---
name: venture-charts
description: Venture (venture81 / @venture_charts, Discord venture_charts) method distilled from his Discord course + 35 YouTube transcripts, a mechanical replica backtested on 100 top coins (4 Oct 2026), and his dated crypto calls scored. Read before any Venture, supply and demand, fair value or Hurst cycle question.
sources: [cowork]
aliases: [venture, venture81, venture_charts, venture method, hurst cycles, supply and demand logic, money flow patterns]
---
- [stated] Ben asked (4 Oct 2026) to learn Venture's method from the Discord, replicate it, apply it to 100 big coins, and test whether supply/demand + time cycles predict tops and bottoms.
- 2026-10-04 | cowork: Venture method | Supply/demand first (fresh base that left violently, outside time-at-price fair value, scored on a 7-rule card: structure, time at level, location outside value, distance travelled, untested, fib/open confluence, correlated market); Hurst cycles ("money flow") second: phase by phase, ideal low = synced troughs, set negative = phase below its start low, shift = first higher low + pitchfork break | receipt: Discord S&D part 1+2 slides, Unit 6 time cycle videos, 35 YouTube transcripts; files in Mac ~/venture (methodology.md, engine.py, study.py, events.csv) | PROVEN (as his method)
- 2026-10-04 | cowork: Venture replica on 100 coins | If his 7-rule card is coded mechanically on daily candles (100 top coins, OKX/KuCoin daily to 3 Oct 2026), then score 6+/7 marks a bottom (within 7 days and 5% of the 30d low) 17% of the time by independent weeks vs 19% for a plain RSI14 cross under 30 and 4% random; tops 24% vs 22% for RSI cross over 70; trades at the zone lose after 0.2% costs (avg -0.07R), shift entry +0.13R n=180 (too small) | raw 37% hit rate was 3 crash weeks (Jun 2023, Aug 2024, 10 Oct 2025) counted many times | KILLED (no edge over RSI)
- 2026-10-04 | cowork: Hurst timing alone | If BTC's next low is projected as last trough + median spacing (80d family, ~97d spacing), then it lands within +-15% of spacing 35% of the time (about chance), median miss 40 days; "BTC in its low window" helped alt bottoms 2020, 2023 to 2025 but scored 0% in 2026 (n=140) | KILLED as a mechanical timer; P80 troughs did match his dated lows (5 Aug 2024, 7 Apr 2025, 21 Nov 2025, 1 Jul 2026); next mechanical BTC low ~23 Oct 2026 (his: mid Oct)
- 2026-10-04 | cowork: Venture's own calls | 19 closed dated crypto calls from his YouTube (Mar 2025 to Sep 2026): about 13 hit, 2 half (price right, weeks late), 4 missed (BTC 24 Apr 2026 path, TAO 139, TAO fail at 302, HBAR 0.059); most hits were with-trend bear calls; his 21 Sep 2026 BTC high (87.4k) was on the day | TESTING (human discretion beats the coded rules; his open calls: BTC dip into mid Oct then 93k late 2026, ETH 2,281/2,060 pullback then 3,400, CRV reject 0.38 to 0.40)
- [stated] 4 Oct 2026: Ben said watching his video frames (how he draws and places cycles) is fundamental; frames were reviewed from Unit 2 bracket placement (gold), Unit 3.1 to 3.4 (uranium, BKR, gold shift), Unit 1.5 harmonicity, plus his #macro-btc and #btc charts.
- 2026-10-04 | cowork: how Venture draws cycles (from video frames) | Bracket = fixed width arcs, start on the weekly chart, anchor on a major low, set width so arc ends land on the big lows (he marks each hit with an X; stacked X = two harmonics synced), then halve it 2 or 3 levels (dashed arcs), project the comb forward as the "ideal" low; daily chart nests the same way; circles each trough and labels it PC (higher low) / RT / LT; long setup = row of PC troughs, pullback into 0.618 to 0.66 fib plus an old SR, then break of the blue down line; BTC macro: solid lines Jan 2023 and ~Mar 2027 (ideal monthly low), dashed ~Jul 2024 and ~Nov 2025 (about 16 to 18 month cycles, 3 per ~50 months), daily phase about 105 to 110 days (1 Jul 2026, mid Oct 2026, ~Feb 2027) | receipt: Zoom lessons in Discord Unit 6 and macro-btc images 19 Apr / 1 Jun 2026 | PROVEN (as his method)
- 2026-10-04 | cowork: his bracket coded faithfully (comb.py, combtest.py in Mac ~/venture) | If a fixed comb is fitted on past lows of matching degree (60 to 180 day widths, anchored on a real low, scored on hits both ways) and its next ideal low is projected, then the real next low lands within +-10% of a cycle 16% of the time vs 17% for a RANDOM phase and 17% for "last low + width"; well fitting combs 14% vs 17%; BTC 10% vs 11% | 6,775 projections, 100 coins, every 14 days | KILLED (bracket timing has no skill)
- 2026-10-04 | cowork: his 3.4 shift long (setup34.py) | If you require higher-low (PC) cycles plus a 0.6 to 0.79 golden zone pullback before the trendline-break trigger, then results get WORSE: full setup 397 trades 29% win, lost 0.17R avg; same trigger with no filters 2,303 trades 38% win, made 0.04R | 2R target, stop under pullback low or 0.786, 0.2% costs | KILLED