---
name: trading-edge-hub-9
description: Trading edge hub ledger part 9 (continues trading-edge-hub-8, at its cap): from 6 Oct 2026 15:30 BKK. Read with [[trading-edge-hub]] and [[trading-edge-hub-8]] before any buy/sell call; append new trading insights here.
sources: [cowork]
---
- 2026-10-06 15:30 BKK (FW Supervisor) | hub-8 reached its cap; new lines go here. Current FW lead: v3 mc5 (buy v3 WETH coin at first swap +5 min if cap $250k-$1M, stop 0.5x, time stop 4 h, no take profit; spec http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-spec.md); live-ready trader fmmc5 OFF until Ben creates /opt/fm/LIVE_MC5 | CANDIDATE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:30 BKK (Analyst 1 A1.13 money map, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-13-money-map.md) | outsider $/day at $500 real depth: only v3 cells pay in both halves (v3 rule +$1,670/day; v3 buy within 30 min after the $1M gate with outsiders' real exits +$1,291); every v4 class fails in dollars (shallow pools ~5% in + 5% out at $500; median outsider loses); first-minute cells lose most (c10k -$52k/day, other -$41k, c500 -$39k) | A1.11 "farm wallets" were token addresses (eth_getCode); filter unchanged | KILLED: v4 for outsiders. Next A1.14: where v3 coins come from and whether that flow is growing | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:31 BKK (2nd Window Coder v1.19) | paper book w2_v3_wide_ladder live (wide gate, 0.3x stop, 50% at 5x, rest on 50% trail / pull / 48 h) | LIVE (paper)
- [stated] 6 Oct 15:35 BKK: Ben, on the second-window live bot: "for now i'm fine with 2000 per day, let's establish that first."
- 2026-10-06 15:40 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor) | target $2,000/day -> Coder v1.20: ramp capped at $1k a trade ($100 x10 -> $500 x10 -> $1k and stay); A2.18 paper at $1k +$2,718 / +$4,156 a day, at $500 +$1,432 / +$2,183; wallet need ~3 x $1k + gas; scoreboard gets a "Target $2,000 a day" card (live today, live 7-day average, paper line) | DECIDED
- 2026-10-06 ~15:28 BKK (FW Analyst 2, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a2-mc5-size.md; line stamped "16:05" by mistake) | mc5 SIZE CURVE (2 h stop, real tick depth, 201 trades): $/day peaks ~$7,500 a trade (+$16.7k a trading day, 1.24x) but above $5k gain = top 3 coins only; $3k 1.45x (1.74x / 1.37x halves), +$12.3k a trading day, worst day -$15.2k; $5k 1.32x, worst day -$25.3k; lower-bound model peaks $2,250 | $100 check vs A1 1.69x vs 1.64x; 6 s late fill not worse | FW Supervisor: first live ramp target $1k-$2k a coin, cap $3k until live fill vs quote confirms; A2 v15 reruns with 4 h stop + ramp gates | CANDIDATE (paper). Test wallet 0x0184ef9b23476ed84107cc5e15485a4a7ee6b286 holds 0.04373 ETH ($118) = 5 trades at $20.
- 2026-10-06 15:38 BKK, server clock (FW Analyst 2 v13 status, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a2-mc5-size.md md5 eed216bd7f7a15552f13d60913223ad2; research-box /opt/fw2 mc5fetch4h.py, mc5v15.py) | mc5 SIZE CURVE WITH 4 H STOP, 201 trades, real tick walk, both models: $100 main 2.20x / lower 2.12x; $1k 2.04x / 1.89x (+$9.5k / +$8.2k a trading day); $2k 1.89x / 1.72x (+$16.3k / +$13.1k, lower-bound $/day peak); $3k 1.76x / 1.45x (lower worst 3 days -$29k); $5k lower breaks 1.02x (H2 0.91x) | 4 h lifts every size and makes the lower bound green to $3k | H1 at $100 matches A1.18 (2.66x / 2.53x vs 2.56x); my H2 higher because A1 dropped the four 6 Oct trades (a 40x and a 16x, all finished) | RAMP GATES (fills, not PnL: 3 in 4 trades lose): $100 x10, $500 x10, $1k x20, $2k until 50 live trades; $3k only if median fill gap <=2% and real sells side with the main (own buy kept) quote; step down on median gap >3% over 10 or two 10%+ misses; kill on failed sell | Clock fix: my 2 h line was ~15:28, not 16:05 | CANDIDATE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:35 BKK (FW Analyst 1 A1.19, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-cells.md) | more mc5 checkpoints/bands: NO new cell passes H1; H2-only adds (+5 min $1M-$2M 1.80x +$127/day, +10 min $500k-$2M 1.46x +$77, +10 min $1M-$3M 1.31x +$62) -> paper watch only; +15 min cells dead | base mc5 at 4 h incl 6 Oct: H1 2.66x ($536/day at $100), H2 2.05x ($1,386/day) | FW Supervisor: A1 v16 = nightly edge-health alarm fw/mc5-health.txt (HEALTHY / WEAK 7-day <1.2x / DEAD <1.0x) + live replay match; PP v17 logs the 3 watch cells paper-only | CANDIDATE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:40 BKK (Price Predict, FW v16 + v17) | mc5 time stop 4 h live in fmmc5 config (LIVE off) and v3mc5 paper (2 h result kept per trade) | A1.19 three watch cells added to v3mc5, PAPER ONLY (+5 min $1M-$2M; +10 min $500k-$2M; +10 min $1M-$3M), one position per token, base wins; own section on http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/v3mc5.txt; mock test: flat round trip costs 4% | LIVE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 15:45 BKK, server clock (FW Analyst 2 v14 status, audit http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a2-fmmc5-audit.md md5 32e077e65e9f96a2b19e29f704aae66a) | LIVE BOT fmmc5 AUDIT (firstmin-trader /opt/fm/fm_mc5.py md5 f817e76033812c7c45ee2c7d3fe19594) = NOT READY: (1) wrong Mint topic 0x7a53080ba414158be7ec69b987b5fb7d07dee101fe85488084aa1b8540a0d8a3 (real keccak 0x7a53080ba414158be7ec69b987b5fb7d07dee101fe85488f0853ae16239d0bde) so minted units stay 0 and the pull rule never fires; (2) restore() only rebuilds pools from the last 3 h but trades last 4 h, so an older open trade is never sold after a restart; (3) 50% wallet kill counts open trades as lost (fires on the 3rd $20 trade with the $118 test wallet); also slippage 30%, sell judged failed after 4 s then untracked, no sell fill vs quote log, max-open race, 0.80 round trip filter untested at $1k+, one-range stop math | rest matches spec | ramp gate spec with config keys for PP in the doc | TRAP for every bot: verify event topics by keccak of the signature at startup | FACT
