407EbC9364fDAeD08C39893770`, no timelock. Core USDG vault `0x026df18fbd2A7639089D0a16293383ec687A5Ca1` is UNVERIFIED, owner() = unverified contract `0x396ae0bd5623c3750e15fd222770f1e972153ed4`, and fee(), curator(), guardian(), timelock() and MAX_FEE() all REVERT, so it is not a standard MetaMorpho vault. Depositor risk, not holder risk
- deployer `0x69C3eaDC15Cb2b505193D94e041299cA885A7DA9` has nonce 0 and zero balance on Ethereum, Base and Arbitrum, chain-native only, and personally deposited $12,155.58 of the Core vault's $25,079.07
- comps at screen: ARROW $8,466,812, DENAR $1,938,636, SYNDROMICS $262,164, POURED $199,486, INDEX $29,943,627, STONKBROKER $37,548,447, MORPHO $1.674B at 0.176x MC/TVL, AAVE $1.913B at 0.111x
- trigger to upgrade to FULL: /api/stats depositorCount above 100 AND totalBorrowed above $50,000 with PONS under 40% of it
- falsifiers: (1) rewardRate() on `0xEba502e1177f5fad9432c2deb273569D8381e01A` falls below 0.0004 USDG/sec, a 68% cut, or periodFinish passes un-refunded (2) depositorCount still under 100 or totalBorrowed still under $50,000 on 21 Sep 2026 (3) **REWRITTEN 2 Sep 2026: disabled markets above 75% of total borrowing. FIRED 3 Sep 2026 at 95.01%** (wsNET-NN 74.82% + PONS 19.46%, both enabled:false)
- structural falsifier per lowcap-screen CHECK 0.96: does Longbow start owning pools, hooks or orderflow so fees accrue TO it rather than THROUGH it. Chain growth alone does not close a 1,583x revenue gap
- OUTCOME: pending, scored daily in [[screen-log-outcomes]]

### 2026-08-31 DICE / Dice Protocol
- contract `0x3F9f0b6073Ee8c495Aed96869AF31850fED40FeB` | chain robinhood | category infra-operated (staking gives API credits, no revenue routing)
- verdict at 12:30 UTC: **NO at this price. PROBE 10% only on a retrace to $250,000 to $350,000 with the usage trigger below.** Assumed Ben holds none, he did not say
- mc_screen $778,508 (MC == FDV, 1,000,000,000 supply, 100% float, no unlocks) | reported liq $116,724 across 5 pools | measured quote side $57,700 (v3 pool holds 21.4422 WETH = $52,417) | age 34 DAYS (first pool 28 Jul 2026 21:41 UTC) | off ATH 5.6%, ATH $0.000846392 set 31 Aug | holders 1,421
- THE DECISIVE NUMBER: **268 lifetime randomness requests** from 25 distinct callers, counted from every `Requested` event on DiceEntropy `0xd8A0680e7699526B57140ED4EAfdCc7219Dc0A0c` via eth_getLogs over 40M blocks. At the contract's own 0.000025 ETH fee that is **0.0067 ETH = $16.38 of lifetime protocol revenue**. Contract ETH balance 0.005454. Cap / lifetime revenue = 47,500x
- USAGE IS FALLING NOT RISING: 73 requests on 6 Aug, 36 on 20 Aug, 28 on 23 Aug, **17 in the last 7 days**, 7 on 30 Aug (the day four integrations were announced), 2 on 31 Aug
- price ran 12x in 48h on announcements: 30 Aug open $0.0000699 to $0.000846 high on 31 Aug. h24 txns 889 buys / 1,120 sells with price +83%
- STAKING IS EMPTY: DiceStake `0xc091ce59cAC1112A30e4344ced039c25B6cfa174` holds **1,361,150 DICE = 0.136% of supply = $1,088**, 44 lifetime token transfers. DiceQuota `0x825AC2A5Ca8D8A6E56dF418C3227a72bD39830F3` and Provider `0x8741b8a825644D9Ef18Faf2DAB5e9b47B900F2b6` hold ZERO DICE
