Made 22 Oct 07:41 Bangkok. Read only, no Claude in the loop. Only Ben switches live (D-030). Gate rule: 2 profitable days without bugs (D-031). Runner = Robinhood coin with ATH $1.0M+ (big: $5.0M+), from runtrack.
0 of 26 runners made us money (0%)
| step | runners | share |
|---|---|---|
| born (ATH $1M+) | 26 | 100% |
| seen by any bot | 20 | 77% |
| picked by any bot (paper or live) | 0 | 0% |
| made money (live or paper test) | 0 | 0% |
| item | USD |
|---|---|
| live P&L (fmmc5, real money) | $-13.31 |
| paper P&L (fml2, not real) | $10.30 |
| running cost per week (costs.json, estimate: Ben edits it) | $104.00 |
| real money result after costs | $-117.31 |
10x hit rate of each picker book; shadow books end in _h; dumb baseline = every coin round 5 scored: - of - hit 10x (0.0%).
| picker | book | picks | closed | 10x hits | hit rate | vs baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| round5 | v5_top1_h | 10 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | - |
| 30s | champion | 27 | 24 | 12 | 50.0% | - |
| round5 | blend_top2 | 43 | 20 | 10 | 50.0% | - |
| 60s | champion | 218 | 103 | 47 | 45.6% | - |
| round5 | v5_top1 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | - |
| round5 | blend_top2_h | 23 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% | - |
| round5 | id5_top1 | 70 | 39 | 15 | 38.5% | - |
| round5 | v5_top2 | 44 | 26 | 10 | 38.5% | - |
| round5 | v5_top2_h | 29 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | - |
| round5 | base_top5_nodead_h | 115 | 64 | 20 | 31.2% | - |
| round5 | id5_top2 | 152 | 86 | 26 | 30.2% | - |
| round5 | f5_20s_top2 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | - |
| round5 | v5_top5_h | 104 | 56 | 16 | 28.6% | - |
| round5 | f5_20s_top5 | 141 | 86 | 24 | 27.9% | - |
| round5 | base_top5_nodead | 199 | 93 | 24 | 25.8% | - |
| round5 | rule_fee001_first | 577 | 308 | 79 | 25.6% | - |
| round5 | id5_top5 | 340 | 197 | 47 | 23.9% | - |
| round5 | v5_top5 | 211 | 116 | 26 | 22.4% | - |
| round5 | rule_r6_clean_up_2apps | 186 | 91 | 19 | 20.9% | - |
| round5 | ev_top1 | 52 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | - |
| round5 | rand_gated | 110 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | - |
| round5 | m10_top2 | 215 | 65 | 8 | 12.3% | - |
| round5 | rule_smart2_clean | 391 | 195 | 23 | 11.8% | - |
| round5 | m10_top1 | 141 | 30 | 3 | 10.0% | - |
| round5 | ev_top2 | 102 | 36 | 3 | 8.3% | - |
| round5 | rand_30s | 170 | 75 | 6 | 8.0% | - |
| round5 | ev_top1_h | 176 | 61 | 3 | 4.9% | - |
| round5 | ev_top2_h | 180 | 64 | 3 | 4.7% | - |
| round5 | ev_top5_h | 195 | 69 | 3 | 4.3% | - |
| round5 | ev_top5 | 208 | 82 | 3 | 3.7% | - |
Live 1: Price Predict mc5 (fmmc5): WARNING: 16 LOSSES IN A ROW (info only, no loss stop since D-038)
$50 a trade. 50 closed trades, total $-353.76, without the best trade $-473.42 (best $119.67). Losses in a row now: 16 of 10.
| Bangkok day | closed trades | wins | P&L | bugs | counts toward 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 11 | 0 | $-371.11 | 1 | no |
| 2026-10-09 | 8 | 1 | $79.94 | 0 | yes |
| 2026-10-10 | 16 | 1 | $33.03 | 0 | yes |
| 2026-10-11 | 4 | 0 | $-20.86 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-12 | 9 | 0 | $-61.45 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-16 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | 1 | no |
| 2026-10-17 | 2 | 0 | $-13.31 | 0 | no |
Paper 2: AI picks (fml2): NOT YET (1 of 2 days)
$10 paper. 31 closed trades, total $94.08, without the best trade $46.65 (best $47.43). Losses in a row now: 2 of 10.