- 2026-10-06 15:44 BKK (FW Supervisor) | CORRECTION of my 15:42 message to Ben ("safe to switch on at $20"): fmmc5 is NOT safe until A2's 3 blockers are fixed; Ben told not to flip LIVE_MC5 | PP v18 (sup-to-pp md5 acb89542afd0c305faab3a3601f8a74c): fix Mint topic, restart rebuild of open trades from db, wallet kill on realised loss + open quote, plus the 6 others and the ramp gate spec; prove each fix in watch mode | OPEN
- 2026-10-06 15:50 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor) | replay58 pass 1 (Coder): v3 edge holds on real swaps; avg per trade A / B: Analyst 2 1.91x / 1.90x, Coder spec 2.11x / 1.94x, real swap $500 2.09x / 1.91x, real $2k 1.93x / 1.78x; 53 of 57 within 0.05x | TRAP: 3 stop exits fill 0.10x to 0.37x on real swaps vs 0.57x line (0xf5a9da666eb257c0859b47efe8c2cb6745baff94, 0x89262fb9d6b05de797c99a927994f7c2411469d4, 0x2a6efa703d8f1f06da07d1960711f02b1ba66f10): price stops on the next real swap | go-live check 2 green when gaps explained + live book real swap at $1k >=1.5x both halves (Coder v1.21); Coder also told to verify Mint/Burn topics by keccak at startup (FW fmmc5 bug) | OPEN
- 2026-10-06 15:45 BKK (Virality Expert V6 + V7, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v6.md, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v7.md) | V6 exit ladders on 57 v3 trades (stop 0.3x, depth-priced sells, empty-pool coin 0x0f526bdc56d1d764bd744412c1aba039c3728b76 removed): all out at 5x A 2.34x / B 1.88x; 50% at 5x + trail A 2.23x / B 2.51x; all trail after 3x 2.00x / 3.19x -> no fixed ladder wins both halves (A: 5x coins pulled 2 to 8 h after peak; B: 4 coins ran 15x to 74x unpulled 48 h) | V7 REGIME SIGNAL at the 5x moment: hold whole position on 50% trail if >=30% of resolved 5x trades from the last 4 days (5x hit 12 h+ earlier) would have paid more held, else sell all at 5x -> A 2.34x (never holds), B 3.09x; walk-forward but only ONE regime switch (~27 to 28 Sep) | proposed paper book w2_v3_regime | CANDIDATE (paper). V4 fair-list check: 14 of 43 pp3 $5M+ coins are event-less clones of 0xa604bed22a88ae9814476997a619c6eb876f2cc7 (no Transfer logs) = untestable; asked PP to flag.
- 2026-10-06 15:55 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor) | V7 accepted as paper book w2_v3_regime (Coder v1.22): prior 5x trades count only once their held version has FULLY exited (lookahead fix); Analyst 3 audits V7 incl. cost of wrong holds after a switch back | go-live check 2 yardstick changed: R-model match with A2 or A3 on 51+ of 57 (MET, 0 unexplained) + end-of-block real-swap money test, live book at $1k >=1.5x both halves; end-of-block quote = what live actually gets; stop gaps are real costs, kept in every number | DECIDED
- 2026-10-06 15:50 BKK (FW Analyst 1 A1.20, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-health.md) | EDGE ALARM LIVE http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/mc5-health.txt (research-box cron 03:30 BKK mc5health.py 7, main pulls */20 /opt/swbus/a1health.sh): first run HEALTHY, 7 days 89 trades mean 2.39x, +$1,772/day at $100; vs research code same coins, 90/95 within 0.05x | LIVE MATCH coin 1 MISMATCH: PP bought pool 0x6dbe8d8c824ed0d9276c1cc59cd5bf7a53677923 at "$271k" cap with 0.0004 WETH (one 0.0004 ETH swap) -> 0.09x; my rule skips it | NEW DUST GUARD (spec): before +5 min need a 0.001+ WETH price-moving swap AND pool WETH >=0.1: backtest drops 22 of 201 trades at 0.52x, H1 1.86x->2.39x, H2 1.58x->1.65x (2 h stop) | TRAP: sell cap must include our own buy's WETH in the pool | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 16:00 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor) | A3.7 audit of V7 (http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a3-7-v7-audit.md): PAPER ONLY. Own rebuild $1k: half A 2.16x sell vs 2.11x V7; half B 2.00x vs 2.67x ($3,441 vs $5,757/day); one hold still open (0xc38c332012a9116dcade0c7f43b5d3c71799a9f8 at 12.87x). First 3 holds after the 27 Sep switch cost -$1,418 at $500; flip-back worst case ~-$3,900 (trail) to -$7,200 (pulls) per 3 wrong holds at $500. Live only after paper sees a switch back costing <=3 holds | FACT. CASCADE TRAP (Coder): 3 of 33 stops are a sell cascade inside ONE block (18 to 119 router sells via 0xcaf681a66d020601342297493863e78c959e5cb2); live can only sell next block, so real 0.10x/0.15x/0.37x; no price stop helps; A2.19 hunts a pre-cascade warning | OPEN. Coder topic keccak check at startup: ok.
- 2026-10-06 15:55 BKK (Analyst 1 A1.14, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-14-v3-source.md) | WHERE v3 GATE COINS COME FROM: two copy-paste launch kits (dev deploys own copy, launches seconds later): Kit A bytecode 0e81be52d5cf 41% of 107 launches reached $1M gate (stopped 1 Oct); Kit B bytecode 89885b75fd29 20% of 140 (live, 14 to 50 a day); everything else 0.6% (Uniswap position manager 0x73991a25c818bf1f1128deaab1492d45638de0d3 0.4%) | flow flat ~4 wide coins/day but 58% of last 7 days from Kit B = single point of failure | Kit B funded via disperse contract 0x84157d3d24630c297849c84d49ae7f1805c1b60f (deployer 4 to 28 ETH + 0.01 ETH gas wallets that buy 26% to 38% of pre-gate ETH = dev bundle) | no second venue (0 v4 launches, no Base/Arb/BSC activity) | rep1_pre skip COSTS $302/day on wide cell (KILLED as skip) | 1.4 to 1.5 ETH farm = 0x3393cab3fcfc5668b46d83b89f924c01f00aa766 (also funded Kit A deployers), its coins still 1.46x on rule -> tag only | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 16:05 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor, from A1.14 http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-14-v3-source.md) | v3 $1M coins come from two launch kits: Kit A (bytecode hash 0e81be52d5cf, 107 launches, 41% reach $1M, stopped 1 Oct, funder tree 0x3393cab3fcfc5668b46d83b89f924c01f00aa766 also farm-bought its own coins) and Kit B (89885b75fd29, 140 launches since 1 Oct, 20% reach $1M vs 0.6% all other launches, 58% of last 7 days' wide-rule coins, avg 2.44x); every Kit B deployer funded 1 to 2 s before launch by 0x84157d3d24630c297849c84d49ae7f1805c1b60f -> Kit B known at block zero; Kit B dev bundle (0.01 ETH gas wallets) = 26% to 38% of pre-gate ETH | KILLED: rep1_pre skip (-$302/day); farm skip (farm coins still 1.46x) | RISK: if Kit B stops, flow halves -> PP live counter | NEXT: A1.15 early Kit B entry priced; shared with FW Supervisor for mc5 split | FACT
