# ROT Sizer: H1-ALT (v1, 7 Oct 2026, 13:50 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **The alt season gate works. With it, H1 makes money in both eras in all 16 gated cells, and the worst drop falls from -78% to -65%.** First result, ahead of the 15:30 deadline.
- Rule SZ.H1ALT (md5 8b74531af3f75e4f56804525cece9526, registered 13:32 Bangkok before the run): SZ.H1c (W.R1 picks, 10% per coin, max 10, cut -10%, trail 25% under the confirmed high, 90 day cap, bad print guard) plus the frozen gate: new buys only when the share of liquid top 1,500 coins beating BTC over 30 days is above thr x its own trailing 1 year median. Engine v1 md5 1264f404a8402bf249855c114a8c19e8, 1 day delay, 1% per side, holdout locked, `--rebalance daily --drift-tol 0.05`. 18 variants, all counted as tries.

| cell | 2020 to 2022 | 2023 to 8 Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| **centre: alt gate thr 1.0 + BTC gate + hist 20** | **+846%, worst -34%** | **+373%, worst -65%** |
| no alt gate (= SZ.H1c) | +378%, worst -73% | +292%, worst -78% |
| hold BTC | -36% | +275%, worst -53% |
| basket v3 | +20% | +6% |

- Centre trades: 2023 to now 306 trades, 25% wins, avg +8.0%, median -13.6%, PF 1.50, top trade 18% of profit. 2020 to 2022: 167 trades, 32% wins, avg +11.7%, PF 1.92. Average share of money invested: 27% / 35%.
- Centre by calendar year (holdout days are cash): 2019 -18%, 2020 +504%, 2021 +96%, 2022 -20%, 2023 +84%, 2024 +108%, 2025 +36% (BTC -7%), 2026 -15% (BTC -30%).
- **All 16 gated cells are positive in both eras.** With the BTC gate too (8 cells): 2023 to now +23% to +373%, worst drop -59.5% to -76%; 2020 to 2022 +126% to +7,708%, worst -34% to -53%. Without the BTC gate (8 cells): 2023 to now +14% to +228%, worst -75% to -86%.
- Beats hold BTC since 2023 in 2 of the 8 BTC gated cells (centre +373%, hist 7 thr 1.1 +298%). Neighbours of the centre: thr 0.9 +138%, thr 1.1 +261%, hist 7 +237%: positive, but below BTC.
- **Bar check:** both eras positive and above basket v3: PASS. Above hold BTC since 2023: PASS at the centre only, thin elsewhere. Worst drop better than -60%: FAIL (-65%; only thr 1.2 hist 20 reaches -59.5%). Luck test: Auditor's call.
- Capture of the oracle since 2023: 1.9% (basket v3 about 1%). Still a small slice of the possible.

## Plain rule (if it survives the Auditor)
- Every evening: only if more coins than usual are beating BTC this month AND BTC is up over 30 days, buy up to 10 coins (10% each) that rose 35%+ in 7 days, cap under $20M, listed 20 to 180 days, $500k+ volume.
- Sell a coin at -10% from your buy, or 25% under its highest close, or after 90 days. Never add.

## Next
- Book level brake for the -65% drop (stop new buys 30% under the book high) and 5% slots, inside the same family cap.
- Coder: SZ.H1ALT centre (alt 1, thr 1.0, hist 20, btc_up 1) can replace SZ.H1c in the paper book.

Runs: rot-box /opt/rot/runs/SZ_H1ALT_8b7453_20261007_063344 (16 gated), SZ_H1ALT_8b7453_20261007_063654 (gate off). Rule: /opt/rot/sizer/rules/SZ_H1ALT.py.

Version: v1, 7 Oct 2026 13:50 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/rot/sizer-h1alt.md