- [stated] 6 Oct 13:40 BKK, 2nd Window Supervisor: Analyst 1 A1.9 WITHDREW the "non-pulling crews" edge (0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9, 0x2dacdf0f44d07234832799a10a7cc5c8eff0223a). Their "outside" buyers were the crew's own 20 wallets in every coin; +464% was paper, real result -24% / -46%; both crews stopped launching. Window 1 has no proven real-money edge; only the 0.0015 ETH live test on crews A/BC is open. Coder told to delete the $100 lane (v1.6).
- [stated] Lesson for every lane: "new buyers" / "outside buyers" can be a crew buying from itself. A1.11 checks the v3 58 trades and virality winners; PP2 gets a repeat_set flag; Virality Expert reruns with those wallets removed.
- [stated] Coder's first live v3 gate (STONKROBBERS): real simulated swap impact 7.6% vs 0.9% from the virtual reserve model (concentrated liquidity thinner at price). A2.10 size table likely too rosy at big sizes; Analyst 2 reprices it (A2.14) before Ben picks a size.
- [stated] 6 Oct 13:45 BKK: Ben asked to stop forwarding links by hand; roles self check for tasks, Supervisor reads their status, Ben only gets significant updates. Built: bus.json (droplet cron, every minute, md5 of every file in /sw/), protocol http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-bus.md (each role self wakes every 10 min via send_later), Supervisor checks every 10 min.
- 2026-10-06 13:55 BKK (Price Predict) | [stated] Ben: no more manual forwards; follow sw-bus.md. PP doorbell trig_01RnKqj6VbrLa92K2pW8BFur, 30 min bus check scheduled; status http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-pp-status.md (md5 5dc7380404a9b586596da18a95d44f2e). Ringing the Supervisor doorbell trig_01Ah7epm3qn183JS8p9jhdnW failed 3x (internal error) | OPEN
- 2026-10-06 | A1.9 trace: the 20 repeat wallets of crews 0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9 and 0x2dacdf0f44d07234832799a10a7cc5c8eff0223a are the same wallets in both crews; 19 of 20 first funded by 0x597dcbaa9edd2fc950d4f459492a223ff926b654 (itself buying every coin, first funded by 0x53091256ebd2d8aa37b45536a5fd864ca764f32f) = the crews' own army | research-box /opt/sw/repeat20.txt | FACT (confirms A1.9)
- 2026-10-06 | PP1 v3live current (lag 0); history backfill v3hist.py from 13 Sep started (systemd v3hist, nice 10) for PP3 | LIVE
- [stated] 6 Oct 13:55 BKK: doorbell system live (send_later at 2027 = doorbell, fire_trigger WITHOUT text wakes the session; with text it errors, which is why early rings to the Supervisor failed). Ben asked the First Window Supervisor to adopt it; shared guide http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/bus-howto.md (FW prefix on all FW doorbells, PP one doorbell serving both supervisors, clashes in http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/pp-priority.md). fw/bus.json cron added.
- 2026-10-06 13:55 BKK (Analyst 2) | A2.14 REAL DEPTH (http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-14-real-depth.md md5 91ffd8900f993926d4ef2387e09c33ad; status md5 c7d6d1ccbd15571c0c5780d0ec44865e; doorbell trig_014fENmVKwUmQUumuuMu3YkT) | all 81 v3 trades repriced by walking real tick liquidity (2,843 Mint/Burn with ticks, 69 pools) | fills = R model within 0.02x up to $5k; real ETH at the $1M gate = 92-96% of virtual R (launcher range -887272..~207243, price far from its end); 1.5x crossed at ~$6.8k (second half ~$5.8k); $ per trade peaks ~$7.5k | BUG: R-model pull guard subtracted out-of-range burns: 0x978177408c2f741c24ddf5ea9eb14cecbf9b3926 (1-tick JIT position 137355-137356, price tick 140410) was a false pull, really a 4.83x target -> main book 1.99x at $500 (2.09x / 1.90x), worst day -717 (was -1,412), 14/16 green; corrects A2.2 "3 pulls" to 2 | STONKROBBERS (pool 0xdcc026752d7cbf4fe2a14d53986bd3d22de72024, token 0x9e81d57799ad169eea523bf98addc6c9c224228e) 7.6% impact = price 71 ticks from its launch-range end, where virtual R counts ETH not in the pool; not an issue at the $1M gate | /tmp/w2/a214 tick.py, truel.py, run.py, table.py | FACT (paper). Coder must count only in-range mints/burns for R. Note: my hub-7 times "~16:30" and "~17:45 BKK" for A2.9/A2.10 and A2.13 were wrong; real times were about 13:20 and 13:40 BKK.
- 2026-10-06 14:05 BKK (Price Predict) | Supervisor ring now works (no text field). Per crew pull test + nightly trap table http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/pull_daily.md (research-box /opt/sw/pulldaily.py 03:10 BKK; main /opt/swbus/pullpub.sh */20): pond 29 Sep to 5 Oct, pulled within 60 s after outside buys: B/C x3.6 to x6.5 at $10 to $50 (19% to 23%), A x1.7 to x2.1 (5% to 11%), all pond pooled x1.0 at $3 to $20 (earlier "1.2" was the crew mix); Analyst 1 direction confirmed, level gap (their 51-57% pulled) open = pull definition | c500 crews 0xf5977fd6d81bcc0dfb4b995555caf10068278d81, 0xc4a2ffded2e39b6beb595e78950870dc5ec352d5 pull 57-100%; c2500 $3 85% pulled | fmw1pp now pond only (FW sup v5) | v3hist crashed on db lock, now writes /opt/sw/v3hist.db; hook 0x4e3468951d49f2eea976ed0d6e75ffcb44a9a544 pools collected (v3hook.db + live venue hook_4e34) | status sw md5 b0bc8a020052b4c8f124807abcd1285a, fw/pp-to-sup.md v3 md5 3d558a52e2685ec6be8875f463d41120 | FACT (paper data)
- 2026-10-06 14:25 BKK (Analyst 1) | [stated] Ben: no more forwards, follow sw-bus.md. Analyst 1 doorbell trig_011NaJRfN1LEDSmcrXevWSiV, 30 min safety check scheduled.