- 2026-10-06 16:15 BKK (Virality Expert V6/V7 on A2.16 wide list, 69 trades, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v6w.md) | $500 A / B: all out at 5x 2.25x / 1.88x ($1,612 / $1,620 a day); 50% at 5x + trail 2.17x / 2.71x ($1,509 / $3,127); regime rule 2.16x / 3.45x ($1,491 / $4,500); $1k regime $2,833 / $8,640 vs all-out $3,068 / $3,054 | on the wide list the regime rule costs 0.09x in A (its first 2 hold calls at the end of A lost) and adds +1.57x in B; no exit beats all-out-at-5x in A | stops in my pricer exit on the real crossing swap at depth (flagged 3: 0.29x stop, 0.30x pull, 0.44x pull) | CANDIDATE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 16:01 BKK (Analyst 2 A2.19, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-19-cascade.md md5 63375fed4a7617a6091d8b725d9b46b0) | CASCADE: NO WARNING WORKS. 9 live-visible pre-cascade warnings (net sell 60 s vs pool ETH 10-50%, sell counts vs buys, drawdown from peak) priced on all 70 wide trades at $1k real depth, sell next block: none raises $/day in both halves (best -$49 / +$53); catching cascades cuts 6-26 winners | under the live 0.3x stop, end-of-block pricing costs only +$12 / -$57 a day at $1k (2.06x / 2.09x) | 4 of 33 stops cascade (adds 0xfe0f309cee96912d9926b8f0786fe3347364e678 block 79896014), ALL in half B | WHO: 3 are fresh-wallet farms (119-208 single-use wallets, one buy each, never seen in any of 300 coins, all sell in the same 0.1 s via SwapRouter02 0xcaf681a66d020601342297493863e78c959e5cb2); 0x89262fb9d6b05de797c99a927994f7c2411469d4 = one gatherer wallet (~200 transfers in, active in 114 coins) selling in 18 chunks | gate features (fresh single-buy share, buy-size spread) do NOT separate them from winners; only lead left: common ETH funder (needs address history; blockscout API blocks the container) | ask: 0xa2508b15ab16826c720631b9afa0a90c453ae8a4 one swap 1.91x -> 0.028x in my data vs Coder/A3 0.573x | /tmp/w2/a219 | FACT (paper): cascades are a fixed cost
- 2026-10-06 16:10 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor, Virality V6 wide http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v6w.md, 69 wide trades, depth-priced, $1k) | all out at 5x: 2.19x / 1.83x, $3,068 / $3,054 a day, worst day +$714 / -$2,000 | ladder (b) 50% at 5x + 50% trail: 2.13x / 2.64x, $2,915 / $6,023, worst day +$1,493 / -$2,000 | regime rule: 2.10x / 3.36x, $2,833 / $8,640 (costs 0.09x in half A on the wide list: first 2 holds after the switch lost) | A3.8 asked to audit switching LIVE exit to fixed ladder (b): switch if half A $/day drop <=5%, worst day not worse, half B gains | CANDIDATE
- 2026-10-06 16:04 BKK (Price Predict, FW v18 + v19) | fmmc5 v2 (watch, LIVE off): A2 audit blockers fixed (v3 Mint topic 0x7a53080ba414158be7ec69b987b5fb7d07dee101fe85488f0853ae16239d0bde + start self test; restart rebuilds every open trade; wallet kill = realised + open at quote; slippage 5/10/30; sell retried until gone; sell quote vs fill log; locked max open; $1k round trip logged; exact v3 tick walk matches SimV3 to 6 digits; ramp gate keys, use_ramp false) + dust guard A1.20 in fmmc5 and v3mc5 (0x6dbe8d8c824ed0d9276c1cc59cd5bf7a53677923 marked dust) + time stop from entry, not T0 (correction) | TRAP: SimV3 eth_call from the test wallet fails at any size above its balance; simulate from a dummy caller with a balance override | proofs http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/pp-mc5v2-tests.txt | LIVE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 16:02 BKK, server clock (FW Analyst 2 v15 status, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a2-fmmc5-reaudit.md md5 7236e76a366f5da01582670e9fb257d7) | fmmc5 v2 RE-AUDIT (md5 2799e398434a20375be68d0e9589da42): all 9 audit items fixed in code + proof (live PULLs now fire: 0xcf0a781da4772012160e349215c35ee88a0ddeda, 0xb8af113ff19154f6392ad19775719574698a190a) | READY FOR $20 LIVE: NO until 2 small items: (1) A1.20 dust guard (0.001+ WETH swap before +5 min AND pool WETH >=0.1) not in entry(); (2) feed (eth_blockNumber + eth_getLogs, which fire stops and pulls) still public RPC only (fast=False), so 429s can pause a stop | first pool created vs first that trades = harmless (0 of 201 trades; 38 of 7,166 tokens have 2+ WETH pools) | watch: 0x44b29b737ba49fd3ec95de5d4684998fdd6e4a7c skipped as sell_sim_fail at $305k cap but sims clean later | FACT
- 2026-10-06 16:15 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor, A2.19 http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-19-cascade.md) | KILLED: pre-cascade warning. 9 live-visible warnings on 70 wide trades at $1k: none raises $/day in both halves (they cut 6 to 26 winners). Cascades = 120 to 200 single-use fresh wallets (or one aggregator) selling inside one block; no seller shared across cascades; gate-time fresh-wallet share does not separate them from winners. 4 of 33 stops cascade (all in half B), cost ~-$77/day at $1k: fixed cost. Only lead left: shared ETH funder of the fresh wallets (needs address history). Next A2.20: $/day vs fill delay (2 to 30 s) to set go-live check 3 | FACT
- 2026-10-06 16:15 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor, A3.8 http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a3-8-ladder-b.md) | KEEP live exit = all out at 5x. A3 rebuild, wide gate, 0.3x stop, $1k: (a) $2,666 / $3,687 a day, worst day +$207 / -$2,000; ladder (b) $2,362 / $5,667, worst day -$781 / -$2,000; (b) loses 11% in half A (limit 5%) and has a worse half-A worst day | (b) stays paper (w2_v3_wide_ladder) | DECIDED
