# A1.25 Multimillion anatomy (Analyst 1, 7 Oct 2026 10:10 Bangkok)

## One line
**At $300k or $1M, a $10M coin looks like this: it is a kit coin, it gets there FAST and QUIET (few buys, few sells), and its first buyers are brand new wallets. A dead $1M coin is slow and busy, with old trench wallets. But the pre-registered rule built on this (hold longer when the coin had few sells before $1M) is a clean KILL. It adds nothing beyond the kit hold we already run.**

## Data (built myself from chain, PP's e1-runners.csv was not up yet)
- Every Uniswap v3 WETH pool, 13 Sep to 6 Oct 15:25 Bangkok (7,108 pools). 951 candidates (24 h peak estimate $300k+), each with full Swap/Mint/Burn logs for up to 7 days.
- v4 left out on purpose: v4 peaks are polluted (c10k honeypot shows 140 "$10M" coins, plus the no-log clones).
- **Fair milestone** = cumulative buys made at or above that cap reach max(1% of the cap, $20k capped at 5%): $5k at $100k, $15k at $300k, $20k at $1M (the same as our gate), $30k at $3M, $100k at $10M, $300k at $30M. Swaps after a pull (50% of liquidity burned) do not count.
- Halves: A = launched to 30 Sep, B = 1 Oct on.
- Result: **27 coins reached a fair $10M** (17 in A, 10 in B), **3 reached $30M+**, and 89 reached $1M but died under $3M. CLAUS `0x206211d456a3a9dbe45e13507aac5131ace9c716` and CHONK `0x8da021f34c2f2a95696c4fd842b0cd0cc4e18468` (6 Oct) also reached $10M, but they are too new to score.
- Table, one row per winner and dead coin (path minutes, fair peak, pull, wide gate, kit, buyer features): http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-25-anatomy.csv

## The path (medians)
| | to $300k | to $1M | to $3M | to $10M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10M winners (27) | 0.6 min | 24 min | 69 min | 267 min |
| dead $1M (89) | 2.0 min | 64 min | never | never |

- Kits make most of the winners: Kit A 10, Kit B 6, the 3,587-byte family 3 (it also made 2 of the 3 $30M+ coins), position manager 5, other 3.
- **In half B, 10 of 10 winners are kit coins, and 0 of 11 non-kit coins reached $10M.**
- Pull later: 56% of winners and 63% of dead coins were pulled within 7 days. Winners get pulled too, just after the top.
- Our wide gate passed 17 of the 27 winners and 34 of the 89 dead coins.

## Who bought before $300k
- Fresh wallets: median buyer nonce at the $300k block. Winners 1 (A) and 0 (B); dead coins 16.5 (A) and 2.75 (B). Share of fresh buyers (nonce 2 or less): winners 75% / 91%, dead 19% / 46%.
- Repeat wallets (bought before $300k in an earlier coin): winners 7% / 0%, dead 28% / 17%.
- Creator history: **0 of 27 winners** came from a creator whose earlier coin won. Creators never repeat. Funding key history (A1.21 operator rule) is mostly the kit itself.
- Crew badges (window 1 crews): 0 deployers, 0 funding keys and 0 of 18,579 pre-$300k buyers match. Window 1 crews do not make v3 runners.

## Top 5 separators, ranked by lift on half A only (pre-registered)
Base rate of reaching $10M among $1M coins: A 17 of 70 (24%), B 10 of 46 (22%).

| # | seen at | separator | half A wins / coins | lift A | half B wins / coins | lift B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1M | 77 sells or fewer before $1M | 8 / 18 | 1.83 | 4 / 9 | 2.04 |
| 2 | $1M | 1,240 buys or fewer before $1M | 14 / 35 | 1.65 | 9 / 18 | 2.30 |
| 3 | $1M | $1M reached before 11:00 Bangkok | 14 / 35 | 1.65 | 7 / 23 | 1.40 |
| 4 | $1M | $1M within 12 minutes of the first swap | 7 / 18 | 1.60 | 4 / 10 | 1.84 |
| 5 | $300k | 42 buyers or fewer at $300k | 12 / 35 | 1.41 | 8 / 25 | 1.47 |

- For comparison, kit coin alone: lift 1.12 (A) and 1.31 (B). Operator flag alone: 1.21 and 1.01.
- **Found after the pre-registration, so it is not eligible this round:** pre-$300k buyers are fresh (median nonce 1 or less). Lift 1.53 (A, 10 of 27) and 1.67 (B, 8 of 22). It works INSIDE kits too: kit and fresh 8 of 22 vs kit and not fresh 1 of 11 (A); 8 of 22 vs 2 of 13 (B).

## The pre-registered rule and its price: KILL
- Rule (#1, visible at $1M, so it is a hold rule): if a gated coin had 77 sells or fewer before $1M, use the kit hold exit (after the 5x target, hold until price falls to 50% of its peak) even when it is not a kit. Priced on the 70 A2.21 wide trades, $1k, real depth, A2.21 frictions.

| half | trades | non-kit coins flagged | live book $ a day | rule $ a day | beat random | worst day live / rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 48 | 4 | $5,583 | $5,529 | 68% | -$2,000 / -$2,000 |
| B | 22 | 0 | $13,671 | $13,671 (no change) | n/a | -$3,161 / -$3,161 |

- Why it dies: fast and quiet coins are mostly kits, and the kit hold already holds them. Only 4 non-kit trades get flagged in A (2 of 3 targets did worse with the hold) and 0 in B.
- No change to the live book.

## Pre-registered now for half C (gates from 7 Oct 00:00 Bangkok, no changes later)
- **Fresh-buyer kit hold:** a kit coin (Kit A, Kit B or the 3,587 family) whose buyers before $300k have a median nonce of 1 or less gets the kit hold; a kit coin with older buyers exits all at 5x like a non-kit.
- Test once at 20+ kit trades in half C, $1k, real depth. PASS = $ a day above the current kit hold AND worst day no worse AND beats 95% of random swaps of the same count.

## Already killed, not redone
V10 (buy at hour 8), V13 (regime hold on non-kit), V14 (net-buy exit), FW A1.28 (drip-seller exit), the $750k gate (A2.16/A2.25), the operator flag hold (A2.29). The #1 separator above is close to A2.29 in spirit: both mostly re-find kits.

## First principles score: 88%
- From the chain itself: every milestone comes from raw Swap logs, real block times and the Binance ETH price. A fair cap needs real buys at that cap, and pulls are cut.
- Gaps: v3 WETH only; 7-day window (a coin that ran later than 7 days would be missed); funders traced only by the fresh-wallet nonce, not by the funding transaction; half B is short (1 to 6 Oct), so "dead" there may still run; the 2 coins without a feature row are 2 of 70 trades.