| Bangkok day | closed trades | wins | P&L | bugs | counts toward 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | 3 | 1 | $38.04 | 0 | yes |
| 2026-10-16 | 2 | 0 | $-16.45 | 1 | no |
| 2026-10-18 | 1 | 0 | $-0.09 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-19 | 1 | 0 | $-1.84 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-20 | 1 | 0 | $-0.37 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-21 | 3 | 1 | $29.43 | 0 | yes |
| 2026-10-22 | 1 | 0 | $-0.38 | 0 | no |
Paper 1b: AI picks, no quiet exit (fml2v): NOT YET (0 of 2 days)
$10 paper. 30 closed trades, total $337.07, without the best trade $139.31 (best $197.77). Losses in a row now: 9 of 10.
| Bangkok day | closed trades | wins | P&L | bugs | counts toward 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | 3 | 1 | $25.74 | 1 | no |
| 2026-10-16 | 2 | 0 | $-16.57 | 1 | no |
| 2026-10-18 | 1 | 0 | $-6.84 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-19 | 1 | 0 | $-1.85 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-20 | 1 | 0 | $-1.51 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-21 | 3 | 0 | $-20.12 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-22 | 1 | 0 | $-0.27 | 0 | no |
Does picking beat taking everything the bot saw? Share of coins that became runners.
| bot | runners in its picks | runners in everything it saw | picking adds value? |
|---|---|---|---|
| fmmc5 (cap band rule) | 0 of 0 (-) | 25 of 609 (4%) | - |
| aipaper (AI score) | 0 of 111 (0%) | 37 of 2751 (1%) | no, not better than taking all |
| aipaper30 (AI score) | 0 of 0 (-) | 0 of 0 (-) | - |
| aipaper5 (AI score) | 0 of 0 (-) | 0 of 0 (-) | - |
| coin | ATH | venue | mc5 | aipaper | aipaper30 | aipaper5 | fml2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x800d6f (big) 0x800d6fa4 | $60.3M | kit:other | MISSED in band but skip | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0xb63d07 (big) 0xb63d07ce | $32.4M | kit:other | MISSED cap $7.3M at 5 min, over $1M | MISSED score 0.54 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x18e674 (big) 0x18e67423 | $25.4M | stable-fee0-wash | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue stable-fee0-wash) | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Kimchi (big) 0x6b1f34fe | $17.3M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Dacity (big) 0xca41e0bc | $11.6M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.68 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| CUMROCKET (big) 0x8d483366 | $7.3M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| FINLEY (big) 0x972c8c01 | $6.9M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.54 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Kimchi (big) 0x37df100e | $5.9M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.58 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Pokémon 0x634159b2 | $4.8M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.37 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x90a367 0x90a36713 | $4.6M | kit:B | MISSED in band but skip | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| FINLEY 0x2d186d98 | $4.1M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.68 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Kimchi 0xd1f4e0f3 | $3.9M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| CREORA 0xb11384a6 | $3.6M | pons_v2 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pons_v2) | MISSED score 0.39 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x97811f 0x97811f3d | $3.5M | kit:other | MISSED cap $51k at 5 min, under $250k | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| ALPENGLOW 0x1d6d3b33 | $3.3M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.62 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| CUMROCKET 0x7e3355ca | $3.2M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.60 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| SXSI 0xc93d2f54 | $3.2M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Kimchi 0x2b610b5a | $2.9M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.67 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Kimchi 0xf55ce098 | $2.8M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.58 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Kimchi 0x493a7d9f | $2.6M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.64 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| umi 0xbfd5f6f6 | $1.6M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.24 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0xccbfb9 0xccbfb921 | $1.5M | kit:other | MISSED cap $1.5M at 5 min, over $1M | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0xb78101 0xb78101e4 | $1.4M | kit:other | MISSED cap $1.4M at 5 min, over $1M | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| FINLEY 0xe9dddc2f | $1.3M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.57 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| HUMANOID 0xdd0eaee2 | $1.3M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x144123 0x1441236e | $1.0M | kit:B | MISSED in band but skip | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| venue | runners | seen by no bot at all |
|---|---|---|
| pool_uniswap_v4 | 50 | 19 |
| kit:other | 17 | 0 |
| kit:B | 3 | 0 |
| pons_v2 | 2 | 0 |
| stable-fee0-wash | 2 | 1 |
| standard_reserve | 1 | 1 |
| v4 no-hook NATIVE fee0 | 1 | 0 |
| bot | coin | result | exit |
|---|
We bought the right coin, the exit sold it at a loss, and it still became a runner.
| bot | coin | cap at buy | our result | exit | coin ATH later |
|---|
| bot | coin | cap at buy | result | exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| fml2 | 0x7db048cc | $17k | 0.01x | dead_60s |
| fml2 | 0x7db9589c | $3k | 0.98x | dead_60s |
| fml2 | 0xfcf68df4 | $3k | 0.96x | dead_60s |
Data for analysts: misses.csv (every runner a bot did not pick, with the reason), history.jsonl (one line per night).