- 2026-10-06 16:05 BKK (Analyst 1 A1.15, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-15-kit-early.md) | BUY KIT COINS EARLY = NO: no early cell (first outside swap +5 s, cap $250k, $500k sellable; exits 5x / at $1M / half+5x; $100/$500/$1k, real v3 depth, next-block stop fills) beats the wide $1M gate in both halves. Kit B insiders (deployer + 0.01 ETH bundle wallets) sell more ETH than they bought before $1M in 93% of launches (median 5.9x their buy); only 24% of Kit B coins reach $1M; $250k+5x: Kit A +$2,698/day but Kit B -$698/day (wide +$2,035 / +$2,982 same days); Kit B first-swap->$1M +$8,394/day is two coins (77x, 71x) = lottery | 30 of 36 wide kit trades (83%) are also FW mc5 entries -> cap combined exposure per coin | KILLED (early Kit entry); FACT
- 2026-10-06 16:04 BKK (Analyst 2 A2.20, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-20-fill-delay.md md5 77d65f50d42732eeccb403fc0cdd888b) | FILL DELAY COST (70 wide trades, 0.3x stop, block-end exits, $1k depth): every delay 2 s to 300 s keeps $/day >= $2,000 both halves (6 s 2,721 / 4,091; 30 s 2,743 / 3,616; 60 s 2,753 / 3,617; 120 s 2,686 / 2,617) | up to 45 s the only swing is knife-edge coin 0x6c963ce1aff02c18b2d0ef81b96df77b2f53c4ee (0.14x or 4.65x by the second); without it B 2.00-2.01x, A 2.06-2.08x for 2-45 s | leak starts at 60 s (B 1.88x, 0x0d974113699e786f4fc56d760ec7f5270b147a88 misses 5x), 120 s 1.69x | exits measured from the fill make delay cheap under 0.3x stop | suggested go-live check 3: fill within 30 s | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 16:20 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor) | A2.20 (http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-20-fill-delay.md): fill delay 2 s to 45 s costs nothing at $1k (spread is one knife-edge coin 0x6c963ce1aff02c18b2d0ef81b96df77b2f53c4ee); real cost starts at 60 s, -$1,500/day by 120 s -> go-live check 3 changed from 6 s to 30 s (CLAUS 20.6 s passes) | DECIDED. A1.15 (http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-15-kit-early.md): KILLED early Kit B entry; Kit B insiders cash out before $1M on 93% of launches (median 5.9x); Kit B $250k entry + 5x = -$698/day at $500 (Kit A +$2,698); the $1M gate's edge is waiting until the dev is done. 83% of wide-rule kit trades are also FW mc5 entries -> Coder caps combined live size per token at $1k, never sells in same block as FW bot; FW asked to split mc5 by kit | FACT
- 2026-10-06 16:10 BKK (Analyst 2 A2.21, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-21-honest-money.md md5 99c83424f55120fc5fd30bd89585e822) | HONEST MONEY LINE (wide gate, buy gate+30 s, 0.3x stop, every exit sold at END of the NEXT block incl. cascades, real tick depth, 70 trades): $/day A / B: $500 +1,440 / +1,862; $1k +2,733 / +3,535 (CLEARS $2,000 both halves); $2k +4,921 / +6,368; $3k +6,647 / +8,597 | $1k worst day 0 / -3,161, worst 3 days 0 / +2,684, max drawdown -4,257 / -4,700 | frictions cost B ~$620/day vs A2.18 (next-block sell -$164, 30 s entry + knife-edge coin rest), A unchanged | 0xa2508b15ab16826c720631b9afa0a90c453ae8a4 gap = 1% entry-cap difference on a 0.6x knife edge (my low 0.605x, Coder 0.593x), irrelevant under 0.3x stop | /tmp/w2/a221/honest.py | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 16:06 BKK (Analyst 2) | liqbuild on research-box: service active, liqbuild2.py pid 13711 at 88% CPU, but no log line since 13:21 BKK and liqlock.db (21 GB + 7 GB WAL) not written since 13:22 BKK = stuck in one step; hold-or-sell cross-check still waits; noted for PP in sw-analyst2-status.md, re-check 17:10 BKK | OPEN
- 2026-10-06 16:25 BKK (Virality Expert V8, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v8.md) | KIT SPLIT OF THE 26 WIDE 5x EVENTS (kit by pool-creator bytecode, A1.14 hashes): held/sold Kit A half A 1.34 (3 of 5 better), Kit B half B 2.40 (4 of 6), position-manager / other half A 0.68 (0 of 10) | RULE "at 5x hold on 50% trail if Kit A or Kit B, else sell all" beats all-out-at-5x in BOTH halves: $500 2.48x / 3.15x ($1,905 / $3,934 a day) vs 2.25x / 1.88x ($1,612 / $1,620); $1k $3,638 / $7,546 vs $3,068 / $3,054 | the half-A "sell regime" was mostly position-manager launches pulled after peak | 13 kit holds only; Kit A stopped 1 Oct -> live form is "Kit B hold, else sell"; proposed paper book w2_v3_kit_hold | CANDIDATE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 16:20 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor, A2.21 http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-21-honest-money.md) | HONEST MONEY LINE, all frictions priced (wide gate, buy gate+30 s, 0.3x stop, every exit at end of next block incl. cascades, tick depth, 1% fee each way), 70 trades: $1k = +$2,733 / +$3,535 a day, worst day 0 / -$3,161, max drawdown -$4,257 / -$4,700; $500 +$1,440 / +$1,862; $2k +$4,921 / +$6,368 (dd -$9.4k); $3k +$6,647 / +$8,597 (dd -$14.1k) | frictions cost ~$620/day in half B vs A2.18 | FIX: old "wallet under 50%" kill would trip in a normal dip -> Coder v1.26: kill when drawdown > 10 x ticket; ticket sized so wallet >= 8 x ticket + gas (3 open + 5 drawdown room) -> $1k needs ~$8k wallet | DECIDED
- 2026-10-06 16:15 BKK (Analyst 1 A1.16, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-16-cascade-funders.md) | CASCADE FUNDERS: all 60 traced sellers (20 per fresh-wallet cascade: 0x2a6efa703d8f1f06da07d1960711f02b1ba66f10, 0xf5a9da666eb257c0859b47efe8c2cb6745baff94, 0xfe0f309cee96912d9926b8f0786fe3347364e678) first funded via disperse contract 0x84157d3d24630c297849c84d49ae7f1805c1b60f (one caller per coin) | spread check 793 single-buy wallets: 23 of 70 wide coins are farm-funded (all-or-nothing; 14 of 15 Kit B + 11 others, 0 Kit A), and they did BETTER in half B (2.40x vs 1.81x); skipping them costs ~$1,974/day half B vs cascade cost ~$77 | KILLED as skip; tag farm_funded only; re-check if >1 in 4 farm coins cascade | FACT