- BURN PRICED: 26,010,573 DICE (2.601%) at 0xdEaD, all five burns 1 to 5 Aug from `0x4acd2c88a239a924e47fc4995114ca1bb0ca3cad`, a wallet with **ZERO normal transactions** that received 48,930,665 DICE from PonsLaunchLocker `0x736d76699c26d0d966744cae304c000d471f7f35`. **Cost of the burn: $0.** It is launchpad creator-fee inventory, not a buyback. The same wallet forwarded 22,920,092 DICE (2.29% of supply) out to 5 other wallets. No burn since 5 Aug
- TECH: DiceEntropy is a fork of Pyth Entropy V2, stated in its own SPDX header. Immutable, no proxy, V2 API only, admin role sets fee and vault. Event signatures match Pyth Entropy V2 exactly
- TOKEN CONTRACT CLEAN: PonsLauncherToken, verified, 5,274 bytes, selector scan finds NO mint, pause, owner, transferOwnership, blacklist, setFee, setMaxWallet or upgradeTo. restrictionEndBlock 25,634,075 long passed, so it is a plain ERC-20 now
- MONOPOLY CLAIM CONFIRMED: DefiLlama lists 133 protocols on Robinhood Chain and **not one oracle or randomness protocol**. But the same list holds 11 Gamified Mining and Luck Games protocols (Astro, Fake Wall Street, StockRip, SLVR, Orchard, LUNA, Orixium, MinePea, ROAR, STEEL, BowStop) that all need randomness and are not among the 25 callers. The competitor without a token is DIY blockhash RNG and it has ~100% share
- PHISHING CAMPAIGN ACTIVE: 8+ posts 26 to 31 Aug from accounts with 5 to 61 followers, correct contract address, "claim portal / eligibility check / wallet check" plus a shortened link. Drainer, not the team
- X: 20 posts in 7 days, 16 unique authors, 4 of them the project's own accounts. **ZERO tier-one coverage** across blknoiz06, theunipcs, pingucharts, CrashiusClay69, 0xkioto, metaversejoji, dontbuytops after direct tagging
- FALSE CLAIM CAUGHT: @DarthDegen (8,510 followers) "Live integration paying for reveals, burns supply" is FALSE on both halves at magnitude. Reveals paid $16.38 lifetime, the burn cost $0
- UNRESOLVED: founder @0xKreative described as "doxxed" by promoters, but the evidence offered is a follower-graph claim (followed by @jessepollak and @MEADGod). No name and no prior shipped project found
- comps at screen: SCL $248,919, PINDEX $254,844, MESH $1,135,048, WEBSITE $1,853,573, TWO $4,527,005, BOW $8,236,451, ARROW $9,549,372, HOOKR $15,986,875, DELTA $25,216,691, INDEX $33,917,288. Ring 2 pure-play randomness: Orochi ON $34.2M, API3 $32.0M, Supra $6.6M; Randomizer.ai and drand have no token
- exit depth at Ben's real size: v3 pool fee tier is 10000 = 1%, round trip 2% fees plus impact. $2,500 about 11% round trip, $5,000 about 19%, $15,000 about 46%
- upgrade trigger written BEFORE any probe: `Requested` events on `0xd8A0680e7699526B57140ED4EAfdCc7219Dc0A0c` exceed **500 in a rolling 7 days** (30x the current rate), OR DiceStake balance exceeds 50,000,000 DICE (5% of supply)
- falsifiers: (1) 7-day request count still under 100 on 21 Sep 2026 (2) DiceStake balance still under 10,000,000 DICE on 21 Sep 2026 (3) `0x4acd2c88a239a924e47fc4995114ca1bb0ca3cad` receives a new PonsLaunchLocker tranche and forwards it to a fresh EOA instead of 0xdEaD
- OUTCOME: pending, scored daily in [[screen-log-outcomes]]

### 2026-08-31 BACKED / Backed
- contract `0x7168563B0E70124f0C7c0cF2F13a8D1861BAf4A5` | chain robinhood | category infra-operated (looks like payout, is NOT: it ACCUMULATES, the holder must redeem)