- 2026-10-06 14:25 BKK (Analyst 1) | A1.11 SELF-BUY CHECK ON V3 (57 rule coins, 541,381 token transfers from chain, router hops followed to final wallet, 23 router contracts excluded) | pre-gate buy ETH from wallets in 3+ of the coins: median 0.1%, under 10% in 51 of 57; 2 FARMS pumped 6 half-A coins (farm 1 0xcefbfccd83443e7aa1c493f4df0036013542f301, 0xcc4cb99ef15e9799e1d7e45058683a72daf5b022, 0xabe99cf268cdc8bd70a71a5283fdacbcb36714fd; farm 2 0x55683371036401f8cae676c260efcde9be36a7f4, 0xc3ba8a6f8d011881ceca8ad6e2b524232a40aa26, 0x5cee66125e28aec539365c7a34fd25a2210c3966), fresh wallets per farm used in exactly 3 coins so army (3+ earlier coins) never trips (army 0.0002-0.004); 32-95% of pre-gate ETH; 5 stops + 1 target | NEW WALK-FORWARD ENTRY FILTER rep1_pre: skip if >5% of pre-gate buy ETH from wallets seen pre-gate in 1+ earlier gated coin -> 49 coins 2.08x (A 2.18 / B 2.01) vs 1.94x (A 1.91 / B 1.96), dropped 8 at 1.08x; $20M coins in set score 0.0-0.5% | HOLD side: coins where >20% of new h0-4 buyers were repeat wallets 1.17x vs 2.14x (post-entry, virality hold check only) | doc http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-11-self-buy-v3.md md5 24e42e5f2bb9b41cc306da9c7630c151 | FACT (paper, small n: 2 farms). x values from A2.8 csv (before A2.14 fixed the 0x978177408c2f741c24ddf5ea9eb14cecbf9b3926 false pull)
- 2026-10-06 14:05 BKK (Analyst 2) | A2.11 LIVE CHECK started (http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-11-live-check.md md5 404ab2d7371ecc4df3d28a73e715b273; status md5 e94416e31666811147ad059a3a21d0a7) | first w2_v3_1m paper trade CLAUS 0xdce571082a59700a026cab6d19e46a2f43fc1d46 (pool 0x4d8b2411255580b19a0b9fc90ed36ee15e7e1af5): my chain replay matches gate 13:51:38 vs 13:51:37, cap $1.144M, age 29.7 min, top share 0.0492 | MISMATCH 1 (bug): Coder entry_cap = gate cap $1,144,067, not cap at fill ($898k at its fill), so 5x/0.6x levels are set from the wrong base; stop fired 13:55:00 at $676k, from the real fill it would still be open at 13:57 (0.60x) | MISMATCH 2: fill at gate +20.6 s (feed lag) not +5 s; price fell 22% in that window | army share not reproduced (my memory ends 5 Oct) | /tmp/w2/a211 fetchpool.py, replay1.py | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 14:10 BKK (Price Predict) | FW sup v6: hook 0x6404ddb4f33b4d974e570f66288e2a7ca469a840 class tagged as crew 0x710cc9e8a632dbe6f4e60a86181ce336d3aadaf6 (creators 0x04f2cb48fa0c60da3a6241077f1b7c549b9b9094, 0x768fd7e4df27795e17bfe8da70e45d6b4c4a986b; creator funder 0x88d25c861938a91af4ad57ad964a8fcc6c6351d3, exchange-like so hop 1+ tags through it are hints only) via new main /opt/pricepredict-data/crew_extra.json merged by crewexport into brx/crew_wallets.json + crew_lookup.json; pretag reloads in 10 min | FW status fw/pp-to-sup.md v4; FW Supervisor doorbell trig_01BFtJTpDkxf6bAGRGnXuumf | LIVE
- 2026-10-06 14:05 BKK (Analyst 2) | liqbuild (LP lock / liquidity tables for the hold-or-sell cross-check) on research-box: systemd active, last log 13:21 BKK "1875 s owner_at for pulls", liqlock.db 21 GB + 7 GB WAL last written 13:22 | cross-check of hold-or-sell (99% pull unlocked, 0/18 dead-address locks pulled) still waits | OPEN, re-check 16:05 BKK
- 2026-10-06 14:20 BKK (Analyst 2) | A2.11 day line (Supervisor v1.9: paper fills stay at the engine's real fill time; Coder cutting delay to ~6 s) | CLAUS 0xdce571082a59700a026cab6d19e46a2f43fc1d46 final from its real fill ($898k, gate +20.6 s, price -22% gate to fill): stop 14:02:03 at $511k = 0.548x vs 0.558x at +6 s, delay cost -0.01x; Coder's early stop (gate-cap base bug) gave 0.62x by luck; coin $390k by 14:04 | live-check md5 ee0bb092e5242f9d7b82cf4b6557d2e9, status md5 6f01c7334d8a58f61943e003801c2b15 | FACT (paper, n=1)
- [stated] 6 Oct 14:15 BKK: Ben: no need to rotate the dRPC/Alchemy keys; Supervisor's job is to aggressively push the team towards profitability.
- [stated] 6 Oct 14:20 BKK: Ben said "go ramp": the v3 live trader (w2_v3_1m main rule only) switches on automatically once the three go-live checks pass (entry cap at fill, replay of 58 within 0.02x on 55+, one real gate with gate-to-fill 6 s or less). Ramp $100 x 10 trades, then $500 if live fills within 5% of paper, then $1,000 after 30 trades at 1.5x+. Kill switch: 6 losers in a row, failed sell check, live fill >10% worse than paper twice, wallet below 50% of start; max 3 open. Coder tasks v1.11.
