--- name: "long-lane-screen" description: "Screen any Robinhood Chain stock-paired memecoin by its LANE: who leads, by how much, and whether the lane is settled. Use on any long.xyz coin, any \"which meme owns stock X\" question, and before any DD on a stock-paired coin." --- # LONG lane screen UM's central claim is that every tokenized stock ends up with ONE definitive memecoin and it will be on long.xyz. If that is right, the only question about a stock-paired coin is whether it owns its lane. This is the runnable version of that question. Detail and the current map live in memory at `/areas/long-lane-map.md`; the framework is `/areas/uberm-framework.md`. ## STEP 0. START FROM THE DROPLET, NOT FROM A PUBLIC API This cost most of a session. `longboard.service` already indexes every long.xyz launch. ``` ssh -i ~/kookwatch/id_kookwatch root@159.223.88.168 \ 'python3 -c "import sqlite3;c=sqlite3.connect(\"/opt/longboard/lb.db\");print(list(c.execute(\"select asset,sym,numeraire,quote from tok\"))[:5])"' ``` - Table `tok`, ~6,500 rows: asset, ticker, numeraire (the stock), launcher, ts, block, sym, quote, liq, mcap. - Source contract: LONG launcher `0x22e99278308b393ea1260859b181ad7e78f5eeed`, event topic `0xadc6f1f726f7c710f77ec06adc75f3bb964e5be19581b072c67f7b9b4039267b`. - **Its `mcap` and `liq` are recorded near launch and are stale. Its `quote` is null on most rows. It does NOT contain the older majors (AI, MOO, INU).** Use it for the WIDEST universe and the stock list, then price live and confirm pairings on chain. - Before building any Robinhood Chain universe at all, `ls /opt` on the droplet. Thirty-plus services already collect this chain. ## STEP 1. CONFIRM THE PAIRING ON CHAIN LONG registry `0x4e3468951d49f2eea976ed0d6e75ffcb44a9a544`, selector `0x1bab58f5(token)` returns the paired stock. **Decode the FIRST 32-byte word, `result[26:66]`.** Taking the tail returns garbage and yields a silent zero-match across the whole run. ## STEP 2. IS THE PAIR A REAL STOCK? The leveraged-wrapper trap. Call `name()` and `uiMultiplier()` (`0xa60bf13d`) on the pair asset. - Real spot equity: name ends "• Robinhood Token" AND `uiMultiplier()` returns a value. Pre-IPO spot exists too ("Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class ..."). - Leveraged wrapper: "NVDA 3x Long", "OPENAI 1x Long", "ANTHROPIC 1x Long". **No `uiMultiplier()`.** These are LongX perp-backed synthetics whose fees accrue to $AI, not to the paired meme. A 1x tracks spot; a 3x decays. Say which one it is, every time. - An impostor with the right ticker also fails `uiMultiplier()`. Only 61 of 312 ticker-symbol contracts on this chain are real. ## STEP 3. BUILD THE LANE, BY POOL DEPTH AND BY CAP **Never use DexScreener `/latest/dex/tokens/{addr}`: it caps at 30 pairs, so deep lanes come back empty and a lane looks unclaimed when it is not. DexScreener `search` also silently omits coins entirely.** Use GeckoTerminal, paged: ``` https://api.geckoterminal.com/api/v2/networks/robinhood/tokens/{stock}/pools?page=1..5&include=base_token,quote_token ``` 20 per page, pace ~2.2s. The stock can be on EITHER side of the pool, so take the counterparty, never assume base or quote. For every meme in the lane record: pool liquidity against that stock, 24h volume in that pool, own market cap, pair creation time. **Count the non-LONG rivals too.** A meme launched on another pad can pair against the same stock and will be invisible to the registry. Two live examples: FLYBRAIN `0x4Eb990547BCe4a982432CA88Cf5fae7EED1A2d35` on GOOGL and CANAL `0xb796a2cc2f85eCc4772a96B7A58A0d626cC6AEc8` on SNDK, both bigger than or close to the LONG leader. Under UM's thesis they do not win the long game; for today's price they compete. ## STEP 4. HOLDER VELOCITY. This is the layer that decides it. Run the transfer-log reconstruction (`holders3.py` pattern in `onchain-forensics`) and report the daily series, not a single number. - Rising holders plus rising price is the only combination that runs. - **Falling holders plus rising price is distribution.** On the 19 Sep screen CACHE printed +44% in a day while holders fell every day for nine days; BOXY went 1,079 to 1,768 in ten days and accelerating. That single contrast decided the call. - **GATE BUG, already fixed once, do not reintroduce:** never probe the Uniswap v4 singleton `0x8366a39CC670B4001A1121B8F6A443A643e40951` in the reconciliation check. It is always a top holder and its balance moves between the log snapshot and the live `balanceOf`, so it can never reconcile and it fails good reconstructions. Drift and unrecovered gaps are the real gate. ## STEP 5. VALUE ACCRUAL, stated plainly Read `totalSupply()` against the original supply to get the burn, and look for a vault holding the token plus the stock. - Most lane memes have **zero burn and no vault**: BOXY, QUBIT and CACHE all sit at exactly 1,000,000,000 supply. They are pure lane bets. - MOO burns about 99,588 tokens a day; AI is fed by LONG protocol fees. Do not let a coin borrow their story. ## VERDICT SHAPE - **Settled lane**: leader above 5x the next on BOTH cap and pool depth, no non-LONG rival within 3x. - **Contested**: anything under 3x. Never call a winner in a contested lane. - Then: holder trend, value accrual (usually none), and where the leader sits against its own ATH. - End with the one measurement that would flip it. ## PRE-DELIVERY GATE Do not deliver until each of these is stated, or explicitly reported as unmeasurable: 1. The stock the coin is paired to, confirmed from the registry, not from the ticker 2. Whether that pair is spot equity or a leveraged wrapper 3. Every other meme in the lane, LONG-registered or not, with pool depth and cap 4. Dominance ratio on both measures, and settled versus contested 5. The holder series, gate-passed, with the direction called 6. Burn and vault, or the explicit "none" 7. Distance from ATH and the age of that ATH 8. The single falsifier