- 2026-10-06 16:25 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor, A1.16 http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-16-cascade-funders.md) | All 60 traced cascade sellers (3 coins) were funded by the Kit B disperse contract 0x84157d3d24630c297849c84d49ae7f1805c1b60f (selector 0xe63d38ed), one caller per coin, 2 min to 5 h before the cascade. But 23 of 70 wide coins are "farm-funded" (all-or-nothing; 14 of 15 Kit B + 11 others, no Kit A) and they did BETTER in half B (2.40x vs 1.81x) though worse in half A (1.79x vs 2.14x, 3 coins); 3 of 23 cascaded vs 0 of 47 | KILLED: farm-funded skip (-$1,974/day half B at $500 vs ~$77 cascade cost). farm_funded tag added for tracking; A1.17 hunts an at-gate size tilt that works in both halves | FACT
- 2026-10-06 16:20 BKK (Analyst 1 A1.17, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-17-size-tilt.md) | SIZE TILT HUNT on 70 wide trades ($1k base, 1.5x/0.5x equal total stake, walk forward A<->B): NONE SHIPS. Closest: fast gate (<=60 min launch to $1M) up both halves (A +$6,656 vs +$5,412/day, B +$4,634 vs +$4,142) but half A worst day +$223 -> -$1,687; walk-forward cut unstable (68 vs 35 min); gate before 08:00 BKK same effect (those gate in median 33 vs 63 min). Farm-funded and Kit B flip between halves; deployer ETH, pre-gate buyers, pool ETH at gate lose | paper tags min_to_gate, gate_hour; retest on half C | KILLED (tilts), CANDIDATE (paper)
- 2026-10-06 16:25 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor, A1.17 http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-17-size-tilt.md) | KILLED for now: every at-gate size tilt (1.5x / 0.5x, equal stake, walk forward) fails "$/day up both halves AND worst day no worse": fast gate (<=60 min launch to $1M) closest (+$164 B / +$1,166 A walk-forward, but half-A worst day -$590 vs +$223); gate hour similar (likely same effect); farm-funded and Kit B flip between halves; pool ETH, buyer count, deployer size lose | PRE-REGISTERED: fast gate cut = 60 min, retest only on half C (gates from 7 Oct) at 30+ trades | paper tags min_to_gate, gate_hour | FACT
- 2026-10-06 16:30 BKK (2nd Window Supervisor, Virality V9 http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v9.md) | KILLED: X-before-gate filter. 57 of 69 wide coins had ZERO X posts (by full CA) in 24 h before the $1M gate (after-gate search finds 53 of 69, so silence is real); pre-gate posts are bots (DexScreener Paid, trending, vote, scam alert); skipping loud coins loses $/day in half A; DexScreener paid profile before gate also not a filter; X posts in first hour after gate flip sign between halves | X follows price on these coins, never leads | FACT
- 2026-10-06 16:28 BKK, server clock (FW Analyst 2 v16 status md5 abefd78ceb24636a0aa49f80250cb3ce) | fmmc5 md5 e128f7a48decad7b5fcde2884bd570ad: READY FOR $20 LIVE: YES. Dust guard in entry(); feed (blockNumber + getLogs) via feed_res(): paid first, public fallback, order flips after a 30 s stall | fix before the $500 step: paid RPC fails 2 of 3 feed calls (16:27:52 window fast 13 ok, public 26, failed 26) and feed still shows 10 to 22 s gaps (likely dRPC getLogs address x block limit; split the call) | FACT
- 2026-10-06 16:31 BKK (FW Supervisor) | GO-LIVE DECISION fmmc5 at $20: A2 YES on e128f7a48decad7b5fcde2884bd570ad; PP then shipped 106a7baf1034505f20ec75cd325af02e (16:29, A2's pre-$500 fix: dRPC getLogs split to addresses x blocks <=190k, stop check off feed thread; on_swap already ignores non-open pools so entry unchanged) | verified on server: active, self test PASS, LIVE_MC5 absent, first 60 s on new build drpc 102 calls 0 failed, max gap 3.3 s (was 10 to 22 s), live PULL fired 16:30:40 on 0x4d0cdf5cc80b920f0a0e7206e2eba124b117dfa0 | sent Ben the ON command | TRAP: re-check md5 after any audit "YES", builds move fast | DECIDED
- 2026-10-06 16:38 BKK: SW go-live check 2(b) GREEN. Replay pass 2, live book w2_v3_wide_s03 end-of-block real swaps at $1k: half A 2.14x (27 trades), half B 2.04x (30); without top 3 winners 1.82x / 1.74x; median trade 0.28x (edge is fat tail). All 3 go-live checks green; only blocker = funding wallet 0x04a057D15bd07581DC88b0a37E41EB69Ceb8C2D3 (0.30 ETH for $100, 1.48 for $500, 2.95 for $1k). Live turns on by itself when funded.
- 2026-10-06 16:40 BKK (Virality Expert V4 v0.3, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v4.md) | V4 redone on PP's fixed pp3-cross v1.10 (exact block times, nolog clones dropped, c10k dropped, first crossing per token): 50 fair coins past $500k sellable that peaked $5M+, 23 at $20M+ | at hour 8 the $20M+ coins still pull NEW buyers in hours 4 to 8 (18 vs 2.5 an hour half A; 43 vs 3 half B) with bigger median buys ($24 vs $9; $142 vs $7); hour-1 new buyers do NOT separate (44 vs 99; 41 vs 41) = slow burn confirmed on the fair list | half B has only 3 coins at $20M+; list holds only $5M+ coins | money test on ALL fair $500k coins (rule: >=10 new buyers/h and median buy >=$20 in hours 4 to 8, buy at hour 8, swap by swap) waits for PP's pp3-series rerun | CANDIDATE (description)
- 2026-10-06 16:42 BKK (FW Analyst 1 A1.21, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-kits.md) | mc5 BY LAUNCH KIT (A1.14 labels: 818 pools PM 533, other 96, Kit B 95, Kit A 94; research-box /root/fwa1/v3/kit.json) | split 4 h, $100: H2 Kit A 2.03x ($532/day), Kit B 2.21x ($635, money mostly 5-6 Oct; through 4 Oct only 1.12x n35), PM 0.18x n5 (PM carried H1 5.97x), other 3.00x | KIT EXITS LOSE on mc5 entries: 50% trail from 3x/5x 48 h Kit A 1.53/1.55x vs 2.03x, Kit B 0.81/0.82x vs 1.12x; hold 48 h 0.32x/0.42x | skip non-kit ($680 vs $979/day H2) and Kit B wide band $150k-$2M ($913) cut money; non-kit sell-at-5x loses both halves | H1 pick (2 H1 kit trades) failed H2 $558 vs $979 | KILLED (kit exits/entries for mc5); base unchanged; V8 kit hold is a gate-entry idea only | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 16:47 BKK (FW Supervisor, from FW A2 16:34 wallet math) | mc5 normal max drawdown ~15 tickets (201 trades replayed in time order, 4 h stop, max 3 open; worst day 4 to 7 tickets) -> "50% of wallet" kill trips in a normal dip | DECIDED: PP v21 changes fmmc5 kill to drawdown > 20 tickets (kill_dd_tickets 20); wallet needed = 24 tickets + gas: $100 step $2,400, $500 $12,000, $1k $24,000; $118 test wallet at $20 = plumbing test only | fmmc5 a4b285c20a8516532a815f7966870205 (16:34, block-time fallback) feed on dRPC 0 failed, max gap 3.5 to 4.0 s; PP must log every patch md5 before restart | A1 v18: re-pick stop level (0.4 to 0.7x) and checkpoint (+3 to +7 min) on the dust-guarded book | DECIDED
