# Track record and calibration

The section that should govern position sizing off any of his calls.

---

## Last cycle — the entries were real

He names these himself [93:22]: *"last run I nailed it with a few like Brett, Bobo, Rido, Ponky, and a couple others… Conan."*

| Coin | His entry | Peak |
|---|---|---|
| Bobo | ~$1M | ~$210M |
| Brett | ~$2M | ~$2.32B |
| Resistance Dog (REDO) | ~$1M | — |
| Conan | ~$300K | ~$40M |
| Ponke | — | — |

Verified from his own posts [94:04]: *"I have very similar feeling now as I did whenever I bought Bobo at 1 million, resistance dog at 1 million, bred at 2 million."*

**This is a genuine early-entry record.** Do not dismiss it.

---

## But the targets land at 23–29%

| Coin | Stated target | Actual peak | Realised |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEPE | 40B | $11.8B | **29.5%** |
| BRETT | 10B | $2.32B | **23.2%** |

Measured on his *good* cycle. **Apply a ~25% haircut to any stated target.** A "50x" becomes
a ~12–15x. That is still a large number — the point is not that he is wrong, it is that the
headline figure is a marketing number and the realised one is a quarter of it.

---

## He has never given an exit signal

Searched across every account and every timeframe. Not once.

| Date | What he posted | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Jan 2025 | *"I'm buying $BRETT 600x higher than where I originally got in"* | 8 days before the TRUMP top |
| 13 Feb 2025 | *"2eth into $Bobo at 20M… zero downside even in a market crash"* | Bobo −99.3% |
| 15 Feb 2025 | *"$BRETT would hit 20B MINIMUM"* | Brett ~$36M |
| 13 Jun 2025 | *"Lost over −$740k"* | longing Brett |
| 8 Sep 2025 | (Bluntz, separate analyst) *"max allocated to memecoins"* | 5 weeks before the Oct crash |

**This is the single most important fact in this skill.** Being early and knowing when to
leave are different skills. He has demonstrated the first repeatedly and the second never —
including with his own money, publicly, at scale.

Anyone holding a position sourced from him is holding a position with no exit plan attached,
and should build one themselves.

---

## Entry versus announcement — the actual product

On the two positions where his entry date and his public call are separable:

| Coin | From HIS entry | From his PUBLIC call |
|---|---|---|
| Cupsey | **+39.5%** ✅ | **−15.1%** ❌ |
| Chonketha | **+64.9%** ✅ | **−5.6%**, or −37% if you bought the acrostic high ❌ |
| LAYOOO | — | **−18.9%** ❌ |
| Troll | −45.8% | −45.8% |
| Wojak | −43.4% | −43.4% |
| Utya | −10.6% | −10.6% |
| Brett | −52.3% | −52.3% |

*(measured 18 Aug 2026)*

**He is green on his entries and followers are red from his announcements.** On the four
where entry and call are the same date — the ones he has been shouting about for months —
everything is down 10% to 65%.

The gap between those two columns is the thing being sold.

---

## The disclosed book, marked

The $1.35M he disclosed on 23 May, valued 19 Aug 2026:

| | Cost | Entry MC | Then | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTYA | $600K | ~$32.1M | $27.3M | $510K (−15.0%) |
| TROLL | $450K | $69M | $40.5M | $264K (−41.3%) |
| WOJAK | $300K | ~$30M | $16.6M | $166K (−44.7%) |
| **Total** | **$1.35M** | | | **~$940K (−30.3%)** |

Assuming no adds or trims — he has given no indication either way.

---

## Claims that did not hold up

Worth knowing, because they show the promotional register.

**The "paid mandate".** He described holding *"a 1 year contract to send 3 memes on Solana past a billion."* No counterparty was ever named, it never recurred across 348 posts and 465 replies, and he uses "contract" as a punchline elsewhere. Reads as NFL/NBA free-agency phrasing, not a real mandate.

**"I didn't know what Chonketha was."** His beaver post preceded his own *"what the fuck is a chonketha"* reply by 2h06m, and the volume spike preceded both.

**The Wojak migration ratio.** He describes a 1:1 swap [38:06]. Bitget documents 1:958.

**Bobo has IP.** Implied strongly [65:47], [66:20]. There is no registered right — see `ip-and-copyright.md`.