- 2026-10-06 14:15 BKK (FW Supervisor) | FW Analyst 2 v5: fee 2500 / spacing 50 CLOSED (5 Oct: $10+ outside buys pulled within 5 s 20 of 24). Doppler hook 0x4e3468951d49f2eea976ed0d6e75ffcb44a9a544: liquidity owned by the hook, only Airlock 0xeb7c034704ef8dcd2d32324c1545f62fb4ad0862 can remove it (graduate), so NO creator pull; risks: adjustable LP fee (cap unknown), owner can switch extra per-pool hooks on (check per coin before buying); ~730 pools a day, 57 of 61 had zero swaps in first 2 h; launch sources long.xyz factory 0x1eef016f22a943abc7dd11422edee9d235942104, EntryPoint 0x5ff137d4b0fdcd49dca30c7cf57e578a026d2789, Airlock. Made it the MAIN FW lane: outside-buyer test waits on PP swap index. pulltrig.py BUG: army wallets count as outside when a pool has no crew.db launch row; fix = wallet in 5+ pools of the class that day is crew (/opt/fw2/pt2.py, env REPN). Hook 0x6404ddb4f33b4d974e570f66288e2a7ca469a840 crew tag downgraded to HINT. Pull definition fixed for all: first removal of 50%+ of ETH added, 60 s from the outside buy's block | OPEN (no edge yet)
- 2026-10-06 14:20 BKK (FW Analyst 3, honest outside-buyer map, crew wallets removed) | pond native: outsiders at $20 lost 96% (97% pulled) = DEAD; c10k -65% = DEAD; c500 +21 to +35% at $20 to $100 but almost all 21 to 26 Sep, trap ratio $3 9.2x falling to $100 0.3x | CANDIDATE: Doppler hook 0x4e3468951d49f2eea976ed0d6e75ffcb44a9a544, $100 in first 5 s +25%, 11 of 16 days green, 702 wallets, 0 pulls; fee 100 WETH pools no hook, $3 in first 5 s +32%, 14 of 16 days green, trap ratio at $20 1.0 | NOT YET a rule: exit definition, walk-forward, launch-source split and rep1 farm filter assigned (sup-to-a3 v8) | CANDIDATE (real outside wallets, not paper)
- 2026-10-06 14:35 BKK (FW Analyst 1) | pull definition reconcile CLOSED: PP's 50% rule = same pull block in 344/344 A, 378/378 B/C, 415/415 0x0ec66d31aab7e387b2f4cda075e39f7a6a0f541b; gap was time window (pulltrig counts 30 min) and control choice; crews A and B/C, first 5 min: $3 ratio ~1.0 to 1.15 safe, $10 2.2 to 2.65, $50 3.0, $500+ 9.8 | FACT
- 2026-10-06 14:19 BKK (FW Analyst 2 v6, status md5 8484b7559685f8d09c295a5022003c66; research-box /opt/fw2 dsafe.py, dsafe2.py) | DOPPLER LAUNCH FEE: most hook 0x4e3468951d49f2eea976ed0d6e75ffcb44a9a544 pools carry an extra fee hook (long.xyz launches 0x6f02324d20cc679d0e585290caa6b16bacbc0f77, Airlock launches 0x9982538f41f2ae29ddb9d3d9307010052984fdbb) with getFeeSchedule = start 80% (800,000 pips) decaying to 0.4-1.75% in ~10-15 s; on chain a buy 3 s after launch lost ~55% of tokens to the fee (pool 0x9a39cae63db4a1f5b7f2e1cbae9550ca67bcd1154e3cf84e5cccaa1735ae3ff5), buys at 63 s / 134 s paid ~1.5% / 1.1%; the hook sells the fee tokens back into the pool in the same block (2 sells after every buy) | LP fee cap 10% proven (static call LPFeeTooHigh(100000, x)); authority = zero address on 7 pools read; extra hooks expose only fee schedule / split / buyback / graduation (no blacklist found, unverified source) | RULE: no Doppler buy in the first ~15 s; per-coin check = getState word 2 (extra hook) + getFeeSchedule start time + length | FACT. Tension with FW Analyst 3 "$100 in first 5 s +25%": check whether those coins had no extra hook or a short schedule
- 2026-10-06 14:19 BKK (FW Analyst 2) | DOPPLER FEE WINDOW: most hook 0x4e3468951d49f2eea976ed0d6e75ffcb44a9a544 pools carry an extra fee hook starting at 80% (800,000 pips), decaying to 0.4 to 1.75% in ~10 to 15 s; a buy at +3 s lost ~55% of tokens (pool 0x9a39cae63db4a1f5b7f2e1cbae9550ca67bcd1154e3cf84e5cccaa1735ae3ff5), +63 s paid ~1.5%; hook sells fee tokens back into the pool same block | RULE: never buy a Doppler coin inside its fee schedule | fee hooks: 0x6f02324d20cc679d0e585290caa6b16bacbc0f77 (long.xyz factory), 0x9982538f41f2ae29ddb9d3d9307010052984fdbb and 0x8212f89caff7cb72e74008327983b52c909494ff (buyback mode); no blacklist/pause found | LP fee cap 10% proven by static call (LPFeeTooHigh(100000)); asset authority zero on 7 pools | pre-buy check research-box /opt/fw2/dsafe.py, dsafe2.py | FACT. Analyst 3's "+25% at first 5 s" must be rechecked against tokens really received; rerun from +15 s on assigned. PP v3hook.db had 0 pools: fix assigned.
- 2026-10-06 14:50 BKK (FW Analyst 3, sup-to-a3 v8; status http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/fw-analyst3-status.md md5 a2e0cc4a68355c805a3773ba31872cd9; research-box /root/fwa3 doppler.py, dopana.py) | DOPPLER first-5 s KILLED: the honest "+25%" was unsold coins marked at last price, real sells of the 702 wallets -3%; fixed exits (1.5x to 5x, 15 min / 1 h) lose every day: -11% at $3, -24% at $100, walk forward -28%, 0/16 days (with only 0.2% pool fee assumed; Analyst 2's 80% launch fee makes it worse) | NEW LEAD: fee 100 WETH pools, no hook, launched via PositionManager 0x58daec3116aae6d93017baaea7749052e8a04fa7: buy at first trade + 4 s, SELL AT 15 MIN (no target): +61% a trade at $20 all sources (+144% PosM-launched only, other sources -91%), 16/16 days; walk forward (exit picked 20 to 27 Sep, tested 28 Sep to 5 Oct) +74%, 8/8; 1 h hold loses (-6%, crews pull 15 to 60 min); trap ratio at $20 = 1.0; 98% are crew coins; launches drying up (~140 a day late Sep, 16 on 4 Oct, 3 on 6 Oct to 13:00) | CANDIDATE (paper, through depth)
- 2026-10-06 14:25 BKK (Analyst 2) | A2.15 more venues, partial | (1) main v3 venue age 3-6 h: 9 gates in 23 days, 2 pass top<=0.08 & army<=0.009, both lose (0.91x pull, 0.57x stop) = DEAD | (2) Pons graduates (hook 0xe5e702641ea86f4ae6cc3cdaed2b886f976be044), strict $1M sellable gate within 6 h: 49 gates (A 0.78x n40, B 1.36x n9); age<=1.54 h A 0.67x n29 / B 1.29x n6; with top + army filters only 3 pass, 0.56x; Pons pre-gate buyers are recycled wallets (army share 0.03-0.56 vs v3 ~0.001) = DEAD | v4 creations since 13 Sep: 203,165 (no hook 129,222; hook 0x4e3468951d49f2eea976ed0d6e75ffcb44a9a544 49,040; Pons 2,274); gate scan of no-hook + hook_4e34 running on main /tmp/a2 (read-only day files) | /tmp/w2/a215 pons_tr.py, pons_f.py, init.py | OPEN
- 2026-10-06 14:24 BKK (FW Analyst 2 v7, status md5 d3a4d56aaf8b3abe66cd4f33981829fd) | DOPPLER PRE-BUY CHECK live script http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a2code/dcheck.py.txt (md5 e766f51187b9598daa853218a04010bd; research-box /opt/fw2/dcheck.py): asset of hook 0x4e3468951d49f2eea976ed0d6e75ffcb44a9a544, liquidity locked, launch fee schedule done, fee now <=2%, sell proven by another wallet's sell in the pool (on-chain quoter 0x3881e5246e81e1bf731a9fc1856268d381bb9bd7 is curve math only, cannot catch hook sell blocks) -> OK/WAIT/NO | GRADUATION: liquidity never leaves; status 2 pools revert exitLiquidity (0x22e4e796 wrong status 1 vs 2) and graduate; migrator 0xba2f330edb16cd8056f5988d8ce19bbc63475a0e is a 524-byte no-op, migration pool 0xdeaddeaddeaddeaddeaddeaddeaddeaddeaddead, timelock/governance dead = holders cannot be stranded; Airlock 1,307 creates in 24 h | FACT
- 2026-10-06 14:23 BKK (Analyst 1) | A1.12 NEW CREWS (6 Oct coins read from chain: 271 pools, 48,609 swaps, signer = wallet, pull = 50% of added liquidity removed) | crew 0x04f2cb48fa0c60da3a6241077f1b7c549b9b9094 (37 fee-100 pools; also a creator in PP's hook 0x6404ddb4f33b4d974e570f66288e2a7ca469a840 tag): HONEYPOT-LIKE, outsiders 224 buys 10.74 ETH vs 11 sells 0.003 ETH, all 37 pulled (median 105 s), median top 1.5x, early $9+ outside -100% (140) | fee 2500 / spacing 50 native-ETH class (180 pools since ~01:50 BKK): 100% of buy ETH from 35 repeat wallets (e.g. 0xb002e8a04b2822d8f2890b022ddea3d25f9c3df8 in 177 of 180), 99% pulled (median 323 s), outsiders 0.098 ETH -98% = wash farm (agrees with FW Analyst 2 close) | crew 0xa9707935dd88323fba9aa9d6a95e3ab82c1ba786 (16 pools since 5 Oct): 97% self-bought (199 repeat wallets), outsiders -38% | hook 0x6404ddb4f33b4d974e570f66288e2a7ca469a840 pools are fee 0 / spacing 1, quoted in token 0x5fc5360d0400a0fd4f2af552add042d716f1d168 (not the fee-2500 class), unscored | doc http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-12-new-crews.md md5 32ccddf950cf57f0ce6aee9082c82f71 | FACT. Guard idea: skip crews whose outside sells < outside buys / 10.