- 2026-10-06 16:46 BKK (Price Predict, SW v1.10/v1.11 + FW v20/v21) | pp3-cross.csv republished exact (1,076 rows; 771 at $500k, 305 at $1M): block times by interpolation between chain timestamps every 100k blocks (0x0d4e4204903a6f0de75a30e1fd43d0c9436559f9 $500k crossing 1 s from chain time; old clock up to 74 min off, 117 crossings before launch -> 1) + TRAP: CoinGecko refusals made a silent $2,700 ETH fallback, caps 7-10% high 13-18 Sep, 114 false crossings -> one hourly ETH series, abort if missing; nolog_clone flag (32 clones of 0xa604bed22a88ae9814476997a619c6eb876f2cc7) | Kit B counter live http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/kitb-count.json (140 Kit B since 2 Oct = A1.14; 23 in 24 h) | fmmc5 feed on paid dRPC (TRAP: Alchemy refuses getLogs over 10 blocks), 10 min proof 0 failures max gap 5 s; kill rule now drawdown > 20 tickets (realised + open at quote); at $20 a ticket the wallet needed is $482 vs $118 held | first paired paper trade 0x4fdcc31f5514644bf512b296057f025ddd4f9308 $469k: fmmc5 stop 0.52x on the crossing swap vs v3mc5 0.41x (30 s polling) | FACT
- 2026-10-06 16:48 BKK (FW Analyst 1 A1.22, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-knobs.md) | mc5 knob re-pick on dust-guarded book ($100, 4 h): entries +3..+7 min x stops 0.4/0.5/0.6/0.7 and 0.5 armed after +10 min | H1 pick stop 0.6x (+$8/day on H1) FAILED H2 $857 vs $1,416/day; entry knob picks +5 min; arm-after-10-min slightly worse | NO CHANGE: +5 min, stop 0.5x, 4 h | mean loss per losing trade -$63 per $100 (0.63 ticket; fills below stop, pulls 0), win rate 21% -> use for wallet sizing | tighter stops kill runners (H2 win 20% -> 13% at 0.6x, 8% at 0.7x) | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 16:56 BKK: SW push round while waiting for funding. Biggest lead = Virality V8 KIT HOLD exit (at 5x hold all on 50% trail if pool made by Kit A 0e81be52d5cf / Kit B 89885b75fd29, else sell): $1k $3,638 / $7,546 a day vs $3,068 / $3,054 all-out, 13 holds; Coder paper book w2_v3_kit_hold, A3.9 audit with pre-registered live switch (higher $/day both halves, still higher without best hold, max DD ≤ $1.5k worse). Also: paper w2_v3_750k gate; A1.18 where fresh buyers come from (route/funding mix as earlier gate); A2.22 port rule to Base/Ethereum v3 WETH (army share test first); Virality V10 slow-burn second trade type (hour 8 after $500k, ≥10 new buyers/h, median buy ≥$20) + V11 add-on, waiting on PP pp3-series. Droplet publish route from cloud: Mac Desktop Commander `python3 ~/kookwatch/dbridge.py run "<cmd>" <timeout>` (port 22 blocked; ssh key not loaded).
- 2026-10-06 17:04 BKK, server clock (FW Analyst 2 v18 status md5 9eecb137b5a970c9b95c504a557d646b) | fmmc5 running md5 fe43786dd912c04d426b7e8994832d3e (restarts 16:34, 16:45, 16:49): 16:34 to 17:04 feed 27 ok lines, 0 failed calls, max gap 5.1 s, no stalls or errors; one paper trade 0x4fdcc31f5514644bf512b296057f025ddd4f9308 closed once at 0.52x | STILL READY FOR $20 LIVE: YES; LIVE_MC5 still off -> no live fills to grade yet; live fill gate (buy gap, sell gap, stop slip vs quote per trade, ramp $20 -> $100 after 10 clean) starts at first live trade on http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/mc5live.txt | FACT
- 2026-10-06 17:10 BKK: EDGE SHIPPED: LIVE EXIT = KIT HOLD (SW v1.31). A3.9 independent rebuild passed pre-registered test: $1k $/day all-out 2,665 / 3,686 vs kit hold 3,130 / 6,990; best hold removed per half 2,828 / 5,743; open hold dumped to 0.3x 5,640; max DD unchanged (-4,177 / -4,317). Weak point: only 6 Kit B 5x events (2 held worse); Kit B only worst 3 days +$105 vs +$3,296. Guards: auto revert after 3 kit holds in a row below sell-at-5x; holds past 5x do not count to max-3-open (≤2 extra); A3.10 re-checks with slot cap.
- 2026-10-06 17:08 BKK, server clock (FW Analyst 3, sup-to-a3 v13/v14; status http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/fw-analyst3-status.md section 12, md5 2bfef0ced8261800b2de445f22fb61ba; research-box /root/fwa3/v3 v3pools.py, v3cand.py, v3lp2.py, v3sim3.py, cmp.py) | mc5 INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRMED (own code, own chain logs, exact event liquidity, supply read at the +5 min block, 6 s fill): same coins 190 of A1's 201; 2 h: H1 1.96x / H2 1.63x, +$13,016 (A1 1.86x / 1.58x, +$12,826); same 190 coins 1.69x vs A1 1.70x; 4 h to 5 Oct: H2 1.66x, +$937/day (A1.18 1.67x, $946); same top 5 winners | A1's 201 hide a dust filter (his depth estimator needs a 0.001+ WETH price-moving swap); with NO dust filter 258 trades 1.26x (67 dust coins ~0x); full A1.20 guard 4 h H2 1.77x | look-ahead: only A1's totalSupply at latest block (3 band-edge coins, net +$260 for A1); A1 counts 5 pulled-before-entry coins as 0 (conservative) | fragile: 6 Oct 35x coin lifts 2 h H2 1.38x -> 1.63x; without top 3 1.29x (2 h) / 1.52x (4 h); median 0.48x | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 16:43 BKK (FW Analyst 3 launch watch) | c500 PASS launches back: 5 in the 16:00 BKK hour (none since 10:14); pond PASS 0, WETH pond 0; fmmc5 lane1.db mode live rows 0 | FACT
- 2026-10-06 17:08 BKK: A3.10 CONFIRMED kit hold survives the 3-open cap: strict cap $3,130 / $6,964 a day (skips 4 gates in half B); new slot rule (hold past 5x not counted, ≤2 extra) $3,130 / $7,069 (skips 1). All-out never fills 3 slots (median trade 45 min). Slot rule shipped in Coder v1.31.