- verdict at 12:45 UTC: **YES at lottery size.** Assumed Ben holds none; his fomo book at screen is microduck, CHIPS, VYNEX, LAYOOO, RAM, Dickcoin, NVDA. Full screen in [[backed-token]]
- mc_screen $1,053,287 (= FDV, supply fixed and only shrinking, no unlocks) | liq_screen $183,087 across 12 pairs, main ETH pool $147,765 with a $72,673 quote side | age 1,079h (45.0 days, launched 17 Jul 2026 13:09 UTC) | off ATH 22.8% (ATH $0.00144395 daily = $1.363M MC on 30 Aug) | holders 1,302, top 10 = 20.46%
- vol24 $713,866 = 4.8x reported liquidity, 9.8x quote-side. buys/sells h24 1,292/907, h6 275/164, h1 40/15
- RESERVE MEASURED $162,980 at StockVault `0x49ef9869FC358B6E755C722Ea8514A574bd8ce8E`: MSFT $25,742.55, NVDA $23,764.77, AMZN $23,386.20, TSLA $22,764.29, GOOGL $22,555.63, AAPL $22,326.42, META $22,115.20, plus 0.1327 ETH. MC/NAV 6.46x. Redeemable floor net of the 5% fee $0.00016399/token, price/floor 6.80x, downside to floor 85.3%
- **THE DECISIVE RECONCILIATION**: lifetime main-pool volume $5,258,217 x 3% = $157,747 implied tax vs $162,980 measured, +3.3% = stock appreciation. Proves the reserve is 100% organic with no seed AND that the five other advertised revenue sources have contributed nothing measurable
- take rate read off the contract: BackedFeeHook `0xCeD7AA50727f3cD251985b09a2080Db056a8C0cc` FEE_BPS 300, 3% of the ETH side both ways, 100% to the vault, no LP split. Round trip 8.0% in fees (3+1 each way) plus ~0.7% impact at $500 = 9.4%
- token immutable by direct bytecode scan of 1,859 bytes: no mint, owner, pause, blacklist, setFee, setMaxWallet. 5.585% of supply already redeemed and burned (1B to 944,145,814)
- LP LOCKED to 30 Jun 2027 15:27 UTC. UNCX UniV4LiquidityLockerV3 `0x128A800cBc615cc110Bff16E475865c67631603A`, lock id 7, positionId 723660, liquidity 44,288,090,057,785,988,378,217, receipt NFT held by deployer `0x9ca5B125C8369df97642C012bE2B356c3165DCC7`
- comps at screen: INDEX $34,002,425 (SAME hook, forked verbatim per BACKED's own source comments, but DISTRIBUTES), STONKBROKER $65,667,177, QUOTRONS $12,939,931, DTF $6,384,715, NET $5,996,038, HOOD10 $4,840,046, DENAR $1,938,184 at 14h old, PDEX $1,132,398. Global: OHM $295,074,777, the only survivor of 136 protocols in DefiLlama's Reserve Currency category
- trigger to upgrade to full size: BACKED added to the Denar collateral list AND the 10% Denar-fee buy-and-burn live on chain, i.e. the first revenue that is not a tax on its own holders
- falsifiers: (1) main-pool 7-day average volume falls below $50,000/day, dropping reserve growth to ~$1,500/day (2) reserve NAV at `0x49ef9869FC358B6E755C722Ea8514A574bd8ce8E` fails to clear $250,000 by 30 Sep 2026 (3) DENAR `0x3786728a2c49C4617Bf4FE5BD82b90B6B0dF5508` market cap stays above BACKED's for 14 straight days
- flagged: active phishing campaign posting the correct CA with a fake "holder portal", and a paid-KOL pod under @Defi_Rocketeer two days after the project publicly claimed it does no paid KOL promo
- OUTCOME: pending, scored daily in [[screen-log-outcomes]]

### 2026-08-31 RAM / Ramses (Robinhood Chain satellite) — AUTHENTICITY CHECK ONLY, not a full screen
- contract `0x5173D45A1191eE33cBB7D8c7e65f21B04eD54802` | chain robinhood | category infra-operated (ve(3,3) DEX)