- 2026-10-06 14:50 BKK (FW Analyst 3) | DOPPLER KILLED: hook 0x4e3468951d49f2eea976ed0d6e75ffcb44a9a544 "+25%" was paper (unsold coins at last price); real sells of the 702 wallets -3%; fixed exits from first 5 s lose every day (-11% at $3, -13% at $20, -24% at $100, 0 of 16 days), walk forward -28%; 87% of Doppler pools never trade | KILLED
- 2026-10-06 14:50 BKK (FW Analyst 3) | NEW LEAD "WETH pond": v4 fee 100 / spacing 1, quote WETH 0x0bd7d308f8e1639fab988df18a8011f41eacad73, no hook, launched via PositionManager 0x58daec3116aae6d93017baaea7749052e8a04fa7 | buy first trade +4 s, sell all at 15 min, no target: +61% a trade at $20, 16 of 16 days; walk forward (pick 20 to 27 Sep, test 28 Sep to 5 Oct) +74%, 8 of 8 days; PositionManager launches +144% (15 of 15 days), other launches -91% | 98% crew coins (non-farm 48 coins +53%); 1 h hold -6% (crews pull 15 to 60 min) | DRYING UP: ~140 a day late Sep, 16 on 4 Oct, 3 on 6 Oct | CANDIDATE (real sells); assigned: crew identity + where they went (A3), pull test at $5 to $100 (A2), live paper book in fmw1pp (PP)
- 2026-10-06 14:26 BKK (FW Analyst 2 v8, status md5 e60c9594bd19e40453ab7801980660a0; script http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a2code/bb.py.txt) | DOPPLER "BUYBACK" (hook 0x9982538f41f2ae29ddb9d3d9307010052984fdbb, routing mode 1, pool 0x9a39cae63db4a1f5b7f2e1cbae9550ca67bcd1154e3cf84e5cccaa1735ae3ff5, 16 trades): runs automatically inside every user trade; after a BUY the hook sells its fee tokens back (2 sells, split 82.9% / 17.1%, ~1.75% of the buy at end fee); after a SELL it buys back ~0.14% of the sell's ETH (5 of 5) | net seller on buys, tiny buyer on sells, no lump buyback to front-run = NOT TRADEABLE | FACT
- 2026-10-06 14:35 BKK (Price Predict) | CORRECTION of my 14:10 line: 0x88d25c861938a91af4ad57ad964a8fcc6c6351d3 is an exchange/bridge hot wallet (576-2,236 txs a day, balance 65-555 ETH, first funder of 1,701 traders and of creators in 16 crews) -> hook 0x6404ddb4f33b4d974e570f66288e2a7ca469a840 tag to crew 0x710cc9e8a632dbe6f4e60a86181ce336d3aadaf6 WITHDRAWN | crewexport now drops creator funders seen in 3+ crews (145, brx/shared_funders.json); pretag: 1,287 of 1,341 hop tags came through shared hot wallets, deleted (PP6 pre-tag before 14:30 BKK = noise) | pulltrig has FW A2 REPN rule; pull_daily rerun: real outsiders c2500 98-100% pulled at $10-$100, c500 83% at $3-$10 | PP3 crossing list done: 834 coins passed $500k sellable, 316 passed $1M (323 of 834 c10k), research-box /opt/sw/pp3.db cross; series builder next | Doppler hook pools 2,955 stored in v3hook.db (fixes "0 pools"), history with signers loading | FACT
- 2026-10-06 15:15 BKK (FW Analyst 3, sup-to-a3 v9; status md5 71ed5838a28509d320b1318f218759e4) | DOPPLER dead at every entry time after the fee window: +15 s / +30 s / +1 min / +5 min entries, best exit 1.5x or 15 min: -17% to -13% at $20, -28% to -25% at $100, 0/16 days up, walk forward -14% to -35%, farm filter still -11% / -24%; 1,305 of 1,344 traded pools carry extra hook 0x9982538f41f2ae29ddb9d3d9307010052984fdbb (-27% at $100) | research-box /root/fwa3 doppler2.py, xhook.py, dop2ana.py | KILLED (first-minute Doppler)
- 2026-10-06 14:30 BKK (Virality Expert V1.1 to V1.3, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v11.md) | HOUR-4 SLOW-BURN RULE KILLED: priced swap by swap ($500 fills, pulls exit at what the pool pays) +84% hourly became +31%; first half +35% avg / +34% middle, second half +2% / -26%, 21 Sep to 4 Oct -15% / -39%; hourly closes hid 50% intra-hour dips (0xf15aab29c3d22cf2b469d4a9b0c0a72f31ba0711 +1815% hourly, real stop -51% in 22 min) | overlap with v3: 1 of 58 trades; added trades -13% | bots before the v3 gate median 1 of ~500 buyers, not a filter | crew repeat wallets under 1% of new buyers after $500k | KILLED. Supervisor next ask (V5): does v3's 0.6x stop kill winners that dip and recover (reprice with stop 0.5x / 0.4x / none, both halves).
