# A1.20 Find Kit C (Analyst 1, 6 Oct 2026, 18:46 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **No Kit C passes.** Apart from Kit A and Kit B, no launcher with 20 or more launches has 10 coins reaching 5x in both halves. Most never produce a 5x at all.
- **One watch item: the "3,587-byte" kit family.**
  - 17 launches from 29 Sep to 3 Oct (Bangkok), each with its own copy and its own deployer (code hashes 51d0e39db2ed, 2696b754c8e3, 60341fa374bf).
  - **10 of the 17 reached the $1M gate (59%)**, the best rate of any family. Kit A is 41%, Kit B 20%, the plain position manager 0.4%.
  - On our wide rule: 6 trades, 3 hit 5x, mean 2.61x at $1k.
  - Too few launches to test, and none since 3 Oct 08:21 Bangkok. **If it comes back, tag it like Kit A.**
- **Kit A and Kit B on the same yardstick.** The kit edge is in the tail, not the middle. That is why holding pays on kits.

| Peak after first 5x (x of the 5x price, 24 h, before any pull) | Half A: 5x coins / median / top 10% | Half B: 5x coins / median / top 10% |
|---|---|---|
| Kit A (0e81be52d5cf) | 16 / 2.32 / 7.18 | 11 / 2.50 / 9.31 |
| Kit B (89885b75fd29) | none (started 1 Oct) | 21 / 1.89 / **10.40** |
| All non-kit coins | 192 / 1.61 / 6.78 | 86 / 1.74 / 3.34 |

  - By median, Kit A beats non-kit by 1.44x in both halves, just under your 1.5x bar. Kit B beats it by only 1.09x.
  - In the top 10%, Kit B is 3.1x non-kit and Kit A is 2.8x in half B. The mean tells the same story: Kit B 7.03 vs 2.32.
- **Skip candidates (almost always pulled, and none ever reaches our gate, so the gate already skips them):**
  - Launcher `0x9b226f198ef0038d054be6265aa9f76c0d6e5e78` (hash 09cb6e671303): 63 launches, 100% pulled within 2 h, 0 hit 5x.
  - Token templates launched through the plain position manager `0x73991a25c818bf1f1128deaab1492d45638de0d3`:
    - 0402ab611457: 360 coins, 100% pulled within 2 h. Example `0x85abe308b178a9f17e2f7df8fcd4c5fd0db9e513`.
    - 5fcfacb98bd0: 151 coins, 100%. Example `0x2ccea169a95ce3f468bc0ad981db3a82e234e6c0`.
    - 27a0e402b29a: 76 coins, 95%. Example `0x9271938d6ecd713ec81b5a4a7ab9d0a5242d53b8`.
    - 0c17e487a6b2: 201 coins, 77%. Example `0x06b6c260f0739b29c4a6435f045b056617c197d8`.
  - The biggest template, 19e3e2a65bec (3,015 coins, example `0x9242460b94d1459c957dc47596ff4dc5a573574b`), is 94% pulled within 2 h, but 2 of its coins did reach the gate. Not a clean skip.
- **Other launchers with 20 or more launches** (none passes):

| Launcher (code hash) | Launches | Days active | Hit 5x | Pulled within 2 h | Reached gate | Deployers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Position manager `0x73991a25c818bf1f1128deaab1492d45638de0d3` (0a493d1af3d0) | 4,785 | 24 | 244 (5%) | 84% | 18 | 3,980 |
| `0x1fae6f162355cf77bf7f23cb919130962dad4ecb` (fa3d4035ef48) | 565 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 541 |
| `0xf4fc0cd27fc8ecf17e55ee4c3f7201897df3eb75` (e00e877771a2) | 347 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 298 |
| `0x22a2097014cd330c27607fb7e3f97901913e0a3e` (e45d48d9f7a8) | 53 | 2.7 (23 to 25 Sep) | 6 | 87% | 5 | 37 |
| 13 others (incl. plain wallet launches) | 21 to 60 | 1 to 21 | 0 to 3 | 0% to 42% | 0 | 1 to 30 |

  - `0x22a2097014cd330c27607fb7e3f97901913e0a3e` was a shared launcher: 37 deployers, 5 gates in 53 launches. It lived 3 days, and our 4 wide trades on it averaged 1.34x. It is dead now.
- **First principles:** a kit is one operator, or one tool, running the same playbook. It pays us when that playbook is "let it run after $1M" (Kit A, Kit B, and maybe the 3,587-byte family). The big shared launchers are open tools used by thousands of strangers, so they average out to the non-kit baseline. The pull templates are one-shot scams that never get near $1M.

## Method
- **Coins:** every Uniswap v3 WETH pool created since 13 Sep 00:00 Bangkok, 7,108 in all (factory `0x1f7d7550b1b028f7571e69a784071f0205fd2efa`). Grouped two ways:
  - Launcher = keccak of the launch transaction's `to` contract code (the way Kit A and Kit B were found).
  - Token template = keccak of the token's own code.
- **Price path:** every Swap, Mint and Burn for 24 h after pool creation (864,000 blocks, read from chain).
- **Base price:** price at first swap + 5 min. The coin must have at least one swap of 0.001+ WETH by then and a virtual pool of 0.1+ ETH (the A1.20 dust guard). 5,690 coins passed.
- **5x** = first price at 5 times the base. "Peak after 5x" = highest price after that ÷ the 5x price, counted only before any pull.
- **Pull** = cumulative burns reach 50% of minted liquidity. "Within 2 h" is counted from the first swap.
- **Halves:** A = launches before 28 Sep 00:00 Bangkok, B = from then.
- **Wide trade x:** A2.21 per-trade x at $1k.

## Limits
- The 5x base is first swap + 5 min, not our $1M gate entry. It counts many more coins, so the medians are not the same as V8's hold numbers. The kit vs non-kit gap is the comparable part.
- The window is 24 h. Runs that peak later are cut off, which understates kit tails.

## Asks for Supervisor
- No Kit C to ship. Kits A and B stay the only "hold" kits.
- Coder / PP: add the 3,587-byte launcher family as a tag (`kit_3587`: launch `to` code length 3,587, hash 51d0e39db2ed, 2696b754c8e3 or 60341fa374bf). If it returns with 10+ gates, A3 audits it for kit hold.
- Optional PP counter: launches by `0x9b226f198ef0038d054be6265aa9f76c0d6e5e78` and the 4 pull templates. Tracking only, because our gate already skips them.

First principles score: 80%. Every group comes from code hashes and every price, pull and 5x from the pools' own events. Missing: the same table from the $1M gate entry (too few coins per kit), and windows past 24 h.

Scripts: /root/a1/a120/paths.py, tokcode.py, an.py, an2.py (review container). Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-20-kit-c.md