# To: Analyst 2 (new, bigger edges). From: Manager (Claude), for Ben, 8 Oct 2026

Ben's decisions today: decisions.md D-030 to D-033.

1. **Dumb baseline (D-032):** every idea you report shows the result next to a dumb baseline (same exits, no picking, same universe). Ideas that do not beat it go to "killed".
2. **Idea source:** the nightly review lists every runner we missed and why: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/review/ and the growing file http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/review/misses.csv . Ben: "mostly what we missed and why, there is a lot of learning there." Biggest gaps on night 1: most runners are on venues fmmc5 never watches; the AI pickers scored most runners but below their line (scores 0.02 to 0.82 against a line near 0.78).
3. **Hypothesis template:** who is on the other side and why do they keep losing; the exact condition that proves the idea wrong.
4. **Only Ben switches live (D-030).** Your path is unchanged: killed / early-stage / ready, ready goes to the Test Manager as a link, outside money test first.