- 2026-10-06 14:40 BKK (FW Analyst 3, sup-to-a3 v10; status md5 391176e165bb6c789f01b620aae3f5a4) | WETH pond (fee 100, WETH, no hook, PosM 0x58daec3116aae6d93017baaea7749052e8a04fa7) = the same pond crews (0x0ec66d31aab7e387b2f4cda075e39f7a6a0f541b, B/C 0x4757fc41278bd0f1b028c6dae71d381dc4558d98, A 0x92a0849f9b1e9e02363a4bd8d74a317fa6ddae92, 0x20e7a901982b0acbb8cccdc9148373673e2bf6b1, 0xca24b6f1b00a7d336ef2984239daa836f17cb6c1, 0x0427e497f8075524fdc6a73ed6dfe1be958a2a56); 6 Oct they launch only ETH pond (24), WETH pond 0, nothing elsewhere: slowed, not moved | pull test outside only (pt2 REPN 5): $20 to $100 ratio 0.5 to 1.0 = pass; $5 1.3 to 1.9; crew 0x20e7a901982b0acbb8cccdc9148373673e2bf6b1 $5 3.8x | time-stop grid: 15 min best (+144% a trade at $20, 15/15 days; walk forward +162%, 7/7, n 486); 5 to 30 min all +115% to +144% | WARNING: real outside wallets in the class made +32% ($3) and -15% ($20) in the first 5 s, far below the sim: treat sim as upper bound until a live paper test | CANDIDATE (paper). Note: my hub lines dated "14:50" and "15:15 BKK" today were really 14:22 and 14:31 BKK.
- 2026-10-06 14:38 BKK (FW Analyst 2 v9, status md5 79a824e9af37c787f8a3cbdb8e99228f; scripts http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a2code/wpond.py.txt, wpull.py.txt, wret.py.txt) | WETH POND (fee 100 / spacing 1 / no hook / WETH quote) 20 Sep to 5 Oct: 3,032 pools, ALL launched via PositionManager 0x58daec3116aae6d93017baaea7749052e8a04fa7 (launch tx to, from chain) | TRAP TEST PASSES: outside buys pulled within 60 s vs crew buys same cell (crew = wallet in 2+ pools that day): $5 0.76x, $20 1.02x, $50 0.69x, $100 0.64x; by day 14/16 at or under 1.2x (25 Sep 2.76x, 28 Sep 1.76x) | BUT 80% of coins alive at first trade +4 s are pulled before +15 min (2,341 of 2,944; 70-91% a day), pulls real (100% liquidity out, never re-added, 99% no trade after) | 15 min sell, own fills no fees: mean +51%, MEDIAN 0x, survivors (20%) mean 7.35x, 15/16 days up (26 Sep -13%) = lottery; marking pulled coins at last price instead of 0 gives +206% (check A3's books) | CANDIDATE stands as a lottery, needs fees + depth + live fill check
- 2026-10-06 14:40 BKK (FW Analyst 2 v10, status md5 c3a147846a45ec30f1346ef111c7a74c; script http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a2code/wret2.py.txt) | WETH POND INDEPENDENT REBUILD ($20, entry first trade +4 s, sell all +15 min, liquidity from pool's own swaps, GMGN 1% each side, gas, pulled = 0): 2,454 trades mean +55%, MEDIAN -100%, 78% total loss, 15/16 days up (3 Oct -2%) | does NOT reproduce A3's +144%: all 3,032 class pools are PositionManager-launched, so the "PosM only +144% / others -91%" split must leak the outcome; A3's "all sources +61%" matches | real $20 outsiders -15% because they hold into pulls (80% pulled before 15 min) and the average lives in 1-in-5 survivors at ~7x | thin lottery edge, needs every-coin volume; launches ~40/day | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 14:50 BKK (FW Supervisor, judging FW Analyst 2 14:38 WETH pond check) | WETH pond = LOTTERY: our buy does not trigger pulls, but 80% of coins are pulled before 15 min; with pulled = 0 the 15 min sell averages +51% a coin, median 0 (A2); marking pulled coins at last price would give +206%, so A3's +61% / +144% must be rechecked | next: survival curve, exit grid with pulled = 0 + fees, entry delay, can pull time be predicted (A2 v13); reconcile pulled marking and "other launch sources" (A3 v12) | CANDIDATE, no go-live
- 2026-10-06 14:40 BKK (FW Analyst 3, sup-to-a3 v11; status md5 85c81d209229bfb6216abe1a3dbaba7a; research-box /root/fwa3/gap.py, gap.json) | WETH pond sim vs real gap EXPLAINED: of 58 outside $20 first-5 s wallets, 22 were in non-PosM coins (real -42%); the 36 PosM wallets made +69% real, our 15 min exit on THEIR fills +255%, sim +215%; fills match sim (0.8 s, 0.95x price) so the sim is right; gap = exit timing (10 never sold and were pulled, the rest sold early for 0 to +33% on coins up 4x to 33x at 15 min) | shape: our exit wins 10 of 36 (median -100%), mean carried by the 1 in 3 that runs, best coin removed +168%; needs many coins a day, today 3 | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 14:41 BKK (FW Analyst 3, sup-to-a3 v12; status md5 b91ef551b7ef650bdf693b5b1ce85f5a) | CORRECTION: WETH pond "+144% PosM-only" and "other sources -91%" are WRONG. The split used the day-file launches.factory column, which is empty for rows the rebuild never filled with metadata (factory, creator, name, ts all NULL) and that tracks the outcome = leak. All WETH pond pools launch via PosM (Analyst 2, launch tx to). Right number, all 2,330 pools, $20, pull before sell = 0, fees and depth in: sell at 15 min +61% a trade, median -100%, wins 22%, 16/16 days; walk forward +74%, 8/8; matches Analyst 2's +55% | TRAP for every session: never split on launches.factory / creator / name from /opt/hist/rh day files (filled later, outcome-linked); use the launch tx "to" | FACT
- 2026-10-06 14:44 BKK (FW Analyst 2 v11, status md5 3559843f3fd92b235b7f65dbbc331820; grid http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a2code/wgrid-output.txt) | WETH POND GRID (2,718 coins, $20, pulled = 0, fees, own-swap depth): pulled by 30 s 25%, 1 min 38%, 2 min 50%, 5 min 63%, 15 min 78%, 1 h 93% | walk forward picks entry +4 s / sell at 15 min: train +46% (n1,635) -> test +73% (n819), 15/16 days, median -100%; shorter holds lower (2 min +27%/+40%), 2x/3x targets cut the mean to +2-20% (median positive with 2x) | entry +8/+15 s slightly worse | pulls: no single timer (median age 118 s, bumps ~5-6 min and 15 min), 78% come within 20% of the coin's high (median 1.82x) = pull after pump | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 14:41 BKK (Virality Expert V5, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v5.md md5 a70542d4ac5ee8ca92f2c92964a47f73) | V3 RULE STOP KILLS WINNERS: spec replay swap by swap ($500, R-model fills, own pool events, 53/58 match published exit within 0.15x; my base 1.98x agrees with A2.14's 1.99x after the 0x978177408c2f741c24ddf5ea9eb14cecbf9b3926 false-pull fix) | of 34 stopped trades, 21 later hit 2x and 5 hit 5x from entry before any half-pool pull, all within 12 h | stop 0.6x A 2.07x / B 1.89x; 0.5x 2.15/1.85; 0.4x 2.08/1.96; 0.3x 2.20/2.07; NO STOP (target 5x, pull R<=0.5, 12 h) 2.20x / 2.19x; matched-only no stop 2.18/2.31 vs 2.05/1.98 | cost: pull exits avg 0.13x, median trade 0.24x vs 0.57x | entry +60 s: no stop 2.19/1.89 vs stop 0.6 2.07/1.62 (entry speed matters more) | pull at 0.7R worse (2.14/1.85) | pricer http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/code/pricer.tar.gz (md5 6d85f7bb5bfbd6eba094a0eebb1bd964) | FACT (paper, n58). Proposed to Supervisor: drop the stop (or 0.3x) in the v3 paper book.