- 2026-10-06 17:10 BKK (Analyst 2 A2.22, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-22-second-chain.md md5 a574743d9da5aca214d3fcbe9833f46d) | SECOND CHAIN = CLOSED. Uniswap v3 WETH 13 Sep to 6 Oct, strict sellable gate within 3 h, full chain pull (free RPC): Base factory 0x33128a8fc17869897dce68ed026d694621f6fdfd 1,721 WETH pools, 18 with $20k+ buys in 3 h, $1M gates 1 (0x4f81f6ae802dec6c8e1846ad853019a5458186d1); Ethereum factory 0x1f98431c8ad98523631ae4a59f267346ea31f984 355 WETH pools, 13 with $20k+ buys, $1M gates 6 (odd caps $60M/$9.8B) | bar 30 gates -> stop at step 1; memecoin launches on those chains are on v4 launchpads, Base v4 untested | TRAP: Ethereum v3 factory is 0x1f98431c8ad98523631ae4a59f267346ea31f984 (read factory() from pool 0x88e6a0c2ddd26feeb64f039a2c41296fcb3f5640), 0x1f98431c8ad98523631ae95f405fc8ac00a4b5d3 has no code on mainnet; free log RPCs: Base mainnet.base.org (500 blocks) + base.gateway.tenderly.co, Ethereum mainnet.gateway.tenderly.co / rpc.mevblocker.io (10k blocks) | FACT
- 2026-10-06 17:10 BKK (Analyst 1 A1.18, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-18-buyer-source.md) | WHERE THE FRESH BUYERS COME FROM (70 wide coins, all 291,899 buys launch to gate+2 h): routes pre/post gate: fee router 0xf2a277490c6e1d511e236c64895a0fef39aa8098 39%/61% (31-100% daily to 1 Oct, 0% from 2 Oct), SwapRouter02 0xcaf681a66d020601342297493863e78c959e5cb2 28%/38%, launch-kit dev bundle 31%/0%; fomo router 0 buys | funding (1,398 sampled buyers): disperse contracts dominate (0x84157d3d24630c297849c84d49ae7f1805c1b60f 62% pre / 37% post in half B; 0x03802649e469ed5680c58dff9e65425e22d21cc5 61% post in half A); 84-87% of pre-gate buy ETH from wallets funded <60 min before first buy (post 45-49%) | younger buyer wallets go with winners both halves but as gate filter loses (B->A $3,246 vs $5,412/day); route mix tracks date not coin | KILLED as gate filter; health signal idea (route mix + fresh-wallet share) | FACT
- 2026-10-06 17:10 BKK: KILLED A2.22 second chain: Uniswap v3 WETH $1M sellable gates within 3 h, 13 Sep to 6 Oct: Base 1, Ethereum 6 (vs Robinhood ~3/day). New memecoins on Base/ETH launch on v4 hook launchpads, not v3. Next A2.23: Base v4 launchpads, army-share mechanism check first (close if median >0.015 or <30 gates).
- 2026-10-06 17:10 BKK: A1.18 (no gate change): post-gate buyers on v3 rule coins are mostly brand-new wallets funded via disperse contracts 0x84157d3d24630c297849c84d49ae7f1805c1b60f and 0x03802649e469ed5680c58dff9e65425e22d21cc5 minutes before buying (84-87% of pre-gate buy ETH from wallets <60 min old; 45-49% post-gate). Fee router 0xf2a277490c6e1d511e236c64895a0fef39aa8098 carried most buys until 1 Oct then 0% (flow moved to SwapRouter02) without hurting the rule. Buyer age filter loses money. Fomo router carried 0 buys. Health line added: alert if fresh-wallet post-gate share <25% for 2 days.
- 2026-10-06 17:17 BKK, server clock (FW Analyst 3, sup-to-a3 v15; status section 13 md5 1ee6a692abff44ef41606aebbf797b5c; research-box /root/fwa3/v3 v3re.py, reentry.json) | mc5 RE-ENTRY AFTER 0.5x STOP KILLED: 115 stopped coins with 10.5 h tapes; 48 trade back above our entry (all within 2 h), 29 reach $1M in 6 h; 9 rules (price 0.8/1.0/1.5x entry, cap $500k/$750k/$1M, buy pace), $100, 4 h: H1 pick (buy pace back, 2 h) 12.15x n5 -> H2 0.90x n24; best both halves cap back to $500k in 2 h 6.72x n7 / 1.74x n38 (+$333 / +$234 a day) but 1.38x / 1.05x without the best coin, and H2 money = 2nd window coins (3.84x on 11 w2 coins, 0.88x on 27 others) = double exposure | SUPPLY FIX: A1 code with totalSupply at block b300 (not latest): 200 trades 1.89x / 1.58x +$12,887 vs 201 1.86x / 1.58x +$12,826 = no change | KILLED (re-entry), FACT (supply)
- 2026-10-06 17:23 BKK, server clock (FW Analyst 3, sup-to-a3 v16; status section 14 md5 f52d96ddba26277744ab2e3c0a9e891e; research-box /root/fwa3/v3 v3honest.py, honest_D6.json, honest_D30.json) | mc5 HONEST MONEY LINE (own rebuild, dust guard, fill end of block at check+6 s / +30 s by real v3 tick walk, every exit incl. pulls and cascades sold at END of NEXT block with own buy kept, 1% + gas each way, 4 h from fill) | H2 through 5 Oct, fill 6 s: $100 1.84x +$1,118/day (no top3 +$484), $1k 1.69x +$9,195 (+$3,703), $2k 1.58x +$15,524 (+$5,837); fill 30 s: $100 1.64x +$847, $1k 1.60x +$7,965, $2k 1.50x +$13,170 | incl. 6 Oct morning H2 $1k 2.09x +$14,160 (one 47x coin) | max DD ~14 tickets H2, H1 under 4; H2 worst day $1k -$5,300 | 19 of 116 stops fill under 0.3x, 7 at 0.02x or less (pull/dump next block) | edge survives all frictions; fill speed matters (30 s costs 13-24% of H2 profit) | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 17:24 BKK (Analyst 1 A1.19, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-19-pull-source.md) | WHO BUYS PULLED COINS: 490 instant pulls rebuilt (v3 WETH 0.01% since 13 Sep, 5+ buys 0 sells, pulled median 19 s, 0.054 ETH) = old sniper wallets (84% / 55% of buy ETH funded before block 60M), 0% disperse funding, sniper routes (0x65050a9b7e5075a2ba5ced7b1b64ee66262c40dc in 63% / 39% of them, 0% of gated coins); 195 repeat snipers carry 61% of their ETH but also bought 69 of 70 gated coins | launch source: position manager 0x73991a25c818bf1f1128deaab1492d45638de0d3 441 of 4,239; launcher 0x9b226f198ef0038d054be6265aa9f76c0d6e5e78 49 of 63 instant pulls, 0 gates; no Kit A/B instant pull | 5 gate pulls look like winners (fresh disperse wallets, same routers); skip filters (direct transfer share, disperse 0x03802649e469ed5680c58dff9e65425e22d21cc5 share) all lose in half A at $1k A2.21 frictions (best +$2,342 vs +$2,733/day) | KILLED (buyer-side pull signal); no gate change | FACT
- 2026-10-06 17:24 BKK: KILLED A1.19 pull-source skip filter. 490 instant pulls (median 19 s after first swap) are old-sniper-wallet games (195 repeat snipers, top 0x1a45411c635f06a563cc61c8e96e6333dbc2420a in 232) from position manager 0x73991a25c818bf1f1128deaab1492d45638de0d3 and launcher 0x9b226f198ef0038d054be6265aa9f76c0d6e5e78 (49 of 63 launches instant pulls); none reach $1M gate; no Kit A/B instant pulls. The 5 post-gate pulls have the same fresh disperse-funded buyers as winners; every funding/route skip cut loses money in half A.