- verdict at 13:05 UTC: **GENUINE, not a scam.** Ben asked only "who is the creator / is there a scam", so no valuation frames were run
- creator `0xAAA5D87392652647225B96563e469768f000b9De` matches Ramses' AAA-vanity deployer convention (Arbitrum RAM is `0xAAA6C1E32C55A7Bfa8066A6FAE9b42650F262418`). Contract verified 14 Aug 2026 as `RamsesOftSatellite`, a stock LayerZero OFT, 591 bytes of source, no externally callable mint
- official @RamsesExchange (31,480 followers, created 19 Jan 2022) announced the Robinhood deploy 31 Aug 12:15 UTC and reported $73,000 of 24h Robinhood fees on 31 Aug 00:51 UTC
- **IMPOSTOR ON THE SAME CHAIN**: `0x518DD7691A5AF435D9aCfF7F10C368F0966AaA7C`, name "Ramses RAM", creator `0x35b4728De7a40590Ec0c1B1298b9cf63D611a26f`, total supply 1 token, 76 holders, ~$17.7K liquidity, ~$31.6K MC. Address ends in "aAA7C" to mimic the AAA vanity
- **MARKET-CAP TRAP**: DexScreener showed ~$1.37M "market cap" on Robinhood. That is bridged satellite supply (11,898,048 RAM) x price, NOT the asset's market cap. Real RAM on HyperEVM hub at screen: price $0.1161, circulating MC $5.84M, FDV $27.52M, $874K liquidity. Anyone buying this as a "$1.4M lowcap" is mispricing it by ~20x on FDV
- RH satellite traded at $0.1208 vs hub $0.1161 = **+4.0% cross-chain premium**; all RH pairs printed -15% to -17% on m5
- residual risk, structural not malicious: OFT `owner()` = `0x20d630cf1f5628285bfb91dfac8c89eb9087be1a`, a plain EOA with `setPeer` power. A compromised delegate could authorise a malicious source chain and mint RAM on Robinhood. No timelock observed
- OFT peer for HyperEVM eid 30367 = `0xe1c39b767e968a57af2ecad2f5b09ee2e7874d9f` (hub-side adapter). Arbitrum and Ethereum peers unset
- NOT DONE (Ben asked for speed): no fee-revenue verification against DefiLlama, no ve(3,3) emissions/dilution math, no holder distribution, no three-frame valuation
- OUTCOME: pending, never scored as a multiple, it is the bridged-supply trap this row exists to name. See [[screen-log-outcomes]]

### 2026-08-31 RAM / Ramses — FULL VALUATION (follow-up to the authenticity check above)
- contracts: hub `0x555570a286F15EbDFE42B66eDE2f724Aa1AB5555` (HyperEVM) | satellite `0x5173D45A1191eE33cBB7D8c7e65f21B04eD54802` (robinhood) | r33 `0x4e5195469A0360f5dfe811730C9CCaCFF0a0FeeE` (robinhood)
- category infra-operated (holder must lock into xRAM/r33 to capture anything). Chain-agnostic, NOT a Robinhood-native lowcap
- verdict at 13:20 UTC: **NO at this price. WAIT for a retrace.** Real business, real revenue, but the entire fee thesis repriced 4.4x in the last 12 hours
- THE DECISIVE CANDLE, HyperEVM daily closes on pool `0xbE052ED684849311604d7a4Bc45ef291526E34A2`: 22 Aug $0.01564, 26 Aug $0.01595, 28 Aug $0.02241, 30 Aug $0.02680, **31 Aug $0.11738 with an intraday ATH of $0.14391**. +338% on the daily close, -18.4% off an ATH set hours earlier
- **The fee number was already true at 1/7th the price.** Robinhood fees were running $64k/day through the flat $0.015 tape. The market repriced on the team's 12:15 UTC listing tweet, not on new fundamentals
- mc_screen $5,945,606 circulating | **FDV $28,023,821** | totalSupply 236,934,876 read from the hub contract
- FEE CLAIM CONFIRMED BY TWO INDEPENDENT SOURCES: DefiLlama Ramses CL V2 Robinhood fees24h $64,273; team's own Epoch #41 counter $257,459 at ~4 days elapsed = $64.4k/day. Agreement within 0.2%