- 2026-10-06 14:48 BKK | FW Analyst 1 V3 FIRST 15 MIN (http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-v3-first15.md md5 42df55565eccb77bbd83af12d399b245; research-box /root/fwa1/v3) | 7,158 v3 WETH pools 13 Sep..6 Oct, first 2 h from chain; 208 hit $1M (0.01+ ETH swap) within 2 h (~9/day). Fresh outside wallets (no early buy in an earlier coin, walk-forward) get back by 2 h: 1.50x if bought 0-1 min, 0.73x at 1-5 min, 0.64x at 5-15 min (0.45x on coins that never hit $1M); repeat snipers (3+ earlier coins) 1.48x in minute 0-1, 87% in profit. Only strong launch fact: mcap at 5 min $250k-$1M -> 25% / 31% hit $1M in 2 h (halves); under $250k, 20+ fresh buyers + rep1 <5% -> 13% / 14-18% vs 2.4% base | FACT: EDGE KILLED for outsider buys in v3 first 15 min; mcap-at-5-min = watch signal for the $1M gate
- 2026-10-06 14:45 BKK (Analyst 3 A3.1, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a3-1-rebuild.md) | V3 RULE INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRMED: own code, own raw chain data (8,383 pools, 5.47M events): 58 trades 1.915x (1.934x / 1.897x), 57 of 58 same coin, pool and exit as A2 | traps: army memory must exclude the coin itself (else 13 good trades blocked, 58 -> 45); entry +60 s = 1.74x (buy speed matters), late selling does not hurt | exit counts show 3 pulls (A2's old count), so out-of-range-burn question sent | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 14:55 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor, on A2.15) | v3 rule: no new venue (Pons, plain v4, Doppler hook, age 3-6 h all under 1x); rule stays v3 WETH only. Next lever is trades per day (~2.5/day now): A2.16 grid on v3 gate ($500k-$1.5M, age 1-3 h, top 0.08-0.12, army 0.009-0.015, no-stop exits, scored by $/day, walk forward); A2.17 re-entry after stop | OPEN
- 2026-10-06 15:03 BKK (FW Analyst 1 A1.14, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-v3-mc5-fragility.md md5 0a03b4d19133eb201e122063075765f9; research-box /root/fwa1/v3frag.py) | v3 mc5 FRAGILITY | CORRECTION A1.13: pull rule measured WETH added, most v3 launches add 0 WETH (token only) so it never fired; fixed to liquidity units (Burn of 50%+ of minted L): hold with no stop pulled 68/159 (H2), median 0.01x -> STOP 0.5x REQUIRED; rule at $100 1.78x H1 / 1.58x H2 ($500 1.71/1.52) | day bootstrap x1,000: all 22 days 0.0% under 1.0x (5th pct 1.24x), H1 12.7% (thin) | worst rolling 3 days -$727, worst day -$767 (28 Sep), +$12,826 on 201 trades | top 8 coins: zero Burns after entry | grid +4/+5/+6 min x bands $200k-$1.2M: all means 1.23x-1.86x; without top 3 only +5 min stays >=1.0x both halves (+4/+6 ~break even) | TRAP for every v3 pull check: use Burn liquidity units vs minted units, never WETH amounts | CANDIDATE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:06 BKK (FW Supervisor, judging A1.14) | v3 mc5 = FW LEAD CANDIDATE: passes day bootstrap (0.0% under 1.0x all days), +$12,826 / 201 trades at $100 in 22 days, worst 3 days -$727; base edge only at +5 min, stop 0.5x required | next (sup-to-a1 v12, md5 2825302f5176bc77b62605ba0b77e7f7): overlap with 2nd window w2_v3_1m (same coins = double exposure), rep1_pre self-buy check on winners, replay PP's first 10 live paper coins within 0.05x, one-page coder spec fw/a1-mc5-spec.md | go-live only after paper match; Ben decides | CANDIDATE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:10 BKK (Analyst 2) | A2.16 GATE GRID BY $/DAY (http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-16-gate-grid.md md5 6fdd14ef1965e17c92b805013da8e61d; cells sw-a2-16-cells.csv) | 96 cells (gate $500k/$750k/$1M/$1.5M x age 1/1.54/2/3 h x top .08/.10/.12 x army .009/.015), strict gates, in-range-L exits, no stop (5x, half-pool pull, 12 h) and 0.6x for comparison; A = 14-27 Sep (14 d), B = 28 Sep-6 Oct (9 d) | today's rule ($1M, 1.54 h, .08, .009): 1.9/3.4 trades a day, 2.20x/2.18x no stop, $1,158/$2,027 a day at $500 | BEST ROBUST: $1M, age 3 h, top .08, army .015: 2.6/3.8 a day, 2.09x/2.14x, $1,406/$2,152 | $750k, 3 h, top .10, army .015: 3.0/5.8 a day, 2.06x/1.75x, $1,589/$2,171, worst day -$1,878 | pure walk-forward pick on A = $500k gate: B 1.18x, $807/day = NEVER $500k | plateau flat: B $1,766-2,214/day across $750k-$1M, 1.54-3 h, top .08-.12 | no-stop median trade 0.24x in every cell (pulls) | /tmp/w2/a216 grid.py, cells.py | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:20 BKK (Analyst 2) | A2.17 RE-ENTRY (http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-17-reentry.md md5 460c4222b6512a8b25d9d4e28ad9a8ae) | second entry on an already-traded coin within 24 h of first exit (skip if pulled): with NO-STOP exits it adds nothing (new high above peak 0.23x n12 / 1.38x n14; new $1M gate after 50% drop 3 trades all pulled); with 0.6x stop: drop then new sellable $1M gate 1.56x n8 / 2.67x n4 (+$159/+$372 a day), new high 0.92x / 1.38x | mechanism: a stop creates the comeback a re-entry catches; no stop keeps it already | if book goes no-stop, drop re-entry; else keep A2.9 re-entry (1.91x/1.79x) | /tmp/w2/a217/reent.py | FACT (paper, small n)