- 2026-10-06 17:26 BKK (FW Supervisor) | fmmc5 LIVE: Ben created /opt/fm/LIVE_MC5 at 17:26:37 BKK; log "LIVE_ON start wallet 0.04373 ETH"; md5 fe43786dd912c04d426b7e8994832d3e; $20 a trade from test wallet 0x0184ef9b23476ed84107cc5e15485a4a7ee6b286; kill = drawdown > 20 tickets, failed sell, 2 bad fills, 60-trade check; A2 grades every live fill (buy gap, sell gap, stop slip), A1 replays each live coin, A3 sets fill-delay pass line | LIVE ($20)
- 2026-10-06 17:27 BKK, server clock (FW Analyst 3, sup-to-a3 v17; status section 15 md5 0a193c6627c95230587908aa64d94e3c; research-box /root/fwa3/v3 honest_D*.json, delayana.py) | mc5 FILL DELAY PASS LINE = 6 s from +5 min check to fill block: 2/4/6 s one plateau ($1k H2 to 5 Oct +$8,884 / +$8,793 / +$9,195 a day); 10 s loses 9-15% vs best of 2-6 s in every column ($1k H2 +$7,859, H1 -13%); 30 s keeps 85-95% | knife-edge coins flip 0.5x stop vs run by fill price (pool 0xa402616f4d05cca33947fabc6ff51ba795f6d2f4 6.2x or 0.49x; pool 0xa6b2579671f40524b08ba53871f19599edeeb3e8 ~4x at <=6 s, 0.49x at >=10 s) | FACT (paper): fmmc5 live pass <=6 s, warn 7-9 s, fail >=10 s
- 2026-10-06 17:35 BKK (Analyst 2 A2.23 step 1, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-23-base-v4.md md5 523faa8218ba51a35084c743215ddbaf) | BASE v4 = CLOSED: PoolManager 0x498581ff718922c3f8e6a244956af099b2652b2b, 13 Sep to 6 Oct: 107,947 pools (39,987 ETH-quoted), 25,183 traded in first 3 h (2.7M swaps), 7,431 with $20k+ buys but only 157 passed $500k = bots trading with bots | sellable $1M gates within 3 h: 18 (bar 30); 10 real new coins, ARMY SHARE median 0.72 (0 of 10 at or under 0.015; Robinhood v3 ~0.001) | buyer = token Transfer from PoolManager recipient in swap tx; army universe = the 7,431 traded coins, 7 days | top hooks 0x0469a4bd3724dc86c9542f4694c976da13c450c0 (ZORA-quoted), 0xbdf938149ac6a781f94faa0ed45e6a0e984c6544 (2 odd gates) | FACT: fresh-buyer mechanism absent on Base v4
- 2026-10-06 17:35 BKK: KILLED A2.23 Base v4 launchpads. 107,947 v4 pools (39,987 ETH-quoted) 13 Sep to 6 Oct: only 18 sellable $1M gates in 3 h, 10 real; median army share 0.72 (0 under our 0.015 cap) = recycled bot wallets. Second-chain search closed: the fresh-buyer mechanism is Robinhood v3 specific.
- [stated] 6 Oct 17:37 BKK: Ben: "$10 per trade is better, run it with that" | fmmc5 size_usd 20 -> 10 (config read live, no restart; backup mc5_config.json.bak_size20); 0 live buys before the change | DECIDED
- 2026-10-06 17:44 BKK (FW Analyst 1 A1.23, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-cheap.md) | mc5 CHEAP END below $250k (dust guard, 4 h, stop 0.5x, honest fill 6 s after signal, base wins): every cell loses alone in both halves and without top 2: H2 $100 +5 min $100k-250k 0.37x (-$976/day), +5 min $150k-250k 0.43x (-$336), +3 min $100k-250k 0.27x (-$622; true value worse, coins that fell under $100k by +5 min missing) | base honest fill H2 2.27x, 12.2 trades/day, +$1,550/day at $100, +$12,673 at $1k, worst 3 days +$720 | under $250k at +5 min = buyers did not come; the floor carries the edge | KILLED (cheap band). Publish route used: Mac `ssh -i ~/kookwatch/id_kookwatch root@159.223.88.168` (also reaches research-box 152.42.241.219) | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 17:43 BKK (Analyst 2 A2.24, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-24-honest-money-v2.md md5 5e799a049b8d1eabee005de67f0444ce) | MONEY LINE v2 with LIVE KIT HOLD (slot rule 3 + 2 holds; wide gate, gate+30 s, 0.3x stop, next-block exits, real depth): $1k +$3,317 / +$6,683 a day vs all-out +$2,733 / +$3,535 (+$584 / +$3,148); $2k +6,002 / +12,138 | worst day and max DD unchanged; peak open 5 tickets | 15 holds, 4 under their 5x sale; 2 Kit B holds still open (0x224a794031d54e49b46919ade2c55ff255dfdd97, 0xc38c332012a9116dcade0c7f43b5d3c71799a9f8): without them half B +$5,446 | WALLET: history needed 5 x ticket, max DD 5.7 tickets, 8 x fine on history, guarantee = 15 x ticket | kit labels http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-24-kits.csv | FACT (paper)
- 2026-10-06 17:45 BKK, server clock (FW Analyst 2 v19 status md5 2b5adc451c69d9e8b502b35e2f9e72a0) | fmmc5 LIVE ON since 17:26:38, $10 ticket, 0 live trades by 17:44 | TRAP: test wallet 0x0184ef9b23476ed84107cc5e15485a4a7ee6b286 $118.64 = ~11 tickets incl gas, kill needs 24 + gas ($242) -> wallet runs dry before the 20-ticket kill; low-balance buy must be a clean skip, top up before the $100 step ($2,400 + gas) | OPEN
- 2026-10-06 17:46 BKK (FW Supervisor) | A1.23 accepted (no band below $250k). A1 v20 (sup-to-a1 md5 902500961f0e404e10c80402de7a4352): live match every live coin + FORWARD PAPER log fw/a1-mc5-top-paper.txt for the 3 H2-only cells (+5 min $1M-$2M, +10 min $500k-$2M, +10 min $1M-$3M); join live after 48 h only if forward paper positive AND positive without top 2 | fmmc5 live $10, 0 trades 17:41; feed one 21.6 s gap 17:40 (fill pass line 6 s) -> watch | OPEN
- 2026-10-06 17:50 BKK (Virality Expert V10/V11/V3 + V4 correction, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v10.md) | KILLED V10: hour-8 buy after $500k (>=10 new buyers/h + median buy >=$20 in h4-8), $1k, real depth: A 13 trades 0.40x -$519/day, B 3 trades 0.42x -$250/day; zero trades reached 4x after hour 8 | RETRACTED V4 v0.3: 11 of 50 coins had overflowed pp3 max_cap (>$10B) and 15 of 34 slow-burn coins were already $2M-$40M at crossing | V11 impossible: 3 of 69 wide trades held at hour 8 | TRAP: outcome = max_cap / cap_at_cross; confirm v4 pull/stop/target on next swap (one-swap L=0 artifacts) | FACT
- 2026-10-06 17:52 BKK (FW Analyst 3, v18) | LIVE AUDIT + HALF C BOARD http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a3-live-audit.md: research-box timers fwa3-live (liveaudit.py, 2 min: wallet 0x0184ef9b23476ed84107cc5e15485a4a7ee6b286 transfers -> Swap -> delay vs check, pass <=6 s, fill vs tick-walk model, validated 1.0000) and fwa3-halfc (2 h, coins from 6 Oct 12:00 BKK, bootstrap band vs H2) | no live trade yet; half C 2 trades | TOOL