- fee split: **95% to LPs, 5% to the Sarcophagus r33 buy-and-burn.** No emissions on Robinhood; emissions continue on HyperEVM
- BUYBACK PRICED: 5% x $64,273/day = **$3,217/day = $1.174M/yr**, 19.7% of circulating MC but only **4.2% of FDV**
- BURN PRICED ON CHAIN: 703,323 r33 at 0xdEaD out of 12,299,973 total = 5.72% of r33 supply, ~$82,300 of RAM-equivalent lifetime. Sarcophagus live 17 Aug
- protocol fees all chains 24h: CL V2 $70,833 + DLMM $6,334 + Legacy V2 $588 = $77,755. DefiLlama holdersRevenue all three $7,035/24h = $2.57M/yr run rate; 30d actual $106,064 = $1.29M/yr annualised. TVL $7.36M total
- **MARKET SHARE IS THE CEILING**: Robinhood Chain does $12,081,622/day in total DEX fees. Ramses is **0.53% of that** and ranks #14
- comps: AERO mcap $936,582,832 on $91.37M of 1y holder revenue = **10.2x**, and that valuation is BACKED ($182.8M Slipstream TVL). SHADOW (same founding team, Sonic) FDV $3.28M. RAM at AERO's 10.2x on 30d-annualised holder revenue = $13.2M; on the current run rate = $26.2M, i.e. FDV is already there
- EMISSIONS UNRESOLVED: @Amoon_Ram_ put HyperEVM emissions at $42k/week at the new price = $2.18M/yr versus $1.17M/yr of buyback. If true the token is net-inflationary by 1.9x. Not verified on chain
- exit depth: global quote side ~$788k. $10k = 1.3% of the bid, $35k = 4.4%. **Exit depth is not the constraint here, entry price is**
- ARB NOTE: satellite $0.1208 vs hub $0.1161 = +4.0%. If buying, buy the hub on HyperEVM
- trigger to buy: retrace to $0.04 to $0.06 (FDV $9.5M to $14.2M) **while** Robinhood fees hold at $60k+/day. Or Ramses' share of Robinhood Chain DEX fees crosses 1.5% from 0.53%
- falsifiers: (1) chain total DEX fees below $6M/day (2) Ramses Robinhood fees below $30k/day for 7 straight days (3) r33 burned at 0xdEaD fails to clear 1,500,000 by 30 Sep 2026 (4) circulating supply above 80M
- OUTCOME: pending. The fee leg of the buy trigger FIRED 1 Sep. Superseded by the fourth pass; scoring in [[screen-log-outcomes]]

### 2026-08-31 RAM / Ramses — THIRD PASS, 13:45 UTC, score 33/100. SUPERSEDED by the fourth pass; kept only for the three findings that survived
- corrected the second pass's "float 21.4%": RAM totalSupply 236,934,876.17758635 IDENTICAL at 7d/14d/30d/60d, so the emission ratio is 0x. **But 0x emission is NOT Gate 1's metric**, which is why the fourth pass overturned this score
- the finding that survived every pass: **the 5% Sarcophagus buys and burns r33, NOT RAM. balanceOf(RAM, 0xdEaD) = 0.** A RAM buyer is not the beneficiary of the buyback; an r33 buyer is. @Amoon_Ram_'s "keeps buying back more $RAM" is FALSE
- r33 trades at ~53% of RAM, consistent with a ~50% exit penalty. LayerZero lockbox held 13,179,398 RAM vs 11,856,596 minted on Robinhood, over-collateralised 1.11x, bridge honest
- X CLAIM AUDIT: @TheTripperApe "40M $RAM total, 1/5 on RH" FALSE both halves. "More volume than UP" FALSE (up v3 $34.3M/24h vs Ramses $26.4M). "Since before the ARB airdrop" TRUE-ish. "Never exploited" UNRESOLVED