- 2026-10-06 15:12 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor, on A2.16) | wide v3 cell ($1M gate, age <=3 h, top 0.08, army <=0.015, no stop) accepted as paper book w2_v3_wide (Coder v1.16); Analyst 3 audits V5 + this cell before the live config changes | OPEN
- 2026-10-06 15:10 BKK (FW Supervisor, on FW A1.15 http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-overlap.md) | FOR 2ND WINDOW: v3 mc5 is an EARLY ENTRY into future w2_v3_1m coins: 42 of the 58 w2 trades were mc5 buys at +5 min, mc5 made 4.99x on them vs w2 2.17x (w2 capped by 5x target); on the 159 coins w2 never traded mc5 made 0.75x (-$3,950) | combined book 22 days +$41,462 (mc5 +$12,826, w2 +$28,635), 14/22 green, worst day -$1,485, day correlation 0.41, same coin held twice 42 times | next (sup-to-a1 v13, md5 7b28d681da982d29dcd15654cbb0551d): walk-forward +5 min quality filter to drop the 112 never-$1M coins (0.46x); decide if w2 skips coins mc5 holds | CANDIDATE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:09 BKK (FW Analyst 1 A1.15/A1.16 + spec) | mc5 OVERLAP (http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-overlap.md): 42 of w2_v3_1m's 58 trades are mc5 coins; mc5 on them 4.99x (w2 2.17x, 5x-capped); mc5 on the other 159 coins 0.75x (-$3,950): ALL mc5 profit = buying future w2 coins early; of the 159, 47 hit $1M but failed w2 gate (1.45x), 112 never hit $1M (0.46x); combined book +$41,462 / 22 days, worst day -$1,485, day corr 0.41, same coin held twice 42x -> cap per token or w2 skips mc5 coins | SELF-BUY (a1-mc5-selfbuy.md): 4 of top 8 winners mostly repeat-wallet bought (rep1 0.63-1.00, incl A1.11 farm coin 0xabe99cf268cdc8bd70a71a5283fdacbcb36714fd), still paid at 2 h (34-68 ETH, no Burns); rep1 filter flips by half, rep3<5% no gain without top 3 -> no filter | coder spec http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-spec.md | NEXT LEAD: w2-style quality check at +5 min to cut the 112 never-$1M coins | CANDIDATE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:14 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor, after Analyst 3 A3.5 audit of V5) | stop 0.3x beats 0.6x in both halves in both independent rebuilds (A3: 2.13x, 2.22 / 2.05 vs 2.00x, 2.11 / 1.90; 0.4x worse than 0.6x so level is fragile) -> live exit set to the 0.3x stop book w2_v3_s03 (Coder v1.17); 0.6x and no-stop stay as paper books | DECIDED
- 2026-10-06 15:12 BKK (FW Analyst 1 A1.17, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-quality.md) | +5 min quality check for mc5 KILLED: H1-picked rule (top1 holder >=13.1% & cap slope 1-5 min >=1.049) 4.82x H1 -> 1.24x H2, $68/day, bootstrap 19% under 1.0x = overfit (H1 only 42 trades); best single (buy tx before +5 min >=142) H2 1.97x vs 1.58x base but $668 vs $769/day, keeps 47/92 never-$1M coins = second look only | w2 coins at +5 min: more buy tx (194 vs 135), more buy ETH (64 vs 34), fresh share 0.87; "1M not w2" coins (mc5 1.45x) are repeat-heavy (rep1 0.42) so repeat filters cut profit | w2 should NOT skip mc5 coins (shared 42 = ~$24.6k of w2's $28.6k); keep both, cap $600/token | FACT (paper). mc5 stays unfiltered.
- [stated] 6 Oct 15:15 BKK: Ben to FW Supervisor: aggressively push towards finding big edges and high profitability.
- 2026-10-06 15:18 BKK (FW Supervisor push, all four roles rung) | mc5 profit lives in a few huge coins, so levers are EXIT, SIZE, PROOF, LIVE SPEED: A1 v14 exit grid (time stop 2/4/8/12 h/none, trail 0.5-0.7x of peak once >2x, half at 3x + trail; H1 pick, H2 test); A2 v14 size curve $100-$3,000 with in-range tick walker ($/day peak); A3 v13 independent rebuild of mc5 from own chain data with look-ahead checks; PP v14 live-ready trader fmmc5 on firstmin-trader, test wallet 0x0184ef9b23476ed84107cc5e15485a4a7ee6b286, OFF until Ben creates /opt/fm/LIVE_MC5, $20 default, sell-sim before buy, kill switch | WETH pond parked | OPEN
- [stated] 6 Oct 15:15 BKK: Ben will fund the live wallet in a few hours; until then the Supervisor's job is to aggressively push the team towards big edges and high profitability.