### 2026-08-31 RAM / Ramses — FOURTH AND FINAL PASS, 14:05 UTC. Score **15/100, TWO GATES FIRED. Tier Zero. VERDICT: NO.**
- **CORRECTION 1, the one that matters.** Third pass said "emission ratio 0x, Gate 1 structurally cannot fire". The emission ratio really is 0x, but **Gate 1's metric is the COVERAGE RATIO, and it fails at ~17.9x against a 5x threshold.** A good number on one metric hid a fatal number on the actual gate
- **CORRECTION 2.** Third pass said 186.6M RAM was "unlocated, no wrapper". **RESOLVED via Dune (`erc20_hyperevm.evt_Transfer`): the wrapper is xRAM `0xae6d5fce541216bda471d311425b5412d9f1deb9`**, a 15,324-byte contract holding **183,052,536 RAM = 77.3% of supply**, with **366,105,072 xRAM outstanding at an exact 0.5000 backing ratio**
- HOLDER MAP, net balances from Dune: xRAM vault 185,274,610 (78.20%) · deployer `0x20d630cf1f5628285bfb91dfac8c89eb9087be1a` 15,597,022 (6.58%) · LayerZero lockbox `0xe1c39b767e968a57af2ecad2f5b09ee2e7874d9f` 11,436,756 (4.83%). **Top 3 = 89.61%.** Genuine free float ~38.7M RAM ≈ $4.4M
- **THE OVERHANG, SIZED: $20.98M of instantly exercisable xRAM claims against ~$4.4M of free float, a 4.8x ratio.** The 0.5 backing IS the exit penalty, already applied, so redemption is instant and costs nothing further
- **THE OVERHANG WAS FIRING AT SCREEN TIME.** xRAM vault RAM flows 31 Aug: IN 14,171 / **OUT 1,499,789, a 106:1 inversion.** Every prior day in the 21-day sample ran ~2:1 IN:OUT (19 Aug 1,779,474/889,737; 21 Aug 992,761/496,381; 12 Aug 648,685/324,342). Stakers redeeming into the +406% candle
- **DEPLOYER MOVED INTO THE ANNOUNCEMENT.** 31 Aug 09:20:46 UTC the deployer sent **1,200,000 RAM to the LayerZero lockbox**, i.e. bridged to Robinhood Chain, **three hours before the 12:15 UTC listing tweet**. Prior outflows 1,000,000 on 28 Aug, 1,800,000 on 15 Aug, 675,000 on 19 Aug, ~5.23M in 21 days. Still holds 15,597,022 RAM plus 5,000,001 hyperRAM
- **RAM burned at 0xdEaD = 0, re-confirmed.** The Sarcophagus burns r33 only: 706,656 of 13,823,669 = 5.11%
- SCORE: SUPPLY 9/40 (A1 4/18, A2 4/12, A3 1/10) · DEMAND 6/35 (B1 0/15, B2 2/12, B3 4/8) · RERATING 7/25 (C1 3/10, C2 2/8, C3 2/7) · modifiers +3 reflexivity, -10 post-delivery
- GATES: **Gate 1 FIRES** (coverage 17.9x vs 5x). **Gate 2 FIRES** (no nameable RAM bid). Gate 3 N/A
- live at screen: hub price $0.1146, mc $5,762,199, **FDV $27,159,358**, hub liq $880,801 with 600,028 USDC quote side. RH satellite 27 pairs, liq $406,933, vol24 $4,561,317. Global quote-side bid ~$790k. h1 +10.55%, h6 +334%, h24 +406%
- Ramses share of Robinhood Chain at screen: **0.53% of $12,081,622 daily fees, rank #14**; 1.88% of $1,402,529,587 daily volume, rank #7
- WHAT WOULD FLIP IT: xRAM vault net flow positive for 7 straight days AND price back at $0.04 to $0.06 AND the deployer stops bridging out. All three, not any one
- OUTCOME: pending. **The deciding measurement is xRAM vault `0xae6d5fce541216bda471d311425b5412d9f1deb9` net flow and it has now been deferred twice. Run it first next session.** Scoring in [[screen-log-outcomes]]

### 2026-08-31 ARC / Arc Liquidity
- contract `0xce845443428867d271929bd739148B85524B536a` | chain robinhood | category infra-operated (stock-token markets, no revenue routed to the token)
- verdict at 14:30 UTC: **NO.** Assumed Ben holds none
- mc_screen $342,605 to $353,582 (MC == FDV, **100% float**, no unlock overhang) | liq_screen $53,873 to $54,667 | age ~3 days (first pool 28 Aug 2026) | h24 +30.5% to +38.8% but **h6 -32.56%** | vol24 $405,714 = 7.5x liquidity, 1.19x market cap | site arcliquidity.capital, X @ArcLiquidity (301 followers)
- **THE MODEL STRUCTURALLY CANNOT SCORE IT.** Framework needs 5+ days of trade history; ARC has 3 to 4. No score produced. Everything below is a hand check
- **FINDING 1, the whale claim is false.** @CryptoExpert101 (67,390 followers) posted "insane wallets, 6-7 figure whales in top 20". Against the 43,738-wallet hit-rate database, **10 of ARC's top 15 buyers are spray bots, early into 87 to 270 tokens each. ZERO elite by hit rate**: `0xada5bb90d0de0bd1b6f3938708f49295a8d1f7cb` (231), `0x370a7e2d300c14d79d4a7ee07aaca46c4b3012cf` (105), `0x331d9a049d496385998067abf6cbb6371c8d2466` (104), `0xca7ded7e4f4ba8ab3b10009236ae6d1b95094589` (102), `0xa5a5491bca93dd4c076e4906e79e7673f4a5a142` (100), `0x344daadde53a81f95bcc46a99d39107a509251a1` (96), `0xcc4bc7882d5ec4a3716e589ab3d816b61ae47a1a` (92), `0x919968a4238a54b381f022a360260ef5d7e015ac` (92), `0x0ec4e45f9ce3020024c0418a74cd31fbc487038f` (89), `0x18dd3c14e34c1bc379f7538068c59160d9f68e25` (87). **CORRECTED 1 Sep: `0xf70da97812cb96acdf810712aa562db8dfa3dbef` was listed 11th and is NOT a spray bot, it is infrastructure (145,708 addresses sent to, first funder of 105,696). Apply the [[operator-graph]] degree filter to BUYER wallets too**
- **FINDING 2, tier-one coverage on a sub-$1M token is a LATE signal by my own measurement (-39% at one week).** @CryptoExpert101 called it "the next #DELTA"; @_getexpensive (9,741) posted "another 10x+ under the belt"
- **FINDING 3, active drainer campaign on the CA.** Accounts with 3 to 69 followers posting "eligibility check / holder portal / $90 claim showing" with the correct CA and t.co links. Same pattern as CHUMP, DICE, BACKED
- **FLOW SAYS NOBODY IS ACCUMULATING.** Total buy $507,018 / sell $475,281, net imbalance **+0.032**. Daily +0.039 / -0.048 / +0.062 / +0.016. 1,164 distinct wallets, **524 net short totalling $256,471**
- FAVOURABLE SIDE, stated honestly: 100% float, no unlock overhang; buy concentration LOW (top5 11.6%, top20 30.8%) and high top-5 share is the direction that predicts failure (AUC 0.405); product claim is six live stock-token markets (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA) quoted in USDG, lending "next", the operated-infrastructure category the chain radar measured at 66x
- comps (ticker / mcap / float / liq / vol24 / vol-to-mc / vol-to-liq / age / h24): DELTA $23,135,686 100% $1,667,712 $10,161,959 0.44 6.1 30d -15.2 | INDEX $30,177,997 100% $1,909,902 $5,694,027 0.19 3.0 59d -10.1 | AI $137,535,875 101% $8,281,679 $29,946,647 0.22 3.6 47d +52.0 | ARROW $11,559,478 90% $7,449,181 $1,202,957 0.10 0.2 58d +47.2 | BOW $6,243,569 100% $421,002 $3,993,861 0.64 9.5 22d +34.8 | TWO $5,766,600 100% $343,918 $2,841,563 0.49 8.3 2d +108.0 | PAIR $4,244,666 100% $513,563 $7,395,508 1.74 14.4 1d +0.3 | VYNEX $1,004,557 100% $166,491 $1,130,691 1.13 6.8 4d -21.1 | SCL $215,478 100% $62,412 $300,688 1.40 4.8 1d -44.5 | **ARC $342,605 100% $53,873 $406,322 1.19 7.5 3d +30.5**