- 2026-10-06 15:20 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor) | big-edge push: Virality V6 = upside capture (we sell all winners at 5x; test ladders 50% at 5x + trail, thirds at 3x/5x/trail, 70/30 hold, priced at real exit depth, both halves); Analyst 2 A2.18 = $/day size curve $100 to $10k on the new config (wide gate + 0.3x stop) to set ramp targets; Analyst 1 money map scored in outsider $/day + eth_getCode relabel of wallet lists | OPEN
- 2026-10-06 15:22 BKK (Analyst 2) | A2.18 SIZE CURVE, new config (wide gate $1M / age<=3 h / top .08 / army .015 + 0.3x instant stop, 5x, in-range pull, 12 h; fills by real tick walk at entry and exit; http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-18-size-curve.md md5 556aed99f61fa7aa13aec15366141714) | 70 trades (36 A 14 d / 34 B 9 d) | $/day A / B: $500 +1,432/+2,183; $1k +2,718/+4,156; $2k +4,901/+7,539; $3k +6,627/+10,258; $5k +8,952/+14,051 (1.70x/1.74x); peak $7.5k-$10k (+10.2k A / +16.6k B) then falls; worst 3 days B goes negative from $7.5k -> safe ceiling ~$5k | max 3 open at once -> wallet = 3 x size | 1 losing day in 23 (28 Sep, 2 pulls to 0 = 2 x stake) | knob ranking: SIZE >> exit 0.6->0.3 (+33% B at $500) > gate wide (+6% B / +22% A) ; re-entry under 0.3x stop LOSES in A (drop -$221/day, high -$392/day) -> switch A2.9 re-entry off | A2.11: no new Coder trade since CLAUS | /tmp/w2/a218 | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:25 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor; A3.6 confirmed the wide gate, A2.18 size curve) | wide gate + 0.3x stop $/day: $500 +1,432 / +2,183, $1k +2,718 / +4,156, $3k +6,627 / +10,258, $5k +8,952 / +14,051; peak $7.5k-$10k a trade; safe ceiling ~$5k; wallet = 3 x size; size is the biggest knob; re-entry off | Coder v1.18: live = wide gate + 0.3x stop; ramp v2 $100 x10 -> $500 x10 -> $1k x10 -> $2k x10 -> $3k (fills within 5% of paper, wallet >= 3 x next size, else stay at largest size covered); cap $3k until 50 live trades | DECIDED (paper basis)
- 2026-10-06 15:30 BKK (Price Predict) | fmmc5 LIVE-READY v3 mc5 trader on firstmin-trader (FW v14): LIVE OFF; ON = Ben runs touch /opt/fm/LIVE_MC5, OFF = rm -f /opt/fm/LIVE_MC5; $20 default (/opt/fm/mc5_config.json), spec a1-mc5-spec.md (T0 = first swap, cap at +300 s from last swap, seen_late >330 s, stop 0.5x on 0.01+ WETH swaps, 2 h, pull = in-range Burn units >= 50% of minted units), sell sim before buy via new SimV3 eth_call (/opt/fm/simv3.bin, matches pool math within 0.001%), kill switch (failed sell, 2 fills 10%+ worse than sim, wallet < 50% start), max 3 open; board http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/mc5live.txt | CORRECTION: pp3-cross.csv v4 crossing times were +1 day: TRAP for every session: /opt/hist/rh DAY.db kv t1 = time of the LAST block (b_end of kv blocks "b_start-b_end"); rebuilding cross + early index | FACT
- 2026-10-06 15:26 BKK (FW Analyst 1 A1.18, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-exits.md) | mc5 EXIT: 12 h of swaps+Mint/Burn pulled for 338 band pools (research-box /root/fwa1/v3/v3ext.db, dRPC getLogs max ~50k blocks per call, 120k gives 500) | H1 pick = time stop 4 h; H2 once: 1.67x vs 1.35x (2 h), $946 vs $491/day at $100, w/o top3 1.24x vs 1.00x, 9/11 green, bootstrap 0.1% under 1.0x, worst day -$721 | plateau 2.5-4.5 h beats 2 h both halves; 5 h+ fades, 12 h 0.86x | ALL trailing stops (armed 2x, 0.5/0.6/0.7 of peak) and half-at-3x lose (H1 0.73-0.94x): swap-level dips shake out runners; 1-min-close trail untested | spec updated (time stop 4 h) http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-spec.md | CANDIDATE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:24 BKK (Virality V6, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v6.md) | exit ladders, 0.3x stop: all out at 5x 2.34x / 1.88x; 50% at 5x + trail 2.23x / 2.51x; all trail after 3x 2.00x / 3.19x; halves disagree (first-half 5x coins pulled 2-8 h after peak; second half 4 coins ran 15x-74x) | no exit change; paper book w2_v3_wide_ladder (Coder v1.19); V7 = hold-or-sell signal at the 5x moment | OPEN
- 2026-10-06 15:30 BKK (Analyst 2) | live-config per-trade list for V6: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-16-wide-trades.csv (md5 4d30fcdc363ebe05079fcd54cedc5837; 70 trades of wide gate + 0.3x stop: token, pool, gate time BKK, gate block, half, entry/exit time, exit, x at $500 tick fills; 2.11x / 2.16x) | Virality Expert rung | DATA
- 2026-10-06 16:05 BKK (FW Analyst 2 v12, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a2-mc5-size.md md5 25ff119fdea811e358877ed77d3cc977; research-box /opt/fw2 mc5fetch.py, mc5size.py, mc5ext.py) | mc5 SIZE CURVE (A1's 201 trades, 2 h hold, 0.5x stop, 517,921 Swap/Mint/Burn from chain, real tick walk entry+exit, own buy kept in pool at exit) | $/trading day: $100 +626 (1.69x), $1k +5,479 (1.60x), $3k +12,296 (1.45x, worst day -15.2k, worst 3 d -10.4k), $5k +14,836 (1.32x), PEAK $7.5k +16,717 (1.24x, worst day -40k), $10k +14,744, $15k second half red | without top 3 coins profit flat $3k-7.5k (~+$115-119k), $10k +$39k | lower bound (own buy ignored, A1/A2.14 style) peaks $2,250 (+$6.4k), red at $5k; it wrongly pays 0 on coins at their launch floor | TRAP for every tick-walk sim: on single-sided launches near the floor the only WETH in the pool is ours, so exits must include our own buy | recommend $1k-2k first live, cap $3k a coin until live quote vs fill picks the model | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:29 BKK (FW Supervisor) | mc5 time stop 4 h ADOPTED (A1.18); PP v16 sets fmmc5 + paper book to 14400 s (2 h column kept); A3 v14 rebuild reports both; A1 v15 = more trades a day (+10/+15 min checkpoints, bands $500k-$3M, +5 min $1M-$2M, one position per token, H1 pick / H2 test) | fmmc5 live-ready, OFF until Ben touches /opt/fm/LIVE_MC5 | OPEN. NOTE: hub-8 near cap, next lines go to trading-edge-hub-9.
- [stated] 2026-10-06 15:30 Bangkok, Analyst 1 A1.13 money map ($500 real fills, real outsider exits, $ a day, 13 Sep to 5 Oct): only v3 pays in both halves. v3 rule own exits +$1,670/day (A +$1,759, B +$1,601, 81% days); outsiders buying 30 min after the $1M gate +$1,291/day (A +$2,013, B +$730). No v4 cell is a big edge: shallow pools (Pons about 4 ETH virtual depth, about 5% cost each way on $500), median outsider loses in every v4 cell, fast cells (first 2 min c10k, other, c500) lose $39k to $52k/day. Watch only: v4 no-hook fee 3000/spacing 60 after $500k, +$1,776/day but B +$150, median coin 0.63x, 5 coins = 91% of gain. getCode fix: the 6 A1.11 "farm wallets" were the coin token contracts; rep1_pre result unchanged (49 coins 2.08x). http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-13-money-map.md
- [stated] 6 Oct 15:33 BKK PP: FW A1.18 done, mc5 time stop 4 h (fmmc5 config 14400, LIVE off; v3mc5 holds 4 h with 2 h column kept). pp-to-sup v11. pp3cross2 rebuild still running.
- 2026-10-06 15:35 BKK (FW A1 A1.19, fw/a1-mc5-cells.md) | extra mc5 cells (+5m $1M-2M, +10m/+15m $500k-2M, $1M-3M; stop 0.5x, 4 h) FAIL: new coins lost on H1 (3-9 each); H2 hints +5m $1M-2M 1.80x n19, +10m $500k-2M 1.46x n20 = paper watch only; +15m dead | base 4 h: H1 2.66x $536/day, H2 2.05x $1,386/day | KILLED (cells)