- FRESH OUT-OF-SAMPLE VALIDATION, same day, new 24 Aug origin, 1,272 unseen tokens: AUC **0.686** for touching +50% in 7d (base 25.6%), AUC **0.819** for death (base 5.0%). Q1 254 tokens 38.6% touch 1.51x lift 1.2% died mean +50.3%; Q5 255 tokens 5.5% touch 0.21x lift 12.9% died mean -5.3%
- trigger that would make it a buy: 3-day rolling net buy imbalance above +0.15 WHILE price holds a base above $250,000 mc, AND at least one elite-hit-rate wallet enters the top 20 buyers
- falsifiers: (1) the six stock-token markets show zero cumulative on-chain volume by 14 Sep 2026 (2) liquidity falls below $30,000 **[FIRED 2 Sep 2026 at $27,567]** (3) @ArcLiquidity stops posting for 7 days (4) lending side not deployed by 30 Sep 2026
- OUTCOME: **dead / CLOSED 7 Sep 2026** on vol24 $56.59. NO was RIGHT, 0.018x. See [[screen-log-outcomes-5]]

### 2026-09-01 RIPE / Ripe Protocol
- contracts: RH `0x4D3f37a965b21aB4122e92Dd41D2693E742c883b` | Base `0x2a0a59d6b975828e781ecac125dba40d7ee5ddc0` | chain robinhood + base | category infra-operated (portfolio-collateral CDP issuing the GREEN stablecoin)
- verdict: **NO / SELL. Score 13/100, all three gates fired, Tier Zero.** Full screen in [[ripe-protocol]]. Assumed Ben holds none, he did not say
- mc_screen **$48,300,000** (10,451,874 RIPE minted x $4.62), NOT the $671k DexScreener prints or the $3.86M CoinGecko prints. Max supply 1,000,000,000, **float 1.05%**, FDV $4.83B | liq_screen $332,000 both chains (RH $213,615 + Base ~$118,000) | age: token 13 months (Base 27 Jul 2025), RH leg 2 days | off ATH 89% ($42.92, 9 Aug 2025) but **+34.8x in 30 days from $0.141**, RSI14 97.7 | holders 120 on RH
- **THE ROW THIS EXISTS FOR: Ben pasted it as "a new project" and it is not.** Two errors were live at once: the project was 13 months old, and every public aggregator understated the market cap by 12x to 72x because none sums supply across chains
- Gate 1 coverage **153x** vs 5x: 10,978,814 RIPE of queued mint authority ($50.7M) against ~$332,000 of nameable bid. Gate 2 no nameable buyer, the farm reward is RIPE-denominated (B1 trap, seller not buyer). Gate 3 reserve empty
- routing yield 0.04% at best, 0% realised | emission ratio ~2,850x | MC/TVL 82x vs a 0.08-0.33x CDP band | GREEN outstanding both chains **$158,400**, the whole loan book
- comps at screen: LQTY $21,618,440 / TVL $273,995,354 = 0.079x · ALCX $5,552,827 / $37,642,122 = 0.148x · INV $6,712,685 / $27,146,316 = 0.247x · SKY $1,575,670,547 / $5,481,023,446 = 0.287x · ENA $1,487,211,893 / $4,566,174,201 = 0.326x. RH ring: PONS $320,751,865, CASHCAT $220,129,883, AI $169,492,765, STONKBROKER $49,114,500, INDEX $28,571,742, NET $5,951,009
- the one surviving exclusion rule does NOT veto it: 7d imbalance +0.140 on txn count. Recorded because it cuts against the verdict
- falsifiers / reversal triggers: (1) Endaoment `0x9f20f25f037046721a292b19a486932ef390eaf9` shows a non-zero balance (2) GREEN outstanding clears $5M across both chains (3) price back to $0.57-$1.44 with farm collateral intact
- PROCESS NOTE: the first pass shipped the three frames and the chain/slot/tollbooth blocks but NOT the price-driver model. Ben had to ask for it. **The driver model answers buy-or-sell; the frames only answer what it is worth. Run both, unprompted, every time.**
- OUTCOME: pending, **2.39x against the SELL at day 1, the widest gap in the book**. Scoring in [[screen-log-outcomes]]